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    Default MLSE now - what to think?

    Let’s go back to the beginning.

    Why did Bell and Rogers buy MLSE, together? Why do they still own it?

    They both said and would say today a lot of things about “delivering prestige content, producing Canadian content (I am not kidding – they actually said that, in 2012, anyway), blah blah blah… but I think any thoughtful analysis leads to only one answer: new entrants in the TV market in Europe, especially Sky in England, had used rights packages in sports leagues to wreak havok in their markets. By controlling the Leafs and Raptors, they could make sure that a “Sky” in C anada would never have exclusive NHL or NBA rights. Further, Rogers had just bought the NHL rights for $5B in a vicious auction that clearly made a big impression on everyone involved, which was- that ain’t happening ever again. Bell needed to make sure they would have reasonable access to NHL games in the long run. Bell could therefore never let Rogers just buy the premiere sports property in Canada and both Bell and Rogers knew it. They bought MLSE to keep it away from each other, and any other new entrant, and to stop bidding wars for future TV rights for prime properties.

    So, fast forward 10 years, they have this asset and, lo and behold, it has been phenomenal in terms of asset growth (but maybe not so much cash flow growth – more on that in a second) Bogers paid 2.1B in 2012 and today it might be worth, I am guessing $6.5-7B:
    · the NBA Suns just sold for $3.5B and the Raps have a bigger TV market, but a lower market growth rate, plus they have a lot more billionaire buyers there, so I am guessing USD $3B, or CAD 4B, for the Raptors
    · the Predators just sold for USD$900M, so I am going to say 1.5B, or CAD 2B, for the Leafs
    · plus $500-1B for TFC and the arena

    Hi fives all around!

    But there is, maybe, a wee problem. The ROI on this investment is, I bet, mediocre I am guessing that MLSE “makes” only a couple of hundred million a year, 100M each from the Leafs and Raptors, plus it makes something from the arena, and loses money at TFC. That’s EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortitzaion). Something Richard Peddie loved talking about, back in the day. I base this estimate on:
    - the fact that MLSE EBITDA was $80M at the time of the sale (see above), and
    - the work done in this blog a couple of years back, which suggested the average NBA team “made” $72M (USD) 5 years ago. I would guess the Raps would be average, maybe a little below, given that basketball is generally less popular in Canada than in the US. I assume the NHL makes less than the NBA in general, but the Leafs are among the top earners in the NHL
    https://www.celticsblog.com/2021/9/1...boston-celtics

    So, say, 200M in EBITDA. But there is the matter of debt service (most of the purchase price of MLSE was borrowed, that is easily $100M a year) and capital expenditures (shiny new training facilities for every team, and …. this is where it gets interesting… big player contracts.) Because player costs are mostly capitalized and then amortized, and not expensed, they are not in “EBITDA” (remember that is before amortization).

    I would bet that MLSE tread water and that is a crappy ROI. Worse, they are seen as profligate and wasteful by MLSE. My evidence for this is the corporate hard line on the last year of contracts, which we saw with Seba/Jozy in 2019, and Dubas this year, and the amount of time they are taking to replace Friisdahl (it is 18 months and counting, and I suspect the don’t think they need yet another expensive suit sitting in the middle). If there is one thing Bogers probably think they know, it’s handling expensive people with contracts (both companies are full of them). They don’t buy this idea that you need to deal with talent 12-18 months before contract end (which is not true in the business world broadly), and they are not letting it slide, given the overall return picture.

    Back to the Beginning

    Let’s circle back. Why did MLSE’s owners buy MLSE? To keep it away from each other, and others? So now, they have two very valuable franchises, that have increased in value a lot, but have done nothing in terms of cash flow. Plus, a little soccer team that hemorrhages money. So … what to do with the soccer team.

    Now, to be fair, they have had a strategy of spending on players to build asset value since 2014 (the legacy of Tim Leiweke, all bow low in his general direction!). But is it working? RSL, a notoriously cheap team, sold for USD $400M last year, and the expansion few San Diego team will pay USD$500M. Big spending teams are mostly failing competitively the last 3-4 years. Are TFC worth more than that? Probably not. There is zero evidence that big player expenditures are translating into franchise value in MLS. So now what?

    That is what I think happened at the MLSE Board last year. A much harder look at profitability at teams, and a stop on the bleeding at TFC.

    In fact, all this begs the question: why keep the soccer team? I fear that the answer is, for the same reason they bought MLSE in 2012: it’s not that they want to show the games, or win championships, or even go to the games …. they want TFC only to keep it away from others.

