After much thought I may have moved back to the Vanney in crowd.
Let me explain to you why.
The other day Zlatan had a press conference the other day where he said the mls playoff system is shit. he actually used the word shit.
He said there is no incentive for players to get up for every game, all that matters is that you make the playoffs. you cannot create the mentality of practice hard every day and play hard every game and win as there is no incentive for this. the incentive is just to make the playoffs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fKADYEP9qU
Zlatan is correct
So I estimated the winning probability for away teams 5-7 and the win probability of the home teams 2-4 and the win probability for the east winner and the win probability for the supporters shield winner. I then compared my numbers to the outright odds on oddsportal to get an approximate probability of winning the mls cup depending on where you finish in the standings.
Here are the numbers:
5-7 place teams have around a 3% chance of winning the mls cup
4-7 place teams have around a 6% chance of winning the mls cup.
1st place team has around a 10% chance of winning the mls cup and
finally LAFC has a 40% chance of winning the mls cup.
Now here is where it gets really interesting. If TFC wins its first round game the odds of TFC winning the mls cup go up to 10% or equivalent to winning the eastern division..
Vanney is a cerebral man, this was stated in a press conference by Ali Curtis a few months ago.
If I figured this out no doubt Vanney knows these odds.
It explains a lot of his actions this year.
He knew he was not going to win the supporters shield this year, nobody was going to beat LAFC. He knew that.
He also knew that Jozy, Bradley and Oso would be gone for a month, so he probably thought he was not going to win the east.
He also knew that he would not get his wingers till August so he knew he would not win the east.
from my probability analysis there is no real benefit in finishing 2nd or 7th, your probability of winning the mls cup only goes up 3%. so why kill your guys. play everybody, see what you got, wait till your wingers arrive.
rotate the squad, keep everybody healthy and well rested for the playoff run.
All he has to do is make the playoffs. If he does that and wins the first game of the playoffs it is like winning the east.
His strategy this year is very smart. I was wrong about him. He knows what he is doing but he can't tell us this. people wanted his head after the Houston game.