Setting the play off picture

[MartinUtd]

With only three weeks of play remaining Toronto FC has a tough road to the play offs. Despite the must win situation, the schedule doesn't make it any easier for our opponents, here are what the final fixtures look like for remainder of the MLS season:


Toronto FC 31pts
• @ FC Dallas
• Vs Chicago
• @ San Jose
We need 9 points, plain and simple. Perhaps we can go forward with 7, but seeing as how tight the pack is coupled with our -8 goal differential, I’m assuming 3 wins is what we need and nothing less


New York 36pts
• Vs Columbus
• @ Chicago
Hosting the #1 and then traveling to Toyota Park spells an early end to the drink’s season
Chances: Unlikely


Kansas City 33 pts
• Vs New England
• Vs San Jose
• @ New England
Tough schedule with two NE match ups and surging San Jose is no push over either. KC needs 2 wins and a draw to hit the magic 40 point mark
Chances: Unlikely


DC United 33pts
• @ Houston
• Vs New England
• @ Columbus
Houston have only lost once at home this season so even if DCU gets a point, they’ll still need 6 more against NE and C-bus
Chances: Unlikely

Read More

[CoachGT]

What about western teams looking for the Wild Card - Dallas, Colorado and Salt Lake, with outside chances for San Jose and LA? We need help there, too. It is the top three from each division plus the next two in terms of points. RSL is currently in the third spot and needs to hold it against the others for our best chance.

Real Salt Lake 36 Points -1
18th FC Dallas at SaltLake
25th SaltLake at Colorado
If RSL win their remaining games, then they will take the third Western spot. That would be best for TFC.

Colorado 34 Points -1
12th Colorado at LA Galaxy
19th Colorado at Chivas
25th SaltLake at Colorado
Colorado need to lose 2 of three for Toronto to really have a shot.

FC Dallas 34 Points+6
11th Toronto FC at FC Dallas
18th FC Dallas at SaltLake
26th FC Dallas at LA Galaxy
Dallas need to lose the next two and the best scenario would be a draw in their final game.

San Jose 30 Points -5
11th San Jose at Chivas
15th San Jose at Houston
18th San Jose at Kansas City
25th Toronto FC at San Jose
Best results for TFC – San Jose loss to Chivas, Houston and TFC, draw with KC

Los Angeles 29 Points -5
12th Colorado at LA Galaxy
18th LA Galaxy at Houston
26th FC Dallas at LA Galaxy
Galaxy wins against Colorado and Dallas would be helpful combined with a loss to Houston.

[MartinUtd]

Yeah thanks, I went into the western teams on my page... I suppose I should have been more descriptive with the "read more" link

[MartinUtd]

Even if we take 3 points from Dallas, the west is a total craps shoot. I can see the 3rd spot going to either FCD, RSL or Colorado. Either way, you have to like the way the schedule is laid out for the opposition.

Anyway, here would be the other half:


Real Salt Lake 36pts
• Vs FC Dallas
• @ Colorado
A win in either game could see RSL through to the play offs given the west is battling for the 3rd see as well as the wild cards
Chances: Somewhat good

Colorado 34pts
• @ Los Angeles
• @ Chivas
• Vs Real Salt Lake
Having hit their stride lately with victories over Chicago and NY, the Rapids should take 3 from LA which moves them into the driver’s seat for the final two matches
Chances: Good

FC Dallas 34pts
• Vs Toronto FC
• @ Real Salt Lake
• @ Los Angeles
Assuming a loss to Toronto, FCD will need at least 4 on the road. Hopefully Cunny reverts to his old form
Chances: Somewhat good

San Jose 30pts
• Vs Chivas
• @ Houston
• @ Kansas City
• Vs Toronto FC
Hard schedule trumps the game in hand, assuming we take 3 points on the road you can count San Jose out
Chances: Slim at best

Los Angeles 29pts
• Vs Colorado
• @ Houston
• Vs FC Dallas
LA needs to run the table without the help of Beckham and Donovan due to international call ups. Even if they pull it off, it still might not be enough
Chances: Nil
Disagree? Share you’re thoughts, all comments are welcome!

[CoachGT]

KC didn't help us tonight, nor did our result.

[BuSaPuNk]

Now we really have to run the table and get some help. Either way this season was still a good year., playoffs or no playoffs.

[Cambridge_Red]

Now we really have to run the table and get some help. Either way this season was still a good year., playoffs or no playoffs.

Really?? explain..

[Super]

No play-offs = failure! No other way to put it.

