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  1. #3241
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    xG is the new possession - a stat that half the world will passionately insist has a direct correlation to results, yet just like possession is completely meaningless unless you do anything with it.

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    I agree with Leeds from way back when he said we don't play anything like Leeds. I think if anything our philosophical model is more Man City which is possession based and quick recoveries. Not saying at all that we play like Man City, just to be clear, but I think that's more the idea. One big difference is we don't have a Rodri/Fernandinho equivalent.

    Just to add one thing, it's really annoying that you can't have any discussion of Michael Bradley without it going into the conspiracy theory territory.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Canary10 View Post
    I agree with Leeds from way back when he said we don't play anything like Leeds..
    Having watched every game both teams play for two years, we have a lot in common with them. It's just not as easy to discern in the narrow gegenpress madness that is Leeds.

    We're not SUPPOSED to play like them. But we pressed pretty consistently last year. We just didn't do it all the time, from the end line.

    We both got caught high repeatedly, we both ended up leaking a ton of transitional goals, we both wound up having a high fullback who frequently wasn't covered, leaving the back post undefended.

    We basically gave up the same type of goals continually, because we both had the same problem, losing possession when up high.

    Once you get away from our defensive efforts, yeah, it's completely different. They're scrambling to turn turnovers into goals, we're scrambling to turn a press into turnovers, then setting up in their end. Neither team had a good enough team to pull it off, something else we had in common with them.

    When someone can show me a high press working on an average team, I'll start having some faith in it.

  4. #3244
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smokecell View Post
    xG is the new possession - a stat that half the world will passionately insist has a direct correlation to results, yet just like possession is completely meaningless unless you do anything with it.
    Xg dies have a correlation with results....very strong one.

  5. #3245
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smokecell View Post
    xG is the new possession - a stat that half the world will passionately insist has a direct correlation to results, yet just like possession is completely meaningless unless you do anything with it.
    It's a useful stat, but like any doesn't ever tell the whole story. Most of the best MLS teams last year were near the top of the league in XG. Then again, so was Atlanta, and Chicago Fire were top half.

    It's deceptive, I think, because the best teams always do well in certain stats. But doing well in those stats does not guarantee you will be one of the best teams. It requires hindsight to be valuable, and hindsight, when rosters and tactics change continually, is not that valuable.

  6. #3246
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    Quote Originally Posted by jloome View Post
    Having watched every game both teams play for two years, we have a lot in common with them. It's just not as easy to discern in the narrow gegenpress madness that is Leeds.

    We're not SUPPOSED to play like them. But we pressed pretty consistently last year. We just didn't do it all the time, from the end line.

    We both got caught high repeatedly, we both ended up leaking a ton of transitional goals, we both wound up having a high fullback who frequently wasn't covered, leaving the back post undefended.

    We basically gave up the same type of goals continually, because we both had the same problem, losing possession when up high.

    Once you get away from our defensive efforts, yeah, it's completely different. They're scrambling to turn turnovers into goals, we're scrambling to turn a press into turnovers, then setting up in their end. Neither team had a good enough team to pull it off, something else we had in common with them.

    When someone can show me a high press working on an average team, I'll start having some faith in it.
    I think that's where tactical philosophy in theory versus how it works in reality breaks down. Often in reality fairly different types of systems don't look all that different in the real world.

    I would say Leeds first season in the EPL was an example of fairly average players working the high press extremely well though. They were great in that first year. From an outside observer, only Raphinha was a clear elite player. Others got the label after that season. Bielsa was a magician. I was sad to see him go, even not being a Leeds supporter.

  7. #3247
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    Quote Originally Posted by Canary10 View Post
    Bielsa was a magician. I was sad to see him go, even not being a Leeds supporter.
    Yep. I want Marsch to succeed but I'm not seeing it happening. They're doing well offensively, but they can't defend to save their lives.

  8. #3248
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    Quote Originally Posted by jloome View Post
    When someone can show me a high press working on an average team, I'll start having some faith in it.
    NYRB every 2-3 years make it work on an average team but they are aided by having a team of scrubs who are more than happy to run like dogs after a tennis ball for 90 minutes a week.

  9. #3249
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    I share a lot of the midfield concerns and would be a hell of a lot more comfortable if there was a rumor we were in for a Matias Laba type MF

  10. #3250
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smokecell View Post
    xG is the new possession - a stat that half the world will passionately insist has a direct correlation to results, yet just like possession is completely meaningless unless you do anything with it.
    My issue with these advance stats is most of the general public is too stupid to understand what these things really mean and their true predictive implications. Levels are taken as an absolute indicators of what should have happened (which is not the case).

    USA plays Argentina and Chad Barrett flubs 2 sitters from the penalty spot. Messi scores one worldly from 30 yards out. Argentina wins 1-0.

    Dumb stat people take: USA was better team and should have won based on superior xG.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ag futbol View Post
    My issue with these advance stats is most of the general public is too stupid to understand what these things really mean and their true predictive implications. Levels are taken as an absolute indicators of what should have happened (which is not the case).

