That first chart, yes. The last chart says something different, which is what I was referencing. Not sure what the difference is. Looks like it's draft seed.Originally Posted by Graeme
That first chart, yes. The last chart says something different, which is what I was referencing. Not sure what the difference is. Looks like it's draft seed.
Road Games:
2013 - Montréal , 2014 - Orlando (Disney Classic), Montréal
2015 - Columbus, New England, Montréal
2016 - NYCFC (Leg 2 Conference Semis), Montréal (Leg 1 Conference Final)
2017 - Ottawa (Leg 1 Canadian Championship Semi), DCU, Red Bulls (Leg 1 Conference Final), Columbus (Leg 2 Conference Final)
2019 - Montréal, NYCFC (Eastern Conference Semi @ Citi Field), Seattle (MLS Cup Final)
He's an even more fun scenario....
Montreal plays on the 2nd. If they lose to chicago their Max drops to 60 same as CBUS.
On the 9th:
We beat SJ - We go to 59
Then all we need is one of the following to clinch:
CLB loses to SKC - Their max goes to 57
Mtl loses to NE - Their max goes to 57
At the end of the day if we keep winning then we don't have to watch what else is happening. It's too bad that we have the first game on the 9th. It will be fun to get back to a bar to MTL v NE at 7:30 to root for NE to win to seal our playoff spot.
those columns in the second chart are all snafu'd by the looks of it. The column for 3rd place should be for 2nd and a couple more are misplaced.
I think it is because of the East/West divisions. At a certain point, only NYCFC can catch us, so they get 1st, we get 3rd and someone from the West gets 2nd.
The first chart is for playoffs in our division (only 11 postions), the last is the race for the supporters shield (22 positions).
Yes, I think this is right - there is a minor chance we end up 2nd only because in order for that to happen the West has to catch us *and* NYCFC have to not catch us, so we are still 1st in the east.
The last chart is actually for draft lottery seeding.
So with the MTL loss tonight their max points drops to 60 same as CLB. So a TFC win and either a CLB or MTL loss next Saturday and we've clinched.
Also, we no longer have to get to the Chicago max to avoid the play down, with NYRB tying - their max drops to 64. So 9 points for that bar, between TFC and RB.
Looks as though David Villa suffered an injury away on international duty. With that the skies opened up and the heavens spoke
DANG...was hoping to see him & Hassler be all "See, this is what we do in AMARYKA!"
https://www.thescore.com/news/1364713/amp
WOW, lol... how the heck he suffered any injury, having only a 2-3 minute total run-out at the end of the game...
He touched the ball once or twice.
Anyways will be for sure healthy for the match with TFC, because it says that it's a minor injury.
Could easily have been something that happened in training.
But yeah, doesn't sound serious.
It did occur during training
Villa out. NYCFC could lose their next match.
https://www.nycfc.com/post/2017/09/0...isses-kc-clash
sadly they didnt. So does that make the magic number 19 now?
No, it remains at 16. If TFC gets to 72 points NYFC can't possibly catch TFC, even if they win 100% of their remaining games.
MLS is a tough, physical league, that emphasizes speed, and features plastic fields, grueling travel, extreme weather, and incompetent refs. - NK Toronto
Feels weird to be in a European style win every game sort of race.
Yep, especially with two against their biggest rival in the L'impact, who regardless of where they are in the standings will want to rock the Reds boat.
Remember The Man, The Legend, The Goal 5-12-07 and All That #9 Left On The Pitch, Thanks For The Memories !!!
Is my math right saying that we can win the Supporters Shield at home vs Montreal if we beat LA and NYC loses away to Colorado? More likely to win it away at New England needing 9 points to seal it?
We need 10 points either gotten by us or dropped by NYC.
Not possible until Sept 23. We can't possibly do that ourselves until the home game against NYRB.
I would much rather we win the shield by virtue of a home win or draw then anything away. There will be a trophy ceremony after a game. The potential to lose a game at home and then get a trophy is just too old school TFC to contemplate.