[BuSaPuNk]

We still had a good year. We improved in points, goals scored.....and really last night if that was last years team we wouldn't have come back to score twice. Come on people this team has improved there is no doubt about it. If it's always nothing but playoffs or bust this team has literally turned into the Maple Leafs.

[Cambridge_Red]

They have improved thats true... but I am not happy how things have turned out. On paper we're a hell of alot better than what we've seen on the field. Making the playoffs needs to be something this team achieves before I can call it a good season.

[Shakes McQueen]

They have improved thats true... but I am not happy how things have turned out. On paper we're a hell of alot better than what we've seen on the field. Making the playoffs needs to be something this team achieves before I can call it a good season.

We are good on paper? We are certainly decent on paper now, but I don't think that was the case all season.

When Dichio went down, we ceased to be decent on paper. Same with every game we were missing all of our best players due to call-ups.

I do agree that we were certainly BETTER on paper than we played for part of the season, though.

- Scott

[denime]

Well ,Colorado lost and DC tied today.

We are still alive in this playoff race.

[Super]

We are not out of the race quite yet, but I'm afraid it'll take all of the faith in the world to put together a scenario that would put us in the play-offs. But yes, it's possible.

We can reach a maximum of 38 points. Our goal difference is a disaster, so I doubt we'll be able to beat anyone on the last day should we be tied for points.

The SAD thing is that it's not lack of faith in our teams ability at this point. I truly believe they can grab 6 points in the last two games. But it probably won't be enough. Stupid 2 points dropped last night.

[Shakes McQueen]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again:

I don't mind if we don't make the playoffs in our second season. I just want to see our boys finish the season strong, with their heads held high.

Win these last two games, and let the league see what they can expect next season, when all of these new guys have had an entire off-season to gel as a group even further.

If we manage to shamble into the playoffs this season, all the better.

- Scott

[Juanito]

If you had told me last year that we would still be in the playoff hunt come October, I would have told you to stop shitting me. We have made good progress but with that being said, we had such good promise early on in the year, that it has been a bit of a let-down.

I definitely expect them to field a better starting XI next year and I expect them to make the playoffs.

[Bluenose13]

We are not out of the race quite yet, but I'm afraid it'll take all of the faith in the world to put together a scenario that would put us in the play-offs. But yes, it's possible.

We can reach a maximum of 38 points. Our goal difference is a disaster, so I doubt we'll be able to beat anyone on the last day should we be tied for points.

The SAD thing is that it's not lack of faith in our teams ability at this point. I truly believe they can grab 6 points in the last two games. But it probably won't be enough. Stupid 2 points dropped last night.

It's not quite as bleak as that

The 1st tie breaker is head to head & we are even with NYRB,KC & RSL.

Dallas has the tie breaker over us & we have the tie breaker over Colorado & LA

The only way in for us is to win our final 2 games & that would knock San Jose out.

The only way we can end up tied with NY,KC or RSL is for them to tie both of there last 2 games. That would be good enough for RSL to take that spot over us. We would likely end up with a better or the same +/- as KC & NY as they would finish at -5 with 2 ties & the worst we could be is -6 with 2 wins. It would then go to the third tie breaker (goals for) NY would gets us there but we would have KC.

If both TFC & The Galaxy win there final 2 games we have the tie breaker against them.

It's still a long shot but it's certainly possible, after we beat Chicago, next Sat night & Sunday will be very interesting as everyone other than DC play after us.

[rocker]

this is just off hand -- but at the start of the season I created a predictions thread.
about 35-40 people submitted W-L-T predictions for the whole season.
guess what? the mean/average of those predictions is nearly exactly where we stand today. fascinating stuff.

[jloome]

this is just off hand -- but at the start of the season I created a predictions thread.
about 35-40 people submitted W-L-T predictions for the whole season.
guess what? the mean/average of those predictions is nearly exactly where we stand today. fascinating stuff.

The wisdom of crowds?

[CoachGT]

this is just off hand -- but at the start of the season I created a predictions thread.
about 35-40 people submitted W-L-T predictions for the whole season.
guess what? the mean/average of those predictions is nearly exactly where we stand today. fascinating stuff.

I was going to ask about exactly that - maybe you should post the results so that we can "cheer" that on for the remainder of the season!

[Chevy]

The wisdom of crowds?

More likely the result of rational thought before hope and alcohol cloud the picture.

[rocker]

I was going to ask about exactly that - maybe you should post the results so that we can "cheer" that on for the remainder of the season!

after the final game against San Jose, i'm gonna create a thread and post it....

the team record right now matches almost exactly what BringBackTheBlizzard (who never posts anymore) and Oldtimer predicted. Once we get these last two games in I can see if they were totally bang on. I was slightly more optimistic than them... if TFC wins its final two games my prediction was almost there too.