    USA plays Argentina and Chad Barrett flubs 2 sitters from the penalty spot. Messi scores one worldly from 30 yards out. Argentina wins 1-0.

    Dumb stat people take: USA was better team and should have won based on superior xG.
    Bradley at the press conference last week alluded to this. He said usually the analytics guys are alone in a room producing tons of data not necessarily connected to anything, to what anybody else is doing. (And of course every team has to have this in vogue department no matter if anyone there can correctly read the data). And so he’s trying to have our analytics guy connect the data to video, to the actual game and have him more often in the room where the coaches are so the stats pursuit becomes somewhat practical.

    This is usually true wherever complicated masses of data exists. In medicine, for example, your GP can usually only read “yes/no”, ie. over 50 means you have the disease, under 50 means you’re okay. The tests are highly simplified. If you’ve got something unusually complicated you need a doctor trained in and also gifted at research. Those people who can understand complexes of data are rare, and not at all the run of the mill doctors.

    (Looks like an interesting TFC - Leeds discussions going on above… hope to have the time to read it.)

  12. #3252
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    Quote Originally Posted by los sonadores View Post
    Bradley at the press conference last week alluded to this. He said usually the analytics guys are alone in a room producing tons of data not necessarily connected to anything, to what anybody else is doing. (And of course every team has to have this in vogue department no matter if anyone there can correctly read the data). And so he’s trying to have our analytics guy connect the data to video, to the actual game and have him more often in the room where the coaches are so the stats pursuit becomes somewhat practical.

    This is usually true wherever complicated masses of data exists. In medicine, for example, your GP can usually only read “yes/no”, ie. over 50 means you have the disease, under 50 means you’re okay. The tests are highly simplified. If you’ve got something unusually complicated you need a doctor trained in and also gifted at research. Those people who can understand complexes of data are rare, and not at all the run of the mill doctors.

    (Looks like an interesting TFC - Leeds discussions going on above… hope to have the time to read it.)
    As someone who works in data, I'm quite frankly shocked that teams accept data 'professionals' that don't connect said data to video, if only to highlight the issues. Even my dad did the same stuff for some Olympic teams, and at no point was he asked to provide more than the trends.

  13. #3253
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yuushalinsky View Post
    As someone who works in data, I'm quite frankly shocked that teams accept data 'professionals' that don't connect said data to video, if only to highlight the issues. Even my dad did the same stuff for some Olympic teams, and at no point was he asked to provide more than the trends.
    I read that and wondered what the heck is going on because even at the non-league level in England, good analytics ALWAYS goes with video - any in game data developed from the monitoring devices is synced to video including different angles.

    And, IIRC, MLS teams have a full field camera at each field.

  14. #3254
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    Quote Originally Posted by leedsandTFC View Post
    Terrible idea...yet again.

    He's on the cusp of 30 has had terrible injury issues and has 21 goals in the last 3 seasons combined.

    He'd be max tam very likely and has a history of toxicity in the dressing room.

    There's a reason atlanta were so keen to get rid

    You see, comments like this are the main problem here. Why does it have to be such a direct attack on another posters idea? There's nothing stopping you from voicing your opinion (like you do every third post on this board) but why not something like "in my opinion...". You talk about negativity from some others, but man, you spew it out endlessly at your "targets" like a hypocrite.

    I love the posts and comments on here, and we all should be able to have them.

  15. #3255
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    Quote Originally Posted by TMAN80 View Post
    You see, comments like this are the main problem here. Why does it have to be such a direct attack on another posters idea? There's nothing stopping you from voicing your opinion (like you do every third post on this board) but why not something like "in my opinion...". You talk about negativity from some others, but man, you spew it out endlessly at your "targets" like a hypocrite.

    I love the posts and comments on here, and we all should be able to have them.
    The attack on the idea's quality SHOULD be okay, I don't think we should be encouraging wanton, uncritical, evidence-less posts. Now, if you're talking about tone, that's another piece I may be more inclined to agree with you on, but frequently, posters post 'just my opinion' to avoid having to actually think about what they say. We shouldn't be encouraging that if we want actual discussion.

  16. #3256
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    After reading through the past few pages/days of posts, I'd highly recommend some y'all step away from the internet and go for a walk in nature.

    It's just a game.

  17. #3257
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    Quote Originally Posted by los sonadores View Post
    Bradley at the press conference last week alluded to this. He said usually the analytics guys are alone in a room producing tons of data not necessarily connected to anything, to what anybody else is doing. (And of course every team has to have this in vogue department no matter if anyone there can correctly read the data). And so he’s trying to have our analytics guy connect the data to video, to the actual game and have him more often in the room where the coaches are so the stats pursuit becomes somewhat practical.

    This is usually true wherever complicated masses of data exists. In medicine, for example, your GP can usually only read “yes/no”, ie. over 50 means you have the disease, under 50 means you’re okay. The tests are highly simplified. If you’ve got something unusually complicated you need a doctor trained in and also gifted at research. Those people who can understand complexes of data are rare, and not at all the run of the mill doctors.