    All that to say, sure, fire everybody, I feel it too… but I am not optimistic about what comes next.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    2 comments

    a) minor point -do not underestimate the basketball popularity within the 905 & 416. I would argue for people in this region under 35, the Raptors are as important as the Leafs. I believe the Raps would be average NBA valuation.

    b) MLSE also owns TFC to keep somebody else from using & operating that stadium

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    Does the AppleTV deal cut the value of purchasing sports teams for content? Bell/TSN seem to be the losers of this deal. Although the way this season is going most would have been calling TSN to cancel their subscriptions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ElvistheEvilScotsman View Post
    Does the AppleTV deal cut the value of purchasing sports teams for content? Bell/TSN seem to be the losers of this deal. Although the way this season is going most would have been calling TSN to cancel their subscriptions.
    I think yes (not sure) but I also think it doesn’t matter to TFC. Apple deal “pays” every MLS team USD 8M a year but that is before production costs.

    I think MLS TV revenue, net of costs, was and remains mice nuts to MLSE. Part of my reason for speculating that their commitment to the “spending project” may be waning.

    Only games that ever mattered were those Montreal conference final games, and the MLS Cups. Those 5 games did NHL playoff type numbers.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    If the MLSE board is getting involved in Leafs decisions, I'm sure they're getting involved in some TFC decisions too. The whole thread is useful to understand how MLSE is operating on the hockey side of things, which probably overlaps with the football side of things too.

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    ^I think it is likely that the Italian signings were a Board (ie Tanenbaum-led) initiative . Just my feeling of how things actually work.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    ^I think it is likely that the Italian signings were a Board (ie Tanenbaum-led) initiative . Just my feeling of how things actually work.
    Probably. I doubt they're getting into deciding if Pettrasso gets traded or not, but I get the sense that they're involved in TAM/DP level moves.

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    Quote Originally Posted by noxx98 View Post
    Probably. I doubt they're getting into deciding if Pettrasso gets traded or not, but I get the sense that they're involved in TAM/DP level moves.
    My point is really that Manning would never have dreamed of spending like that, it isn’t who he is, and he would have known that the sums involved were crazy.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    My point is really that Manning would never have dreamed of spending like that, it isn’t who he is, and he would have known that the sums involved were crazy.
    My feeling is the board demanded Manning do something ‘bloody big’ and being totally out his depth, resorted to Transfermarkt scouting Insigne.

    The narrative of the board cutting budget gives the vibe that they’re punishing management for poor spending, which would suggest that it was a club initiative to spend as much as they did as opposed to a board-led one.

    If the board led the Italian mission and slashed the budget, one can imagine that those at the club would be irate and you’ve got an even larger problem that the board is detrimentally meddling in addition to incompetence in the front office.

    Unless we’re missing something, I can’t see the board saying spend big and then cutting their nose to spite their face.

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    MLSE board probably gets involved with all deals over a certain amount, which is probably true for the majority of teams in all sports. Can I pay Tavares/Matthews 10 million? Doubt they care much about the low end salary guys. It's the ones that take a team from the minimum spend limit to the max that they'll care about. Is the cost justified.

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    Quote Originally Posted by portu View Post
    My feeling is the board demanded Manning do something ‘bloody big’ and being totally out his depth, resorted to Transfermarkt scouting Insigne.

    The narrative of the board cutting budget gives the vibe that they’re punishing management for poor spending, which would suggest that it was a club initiative to spend as much as they did as opposed to a board-led one.

    If the board led the Italian mission and slashed the budget, one can imagine that those at the club would be irate and you’ve got an even larger problem that the board is detrimentally meddling in addition to incompetence in the front office.

    Unless we’re missing something, I can’t see the board saying spend big and then cutting their nose to spite their face.
    You may be right as to the bloody big deal thing.

    As to your bolded point, I am hypothesizing that there was a sea change in the view of TFC and spending generally, somewhere around late summer or fall of 2022 (ie after the decision to spend $100M in Italians, maybe just after they showed up). If I had to speculate as to when/why, it would have been when the terms of the Apple deal became clear to them. Their reaction to that might have been incredulous, along the lines of: “you have got to be effing kidding me, we spent all this to earn 8M a year before production costs? I can get that showing darts”
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    It's interesting to me that the vast majority of Leaf Nation, probably 98% of them, don’t know or care about the TFC history and don’t realize that all this has been happening for a while here. Seba/Jozy, Vanney… (Heck, throw Pozuelo in there. Also, remember what happened to Benezet? They sat him so he wouldn’t trigger an extension.)
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    You may be right as to the bloody big deal thing.