Isn't goal differential the tie breaker? Really only need 9 if that's the case which would be Montreal.
Magic number is 10, but could be 9 through tie breaker. At this stage of the game, you can't use tie breaker in a magic number situation - way too many variables to interfere. Magic number typically suggests you've moved past tie breaker... which means 10 is still our number.
We could clinch shield while on the field in NE, while the match is still on. If we beat LA and MTL, we gain 6 points.
If NYCFC lose in COL, and then in HOU on the Saturday, their game would finish around halftime of our NE game. In fact, they dont need to lose both, a loss and tie plus our 2 wins would equal those 10 points to give us our magic number.
Atlanta has 10 games left, 8 at home in their new stadium. Montreal is not making the playoffs... and Atlanta even finish as high as 4th (though a stretch to do it).
Here's a conservative outlook
Win in LA.
Tie home vs MTL
Lose in NE
Win home to NYRB
Win home MTL (this would land us at 69 points)
At Atlanta...who knows. I would be surprised about a tie or loss.
AUDI 2017 MLS Cup Playoffs
QUALIFICATION: Twelve teams, the top six from each conference at the end of the regular season, qualify for the Audi 2017 MLS Cup Playoffs.
TEAM-STANDINGS TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES: The team awarded the highest position in the MLS standings will be the team with the greatest number of points (three points for a win, one point for a tie, zero points for a loss). In the event that two teams finish the regular season with an equal number of points, the following system will be used to break the tie:
- Total number of wins
- Goal Differential (GD)
- Goals For (GF)
- Fewest Disciplinary Points*
- Away Goals Differential
- Away Goal For
- Home Goals Differential
- Home Goal For
- Coin Toss (tie of 2 clubs) or Drawing of Lots (tie of 3 or more clubs)
We are winning it in a walk. Not even worth discussing anymore, other than to say: how do you stay sharp when you clinch the league with 3 games to go?
Funny, Seba getting a tweak again yesterday made me wonder (KNOCK ON WOOD) if we wouldn't, hypothetically, be better off playing the MLS Cup on the road instead of here Toronto?
The conditions here neutralized him.
(Stretching for things to worry about, I guess!)
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
Actually, there'll still be business to do - we still gotta put Montreal out. Let's ship TFC2 wholesale to that Atlanta game.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
In fairness the discussion now is which game do we officially clinch it. Not if.
You are right, no offence intended.
Btw Vancouver is coming on in the west, would love to see them here in December. Partly because that would make the league office insane.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
According to FiveThirtyEight, TFC now has a 99% chance of winning the Supporter's Shield. Is that too high?
Currently there are 9 teams that can still catch us theoretically
NYCFC 9 pts back (18 points possible) (68 max)
Fire 14pts back (18) (63)
NYRB 18 (21) (62)
Atlanta 20 (27) (66)
Portland 15(15) (59)
Seattle 17 (21) (63)
VWFC 18 (24) (65)
SKC 18 (21) (62)
Houston 21(21) (59)
If all those teams win every single game between now and the end of the season.
We need to get single point to knock out Houston and Portland
5-6 SKC,Seattle, NYRB, and the Fire
7 leaves only Atlanta and NYCFC assuming their records allow at that point
3 wins and a tie in our last 6 basically clinches the Supporter shield even if every other team wins all their remaining games as that takes us to 69 points
99% pretty much seems about right.
The earliest we can clinch the Supporter shield Would be either the 20th or 23rd. If we beat LA on the 16th and Montreal on the 20th with Colorado beating NYFC and New England or Orlando split the points or beating Atlanta on the 13th or 16th we would have 65 points and no other team could get more than that. Unofficially at that point we will have clinched we would then need at least one point on the 23rd to do so officially. If we win the next 3 games extending a winning streak to 8 and NYCFC drop any points then we would also clinch the SS
Last edited by Kaz; 09-10-2017 at 10:21 PM. Reason: edited for clarity
Easy solution.
Play it in the Skydome.
Put real grass in for the game.
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