Keep Winter or Scrap Him?

[TFC OZZ]

OK, let's expand on that.

What do you think will happen if we miss the playoffs again? Is missing the playoffs not by default going to cause more instability? And if so, does it not mean by default that instability will come if you continue on the same path?

Regardless of whether we make the playoffs or not, I'd still stick with Winter for this season, and only make the decision to get rid of him next season if it’s absolutely clear that we need to. While I understand your point (and sympathize with it to a degree) I just have a different perspective. It’s five games into the season, and despite the 0-5 record, as far as I’m concerned this is the best TFC team we’ve ever fielded. You have to admit that they’ve been extremely unfortunate with their breaks, several of the games they’ve played this season could have easily been wins. Regardless, with respect to Winter’s future with this team, I think that removing him now would be disastrous, and cause far more problems than it would solve. He’s the best coach this team has had, and I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt that he can turn it around – hopefully the team is just in a rut.

There’s no guarantee that if you brought someone else in they’d do any better, they could just as well do worse (over the long term obviously, you can’t do much worse that 0-5). I don’t think we need a rebuild at all, and I have faith in Winter (definitely more than Mo/Preki) and this team to adjust and turn things around. Whether you like it or not, teams are going to go through tough times, and you don’t improve your long term chances by changing your coach every 1-2 seasons for short term results; which may not even pan out. Clearly since season one, changing coaches/hiring poor coaches hasn’t worked for us, so let’s change the one thing we have control over, and give him time. I think Winter’s taking this team in the right direction, and he’ll receive my support.

[123 elite]

That's great. MLS isn't La Liga, the EPL or any other league. We only need to be an average team to make the playoffs and as we've seen in the CCL, once you enter a knockout competition anything can happen. New York made the playoffs last year going 10 8 and 16 for 46 points. The Eastern Conference was won by Kansas City with 13 9 and 12 for 51 points. We had as many losses last years as Columbus, one more than Dallas and 2 more than RSL who all made the playoffs. Hell Houston made the MLS Cup Final with a record of 12 9 and 13. 12 wins out of 34. MLS is FAR too even for any one team to dominate the way the top teams in England, Spain, Italy, Germany etc do.

In the East last year, outside of the two worst teams (us and New England), the goal differential spread goes from -6 to +10. A 16 goal difference (the entire league would be +20 to -20 (40 total. LA and Seattle were +20/19 respectively, no-one else was above +10)). Knock the bottom 2 clubs out of the EPL and the goal differential spread goes from -29 to +58 (87 total). In Serie A with the bottom 2 teams lobbed off is -15 to +36 (51)*. In Spain it's -30 to +78. (98). In Germany its -30 to 49 (79).


*Serie A is much more competative than I'd have thought. Outside of Juve and Milan and the 2 worst clubs they have MLS type splits. I guess that explains how Udineze and Napoli have been so competative this year


Edit: used the wrong numbers for Spain and Germany. Fixed

I'm not saying that MLS is La Liga or even the SPL. I am just highlighting that 27.7% of the points available would get you relegated in those leagues and i am pretty sure that if i checked for Seria C or Scottish league division2 or the Minnesota under 12s girls league that the same would apply. And MLS is a pretty even playing field where Toronto has significantly more financial clout than most teams but in that set up, with Winter's team, has produced results that would have them proportionally almost bottom of every league there is.

[123 elite]

and 51 or 49 points out of a pssible 102 is about 48% of teh available which while being low is almost double 27.7%.

[Roogsy]

Winter is paid to bring results first and foremost. If using a particular system is one element meant to bring those results, fine. But you can't sit back and say "I can't get results because I'm told to use a system by a guy no longer here. "

If 4-3-3 is a must, adjust it to your rosters capabilities like KC have.

[Waggy]

I'm not saying that MLS is La Liga or even the SPL. I am just highlighting that 27.7% of the points available would get you relegated in those leagues and i am pretty sure that if i checked for Seria C or Scottish league division2 or the Minnesota under 12s girls league that the same would apply. And MLS is a pretty even playing field where Toronto has significantly more financial clout than most teams but in that set up, with Winter's team, has produced results that would have them proportionally almost bottom of every league there is.

