Supporters Shield Race

[Ben - D.O.W.]

Basically, if TFC end the season 5-1-1, they clinch the SS, regardless of what NYC does.

So we have 7 games left, and NYCFC has 8 games left, for any combination of us gaining points and them losing points to make it to a total of 16 at this point. I like those odds. I wouldn't be shocked if this team took care of it all on their own like you said with the 5-1-1.

[Cas87]

Our home games should be wins (SJ, MTL x2, NYRB)
Out to LA I would lean towards a Win as LAG is not what they use to be.
New England is always a strange place to play for TFC (plus Vanney better not have Jozy anywhere near that Pitch with his history) - I'd say one loss
Atlanta at the end of the season is a toss up - they are the only system that can cause us problems - draw.

5-1-1 is my final thought on this stretch as well. (But, may also be 4-1-2 with a draw against MTL in either of the 2 remaining games)

[105]

Hopefully we can clinch with a game or two left so we can rest some guys before the playoffs.

[fergiejr]

EASTERN CONFERENCE	PTS	GP	GR	Max	Playoffs?	Shield?
Toronto FC	56	27	7	77	Bye. Home Field Advantage
New York City FC	47	26	8	71	Bye. Home Field Advantage
Columbus Crew SC	42	28	6	60	Wildcard vs Atlanta United FC
Chicago Fire	41	26	8	65	Wildcard vs New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls	39	25	9	66	Wildcard @ Chicago Fire
Atlanta United FC	36	24	10	66	Wildcard @ Columbus Crew SC
Montreal Impact	36	25	9	63	HOPE
Philadelphia Union	31	27	7	52	HOPE	NO Chance
Orlando City SC	31	26	8	55	HOPE	NO Chance
New England Revolution	29	25	9	56	HOPE
D.C. United	28	27	7	49	HOPE	NO Chance
WESTERN CONFERENCE	PTS	GP	GR	Max	Playoffs?
Seattle Sounders FC	42	27	7	63	Bye. Home Field Advantage
Portland Timbers	41	28	6	59	Bye. Home Field Advantage
Sporting Kansas City	40	25	9	67	Wildcard vs San Jose Earthquakes
Vancouver Whitecaps FC	38	25	9	65	Wildcard vs Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo	38	26	8	62	Wildcard @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC
San Jose Earthquakes	36	27	7	57	Wildcard @ Sporting Kansas City
FC Dallas	36	25	9	63	HOPE
Real Salt Lake	35	28	6	53	HOPE	NO Chance
Minnesota United FC	25	25	9	52	HOPE	NO Chance
LA Galaxy	23	25	9	50	HOPE	NO Chance
Colorado Rapids	22	25	9	49	HOPE	NO Chance

Some fun with Excel. Playoff column is if the season ended today.

[MartinUtd]

I think the top 6 in the east are set, we just have to wait on the order. We'll beat Montreal twice more and even if we split those points, the game in hand and easier schedules for the other teams puts them at a disadvantage.

Here's the remaining schedule

Columbus, 42pts/6 games: SKC, Vancouver, NYRB, DCU, Orlando, NYCFC... 3 away

Chicago, 41pts/8 games: Montreal, NYRB, DCU, Philly, SJ, NYCFC, Philly, Houston... 4 away

New York Drink, 39pts/10 games: FCD, Chicago, Philly, SKC, Columbus, DCU, TFC, Vancouver, Atlanta, DCU... 6 away games

Atlanta, 36pts/10 games: FCD, Revs, Orlando, LAG, Montreal, Philly, Revs, Minnesota, NYRB, TFC... only 2 away

Montreal, 36pts/9 games: Chicago, Revs, Minnesota, TFC, Atlanta, NYCFC, Colorado, TFC, Revs... 5 away



Montreal look to have the hardest schedule there in both fixtures, and number of away games. I know anything can happen in MLS, but the odds are really stacked against them here.

[Ben - D.O.W.]

Montreal look to have the hardest schedule there in both fixtures, and number of away games. I know anything can happen in MLS, but the odds are really stacked against them here.

True, but no other team has been playing as well as them lately either, including everyone above them (except for TFC of course). TFC's win ended a 4 game win streak for Montreal. Don't get me wrong, I'd love for them to miss the playoffs, and for us to play a hand in it, but I could easily see them catching teams above them if they keep playing like they have been lately. Hell if I was Chicago (5 losses, last 6 games) I'd be worried about them, and NYRB/Atlanta and their game in hands catching up.

[Yohan]

Columbus is another version of Chicago. Good attack, shaky defence

Atlanta looks shaky. Not very convincing vs Philly and lucky to get a draw. They also have lots of game in short amount of time.

