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  1. #3211
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    Quote Originally Posted by leedsandTFC View Post

    how many of the 10 goals against from miami, montreal, NE and LAG go in on sean johnson?

    maybe 2?3?
    As I've said before, he has great games he wins singlehandedly. But so did Bono (18 saves at Chicago, a club record).

    Sean Johnson had a 66% save percentage last year, in the bottom 18% of the league.

    I don't doubt he won't make as many flubs as Bono, but I'm leery that people think he'll be mistake free.

    These are his ratings from NYFC's decline after Taty left last year:

    5.21



    6.12



    6.02

    6.61

    [/C
    6.11



    5.36

    5.79


    5.93

    5.83


    6.35


    5.82


    So... this is not Aaron Ramsdale.

    He had a difficult year. He's 33, which usually isn't a knock on keepers, but also raises the immediate question of whether it's affecting his play.

    His strength is stopping rebound chances. Given how many goals in MLS are on secondary chances, it becomes clear that his real value is making big saves. But overall, he had a really poor year. So ... again, maybe it's two or three, or maybe based on his most recent outings, it's eight to 10.


    Take away that NYFC defense, and that clean sheet percentage doesn't look so important, because the save percentage wasn't there to suggest he could do it without them.
    Last edited by jloome; 01-11-2023 at 12:29 PM.

  2. #3212
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    Quote Originally Posted by leedsandTFC View Post
    we likely aren't going to play with a high press this year, we will be going out to dominate games possession wise, and press when we lose the ball and have guys nearby.

    this is obvious based on our signings, all of whom are good ball players. hedges, vazquez, keeping oso, rosted is by some accounts a good passer.

    also fwiw, 538 league rankings puts the danish league very very closely to MLS, and the average player there is probably better than the average player here as our league quality is uplifted by the DPs.

    rosted is out of favour there now, as is not uncommon to happen, but has played a lot of games there and won a title there.

    and, no. we aren't going to have insigne and bernardeschi pressing like aaronson and summerville. as we saw from the backend of last season. it's not remotely similar, other than playing with a certain intensity.

    im not a fan of marschball btw, i would be disappointed if we played like that, was happy when we ditched armas, who did.
    Man, I hope you're right. My hope is that he was getting heavy pressure from Bill to pursue the press, as it had been the direction for two years under Ali. If we set up more patiently and don't ignore the back half, we will probably be fine.

    But that's what they said last year. We were going to control the ball, and press when the other team lost it. But our back line was always so high relative to its speed that any loss of possession was an instant threat going the other way. Team sets up a high line, team loses ball, team presses but doesn't win it immediatley... transitional long pass, defender beat, goal.

    Rinse, repeat, rinse, repeat.

    The only reason we have to set up so high all the time is to hunt the ball as soon as the other team loses it. If that's to be effective, mids have to join the forwards to overwhelm the ball carrier. But that means the defenders then have to be higher to maintain distance between the lines and possession if they win it back....

    .... and that leaves speed at the back a major problem again.

    So I'm just not sure it's going to work. If we had a defensive midfielder with speed, so that the outlet man on the long ball wasn't the only person being covered, and there was someone to jam up traffic trying to drift into the box, it would just mitigate so much risk. It makes two of the midfielders work harder on the press because they have to cover the striker's man as well as the winger's. But better that than getting beat on three shots, because the other team is gifted one-on-one/one-on-zero changes.
    Last edited by jloome; 01-11-2023 at 12:40 PM.

  3. #3213
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    Quote Originally Posted by jloome View Post
    As I've said before, he has great games he wins singlehandedly. But so did Bono (18 saves at Chicago, a club record).

    Sean Johnson had a 66% save percentage last year, in the bottom 18% of the league.

    I don't doubt he won't make as many flubs as Bono, but I'm leery that people think he'll be mistake free.

    These are his ratings from NYFC's decline after Taty left last year:

    5.21



    6.12



    6.02

    6.61

    [/C
    6.11



    5.36

    5.79


    5.93

    5.83


    6.35


    5.82


    So... this is not Aaron Ramsdale.

    He had a difficult year. He's 33, which usually isn't a knock on keepers, but also raises the immediate question of whether it's affecting his play.

    His strength is stopping rebound chances. Given how many goals in MLS are on secondary chances, it becomes clear that his real value is making big saves. But overall, he had a really poor year. So ... again, maybe it's two or three, or maybe based on his most recent outings, it's eight to 10.

    How does that compare to years past? From what I saw on his fbref, many of his lows weren't just lows, they were low by a LOT. Usually speaks to bounce-back regression rather than a massive cliff drop-off.