So you're comparing Toronto FC's win ratio in the Winter era (including CCL) to other teams point ratio in MLS? We had 15 league draws last year. Think they count for something. Out of 34 league games we got results in 21. Kansas City had 25 out of 34. We had .97 points per game, they had 1.5. That's not exactly unfix-able, and certainly not far away. We just need to turn some draws into wins and some loses into draws. Not many, we're talking about swinging 5 games last year, by a single goal for or against.

Edit: Columbus made the playoffs with points in 21 games. Dallas had points in 22 (and was 4th in the league table), Salt Lake in 23 (and was 3rd in the league table)

[Oldtimer]

Winter is paid to bring results first and foremost.

I've never believed that to be true. He was brought in to bring in a unified vision from academy to first team. We would like him to get short term results as well, but that's not why he was hired.

[123 elite]

So you're comparing Toronto FC's win ratio in the Winter era (including CCL) to other teams point ratio in MLS? We had 15 league draws last year. Think they count for something. Out of 34 league games we got results in 21. Kansas City had 25 out of 34. We had .97 points per game, they had 1.5. That's not exactly unfix-able, and certainly not far away. We just need to turn some draws into wins and some loses into draws. Not many, we're talking about swinging 5 games last year, by a single goal for or against.

Edit: Columbus made the playoffs with points in 21 games. Dallas had points in 22 (and was 4th in the league table), Salt Lake in 23 (and was 3rd in the league table)

I was comparing his points ratio wins AND draws. People keep saying he should be measured on HIS team which they mean the mid July post Frings arrival. So in that time he has won 3 drawn 6 and lost 9. Thats a pretty good measurement. I don't count CCL games because its not a true measure of his performance in much the same way as Birmingham city or Arsenals season cannot be measured on the league cup final result. Cups are a different animal. Birmingham City's current position is because they weren't good enough last year. Cup or no cup.. I would concede that you could add in the CCL results against Dallas and LA since they are MLS teams which boosts his numbers and i do accept that the 18 games (or 22 for dallas/LA) do not include all of the teams in the MLS yet but we are talking 1 team.... Vancouver. So counting LA and Dallas as then its 22 points out of 66 which 33% of points available. Thats 'Winters team' tested against every MLS side bar Vancouver. Yes its not unfixable but so far this season its not exactly going in the right direction. And based on the current league positions of the 5 teams played then we have bigger mountains yet to climb.

[Roogsy]

I've never believed that to be true. He was brought in to bring in a unified vision from academy to first team. We would like him to get short term results as well, but that's not why he was hired.

Then he shouldn't have been hired as the coach, he should be the technical director, GM, President. Anything else. And have someone else coach the first team to results.

The job of a manager is results OT...period. Nothing else should come before that. Philosophy, style, long-term development...that is the job of other people, not the manager of the senior team and if that is what he was brought in to do, they gave him the wrong position.

[Canary10]

^ First of all I don't agree he wasn't hired to get results. No manager is hird to not win. But I don't agree with your comments either Roogsy. The manager sets the direction of the entire club in terms of how the football is played.

[Beach_Red]

Then he shouldn't have been hired as the coach, he should be the technical director, GM, President. Anything else. And have someone else coach the first team to results.

The job of a manager is results OT...period. Nothing else should come before that. Philosophy, style, long-term development...that is the job of other people, not the manager of the senior team and if that is what he was brought in to do, they gave him the wrong position.

If that's what he was brought in to do it is as poor a decision as hiring Mo to build the team from scratch. Maybe Winter is perfect for such a big job and did really, really well in the interview, far better than the other candidates... were there other people even considered?

What they're asking Winter to do here, apparently, seems too big a job for a guy on a three year contract in middle management. What's described here, overseeing everything and bringing in a "culture" would be the job of a team president, woldn't it, someone who has run an entire organization before? And building the whole thing is different again from running it and might be even tougher in these circumstances. Instead they've got Winter and Mariner and other management left over from the previous regime and who is actually making which decisions?

This looks like another time they've brought in someone with little experience and given him too much to do so he'll be easy for upper management to control and never be threatened by him. Senior jobs safe all around. Again.

I sure hope they got lucky with Winter and it works out great. I hoped that about Mo, too.