    As to your bolded point, I am hypothesizing that there was a sea change in the view of TFC and spending generally, somewhere around late summer or fall of 2022 (ie after the decision to spend $100M in Italians, maybe just after they showed up). If I had to speculate as to when/why, it would have been when the terms of the Apple deal became clear to them. Their reaction to that might have been incredulous, along the lines of: “you have got to be effing kidding me, we spent all this to earn 8M a year before production costs? I can get that showing darts”

    Ownership wasn’t thrilled with the excessive spending, poor results, and the inability to raise further funds through player sales, which led to a bit of a curveball this offseason when the club was informed by the MLSE board that they had to cut back on their spending, according to multiple sources.

    I think it’s the bolded here that put the nail in the coffin.

    You say: We’re going to overspend our bloody big deal budget, but the results will be good and we’ll get most of that cash back in player sales. Then you bomb out the season and raise basically no money through sales. Result? Budget slashed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    It's interesting to me that the vast majority of Leaf Nation, probably 98% of them, don’t know or care about the TFC history and don’t realize that all this has been happening for a while here. Seba/Jozy, Vanney… (Heck, throw Pozuelo in there. Also, remember what happened to Benezet? They sat him so he wouldn’t trigger an extension.)
    The vast majority of Leaf Nation doesn't know what goes on inside the Leafs either - the "oh look, there's a shiny squirrel to discuss" approach works very fine for MLSE. A Leaf guy sneezes & its 20 minutes on sports radio & somebody asks Cherry for a quote.

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    Budget slashing was inevitable. Bell and Rogers weren't going to continue spending crazy money and seeing absolutely zero return forever. I really think we'll look back on the manning era as not just a bad few years but a horrific botching of an opportunity to turn the club into a juggernaut that we absolutely pissed away and may not ever come again

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    The tide turned when people were all drunk after MLS Cup 2017 & thought the squad were all good & gave bad contracts out like candy.

    It really went downhill when Drew Moor got injured.

    Its recoverable & there are a lot of good pieces around the club in management of the off field - better then 2018, in my mind - but the on field needs a better financial plan then [insert this guy here & we will succeed].

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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    The tide turned when people were all drunk after MLS Cup 2017 & thought the squad were all good & gave bad contracts out like candy.

    It really went downhill when Drew Moor got injured.

    Its recoverable & there are a lot of good pieces around the club in management of the off field - better then 2018, in my mind - but the on field needs a better financial plan then [insert this guy here & we will succeed].
    You may be the only poster on this forum who believes our upper management is better now than in 2018 but I do appreciate your consistency!

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    Quote Originally Posted by JoesphNdo View Post
    Budget slashing was inevitable. Bell and Rogers weren't going to continue spending crazy money and seeing absolutely zero return forever. I really think we'll look back on the manning era as not just a bad few years but a horrific botching of an opportunity to turn the club into a juggernaut that we absolutely pissed away and may not ever come again
    Sadly I completely agree with the bolded part.

    Once upon a time... (looks now like ages ago)... we were thinking, and the general talk was about TFC becoming a perennial force, always a contender in MLS and North America, becoming a brand known and respected even worldwide.

    Were we stand now about all of this?

    PS: It's a lot more than just a bad "few" years.

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    Last edited by Mr. Inbetween; 05-23-2023 at 05:45 AM.

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    ^I think a bunch of the reporting around Dubas' feeling “interference” and wanting “autonomy” is kind of bizarre. Dubas got the job when he was 32. Of course he didn’t have autonomy. Plus it's missing the point, and sowing the seeds for further problems at MLSE when they make future GM decisions , imho.

    Every team in every league has owners, and every GM will have to clear major decisions with their owners. We don’t want “autonomy” to be an objective. Frankly, that may well be a problem with Manning, he may have too much autonomy

    The real questions - given that ownership is always involved: Is the budget high enough? (Clearly not the problem at MLSE, historically.) Do the owners help or hurt? Do they have domain expertise? Do they know how to be good owners?
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by JoesphNdo View Post
    Budget slashing was inevitable. Bell and Rogers weren't going to continue spending crazy money and seeing absolutely zero return forever. I really think we'll look back on the manning era as not just a bad few years but a horrific botching of an opportunity to turn the club into a juggernaut that we absolutely pissed away and may not ever come again
    I cannot even imagine what people say to the Bogers guys about Insigne, and what they must feel, and what their reaction must be.