  4. #3214
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    Quote Originally Posted by jloome View Post
    Man, I hope you're right. My hope is that he was getting heavy pressure from Bill to pursue the press, as it had been the direction for two years under Ali. If we set up more patiently and don't ignore the back half, we will probably be fine.

    But if we take the same approach as last year, we're probably in trouble.

    Early days.
    i agree, a high press with this group would be a disaster.

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    FWIW, the people on the NYCFC forum seem resigned to losing johnson.

    "if he was re-signing he would have already".

    i think we're all collectively underestimating how big an impact moving from bono to johnson (or any competent MLS gk) will have.

    not a coincidence that the only successful spells we've had since 2018 have been with bono..not in net.

    it's not just the shot stopping, it's the lack of ability to marshall a defence, that bleeds into defenders and fills everyone with uncertainty.
    Last edited by leedsandTFC; 01-11-2023 at 12:40 PM.

  6. #3216
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    My take on our priorities to get bang for the buck on the results side. Not saying we don't need to upgrade the midfield as an example but everyone has their priorities ...

    1. Good goalie with all of the standard skills but someone who can command his box and is skilled at coming for and winning a ball in the air on a set piece.
    2. Pair of good tall central defenders (perhaps we already signed one in Hedges) who are good in the air who can also defend their box on set pieces.
    3. Left back because we don't have a proven left back and we need one ... preferably two footed but left footed if he only has one foot.
    3. Target man #9 out and out striker. Also with some height who can also help defend set pieces in his own box. Someone who gets to the penalty spot on a regular basis and waits for his 20 goals to arrive courtesy of his two new Italian friends.
    4. Midfield depth who is perhaps young and has the upside to unseat one of our starting three midfielders.

    My reasoning ... we gave up 66 goals last season. I can take the goals that came from genuine chances. What I hate is how many we gave up from both set pieces and goalkeeper errors. Signing a couple of central defenders won't help unless the team as a whole defend their own box better and our goalie is more reliable and can come for a ball in the air. We also scored 49 goals last year. That's with half a season of the Italians but it's also half a season of both of them doing things they weren't necessarily asked to do in Italy. They can both put the biscuit in the basket but if we want them at their best, we want them supplying balls into a striker who will actually finish those chances. We never had that consistent presence in the attacking box consistently enough last year. Fix both of those issues and we're on the right track. Once we're on the right track ... tweak in the summer and we should be fine.

  7. #3217
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    anyone rollerblading by BMO, heard any other updates, i would expect an announcement by end of week, with at least one signing, or its going to put us at a slight disadvantage getting worse each week, as it takes time for our squad to gain chemistry, heres to hoping

  8. #3218
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    Quote Originally Posted by jloome View Post
    I will be gladly proven wrong but I'm calling it now: If our midfield three is Bradley-Osorio-Kaye, we will not compete for the title and will have trouble making the playoffs.

    They're all excellent players as number eights. Three numbers eights has never worked in MLS and I don't think will. If we had world-class central midfielders who were as good going back as coming forward, it might.

    But between the three of them, we don't have a single two-tackle-per-game defender, we'll lose 70% of aerial challenges across the middle zone, as per last year.

    Perhaps most important, we don't have recovery speed if caught too high on the press, as neither central defender is going to be quick. None of the three has strong acceleration, although Oso's pace over distance is okay.

    This three looks good to some people on paper and you can all pile on if you want, but that midfield gets hammered by speed.

    If we were playing a tactical setup with rigorous and strict movement responsibilities, it might work, because someone would always be careful to be back far enough to retreat and cover.

    But that's not what BB or most most coaches in this league preach; they preach high possession and press, then attacking the opponents' worst tendencies from the highest-reward attack zones (at the top corners of the offensive box).

    So we will have multiple occasions when we are caught with everyone high again, but will have no speed to react to it.

    As I said, I will be glad to be proven wrong. Maybe he comes out 343 or 5-2-3 and the three back has us covered. But I doub it.

    I am, I think, going to be this off seasons' skeptics. Our new starting centre half, if that's what he is, was benched in a league weaker than this one.

    And we still don't have a new striker yet or goalie. Here's hoping we get a lot stronger in the next two weeks, so that by the time we're 10 or 12 games in and they realize our own midfield is being overrun, we have the parts to make changes.

    (And before we get into any non-point arguments to expertise or other logical fallacies, he's also lost at other teams, too . His Chivas team was woeful, and he mostly got to build that from scratch. Being a great manager in a few circumstances, as football has always shown, does not mean you're a great manager forever, or all the time. )

    Leedstfc, you of all people should recognize what's going to happen based on what's happening at Leeds. Every time they are caught high and the other team can bypass Adams/Rocca, Leeds are on dicey footing defensively. It's happened again and again this season.

