MLS is a tough, physical league, that emphasizes speed, and features plastic fields, grueling travel, extreme weather, and incompetent refs. - NK Toronto
Just saying... things seemed to be going pretty well for us before the creation of this thread.
Coincidence? You tell me.
I take it as further evidence that realism has no place in football.
I started the thread because the team, the supporters, and the fans were getting ahead of themselves. One good transfer window doesn't make a solid team, even with a couple of players among the best players in MLS. The work is only partway done. We lack depth and are still weak in several positions. But the team is fun to watch again so let's just enjoy it for what it is without having too many expectations for 2022.
MLS is a tough, physical league, that emphasizes speed, and features plastic fields, grueling travel, extreme weather, and incompetent refs. - NK Toronto
Thanks Oldtimer and I agree, the window was good but late. Prior to the Italians & Richie (he's my non DP, DP), there were two/three games where we played with no DPs and lost points, Insigne injured, Bernie not here yet, Nelson was a bit of a train wreck prior has played well recently, Thompson played admirably but was learning, JMR got injured...
For the current roster, with MAK i think we win both the NE & Miami games (even with the Bono blunder).
I really thought we were going to beat Miami, we outplayed them and had three marginal but one indisputable penalty not called. We score, it is 2 -2 and we win that game. It was fun to watch.
I am not shitting on the players, my frustration is more directed at management. We cleared house so massively that as stated above... we have no depth even today, who is the LW that can relieve LI. To be clear, I am not referring to earlier in the year, I mean right now. Our Italians played three full games in 8 days, the last one in the equivalent of 35+ degrees.
The Front Office have miscalculated injuries and condensced World Cup schedules in their plans. Still, i am going to hope, but more so, enjoy the final three home games. Would love to do a roadtrip for a playoff game!! COYRs
Last edited by Bushmancan; 08-26-2022 at 09:46 AM.
Yup, this thread is a jinx.
So looking at the remaining schdule and taking into account fixture congestion and the situation of the teams we're facing I think we need the minimum from the following games or pairs of games:
Homestand vs LAG and MTL: 4 points. It's exceedingly rare to have a 9 point week in MLS (I think DC were the first and maybe only team to do it when they won at BMO a few years ago?) and since we're going up against a team in the West and a team who are already pretty much guaranteed to qualify for the playoffs, we can hopefully afford to drop one of these and focus on getting max points from the sides who will be fighting for the last three playoff spots with us. Obviously we're all going to be really up for games against Vanney and Montreal though
Southeast road trip @ ATL and ORL: 4 points. Tempted to say 6 should be the minimum here, especially Orlando who probably have a better chance at making it than Atlanta and who have had some dud home performances over the year. Winning two straight away games is a big ask though
Home vs MIA: 3 points, absolute must win. Home, no midweek game, and against a very beatable but likely still in the hunt side. No excuses here
@ PHI: 1 point. By this point the Union should already have first in the East clinched but we have to hope LAFC have the shield clinched too. Philly are running riot at the moment, so if they're still in with a shot and actually going all out I don't think we stand much of a chance in the form they're in. Such are the margins that we probably need to get something here though
That gives us 3 wins, 3 draws, and 45 points on the season in total - I forget what the average minimum playoff team point total, has to be somewhere around that, but I think it'll probably leave us just short. Which means we'll need either 9 points from this week, 6 points from the two games in the deep South, or a win away at a Philly side that look like the best in the league right now. I think the second of those three options is by far the easiest - not impossible, but still really, really challenging. And needless to say if we do get in we'd be an even bigger long shot to win the cup since we'd almost certainly never get a home game
Glass half full, it should be fun to watch us try!
edited for clarity
Last edited by DavemTFC; 08-27-2022 at 10:35 PM.
This thread is a jinx.
If the Galaxy and the pigeons win today this will still seem possible
Oddsmakers have it a dogfight for 5th and 6th in the east
tfc, NER, Mia, Columbus
Virtually identical odds for these four teams
"There are some people who might have better technique than me, and some may be fitter than me, but the main thing is tactics. With most players, tactics are missing. You can divide tactics into insight, trust, and daring." - Johan Cruyff
The highest number of points the 7th place team in the East has had since 2014 is 48. Excluding the shortened 2020 season it's taken 2021=48, 2019=45, 2018=46, 2017=45, 2016=42, 2015=44 and 2014=41 points to get 7th place. If we win out we can get 51 points. We can't afford to lose ANY points at all. One loss and it could be goal difference that decides ...
