2023 General TFC/MLS Banter (no transfer/roster discussion)

**jloome** · 02-22-2023, 10:20 PM

**JoesphNdo** · 02-22-2023, 10:29 PM

Originally Posted by jloome

I don't understand American style odds but as written isn't the minimum win $5,000 not $50,000?

**jloome** · 02-22-2023, 10:45 PM

Originally Posted by JoesphNdo

I don't understand American style odds but as written isn't the minimum win $5,000 not $50,000?

LOL, thanks dude, brain freeze.

**jloome** · 02-23-2023, 10:58 AM

For the optimistic set, the Toronto preview from Minnesota's regular blogger:

Toronto FC - I’ve seen a lot of lukewarm previews for Toronto this year, but I’m pretty sure they’re all wrong. Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi are among the best players in the league, Bob Bradley is a proven winner, the defense has been bolstered by Matt Hedges and Sean Johnson in goal, and the starting midfield trio is pure class. Toronto is going to tear through most Eastern Conference teams this season if they stay healthy.

**Canary10** · 02-23-2023, 11:26 AM

Originally Posted by jloome

For the optimistic set, the Toronto preview from Minnesota's regular blogger:

Toronto FC - I’ve seen a lot of lukewarm previews for Toronto this year, but I’m pretty sure they’re all wrong. Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi are among the best players in the league, Bob Bradley is a proven winner, the defense has been bolstered by Matt Hedges and Sean Johnson in goal, and the starting midfield trio is pure class. Toronto is going to tear through most Eastern Conference teams this season if they stay healthy.

I have a theory about why we are ranked so low in so many of the MLS writers' predictions.

I think the league is generally pissed about the Insigne signing (and to a lesser extent Berna), especially the amount of money. Less so about the gate-boosting potential obviously. It goes against the prevailing ideas about MLS that we're a selling league of top level youth talent from North America and South America and the whole idea of being able to buy a winner that the salary cap and stupid league mechanisms like TAM and GAM are meant to stop.

So I think there is an unwritten rule amongst the writers that you slam our prospects for this year. I mean, 13th out of 15 teams in the East? I just don't see that as being any kind of evidence-based prediction. And interestingly it was the league staff writers, not the former players, who were consistently downplaying our chances.

Just a theory.

**jloome** · 02-23-2023, 11:45 AM

Originally Posted by Canary10

I have a theory about why we are ranked so low in so many of the MLS writers' predictions.

I think the league is generally pissed about the Insigne signing (and to a lesser extent Berna), especially the amount of money. Less so about the gate-boosting potential obviously. It goes against the prevailing ideas about MLS that we're a selling league of top level youth talent from North America and South America and the whole idea of being able to buy a winner that the salary cap and stupid league mechanisms like TAM and GAM are meant to stop.

So I think there is an unwritten rule amongst the writers that you slam our prospects for this year. I mean, 13th out of 15 teams in the East? I just don't see that as being any kind of evidence-based prediction. And interestingly it was the league staff writers, not the former players, who were consistently downplaying our chances.

Just a theory.

Having read their collective stuff on the same league-owned site for fifteen years, I'd go a step further and say Americans are so ingrainly biased against anything that isn't American that getting a fair shake, as a team, on that site has always been impossible for TFC.

Usually, it's just dismissiveness , but sometimes -- like the treble year, when their power poll had us third at one point -- it's waffling somewhere between wilful delusion and malice. I'd say it bleeds into multiple aspects of the game there, including officiating and roster building. Whereas, generally, Canadians are so over-the-top in their attempts to be fair, the average Canadian official expressing bias will do it at the cost of the Canadian side.

The fact that Insigne doesn't make ANY of their lists for the seaosn -- MVP, surprise candidate, newcomer (he still qualifies ) -- is just basely stupid.

I think what irritates me most is that they radiate confident expertise, paritcularly Doyle and Gass, and yet they have no real qualifying background that's any greater than the minor soccer careers of a million other fans. And it shows, as they're frequently out to lunch tactically, and particularly when discussing other leagues.

Maybe I'm wrong and it's a penny ante tactic, but I'd assume the Italians have some pride, and I'd show them all that shit. "Look: they think you're a washed-up has-been who came here to retire."