[brad]

I've never believed that to be true. He was brought in to bring in a unified vision from academy to first team. We would like him to get short term results as well, but that's not why he was hired.

What we were told when he was brought in - year one and two - playoffs were a target. Year 3 winning the MLS cup was the target. That is pretty short tem IMHO.

[brad]

If that's what he was brought in to do it is as poor a decision as hiring Mo to build the team from scratch. Maybe Winter is perfect for such a big job and did really, really well in the interview, far better than the other candidates... were there other people even considered?

What they're asking Winter to do here, apparently, seems too big a job for a guy on a three year contract in middle management. What's described here, overseeing everything and bringing in a "culture" would be the job of a team president, woldn't it, someone who has run an entire organization before? And building the whole thing is different again from running it and might be even tougher in these circumstances. Instead they've got Winter and Mariner and other management left over from the previous regime and who is actually making which decisions?

This looks like another time they've brought in someone with little experience and given him too much to do so he'll be easy for upper management to control and never be threatened by him. Senior jobs safe all around. Again.

I sure hope they got lucky with Winter and it works out great. I hoped that about Mo, too.

QFT. Can't imagine how anyone wouldn't agree.

[Oldtimer]

The job of a manager is results OT...period. Nothing else should come before that.

I don't disagree there... I'm just saying that the real reason the ML$E suits brought him in (as opposed to what they told the fans) is something different. Not that they don't want to win, but that's not the number 1 priority (it never is with ML$E). The end goal I believe is to have the academy selling lots of players to Europe (the Mo Edu sale really opened their eyes in that regard). In that context, bringing someone in from Ajax makes a lot of sense. Ajax makes a lot of money that way. Given that MLS is in part a feeder league, it fits in well with how MLS is developing.

Now as a supporter, what I want is wins. I'm willing to take some short-term pain for long-term gain, but to have someone like myself on-side, I have to be convinced that the long-term gain is coming. I'm not yet convinced, but I'm not yet prepared to throw AW under the bus yet.

[trane]

Winter is paid to bring results first and foremost. If using a particular system is one element meant to bring those results, fine. But you can't sit back and say "I can't get results because I'm told to use a system by a guy no longer here. "

If 4-3-3 is a must, adjust it to your rosters capabilities like KC have.

That is ultimately his job. OK so we must stick to the 4-3-3, but as I said lets not pretend that we can play it like Ajax, adjoust it to the players you have.

[Beach_Red]

I don't disagree there... I'm just saying that the real reason the ML$E suits brought him in (as opposed to what they told the fans) is something different. Not that they don't want to win, but that's not the number 1 priority (it never is with ML$E). The end goal I believe is to have the academy selling lots of players to Europe (the Mo Edu sale really opened their eyes in that regard). In that context, bringing someone in from Ajax makes a lot of sense. Ajax makes a lot of money that way. Given that MLS is in part a feeder league, it fits in well with how MLS is developing.

Now as a supporter, what I want is wins. I'm willing to take some short-term pain for long-term gain, but to have someone like myself on-side, I have to be convinced that the long-term gain is coming. I'm not yet convinced, but I'm not yet prepared to throw AW under the bus yet.

If that's true, that they've entered into this long-term plan based on that one sale that they had to split with the league (and how many others have there been from MLS teams?) it's even worse than we thought. To trade thousands of tickets sold per game for the chance of maybe selling a couple of players every five years... North America isn't Europe and the sports business is completely different here. Maybe they think they can import the business model and do well with it, but it seems like a real longshot.

But yeah, the losses this season have to do more with infuries than anything else so Winter really shouldn't be judged until he gets his starting lineup back. I'm still confident when that happens the team will win quite a few games this year.

[rocker]

KC doesn't adjust the 4-3-3 to fit the players capabilities... KC found the players who were capable of playing it. It took them years to get where they are now.

(remember, Vermes was hired as the tech director in 2006 and before firing his coach and taking over the coaching responsibilities in 2009).

Last year KC sucked to start the season (lots of road losses due to stadium not being done) too... But now Vermes is held up as a great example of success... success that took 4-5 years to arrive at. I'm not saying Winter will ever achieve that success, but some of you would have fired Vermes early last year if you were KC fans.....

