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2023 MLS in-season transfers (non-TFC)
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MLS is a tough, physical league, that emphasizes speed, and features plastic fields, grueling travel, extreme weather, and incompetent refs. - NK Toronto
Did this matter just get a little (or a lot) more interesting?... With this comment by MLS Commissioner Garber?...
Check out this tweet at https://twitter.com/MLSist/status/1631776448628260864
https://theathletic.com/4273478/2023...rber-comments/
More... Messi- MLS sitch... twitter war... fun... btwn journos F. Romano and J. Arango vs. media personality- insider Mike Ryan (Ruiz) but is it all nonsense? Hmmm...
Check out this tweet at https://twitter.com/LeBatardShow/status/1631778459604090882
Last edited by Mr. Inbetween; 03-04-2023 at 03:58 AM.
The Inbetween... I enjoy that space between possibility and probability... seems so does Tom Bogert...
Check out this tweet at https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1631440180765765633
Solely because of the nosestretching tales MLS officials and sources were peddling re Ronaldo…
I am going to take all these stories with a boulder sized grain of salt.
I know Messi has an apartment in Miami, but … either he will be trying to play elite football, or he will be trying to maximizing his income. He would not be close to doing either in MLS.
If he wants to do something sentimental, that is not Miami either.
Last edited by ensco; 03-04-2023 at 07:53 AM.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
I'm more bought into this than others. MLS have a huge, huge incentive to move heaven and earth to aquire Messi this season. A huge incentive. And while he could earn more in Saudi, there's advantages to being in MLS that may make mean he'd take the offer if it was even close. Think of the deal Beckham got and how much that would be worth now
I don't think it's MLS or Saudi but I suspect more a decision of MLS of win more champions leagues and extend his records in Europe is the decision
So I'll start off that I don't know a ton when it comes to signing players. But I've seen people say that when teams sign a player they will give them access to cars or pay for their homes or something along those lines. So what would the chances be..that since apple has the rights to MLS now and that's pretty well the only way to watch. And with lots of eyes on Messi and knowing people would watch him wherever he goes. Does anyone know if there would be a possibility that apple could somehow help to sweeten the deal? It would benefit them by extra people signing up for their services and they have loads of cash.
I know it would probably be some sort of breach and could result in a team taking some punishment too? But just was thinking about it..also could be really stupid idea...
But what does "close" mean when Saudi is offering $250M a year?Originally Posted by JoesphNdo
To your last point - I think he should go back to Barcelona and that is how I would bet it.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
It’s SKC-Ronaldo close. Like more than than Insigne is making!!!😲
If you start to give up ownership %s you're already, possibly, not far off the Saudi money. And I think there's a lot of advantages for him playing in MLS and living in the US, too.
The romantic in me wants him to goto Argentina, and I wouldn't put MLS as favourites. Just think we'd all be shocked by what MLS would come up with to get him here, it's much, much more than it was pre apple tv. The concept of a steaming package MLS can sell instantly, directly to just about anyone on the planet with no local tv rights negotiations changed the game there
Yeh, I think the concept of "Messi is in Miami & here's the stream you can watch him on" is quite the possible package worldwide.
I think the economics of Messi are more complicated now than people may be considering.
Franchise valuations are extremely high, and it's more likely they'd give him points on income than try to jerry-rig a new franchise with investors who accept that he's worth that as a co-owner. They have to look at where the league can go, how much more it can grow relative to its current franchise model, how much global acceptance there might be of MLS as a top league, when it's basically an anti-American punchline to fans in most countries.
A lot of coming to MLS is a gamble: for him that the revenue points will work, for any franchise partners that a 35-year-old legend -- notwithstanding being the best every -- will be solely responsible for driving hundreds of millions in profit or growth.
Conversely, Saudi will offer him $350M cash a year. End of story.
He only comes to MLS if it's for romantic reasons, or Beckham straight up gives him some of his business. In Miami, pro sports have always struggled to compete with a multitude of other ways to spend your money, and the fact that much of the free-spending population isn't really from there but just seasonal visitors. Is he going to be enough to justify giving away $500M worth of combined capital and revenue over four or five years?
Beckham was... but the league was young, franchises were still folding, contract and moving, and they cost $10M. It's a different ballpark now.
