is Zlatan a statistical genius? no
watch this video, Zlatan explains everything, if Zlatan knows this you can bet sure Vanney does
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fKADYEP9qU
also, read the comments people are making about the video,
hopefully by doing these it will be clear to you what is going on
for me it is clear as daylights after watching this video
also, review my numbers and the probabilities in my earlier post, that puts it into perspective number wise.
ps:it does not take a statistical genius at all to figure this out