    This isn’t paying $77M for Tavares and having the last 2-3 years look bad. I mean, similar guys to Insigne cost other MLS teams $10-15M. If we really did give him $70M, it's one of the worst contracts in world history in any sport.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    I doubt that the MLSE board originated the current Bloody Big Deal. They may have told Manning to "do something" to stir up the interest in the team heading towards the World Cup 2026, but I see no reason to doubt his account that he came up with the idea of hiring a big name Italian and pitched it to the board. As with the previous Bloody Big Deal its been a big disaster.
    They probably would have done better to let BB build a team that plays his way out of standard MLS pieces and offer $1 hot dogs instead from the budget. Not that BB is the ideal manager, but he would have been able to build in some depth.
    Last edited by Oldtimer; 05-23-2023 at 06:54 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JoesphNdo View Post
    You may be the only poster on this forum who believes our upper management is better now than in 2018 but I do appreciate your consistency!
    Off field management is better - the talents handling & the on field has issues now. But the structure around the team has gotten better since 2018.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    Off field management is better - the talents handling & the on field has issues now. But the structure around the team has gotten better since 2018.
    If it has they've been pretty subtle about it because it certainly isn't reflected in anything we can see. Results, performance, decisions - anything

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    Larry Tanenbaum close to selling some of MLSE to an Ontario pension plan: report. The valuation of $8 Billion is an interesting one, more than I would have thought. The dynamic of the deal with OMERS taking a stake. Both Bell and Rogers have first right of refusal, but would one of the two Telcoms having a bigger stake than than other go against what their purpose was in originally forming this unholy alliance. Would it be a prelude to the one with less shares exiting. OMERS would have a very different idea of how things should be done ie spending piles on money of expensive DPs will little or no return on them. OMERS like Teachers was is about maximizing their return. I guess it would also come down to how much of stake are we talking about here.

    Larry Tanenbaum close to selling some of MLSE to an Ontario pension plan: report | CityNews Toronto

    Remember The Man, The Legend, The Goal 5-12-07 and All That #9 Left On The Pitch, Thanks For The Memories !!!

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    Interesting listen/watch by SportiCast from Sportico on Messi details, as well as, sport franchise valuations and current on-goings as a background to the Larry Tananbaum/MLSE matter. Decided to included this post in two threads because of it's specific portions relevance to each.

    https://www.sportico.com/podcasts/sp...le-1234726636/

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    please sell the club to someone who cares,in 17 years what maybe 4 or 5 good years

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    Re-positioned from the TFC 2023 Player In-Season Roster Discussion Thread on 04JUL23 for more appropriate relevance...

    Quote Originally Posted by ag futbol View Post
    Maybe the Saudi’s should just buy us. I’m starting to think human rights violations are better than what MLsE subjects us to every week.
    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    Please don't go there - a lot of us would leave.
    Honourable! Yet, for me that is an odd position for anyone to take while currently supporting this club or MLS in general; it's too late. Myself, not sure would still be posting if I truly believed that the sportswashing problem is the line in the sand given the current circumstances of this club’s organization or the league?

    At my worse, full of cynicism, I subscribe to several notions on this matter... That Ignorance is not bliss. That any plausible deniability offered by shell companies and subsidiaries is a distinction without a difference. That ethicality is antithesis to the essentials of the corporation; it is predominantly motivated or driven by the bottom line and any stretch of legality. And that the colour of money more often than not welcomes strange bedfellows. In the layer cake of the global business marketplace and it's pragmatics, any individual exclusions along race, religion, politics, nationality are meaningless, unsustainable and fleeting.

    So, IIUC, I hope all will realize that MLSE major shareholder Bell Canada is a subsidiary of BCE which in turn is a major partner along with the Molson Family in the Montreal Canadians ownership entity Groupe CH, as well as, it's subsidiary EventCo. And that according to reporting from Quebec, Group CH sometime last year welcomed significant investor and shareholder MBS of the KSA through the PIF into their fold. Also do not get me started on the ADIA, their obvious involvement in New York City FC or their convenient involvement in IMCF through their non-voting minority shareholder stake in Ares Management Company as the preferred equity investor and probable Messi placeholder. The ADIA also may have investment linkage to the NBA- Atlanta Hawks through their financial involvement with one of Ares Management Company’s co-founders Antony P. Ressler as the teams principal owner.

    MLSE, the MLS, as well as some other North American sports, athletes, teams and leagues are already exposed and tainted by the issue. IMO, we as TFC supporters, are already past the righteous threshold and are carriers of this dilemma by having engaged as fans.
    Last edited by Mr. Inbetween; 07-06-2023 at 05:28 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Inbetween View Post
    Re-positioned from the TFC 2023 Player In-Season Roster Discussion Thread on 04JUL23 for more appropriate relevance...





    Honourable! Yet, for me that is an odd position for anyone to take while currently supporting this club or MLS in general; it's too late.

    I make lines in the sand all the time when it comes to what I accept in terms of ownership - the slight machinations of BCE together with the KSA in other operations is not my concern here.


    They own MLSE - I quit.

    End of.

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    Naw. I still think you are kidding yourself on this issue. IMO, regrettably, we all already are 'good Germans'.

 

 

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