So I don't disagree that cost goes up alot, but I think there's also a huge incentive here. This will be long and rambly, and basically stream of consciousness so don't expect perfect analysis, but tl;dr I think the Apple deal is an all in bet with an upside that is 'MLS is on course to be the number 2 league in the world' and a downside of 'MLS will contract from where it is today' (With reality likely landing somewhere in the middle, but those are the stakes here)
So first, the optimistic side. Beckham brought alot of upside to the league, but it was limited in scope because MLS was limited in reach. Beckham wasn't a huge, consistent, TV ratings draw because he wasn't that kind of player - his appeal was in his celebrity, with alot of people who would never watch soccer. He brought huge exposure to the league, and sold tickets, and moved merch, but there was a cap. Beckham had a huge following in Asia, for example. Beyond jersey sales, MLS didn't have a way to tap into that market directly with huge TV deals and even in the US what he brought to TV was limited
It's a different ballgame now with Messi. You're a Messi fan in Korea? Want to see your boy? Easy, drop $100 a year and it's all you can eat. Former Messi fanatic in Barcelona who would take a bullet for the man? Jump in etc. That changes things. Beyond that, let's look at the absolute wildly optimistic, best case way the Apple TV deal goes - and this is deliberately optimistic, not saying I believe it
The EPL is the most popular league in the world, and explosion in global popularity that started in the mid 90s/early 2000s. Why? Because it was the best league in the world? Actually, back then it was so far from that you'd have been laughed at for saying it was, the European results show that, they were also rans in Europe. Because it was competitive? United used to have leagues wrapped by March while the rest of Europe was trading different league winners. It's because of two things primarily - it was slickly marketed and packaged, so when you looked at it it felt big time and the primary media covering it was English speaking. This gave it a huge advantage globally. We're at a point now where, basically, the other leagues in Europe are dying as competitive leagues and the premier league is the defacto superleague. Soon, it'll be the only league elite players play in, because it's financial advantage is just too big
MLS, the little engine that could, is a primary English speaking league that now is pretty damn slickly produced. They now have an ability to sell, in an instant, to anyone, anywhere in the world, directly. They also have the advantage of alot of playing time when there's no big Euro football on, and a quirky format that, love it or hate it, is something different. If MLS can produce a wave of momentum, which a few absolute mega signings could produce, they can start to get interest outside of these shores - especially if, in Europe, there isn't really a compelling league beyond the English one for top level competition or something different. This won't happen overnight, and it's not like they sign Messi and everyone in Spain is following the league, but there's an opening there to become a league people follow and a league that can generate real revenue. It's a huge gamble, but there's actually alot of potential here and if the leagues brass think (whether you agree or not) that Messi signing can start moving Apple TV packages globally even in a small way they will probably sacrifice far more than you'd imagine to do it
And then there's the pessimistic side. This is an all in gamble because failure is also pretty catastrophic. Sports leagues live and die on media rights, not ticket sales. And MLS has been, frankly, utterly shit on TV. It failed. Nobody watched, outside of big games. They were able to get some money for TV revenue because that small audience was young, and seen as something that could grow, but while tiny growth did come they were still an absolute nothing event on TV. Now imagine they goto Apple for 10 years and it doesn't work, Apple don't renew, it's not worth it to them. What then? Where do you think MLS goes? "Hey sports media, remember us, the product that couldn't draw flies ten years ago on TV? Well we tried streaming and there was no audience for us there, either! So how about we start the bidding at 1 billion?". MLS *needs* this to succeed if it wants to grow, or even if it wants to not contract, as a business. And you can see that right now, they're in that start up 'just acquire users, screw revenue' phase. Every season ticket gets a free package, everyone on t-mobile gets a free package, 40% of the games are free - just come and watch, please!
So long winded way of saying, I think MLS would give up *alot* to make this work. The upside potential of the deal is huge, and the downside potential if they fail on streaming is catastrophic, in fact I just read the Athletic claim (they admit this hasn't been corroborated) that Apple has an 'opt out' clause and can just walk away at any point if the subscription numbers aren't what they want. Think about those stakes, and the $$ difference between an MLS that gets this right and an MLS that gets this wrong. That $$ difference is huge, and somewhere in that $$ difference is what they would spend on some flyers to make this work. Plus Messi seems to love Miami, so there is that.
So do I think it'll happen? No, probably not, still. That's alot of words to say no, I know. But I wouldn't rule it out. And I'd fully believe MLS are currently talking internally about doing things that'd absolutely shock all of us if they think there's a chance
Last edited by JoesphNdo; 03-04-2023 at 11:47 AM.
Compelling argument, dude.
I wonder if they can pull it off, though, while insisting on the North American playoff model rather than traditional promotion/relegation, traditional transfers etc.
The reason I say that is that there are a number of indicators that these things are sort of sacrosanct to hardcore football fans elsewhere. Even here, when polled on whether they'd like it -- not whether it will happen -- most fans say they'd like to see it. They just don't think franchise owners would allow it.