    The same thing is going to happen here, for largely the same reasons (Leeds are also playing a two mid, but also two high fullbacks, so they're often caught with two high central defenders retreating).

    If we're counting on Richie to cover, it's worth considering that despite his speed and being in the 99th percentile of his position offensively, he is in the bottom third defensively. He is not a good tackler. PLus, he spends much of his time pushed high as well.

    We were too aggressive offensively last season. It worked exactly once (we had four wins after they arrived but only one dominant, against Charlotte) , then Oso went out. Without him between Kay and Bradley we were lost. So presuming, as has been his norm, he missed five-to-ten games this season, what is the plan?

    Even that one dominant performance was grounded in Charlotte being so terrified of the Italians that they sat back in their own end the entire match.

    On paper, we should be competing for the league because of all the offensive skill. But no team holds the ball all the time. Good defensive, aggressive teams will cause us serious, serious problems defensively.

    Fingers crossed on the next four weeks, but I refuse to be optimistic until we're competitive, and we're not now.

    I agree. Last season- TFC's back line early on was all the way up near the center line-.

    I am unsure if BB will change his formation, I know he played 4-4-2 but changed it up the last game of the season?

    I agree- no speed will hurt- especially when pressing too high.

    Cant have richie run all the way up to opposing 18 yard box and then make it back to recover the counter.

    I really hope you and I are both wrong and that formation other then 4-4-2 is played.

  9. #3219
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    Quote Originally Posted by leedsandTFC View Post

    it's not just the shot stopping, it's the lack of ability to marshall a defence, that bleeds into defenders and fills everyone with uncertainty.
    Yeah, that's true. Alex was basically silent. Q was much better with his defence.

    Johnson is also a very strong rebound stopper, year after year. So goals in the box from scrambles should decline significantly. Couple with several of our players (Bradley, Laryea, O'Neill) being good shot blockers, it should be noticeable.

  10. #3220
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    Quote Originally Posted by ag futbol View Post
    Totally agree.

    I’ll wait until I see the final roster come opening day to make any definitive judgements. I’m hoping they really put their foot down in the next 2-3 weeks and round out the roster. But there is so much to do and it feels like we’ve all seen this movie before.

    I completely agree- I dont like this movie-

  11. #3221
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    Quote Originally Posted by jloome View Post
    Yeah, that's true. Alex was basically silent. Q was much better with his defence.

    Johnson is also a very strong rebound stopper, year after year. So goals in the box from scrambles should decline significantly. Couple with several of our players (Bradley, Laryea, O'Neill) being good shot blockers, it should be noticeable.
    The reported new guy, Rosted, was a top shot blocker in Superligaen and I'm pretty sure Hedges is too. feels a little too hockey to be effective in isolation but it is a plus.

  12. #3222
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    Quote Originally Posted by leedsandTFC View Post
    marschball has very little in common with bradleyball, so to try to draw comparisons is futile. one seeks to concede possession and counterpress, the other seeks to dominate the ball (with some pressing, but nothing similar to what leeds do)..

    in addition, leeds actually do have pace and tacklers in CM, and still get bypassed, so even the point you were trying to make is wrong.

    "one dominant performance?"

    we dominated every game for the first 8/9 games after the italians arrived, only comedic goalkeeping stopped us from winning virtually all of those. the portland game, for instance, was the best start to finish performance ive ever seen at BMO field, against a team uneaten in months. we outshot them 23-3 and had almost 60% possession.

    in fact our xGA dropped to just over 1 (1.08) in that stretch, which over the whole season would give us one of the best defenses in the league. and that was with inferior defenders/ GK playing.

    "good defensive teams" don't really exist in MLS. only 1 team in the entire league conceded under 1 g/game. another two were around the 1 goal/ game mark, but slightly over (and we signed one of those two's best CB).

    if you look at the data, we were very good defensively in games we had bradley/oso/ insigne/berna and one of kaye/ nelson on the pitch. the only game we gave up significant xGa was in nashville, one of the toughest away games in the league and mostly through set pieces. and we still won.

    how is it convenient you leave out the last 4 games of the season where TFC let 4 goals a game- and you cant say on vacation- when all players still played man.

  13. #3223
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    Quote Originally Posted by FootBallAZ View Post
    I agree. Last season- TFC's back line early on was all the way up near the center line-.

    I am unsure if BB will change his formation, I know he played 4-4-2 but changed it up the last game of the season?

    I agree- no speed will hurt- especially when pressing too high.

    Cant have richie run all the way up to opposing 18 yard box and then make it back to recover the counter.

    I really hope you and I are both wrong and that formation other then 4-4-2 is played.
    433. We had a few 442 switches late in games when he wanted two strikers on but mostly we were flat 433.