[paul-collins]

It's also the unbalanced schedule and the crazy MLS scheduling that make the SS not a fair representation of who wins the league. The playoff format is better imo, although still not ideal.

Incidentally, our record against the West is 5-1-3 for a 2.0 points per game average.

We have beaten up on the West just as much as the East.

Unbalanced or no as far as fixtures are concerned, this team, should it win the SS, can rightfully claim that they were the best team in the league and the apologists for the West can go pound sand.

[Canary10]

Incidentally, our record against the West is 5-1-3 for a 2.0 points per game average.

We have beaten up on the West just as much as the East.

Unbalanced or no as far as fixtures are concerned, this team, should it win the SS, can rightfully claim that they were the best team in the league and the apologists for the West can go pound sand.

Lol. When you're this dominant I have to agree.

[Initial B]

Is it possible TFC could go undefeated the rest of the regular season? 5 wins and 2 ties would pretty much break most of the records for best MLS team ever. The games I'm most worried about right now are NER away and NYCFC at home.

[OgtheDim]

.....Atlanta looks shaky. Not very convincing vs Philly and lucky to get a draw. They also have lots of game in short amount of time.

Atlanta reminds me of us the last couple of seasons vis a vis the whole "oh they'll start rocketing up once they start playing at home" thing.

[Joe Kool]

Anyone know at what point in the season teams start to clinch playoff spots? We have to be almost there by now. I guess we are still a couple games away.

[OgtheDim]

Anyone know at what point in the season teams start to clinch playoff spots? We have to be almost there by now. I guess we are still a couple games away.

Somebody posted somewhere that in 1 out of over 400K scenarios, we don't make the playoffs. Basically, we will have officially made it as of Saturday.

[paul-collins]

Magic numbers:

8 points - clinch (We are 20 points clear of Montreal who have possible 27 points available)
10 points - avoid play down (15 points clear, 24 points available to Chicago)
11 points - home advantage semi (tie - 20 points clear and 30 points available to Atlanta; 17 points clear and 27 points available to NYRB)
16 points - Conference / SS (9 points clear, 24 points available to NYCFC)

(edit: KGH is correct, first clinch is 5 points, because Columbus has played 3 games more than Montreal and so could drop out - 14 clear but 18 available)

[KGH]

Ours is actually 5 pts to clinch a playoff spot. Columbus can only hit 60 max. Although they're currently in 3rd they've played 28 games. They would be the 5th team that we would mathematically finish ahead of (max possible points DC 49, PHI 52, ORL 55, NE 56) securing a playoff spot.

[KGH]

But can we take a moment and recognize this discussion we're having. We're talking about when can we be the first team to clinch a playoff spot.

And the title of this thread is Supporters shield race and we're talking about how many points for US to clinch it.

Let's make sure we enjoy this ride while we can.

[fergiejr]

MTL can hit Max of 63, which is more than Columbus. So that's 7 points (?)

EASTERN CONFERENCE	PTS	GP	GR	Max
Toronto FC	56	27	7	77
New York City FC	47	26	8	71
Columbus Crew SC	42	28	6	60
Chicago Fire	41	26	8	65
New York Red Bulls	39	25	9	66
Atlanta United FC	36	24	10	66
Montreal Impact	36	25	9	63
Philadelphia Union	31	27	7	52
Orlando City SC	31	26	8	55
New England Revolution	29	25	9	56
D.C. United	28	27	7	49

[Detroit_TFC]

Is it possible TFC could go undefeated the rest of the regular season? 5 wins and 2 ties would pretty much break most of the records for best MLS team ever. The games I'm most worried about right now are NER away and NYCFC at home.

I'd expect now opponents will start playing more behind the ball, playing for draws. The wins may be hard to come by.

If TFC can get points in NER where it's been so difficult, that would be quite an achievement.

[fergiejr]

Atlanta and the 2x Montreal games will be open affairs - both will need the win to keep in the playoff race and Montreal especially will try to punish us at home. San Jose might play for the tie, and LAG may not even show up. NER will try to ruin things for us.

[Still Kicking]

So if 16 points is what it takes to clinch the SS, it will take a 5 game winning streak prior to meeting Montreal the second time in Toronto in order for that game to be possibly the one for the Shield?
Would two losses or two ties in the next 6 games (plus NYCFC going on a streak of wins) mean that TFC will travel to Atlanta needing points?
Don't want to jinx anything, but the perfect end to the season imho will be lifting the shield after beating Montreal and travelling to Atlanta with a chance to rest players and play the bench.....

[molenshtain]

What's the earliest a team has clinched the shield?

[Ben - D.O.W.]