But those owners need to win over all those foreign fans to be a "no. 2 superleague" after the EPL. A poll last week on ESPN found 60% of MLS players want promo/relegation, and the fastest growing fanbase of any football team in the US right now isn't in MLS... it's for Wrexham, because of Ryan Reynolds' fan pull and the documentary. When asked why fans support them and not their local MLS team, the answers are mostly the same: because they're an underdog trying to get promoted.
In other words, the community structure and possiblity of greatness that is inherent to ANY league football team in other countries doesn't exist in the U.S. It will ALWAYs be a secondary league there, because it isn't traditionally American and because, without embracing that underdog/annual survival structure, most of the games mean nothing.
You can throw celebrity and cameras and money at any league all you want; but ultimately, people have to take the team's stakes personally. They will NEVER get to that level of league if they think it'll be based on uber-fans of one player. It will just never happen.
The entire football culture in the U.S. basically has to change and at least generally homogenize with football culture elsewhere first. And that's at odds with how U.S. capitalists work.
I tip my hat to Joseph Ndo and jloome. They have sorta kinda caused me to change my view of this. Joseph might be right, the business case might be there. jloome points out the real issue, which is the authenticity, or lack thereof, that most see (but we are mostly blind to, being inside the bubble)
Last edited by ensco; 03-04-2023 at 12:51 PM.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
I like this topic. I have changed my sports watching habits of late and noticed a trend: high stakes and compelling narratives are the winners. Losers are the ones where there’s a high quantity of games and low incentives to compete every night. Also places where the story lines are dry and tired.
Cut down massively on NHL and NBA. Watch a lot more NFL (say what you will about the sport, every game matters, and the production value / ability to craft stories makes it some of the most watchable TV out there and the physicality of it prevents the owners from watering down the product).
MLS needs a format where every weekend matters for one reason or another. The new setup is a step in the wrong direction. I still watch because I’m a fan of the game and the global nature of football is really unmatched by any other sport. But let’s be honest here, the MLS regular season is largely a stupid exercise now, and only serves to remove teams that are abject failures.
Maybe they could turn it into a platform to try to suit both playoff fans and traditionalists: have two titles, a League Title and a Cup title.
Keep the format, but add a second best-of-three round. Traditionalists can afford the league title more weight, as it's based on the season. Playoff fans can favor winning the cup.
This very debate exists in England every year, although there it's because Cup upsets let smaller clubs dream big. But there are many, many English fans who favor the FA Cup more. Most don't rate the League cup much anymore.
Anyway, it would at the least bow to internatioanl convention somewhat, as we'd have a league title and two cups to contend.
In the long run, so many Americans are now investing in European football that they may see merit in pro/relegation, because they WANT a financial advantage. The guys who own LAFC probably WANTS to crush the guys who own Orlando.
Financial equity was needed to keep the league alive for years, but my reading of the average billionaire isn't that he really wants a level playing field. If they know they'll outspend other owners anyway, it will be easier for MLS franchises to countenance a few smaller cities coming in and setting the stage for pro/rel, in the same futile manner it largely happens in England, where smaller clubs rarely stick for long.
It gives the impression of having a chance to become the biggest club in the world... but it's not really going to happen. More realistically, it gives smaller cities a shot at glory like Leicester managed: one offs that reaffirm the purpose of the system and let fans dream big.
Of course, the sheer number of large American cities and the relative might of the collected ownership complicates all of that. I think we already have way too many teams, and MLS would be better off if it split into two divisions, a Premier and a Championship. But no one pays $325M to be in division two.
So the only way to do it would be new franchises in places like Sacramento, Detroit and San Diego, and a system that makes it very, very hard for even ONE team to go down, likely include a playoff against the potential promotee. That would require a formalized relationship with USL again, more investment in USL with help from MLS, more basic value at the second tier.
It's hard to see it happening, but it's possible. Probably take another decade at least, though, and a loooot of money.
Last edited by jloome; 03-04-2023 at 02:26 PM.
Well, if they do split into two divisions of 18 teams, then they'll need to make sure that Division 2 teams would get a relatively equal portion of the TV revenues, perhaps 70-80% of the Div 1 revenues. They would also have to make it so it is relatively easy to get promoted - say, the bottom and top team of Div 1 and Div 2 get relegated/promoted automatically, but then the next 8 teams in each Division would be seeded and have a single round of 3-game playoffs (Div 1: 10v17, 11v16, 12v15, 13v14; Div 2: 2v9, 3v8, 4v7, 5v6) with the Div2 playoff winners getting promoted and the Div1 losers getting relegated. My worry there is what happens if a higher-seeded club (say Philly) ever get relegated on their home field, whether the stadium would survive.