**TheGoodson** · 02-23-2023, 12:15 PM

That’s amercian arrogance at its finest

same goes with the USMNT they think they deserve to be considered a power when they are average at best

**ag futbol** · 02-23-2023, 12:29 PM

Originally Posted by TheGoodson

That’s amercian arrogance at its finest

same goes with the USMNT they think they deserve to be considered a power when they are average at best

There’s something about American exceptionalism where rational thought stops functioning in light of overwhelming evidence of not being the best of something.

It is hilarious to watch it in action at times.

All and all, I do like our American friends but they do have their quirks and introspection has never been their strong suit, lol.

**JoesphNdo** · 02-23-2023, 12:32 PM

Before getting conspiratorial, I'd point out again that the bookmakers also don't think much of us. If their odds were so easily skewed by such things we could all quit out jobs and make a living sports betting. They are usually always accurate (As accurate as guesses can be, naturally) and fair in their assessments, as they'd be bankrupt if they weren't, so I wouldn't assume there's any anti TFC conspiracies here. We seem to be viewed by all neutral parties as not completely out of it, but reasonable long shots to compete and win the cup this year.

13th in the east predictions are a little much, but I don't think it's some anti TFC agenda to put is middle of the pack on the balance of probability while saying that there's a chance it all clicks and we do something. We've a good lineup, potentially very good, with poor depth and alot of questions. Things could go our way, but they also really could not. I personally put us a bit higher than the general consensus, but also acknowledge that I (and we) are *far* more likely to have bias here than any outside party

**Mr. Inbetween** · 02-23-2023, 01:30 PM

Seems with some 'neutrals' the stench of the dumpster fires that were seasons Y21 and Y22 are still hard to mask, shake-off or overcome; even with all the roster moves made so far. I suspect the consensus is they want to see results before changing their opinion. Still, maybe to others, it's an opportunity presenting itself for a token small wager; to bet against and beat their odds?

**jloome** · 02-23-2023, 01:50 PM

Originally Posted by JoesphNdo

Before getting conspiratorial, I'd point out again that the bookmakers also don't think much of us. If their odds were so easily skewed by such things we could all quit out jobs and make a living sports betting. They are usually always accurate (As accurate as guesses can be, naturally) and fair in their assessments, as they'd be bankrupt if they weren't, so I wouldn't assume there's any anti TFC conspiracies here. We seem to be viewed by all neutral parties as not completely out of it, but reasonable long shots to compete and win the cup this year.

13th in the east predictions are a little much, but I don't think it's some anti TFC agenda to put is middle of the pack on the balance of probability while saying that there's a chance it all clicks and we do something. We've a good lineup, potentially very good, with poor depth and alot of questions. Things could go our way, but they also really could not. I personally put us a bit higher than the general consensus, but also acknowledge that I (and we) are *far* more likely to have bias here than any outside party

Devil's advocate position: I think whoever commented about preseason odds for league winner yesterday (ag?) was right. They clearly almost entirely base them on the prior year's position. (But only for league winner, due to a lack of data).

Why do I say this? Because they change the odds every week. And in early parts of a season, often by large amounts, as loss limitation. I can absolutely guarantee you that if Philly starts the season with two losses, they're not going to have the same odds going into week three.

I'd also note most of the oddsmakers I've looked where odds are given, rather than a straight bet on final position, do NOT have us 13th in the east. Foxbet, the one I posted earlier, has us 12th overall and fourth in the East.

But when they're doing it by odds, they also seem to have a lot of ties, so we're basically in the same boat as a bunch of teams.

Also, this part of the thread started with discussing American attitudes on Mlssoccer.com. Media are quite a different kettle of fish from oddsmakers. The oddsmakers seem to respect us a lot more than American media do.

**ensco** · 02-23-2023, 05:34 PM

I dunno if I think the American treatment of Insigne and Berna is unfair. Lots of mega contract big name guys in MLS history have been busts -Chicharito, Higuain are the top recent examples, just off the top of my head.

Insigne and Berna were good but, let's face it, there were also signs they weren't clicking too. They were not dominant on arrival (Pozo's debut, now THAT was dominant). Some of that is who they were playing with, for sure, with Oso out that was painful.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating... Folded arms is probably the correct stance.

**los sonadores** · 02-23-2023, 06:17 PM

Originally Posted by ag futbol

There’s something about American exceptionalism where rational thought stops functioning in light of overwhelming evidence of not being the best of something.