So if 16 points is what it takes to clinch the SS, it will take a 5 game winning streak prior to meeting Montreal the second time in Toronto in order for that game to be possibly the one for the Shield?
Would two losses or two ties in the next 6 games (plus NYCFC going on a streak of wins) mean that TFC will travel to Atlanta needing points?
Don't want to jinx anything, but the perfect end to the season imho will be lifting the shield after beating Montreal and travelling to Atlanta with a chance to rest players and play the bench.....

16 points is a combination of us gaining, and NYCFC losing, so it could come much sooner than the Montreal game (or not, don't want to get ahead of things).

A 2 point/game pace is considered pretty exceptional in MLS - if NYCFC can keep that pace for the last 8 games they have that still means they're dropping 8 points over the remainder of the season. I'd love to see us set before that last Montreal game

[Detroit_TFC]

I'll be in Manchester the weekend of October 15, so just to aggravate me, the SS lift will happen at the game vs Mtl. hashtag all about me

[KGH]

MTL can hit Max of 63, which is more than Columbus. So that's 7 points (?)

EASTERN CONFERENCE	PTS	GP	GR	Max
Toronto FC	56	27	7	77
New York City FC	47	26	8	71
Columbus Crew SC	42	28	6	60
Chicago Fire	41	26	8	65
New York Red Bulls	39	25	9	66
Atlanta United FC	36	24	10	66
Montreal Impact	36	25	9	63
Philadelphia Union	31	27	7	52
Orlando City SC	31	26	8	55
New England Revolution	29	25	9	56
D.C. United	28	27	7	49

Forget current table position for a second. We only have to finish above 5 teams (top 6 make the playoffs). In order to clinch a playoff spot our points have to be more than the team in 7th could possibly get. So looking at the max possible points above we already have more than PHI, ORL, or DC could get if he managed to win every game remaining for them.

That next lowest is NE who would have to win out to get 56 which is what we currently have. So our magic number to finish above NE is 1. Unfortunately finishing only above NE doesn't get us in to the playoffs. So we have to look at the next lowest max points.

Although they're currently in 3rd Columbus has played more games than anyone so their max is 60. If we can finish above them then we're in the playoffs. So our magic number is 5 to get us to 61 (I think first tie breaker is head to head so we could theoretically finish with 60 and still finish above them). Once we have 61 then it is impossible for us to finish lower than 6th.

Therefore our magic number is 5.

[Red CB Toronto]

I'll be in Manchester the weekend of October 15, so just to aggravate me, the SS lift will happen at the game vs Mtl. hashtag all about me

Well I will be in Manchester and London the week, thus missing Red Bulls home game. Seeing Man City in their first Champions League group stage home game among others.

[paul-collins]

Forget current table position for a second. We only have to finish above 5 teams (top 6 make the playoffs). In order to clinch a playoff spot our points have to be more than the team in 7th could possibly get.

<snip>

Although they're currently in 3rd Columbus has played more games than anyone so their max is 60. If we can finish above them then we're in the playoffs. So our magic number is 5 to get us to 61 (I think first tie breaker is head to head so we could theoretically finish with 60 and still finish above them). Once we have 61 then it is impossible for us to finish lower than 6th.

Therefore our magic number is 5.

Yes your logic is correct. I used the same logic for all the other magic numbers but did not for this one because I hadn't noticed the 28 games played by Columbus...

[Graeme]

Forget current table position for a second. We only have to finish above 5 teams (top 6 make the playoffs). In order to clinch a playoff spot our points have to be more than the team in 7th could possibly get. So looking at the max possible points above we already have more than PHI, ORL, or DC could get if he managed to win every game remaining for them. Therefore our magic number is 5.

I'm not sure it's quite so simple, as the teams in question play each other--maximum points for all teams is impossible.

This link: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/TorontoFC.html has TFC with no chance of missing the playoffs with 2 more points (0-2-5 in our final games).

[fergiejr]

Therefore our magic number is 5.

Cool. So if I get this right, if Columbus loses on 9/9 and we beat San Jose, then we're in?

[fergiejr]

I'm not sure it's quite so simple, as the teams in question play each other--maximum points for all teams is impossible.

This link: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/TorontoFC.html has TFC with no chance of missing the playoffs with 2 more points (0-2-5 in our final games).

You actually have to go up to 60pts to find a 0% chance. That's 4 points.
With 58 points, there's a 4% chance we end up in 7th. Slim, but a chance.

[Graeme]

You actually have to go up to 60pts to find a 0% chance. That's 4 points.
With 58 points, there's a 4% chance we end up in 7th. Slim, but a chance.

I don't see that in the chart. With 58 points, it's a 4% chance we end up in 4th.