    (Looks like an interesting TFC - Leeds discussions going on above… hope to have the time to read it.)
    This is exactly it. Data is great, we should all be for using it. But data needs be be connected to other things for its highest and best use. Using video to pin-point what is happening or contextualize what is showing up in the numbers is an example of doing things right.

  18. #3258
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    Quote Originally Posted by ag futbol View Post
    This is exactly it. Data is great, we should all be for using it. But data needs be be connected to other things for its highest and best use. Using video to pin-point what is happening or contextualize what is showing up in the numbers is an example of doing things right.
    Could not have said it better!

  19. #3259
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ultra & Proud View Post
    NYRB every 2-3 years make it work on an average team but they are aided by having a team of scrubs who are more than happy to run like dogs after a tennis ball for 90 minutes a week.
    And they still can't make a playoff run. 27 years and counting without a title for the Shite Bulls, heh heh. (Still, I will always consider the Supporter's Shield the real title.)

  20. #3260
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    Quote Originally Posted by jloome View Post
    And they still can't make a playoff run. 27 years and counting without a title for the Shite Bulls, heh heh. (Still, I will always consider the Supporter's Shield the real title.)
    I share that laughter....

    &

    We almost always have major issues playing them & this year the inevitable 2-0 loss away game is the second last game of the season.

  21. #3261
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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    I share that laughter....

    &

    We almost always have major issues playing them & this year the inevitable 2-0 loss away game is the second last game of the season.
    No man, fuck that! This is the year we turn around the Brian Edwards curse. (I mean, it's totally unfair to blame him, but 5-0 on decision day, and it started with him letting in a howler of a long shot, as I recall.)

  22. #3262
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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    I share that laughter....

    &

    We almost always have major issues playing them & this year the inevitable 2-0 loss away game is the second last game of the season.
    They just extended Lewis Morgan. They could lose 20 games this year and that motherfriender would still destroy TFC three times this year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jloome View Post
    No man, fuck that! This is the year we turn around the Brian Edwards curse. (I mean, it's totally unfair to blame him, but 5-0 on decision day, and it started with him letting in a howler of a long shot, as I recall.)
    I will never forget that first goal, as it was from a fairly central position, not hit that hard… and hit the back netting. Not the side netting.
    "There are some people who might have better technique than me, and some may be fitter than me, but the main thing is tactics. With most players, tactics are missing. You can divide tactics into insight, trust, and daring." - Johan Cruyff

  24. #3264
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    "CF Montreal is entertaining offers for Canadian international center back Kamal Miller, a source said. The club is looking for — what else? — allocation money."
    via
    @KristianRDyer

    would tfc be interested and how would you pay for him.that is a question for the night owls
    Last edited by reggie; 01-11-2023 at 11:47 PM.

  25. #3265
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    Quote Originally Posted by reggie View Post
    "CF Montreal is entertaining offers for Canadian international center back Kamal Miller, a source said. The club is looking for — what else? — allocation money."
    via
    @KristianRDyer

    would tfc be interested and how would you pay for him.that is a question for the night owls
    Ignoring the idea that the Foot would never trade to Toronto, only kind of? The Rosted thing really has me thinking we're not doing this high press, high line stuff. We need positioning more than anything else

  26. #3266
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    another report out tonight is that LAFC may look to move arango for about 2.2 gam

  27. #3267
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    Quote Originally Posted by reggie View Post
    "CF Montreal is entertaining offers for Canadian international center back Kamal Miller, a source said. The club is looking for — what else? — allocation money."
    via
    @KristianRDyer

    would tfc be interested and how would you pay for him.that is a question for the night owls
    Hell yes. He can play on the left side in a 3, obviously, but also probably a back 4. We have no one in that position right now. I'd snap him up in a heartbeat.

  28. #3268
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    A RPB/RU citing a RPB Member?




    If no 'direct deal' may be had, perhaps by proxy; a three-way trade?
    Last edited by Mr. Inbetween; 01-12-2023 at 07:18 AM. Reason: Grammar

  29. #3269
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    A few of us may be antsy about Sean Johnson's arrival.
    I hope/expect it should happen. And sooner rather than later.
    I realize time is of the essence given the start of training camp.
    Still, we should take some comfort in this knowledge...
    This deal may need time; it's a process that must run it's course.
    Remember, Matt Hedges was photographed at a TML's game on 21NOV22.
    His TFC announcement happened 20DEC22.
    About a month had transpired.
    So, SJ was at the Raptors 08JAN23 game...
    Theoretically, he could ideally be signed/announced sometime before, and at the latest, 07FEB23?



    Last edited by Mr. Inbetween; 01-12-2023 at 07:14 AM.

  30. #3270
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    Hmmm.
    Interesting.
    Alan Sonora, currently without club and by several accounts would like to play in MLS.
    Selected by USMNT; given a 'showcase' chance later this January?


 

 

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