One big thing is that the teams ahead of us are just not playing well. In their last number of games (yes I used slightly different cutoffs for each team, whatever):
Columbus is 1-4-1 (7 points, 1.16PPG)
Miami is 3-2-2 (11 points, 1.57PPG) - Miami is doing better but will miss Poz for at least one game now
Orlando is 2-2-3 (8 points, 1.14PPG)
Cinci is 1-6-1 (9 points, 1.13PPG)
NER is 2-3-3 (9 points, 1.13PPG)
Charlotte is 2-0-6 (6 points, 0.75 PPG)
Since the Italians joined we are 4-2-1 (14 points, 2 PPG). Assuming these PPG paces continue the standings will be:
5th - Miami, 46.99 points
6th - Columbus 45.28 points
7th - Orlando 45.12 points
8th - Toronto 45.00 points
9th - NER 43.04 points
If everyone keeps their current pace, we're in essentially a statistical tie for 6th place.
^Good analysis. Interesting. I would include Atlanta in any analysis, they have pedigree and two games in hand.
I watched it all this morning. We got the result thanks to the DPs, excellent, but I guess my main takeaway is that we are not yet playing like or looking like a quality team. This game could have easily gone very differently.
So I still think our odds are pretty close to zero.
But two outstanding games this coming week would change my mind! If we can get full points Wednesday, at least we get the pleasure of a big Montreal game Sunday. That would be sweet, and you know they don’t want to see us in October…
Last edited by ensco; 08-28-2022 at 11:13 AM.
"There are some people who might have better technique than me, and some may be fitter than me, but the main thing is tactics. With most players, tactics are missing. You can divide tactics into insight, trust, and daring." - Johan Cruyff
We've outscored opponents 17-9 since the arrival of the Italians. We really need to win against the teams ahead of us.
I would not bet TFC to make it at 50/50
Just my own sense of the math, recognizing the relevance of form.
Last edited by ensco; 08-28-2022 at 03:37 PM.
"There are some people who might have better technique than me, and some may be fitter than me, but the main thing is tactics. With most players, tactics are missing. You can divide tactics into insight, trust, and daring." - Johan Cruyff
Taking a look at the schedule, there's a huge amount of interplay between the teams competing for the final 3 playoff spots (5th to 7th). I'll put the competitors as Orlando, Miami, Columbus, Cinci, NER, TFC. Maybe Charlotte and ATL, but I think they're both out of it.
Of their remaining games:
Orlando: 3 against Eastern playoff competitors (Columbus, Miami, TFC). 2 against top East teams (NYCFC, Philly). Plus a game vs Seattle who is fighting for the playoffs
Miami: 4 against Eastern playoff competitors (Columbus x2, TFC, Orlando). 1 against top East teams (Montreal). They have two games away to DCU and Chicago.
Columbus: 3 against Eastern playoff competitors (Miami x2, Orlando). 2 against top east teams (Montreal, NYRB). Then a game against Portland who's always tough.
Cinci: No games against Eastern playoff competitors, but Cinci is bad and I don't really think they have a chance.
NER: No games against Eastern playoff competitors, but games against LAG, NYCFC, NYRB, and Montreal.
TFC: 2 games against Eastern playoff competitors (Miami, Orlando plus ATL), 2 games against top east teams (MTL, Philly). Then LAG.
Best case is a bunch of draws in the Eastern conference clashes or one team just wins out every game to bump others down - Columbus going on a run would maybe be best case to knock Miami and Orlando out of it, especially if we take care of business against them too.
Yeah, form. Often the club in question, yes, gets the breaks, but also there’s a certain stable drive happening. We’ve yet to field our best eleven and the bench is thin, players new to the league or too young, keeper shaky, etc. We could certainly pull it off but so far it’s looking like we’re very dependant on what happens with the other six clubs we’re in the running with.
Last edited by los sonadores; 08-28-2022 at 05:00 PM.