It is hilarious to watch it in action at times.

All and all, I do like our American friends but they do have their quirks and introspection has never been their strong suit, lol.

It probably comes with the territory of a century of being the main world empire. A very loud, brash and modern century. They have been dominant in wealth, culture and arms aggression.

And being huge, geographically speaking, doesn’t encourage knowing much about what’s beyond the borders. Not when the most important of everything is considered to be within one’s own borders.

**jloome** · 02-23-2023, 08:36 PM

Am I nuts, or do we not play eight western clubs at all this season?

LAFC
LA Galaxy
Seattle
Colorado
FC Dallas
Houston
Sporting KC
Portland

**OgtheDim** · 02-23-2023, 10:19 PM

That's pretty standard.

**Mr. Inbetween** · 02-23-2023, 11:34 PM

Granted it is not a 'sports' media program, for me American Centrism seemed poignantly evoked during the Don Garber, Commissioner of MLS and Rupert Campbell, Adidas' North America President interview about their renewed partnership on Squawk Box; an American- pre-market- business news television program. It happens at about 2:36 when one interviewer- Andrew Ross Sorkin states... in the context of growth... paraphrased... 'The World Cup is 'now' bigger than the Super Bowl on a global basis'. At first I thought... not just now- the arrogance- it always has been/will be. I believe, particularly and by considerable amounts, in viewership and youth engagement. Then with pause and second thought... I would have to concede... however, certainly not in any metric by league/event revenue. I suspect the NFL is the world Rhodium rank standard in that aspect; by far and likely not catch-able. IIUC, MLS is scratching at a top ten entry in that table with the intention of any 5-year plan around the hosting of the World Cup in North America in 2026 to get the league closer to the top five positions

Check out this tweet at https://twitter.com/PaulTenorio/status/1628405008352829441

**los sonadores** · 02-24-2023, 01:01 AM

Originally Posted by jloome

Am I nuts, or do we not play eight western clubs at all this season?

LAFC
LA Galaxy
Seattle
Colorado
FC Dallas
Houston
Sporting KC
Portland

I suppose as a player I’d be thrilled not to have do that crazy amount of travel. But as I fan it seems very strange. I’m glad I had good seats for the Galaxy match last season. Not that I like the brand but they’re really nice to watch under Vanney. Strange neither LA club or Seattle, especially… the clubs that we imagine to be our rivals in ambition, overall budget.

**Canary10** · 02-24-2023, 08:04 AM

My point was less about it being attributed to Americanism and more about the writers not liking the way we operate. We do everything the opposite of how they think the league is at this stage. They don’t like the idea you can throw money at a team and win. That you can buy a proven still at prime star instead of a young Colombian with sell-on potential. That it doesn’t take five years of building like Philadelphia. The American thing might be an aspect of it but not my main point. They want our approach to fail.

**JoesphNdo** · 02-24-2023, 08:15 AM

Originally Posted by Canary10

My point was less about it being attributed to Americanism and more about the writers not liking the way we operate. We do everything the opposite of how they think the league is at this stage. They don’t like the idea you can throw money at a team and win. That you can buy a proven still at prime star instead of a young Colombian with sell-on potential. That it doesn’t take five years of building like Philadelphia. The American thing might be an aspect of it but not my main point. They want our approach to fail.

Who is they? Because I'd strongly think that the other owners in the league love to see us pump out own money into players who draw ticket sales and views into the league. MLS front office definitely loves it. How is that not a win win? We spend the money they reap some reward for free. And we don't even dominate the league as a result! We're hardly the only ones doing it, too. Still plenty of examples of high paid players in the league with name value and no resale value.

Nobody loses when we sign insigine. In fact everyone wins and the rest of the owners win on our dime.

If it's the writers, I also don't see it. Most are essentially the marketing arm of the league and the league absolutely loves marketing it's big, recognizable names. I'd say the writers hate the cheap but effective owners the most

**Canary10** · 02-24-2023, 08:22 AM

Originally Posted by JoesphNdo

Who is they? Because I'd strongly think that the other owners in the league love to see us pump out own money into players who draw ticket sales and views into the league. MLS front office definitely loves it. How is that not a win win? We spend the money they reap some reward for free. And we don't even dominate the league as a result! We're hardly the only ones doing it, too. Still plenty of examples of high paid players in the league with name value and no resale value.