Additionally, if they do this sooner than later, they can lower the expansion fees to something more reasonable to allow more cities to get in on the ground floor.
As a follow-up to the insightful framing of the Messi situation by both Joseph Ndo and jloome. If the notion that a contingency clause between MLS and Apple exists and is accurate; that an “opt-out” is triggered to allow Apple to walk away from the agreement if the league doesn’t drive a certain number of subscribers to Season Pass in a set time. Then a linchpin of a 'Messi' signing or what conspiracist me thinks was an ergo necessary 'trial run' at Ronaldo is more than self explanatory and of MLS existential self-interest. Therefore, from the business perspective everything financially creative must be done- good debt- short of unmanageable initiatives- bad debt- to drive subscribers to/past the 'target' in order to lock-in Apple asap.
According to The Athletic...
“MLS’ deal with Apple is still in its infancy and specific terms of the pact have been hard to come by. Sources familiar with the arrangement, though, have suggested over the past few months that the league’s agreement with Apple contains an “opt-out” clause that allows Apple to walk away from the agreement if the league doesn’t drive a certain number of subscribers to Season Pass in a set timeframe. Garber did not confirm or deny such a clause.”
https://theathletic.com/4273822/2023/03/04/mls-expansion-apple-tv-messi-don-garber-interview/
Edit: Addendum...
Check out this tweet at https://twitter.com/FOS/status/1633127828181905408
Last edited by Mr. Inbetween; 03-08-2023 at 12:03 AM.
Anyone want to consider a flyer for the Sept game in Miami, and bet on getting Messi…. LOL. Could always sell the tickets if he isn’t coming.
Last edited by Bushmancan; 03-05-2023 at 02:47 PM.
Maybe the way to keep everyone happy is to ensure that the best clubs from each division play in MLS Cup.
Let's say they can get us up to 36 teams. The first 18 in the following season make up the MLS Premier Division. The Next 18 make up the MLS First Division. That would require adding six teams. Then USL-C becomes MLS Third Division.
The MLS Premier Division league title is determined by the season points. The Cup is a tournament based off the top division teams, plus, say, the top four from the next two divisions.
You only promote/relegate one team from each division, and they have to win a playoff series against the lowest team above them to be promoted.
It would be extremely difficult, under those circumstances, for an MLS club to fall out of the top 2 divisions. The advantage to being in the Premier Division is that the league has its own title, and everyone with a decent team still gets to play for MLS cup in a "playoff" bracket.
This would take into account that MLS 1.0 owners have been reluctant to spend more and grow, as those who underfund their team, despite the cap, will probably fall into Division One pretty quickly.
It would also help with the imbalanced schedule massively, as teams would be limited to regular season games against their own division.
Buy them quickly; Miami is selling out games on the pure rumour he might be coming. Their attendance is up 5,000+ per game this season, the biggest increase in the league.
Telling sign, no single game tickets for any game beyond July. Got 2 in Section 123 on StubHub for $50 for 2. Let’s see. Hahaha.
Small investment.
Last edited by Bushmancan; 03-05-2023 at 05:31 PM.
Auro ends up signing in Kazakhstan
https://tntsports.com.br/melhorfuteb...0303-0025.html
Wowowwweewaaaa!!
That said, thats a big fall from MLS / Brazilian league.
This is nuts. There are far worse players in the league right now (and plenty of other league of a higher quality than where he went).
Needs to fire his agent me thinks
Check out this tweet at https://twitter.com/SethMan31/status/1630623368461402145
I cannot help but feel that somehow, some players have been singed by the Soteldo flame-out. That some sort of Soteldo cloud is following Auro as well as Pozuelo; no difference for me in that Pozuelo ended up in Turkey at Konyaspor which is usually a league middling club that every few years makes it as far as into their top three. IIUC, he is only on contract until the end of this season? IMHO, both should have found another home within MLS.
Check out this tweet at https://twitter.com/realstevescores/status/1633082779759169537?t=f-SZ3L8hIOG1mw5T_dFQBw&s=19
This one kind of pisses me off - Toronto should be in on these kinds of players given limitations
Chugga, chugga, choo, choo... all aboard? Smoke... & Fire? Never say never! MLS can be creative too... A slice of a/the club ownership pie and btw, welcome to Miami's Freedom Park Sports & Entertainment complex's one and only latest... 'Parador' Lionel. Perhaps, even, @ Vegas, baby? With Apple? In the immortal exchange between Big Joe and Crapgame... Make a deal? What kinda deal? A deal deal!... business is business.
Check out this tweet at https://twitter.com/ISWTPod/status/1633190588202754049
Last edited by Mr. Inbetween; 03-08-2023 at 03:15 AM.
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