The only guy I'd hire to replace Winter at some point down the line (if results are still poor) is Steve Nicol. But let's be honest, Nicol was good in a very different time of MLS, a time when getting into the playoffs was easier than now. His regular season records were not very good except for 2005... slightly above average. And some have forgotten his very poor records in recent years. He's no saviour.

A foreign experienced coach? Maybe, but they probably have the same ideas as Winter, right? They don't know MLS. I said back before they hired Winter that I wanted an MLS experienced coach, preferably Nicol but he wasn't available at the time. But now we have an MLS experienced coach so we might as well stick with him. Changing coaches has not been favourable to TFC in the past. Let's see Winter work through this.

[joeyjones]

my problem with AW is his player selection. in his very first MLS game, he chose to put Cann at LB. seriously? had Cann ever played that position before? that was he best available choice? that sent up red flags for me immediately.

[trane]

KC doesn't adjust the 4-3-3 to fit the players capabilities... KC found the players who were capable of playing it. It took them years to get where they are now.

(remember, Vermes was hired as the tech director in 2006 and before firing his coach and taking over the coaching responsibilities in 2009).

Last year KC sucked to start the season (lots of road losses due to stadium not being done) too... But now Vermes is held up as a great example of success... success that took 4-5 years to arrive at. I'm not saying Winter will ever achieve that success, but some of you would have fired Vermes early last year if you were KC fans.....

The only guy I'd hire to replace Winter at some point down the line (if results are still poor) is Steve Nicol. But let's be honest, Nicol was good in a very different time of MLS, a time when getting into the playoffs was easier than now. His regular season records were not very good except for 2005... slightly above average. And some have forgotten his very poor records in recent years. He's no saviour.

A foreign experienced coach? Maybe, but they probably have the same ideas as Winter, right? They don't know MLS. I said back before they hired Winter that I wanted an MLS experienced coach, preferably Nicol but he wasn't available at the time. But now we have an MLS experienced coach so we might as well stick with him. Changing coaches has not been favourable to TFC in the past. Let's see Winter work through this.

I would have fired him earlier Vermes last year, and would not have regreted it. You have to find a way to be competative with what you have while you are building toward something better. But giving a coach five years without resulsts is ridicolous.

[and againg I am not for fireing winter now-but soon if things to not turn around considerably- another 2 or 3 straight games with no points and he has to be out-unless there are some serious mitigating factors]

[Stouffville_RPB]

my problem with AW is his player selection. in his very first MLS game, he chose to put Cann at LB. seriously? had Cann ever played that position before? that was he best available choice? that sent up red flags for me immediately.

That was done on purpose. I don't remember exactly but at that time Cann was going through some contract negotiations and like Nana had thought he was worth a lot more than the club was offering. I seem to remember thinking Winter playing Cann there to bring him back down to earth a little and remind him that he isn't a world class defender, that his game does have holes and he benefits from playing next to someone in the middle.

[joeyjones]

That was done on purpose. I don't remember exactly but at that time Cann was going through some contract negotiations and like Nana had thought he was worth a lot more than the club was offering. I seem to remember thinking Winter playing Cann there to bring him back down to earth a little and remind him that he isn't a world class defender, that his game does have holes and he benefits from playing next to someone in the middle.

that doesn't justify starting a slowish centreback at left back where he has never played before and thus putting the defense at a distinct disadvantage...i believe we lost that game 4-2.....

[trane]

^ You can be a world class CB, and simply not have the speed required to play at FB.

I thought that Winter put him there because he wanted to sacrifice pace for an experience defender, which we did not have at LB at the time. It clearly it did not pay off.

[joeyjones]

^ You can be a world class CB, and simply not have the speed required to play at FB.

I thought that Winter put him there because he wanted to sacrifice pace for an experience defender, which we did not have at LB at the time. It clearly it did not pay off.

yes, i was trying to rationalize his choice at the time as well, but in hindsight, some of his player selections on game day are confusing to say the least.

[trane]

^ Agreed.

[ag futbol]

I would have fired him earlier Vermes last year, and would not have regreted it. You have to find a way to be competative with what you have while you are building toward something better. But giving a coach five years without resulsts is ridicolous.