Nobody loses when we sign insigine. In fact everyone wins and the rest of the owners win on our dime

The MLS league writers - Bogert, Doyle, those kinds of guys. There was a guy who used to work in the league offices who has been all over social media talking about how Insigne is and will be a failure. I think that’s the attitude those writers have. The owners are different and as I said in my original post they don’t mind bringing those players into the league from a business perspective. But on a competition perspective they want it to fail too.

**OgtheDim** · 02-24-2023, 08:24 AM

More then one owner has gone off indicating that the way we spend money is not what they would prefer as it puts pressure on them all to spend money. Vancouver is an example of that.

The league's rules vis-a-vis the 3rd DP specifically make it difficult to get more then 2 DP's without going down the young guy route - this is what the league wants.

So, yes, most of the league do want us to fail - exceptions would by NYC & LAFC & Miami.

**Bushmancan** · 02-24-2023, 08:26 AM

Originally Posted by los sonadores

I suppose as a player I’d be thrilled not to have do that crazy amount of travel. But as I fan it seems very strange. I’m glad I had good seats for the Galaxy match last season. Not that I like the brand but they’re really nice to watch under Vanney. Strange neither LA club or Seattle, especially… the clubs that we imagine to be our rivals in ambition, overall budget.

I hate to admit it but I thought Vanney had his team very well organized on Saturday night compared to us, LA Galaxy are a good team. I do think the ref was off, and impacted us. Less the missed penalty(s), which the first Richie incident in the box definitely was a penalty.. i do think he got the second one right. The ref took any part of the flow of the game away from us... the yellows for us vs the exact "incidental" contact he let LA Galaxy get away which impacts the game flow.

But we are going to need to play around those things and I agree LO looked different when he go pissed off in the last 20 minutes, if he plays with that passion we dont have to be concerned.... then again it was against their 2nd team by then.

**JoesphNdo** · 02-24-2023, 08:28 AM

Originally Posted by OgtheDim

More then one owner has gone off indicating that the way we spend money is not what they would prefer as it puts pressure on them all to spend money. Vancouver is an example of that.

The league's rules vis-a-vis the 3rd DP specifically make it difficult to get more then 2 DP's without going down the young guy route - this is what the league wants.

So, yes, most of the league do want us to fail - exceptions would by NYC & LAFC & Miami.

There is a wild, wild amount of space between "some cheap owners don't love teams spending big money" and "most of the league wants us to fail". Like a WILD amount of space.

I think there's likely an almost binary split in league owners on their attitudes between those who want to spend and those who don't, and attitudes to DPs etc split along those lines. But that is a far cry from most of the league wants us to fail. We're hardly the only team taking this approach and the league loves to market the teams that do (remember when the galaxy were the darling child of the league? There's a reason why) and if anything it seems more and more the league is leaning in the direction of roster spend

**jloome** · 02-24-2023, 08:48 AM

Originally Posted by Canary10

The MLS league writers - Bogert, Doyle, those kinds of guys. There was a guy who used to work in the league offices who has been all over social media talking about how Insigne is and will be a failure. I think that’s the attitude those writers have. The owners are different and as I said in my original post they don’t mind bringing those players into the league from a business perspective. But on a competition perspective they want it to fail too.

In their group self-love podcast last night, their 'experts' basically shit on him. I mean, Wiebe picked him in the golden goal draft in the sixth or eighth round or something, to which Bogert said "ok."

"He had six goals in 11 games," Wiebe offered by explanation.

"Six goals? WOW, SIX GOALS... " Tom Bogert replied sarcastically.

And then he was the only player in the entire draft of 40 or so players that the others offered no comment on, other than Doyle later in the broadcast saying he had "negative body language" last year, like some suggestion he'll fail becuase he's unhappy.

They clearly have a narrative going that he's a bust. I think Doyle's a bit of a smug little prick, and it will be nice if Insigne gets double digits goals and assists.

**Canary10** · 02-24-2023, 08:54 AM

Originally Posted by JoesphNdo

There is a wild, wild amount of space between "some cheap owners don't love teams spending big money" and "most of the league wants us to fail". Like a WILD amount of space.