There was a wide range of predictions, from less than 25 points to over 50... but if you look where most people's predictions fell, it was around 9 wins, 13 losses... and just out of a playoff spot.

I never told anyone how to do the predictions.. like whether to say "what you think will happen" or "what you hope will happen" or "what the team will do if they sign additional players" so it seems to have been really accurate. everyone just went with their gut, whether they were assuming the team they had as of the first game was enough, or not enough... or whether they felt MoJo would sign a DP and we'd go on to glory. heheh.

[ensco]

Sportclub stats has now updated their site, so here it is:
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/M...ePlayoffs.html

As of right now we have a 4.4% chance of making it. We're in last place based on likelihood of getting in (although SJ has fewer ppg, they have a better shot of getting in because they play in the weaker conference).

Looking at it more closely, we have a 30% chance if we win both remaining games. The Chicago game, at a minimum, is definitely still meaningful.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/M...TorontoFC.html

We have to pass two of KC, NY and DCU, and hope that only one at most of RSL, Colorado and Dallas finish with 39 points or better (there are some tiebreaks that work for us at 38 points, as noted above).

[nascarguy]

you call this 11th Chivas
15th Houston
18th Kansas City

weaker

[BuSaPuNk]

They have improved thats true... but I am not happy how things have turned out. On paper we're a hell of alot better than what we've seen on the field. Making the playoffs needs to be something this team achieves before I can call it a good season.

I agree on paper things should be alot better. But hell just because your good on paper doesn't mean that you will win. Success is built and that is what they are doing building. I'm not giving them any excuses, should we have made the playoffs (especially after the start this year) yes. However being a second year team and gaining more goals and points especially with this revolving door of player personnel is a good thing. Were not dead yet and we will go down with a fight.

[Oldtimer]

after the final game against San Jose, i'm gonna create a thread and post it....

the team record right now matches almost exactly what BringBackTheBlizzard (who never posts anymore) and Oldtimer predicted. Once we get these last two games in I can see if they were totally bang on. I was slightly more optimistic than them... if TFC wins its final two games my prediction was almost there too.

** sigh **
I'm sure you'd rather be wrong and see TFC in a playoff position, as would I.

SweetOwnGoal posted some encouragement on the U-Sector board:

Yes, stuff has to happen, but worst case scenario sees Toronto TWO POINTS out of a playoff spot following a win Saturday.

It really isn't just "for pride."

Do I think that the perfect storm will happen and TFC will make the playoffs? Links to bad '80s pop aside, no. But, I really don't think it's impossible. Yes, we've sucked, but the point many of you are missing is that the rest of the teams we are chasing have too.

Let's make this a playoff game. If we win, we sit back and see if we still have a chance.

DCU plays Thursday. We''re cheering for New England.

Piss drink plays Columbus at 7:30 Sat. Go Crew.

Thirty minutes later San Jose kicks off against KC. This is the tough one, but if the Earthquakes can steal a point...

At 9 p.m. Dallas plays SLC. A win by either team helps TFC (Only one of the two will be in the hunt for a wildcard).

On Sunday it's all about the Goats over Colorado.

Taken individually--with the exception of the San Jose game--none of those results are out to lunch.

Let's look at some realistic results combined with a TFC win

DCU draw NE
CBS beats NY
KC wins
Dallas and SLC draw
Goats win

The wildcard standings would be:

KC 39*
Dal 36
NY 36
DCU 35
TFC 35
Col 34

Depending on what LA does and what SJ does on Wed, you would be looking at five teams fighting for one spot going into the final week. Again...that's with reasonable predictions.

But, it all starts with a win against Chicago.

We might not get a playoff game at BMO this year, but we have a game that is all-but one THIS SATURDAY.

We're not out yet.

[mighty_torontofc_2008]

We still had a good year. We improved in points, goals scored.....and really last night if that was last years team we wouldn't have come back to score twice. Come on people this team has improved there is no doubt about it. If it's always nothing but playoffs or bust this team has literally turned into the Maple Leafs.

we have improved...2 more wins maybe 2 more...im sure two more,
progress has been made, maybe not as far as some hoped for but
were improving.

[rocker]

the thing i always remember from baseball is that it's much easier to catch up to the final playoff spot when you're the only team behind them. when there's 2-3 teams ahead of you, also fighting for that spot, it's really hard. you need them all to lose, which is against the odds. Thankfully this is MLS and crazy stuff happens all the time. and everyone is so close that ya never know.