[and againg I am not for fireing winter now-but soon if things to not turn around considerably- another 2 or 3 straight games with no points and he has to be out-unless there are some serious mitigating factors]

It's also worth noting that within that time frame KC DID make the playoffs on occasion.

[Waggy]

Just pointing out that you're talking about Winter making a poor player selection choice in his first ever game as a first team head coach after a few preseason games (that Cann didn't participate in due to the contract dispute and a knock IIRC). How do you know if a player can play the position at this level without trying him out? You ever play Fifa with a non super team, and look at the roster and see a clear best 11 that can't play together because 2 or 3 are in the same position? What do you do in those cases? Move guys to similar positions that they might be able to play to see if you can get the most talented/best able to succeed 11 guys onto the pitch together, even if it means a player isn't technically at 'their position'. In fifa when you do that it updates their ranking to tell you how good they are at the new position. In real life you try it out and see how the player does.

[trane]

^ Listen both me joeyjones, state that is how we rationalized it at the time, putting a solid defender at a position of need. But wether you have seen Cann play alot or not it is clear that he does not have pace for a FB, and hence you are making a choice to put in a player without the pace for the position. It is a choice that may pay off, but it did not. the problem is that over his tenure he has made many such puzzling choices. My problem las game was that he chose a relatively defensive formation and then put players that were not great defenders in key position to make the formation work.

[joeyjones]

Just pointing out that you're talking about Winter making a poor player selection choice in his first ever game as a first team head coach after a few preseason games (that Cann didn't participate in due to the contract dispute and a knock IIRC). How do you know if a player can play the position at this level without trying him out? You ever play Fifa with a non super team, and look at the roster and see a clear best 11 that can't play together because 2 or 3 are in the same position? What do you do in those cases? Move guys to similar positions that they might be able to play to see if you can get the most talented/best able to succeed 11 guys onto the pitch together, even if it means a player isn't technically at 'their position'. In fifa when you do that it updates their ranking to tell you how good they are at the new position. In real life you try it out and see how the player does.

so you play Cann out of position hoping that he can adapt? wouldn't you try that out in practice first? and if Cann wasn't available to try it out in practice, maybe you wait until you can try it out...

[Oldtimer]

If that's true, that they've entered into this long-term plan based on that one sale that they had to split with the league (and how many others have there been from MLS teams?) it's even worse than we thought. To trade thousands of tickets sold per game for the chance of maybe selling a couple of players every five years... North America isn't Europe and the sports business is completely different here. Maybe they think they can import the business model and do well with it, but it seems like a real longshot.

But yeah, the losses this season have to do more with infuries than anything else so Winter really shouldn't be judged until he gets his starting lineup back. I'm still confident when that happens the team will win quite a few games this year.

I think they will win quite a few, too.

I don't quite think the business model is "trade ticket sales for selling players." I also think that they are trying to win... that's why they've ponied up millions for DPs, and spent an awful lot behind the scenes. Its just that making money is the primary goal. Winning helps that. Selling players helps that. It's not as far fetched as you think to sell once you have a proper academy. Most leagues around the world sell players. You only have to sell 1 player every 3-4 years to pay for your academy. Sell 2 and you are making good money.

Train players in 4-3-3, and they will be in demand. The only reason MLS hasn't sold so many players in the past is that American players are great atheletes, but not technical. TFC, by adopting Dutch-influenced play is raising a new generation of technical players... for our first team, and also to sell for $$$$$$$$$$.

[trane]

"But yeah, the losses this season have to do more with infuries than anything else so Winter really shouldn't be judged until he gets his starting lineup back. I'm still confident when that happens the team will win quite a few games this year."

I missed this. I also believe that we have the team to win in this league, and i believe when everyone is back we will. That is why I could not fire him right now. BUT, I cannot let Winter off the hook because it is not that we are win less but have been able to get some points, we have no points. I would suggest that you hope that your manager is able to get some results without his top 11 players.

[brad]

That is ultimately his job. OK so we must stick to the 4-3-3, but as I said lets not pretend that we can play it like Ajax, adjoust it to the players you have.

I think this point gets missed a lot. 4-3-3 is a formation, not a system. There are many different ways to play 4-3-3