I think there's likely an almost binary split in league owners on their attitudes between those who want to spend and those who don't, and attitudes to DPs etc split along those lines. But that is a far cry from most of the league wants us to fail. We're hardly the only team taking this approach and the league loves to market the teams that do (remember when the galaxy were the darling child of the league? There's a reason why) and if anything it seems more and more the league is leaning in the direction of roster spend

I'm mainly talking about the writers here - the ones who wrote their league predictions. Interesting that there was a split between the MLS writers covering the league, and the former players who almost all had us much higher. How do the league writers have us 13th, 12th in a 15 team division? That's what I was thinking about and reacting to. You don't think it's possible there is narrative amongst them and a bit of an eye roll when it comes to TFC?

**JoesphNdo** · 02-24-2023, 08:58 AM

Originally Posted by Canary10

I'm mainly talking about the writers here - the ones who wrote their league predictions. Interesting that there was a split between the MLS writers covering the league, and the former players who almost all had us much higher. How do the league writers have us 13th, 12th in a 15 team division? That's what I was thinking about and reacting to. You don't think it's possible there is narrative amongst them and a bit of an eye roll when it comes to TFC?

What do you think is more likely, that everyone is randomly biased against us, or that we - the card carrying, passionate, emotional fans of TFC - are biased towards us? Literally every team in the history of time thinks everyone is biased against them. It'd be a massive coincidence if it just happened to be true in our case. No, the simplest explanation is we're the ones with the bias, as that's what fans do and it'd be weird if it wasn't the case

I look at our write up here - https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/ranki...-tier-for-2023 - and basically nod my head in agreement. Lots of unknowns, but lots of upside and two mvp caliber players could see us anywhere from crushing it to struggling depending on how alot of random variables go.

**ensco** · 02-24-2023, 09:25 AM

I listen, like most of you, to Extratime and Northern Futbol religiously, and I find that both get things right and wrong on the Canadian MLS teams.

Both shows absolutely venerate a certain style, which is the Union 5 year build or the Montreal academy production line. They have nothing insightful to say on the Higuains and Insignes of the world, and it shows.

Extratime was absolute great on the CMNT btw. They saw what was happening early and got 100% behind us early.

Extratime picked TFC 6th and Montreal 7th in the east. I think that is pretty much a median guess for those teams.

The only person whose views on those shows I don’t rate is Bogert, because I don’t see him as a journalist or very good ar understanding the game. Thats just me.

This is a fun discussion, probably should be a thread where we discuss what they (and Molinaro) are saying.

**ensco** · 02-24-2023, 09:29 AM

My main criticism of both shows is how they get blown around by recency bias. The classic was Atlanta United 2017-20. Extratime said it can’t work, then 100% reversed engines when Almiron was sold… and then dropped the whole thing when Atlanta imploded and they ultimately lost everything they made on Almiron, and more.

**Canary10** · 02-24-2023, 09:34 AM

Originally Posted by JoesphNdo

What do you think is more likely, that everyone is randomly biased against us, or that we - the card carrying, passionate, emotional fans of TFC - are biased towards us? Literally every team in the history of time thinks everyone is biased against them. It'd be a massive coincidence if it just happened to be true in our case. No, the simplest explanation is we're the ones with the bias, as that's what fans do and it'd be weird if it wasn't the case

I look at our write up here - https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/ranki...-tier-for-2023 - and basically nod my head in agreement. Lots of unknowns, but lots of upside and two mvp caliber players could see us anywhere from crushing it to struggling depending on how alot of random variables go.

That's fair. The prediction article amongst all the MLSsoceer.com writers had a lot of people predicting in the 12-13th place in the conference. I can't find the article anymore to link. Look, it's just a theory. And a conversation starter here.

**jloome** · 02-24-2023, 10:02 AM

Originally Posted by ensco

Extratime picked TFC 6th and Montreal 7th in the east.

??

Were you listening to last year's predictions?

The extra time hosts picked TFC

Tom Bogert: 13th in East
Matt Doyle: 12th in East
David Gass: 9th in East
Andrew Wiebe: 12th in East

That's copied directly off mlssoccer.com

https://www.mlssoccer.com/season-preview/2023/news/toronto-fc-2023-season-preview

They're only slightly more charitable to Montreal:

Tom Bogert: 12th in East
Matt Doyle: 10th in East
David Gass: 11th in East
Andrew Wiebe: 11th in East

https://www.mlssoccer.com/season-pre...season-preview

Thread: 2023 General TFC/MLS Banter (no transfer/roster discussion)

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