    To me, our personnel screams to give the wb less to do defensively and more offensively, in a 5-2-3/3-4-3. Very adaptable shape, easy to drop a striker and move to a three- or four-man mid late in games. Keep the speed wide, the centre strong.

  14. #3224
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hala Hrvatska View Post
    One could say your obsession in defending MB to the death is very strange and very odd also...just saying....
    It's almost like we're all passionate, fickle fans who overstate things because of our emotional connection to the source material. Or something.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Canary10 View Post
    I agree with Jloome that we don't have a proper number 6, think it's actually a critical position to fill. Unfortunately it's not a priority from what Bob said, mentioning only backup midfielders as a priority.

    i agree need a starting midfield still

  16. #3226
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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    It took me months to get used to that moniker going around this board....

    LOLL

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ultra & Proud View Post
    This is a key spot but without a move I would rather toss Oso into the 6, MAK at 8, Bradley on the bench, and try to score a MF with pace and some defensive responsibility at a decent $$$ domestically or abroad.

    agreed

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    Yeah I agree with jloome too. To me, it's another way of framing the much-discussed MB issue. In a different world, MB would have gone upstairs, and we'd have used those dollars on Mendes.

    too logical

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    Quote Originally Posted by jloome View Post
    It's almost like we're all passionate, fickle fans who overstate things because of our emotional connection to the source material. Or something.
    Agreed.

    At the end of the day, everyone here wants the club back on top...will be a range of pessimistic and optimistic and in between. Not going to lie, with every passing day, am getting more worried by the minute. Hope lots of good news the next couple of weeks on new arrivals.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hala Hrvatska View Post
    We tied our worst goals against total record again last year. Gave up bushelfulls of goals when the Italians were here...4 vs Montreal...4 vs Atlanta....4 vs Orlando...etc....You keep coming up wiht this "xga" stat...that is meaningless when I saw us continually give up 4 goals....just admit it, we were horrible defensively for lots of reasons, including our "anchor" midfield getting overrun and not providing any shield...and as Jloome points out, more of the same now with our MB, Oso/Kaye midfield...none are strong defensively...even you will have to admit it....)

    "mostly set pieces" is not an excuse. Everyone knows we are very weak defensively on set pieces and a big part of that was your guy MB...who could forget the two Atlanta goals were he got beat the exact same way for easy flick ons that led to two goals...that certainly wasn't some fluke, it was a game plan....target him in the air.

    Cheers...)

    100 % agreed.
    he is cherry picking stats- last 4 games dont count because they were on vacation- so those 12 goals dont reflet the XGA stat.

  21. #3231
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoesphNdo View Post
    I don't disagree with the overall thesis on the makeup of the team, but do keep in mind again 1) transfer window is far from over, and we have an open DP slot and 2) our current DPs are so comically superior to the general quality of the league that it's basically unfair that we get to use them, and they alone will make up for all manner of shortcomings

    So let's see what happens. But yes, I do agree BB seems to have a huge mid field blindspot and that will hold us back. But, add a DP (young or otherwise) and a couple of signings and we may still do something just on the strength of our ability to sign two players that almost no other team could dream of having.

    We'll know alot more by the closing of the window

    As an aside can we please tone down the rage when someone disagrees with you about football? This thread is becoming really tiresome to slog through
    I agree - theres more then 1 opinion on what supporters see and want-

    I know for a fact- we all want the team to succeed -

  22. #3232
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    Quote Originally Posted by leedsandTFC View Post
    xga is not meaningless, every team in the world is working towards limiting xGa, that's all you can do as a team.

    and yes, the team fell apart when oso went out bc we had no creative midfield depth.

    and jesus christ how did you turn this into another hate boner post against the most successful player in this club's history?

    successful in what sense? He didnt win MVP, argument can be made for Seba or Jozy being the most successful.

    care to elaborate what makes MB most successful - is it games played you're basing it on?

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    Quote Originally Posted by gracos View Post
    anyone rollerblading by BMO, heard any other updates, i would expect an announcement by end of week, with at least one signing, or its going to put us at a slight disadvantage getting worse each week, as it takes time for our squad to gain chemistry, heres to hoping

    been told not to over-react and worry

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hala Hrvatska View Post
    Dude, hyperbole much...I don't "hate" MB....am sure in real life is a good dude....but he is a defensive liability...even if he was a "great" player here in the past.


    Bono was a sieve no denying that....even Westburgh let some s.hit goals in...but all were on shots on net so there is always a chance (albeit low on howlers) the ball is going into the back of the net...and the team is weak defensively, not just the keeper.

    Look, full disclosure, am a Croatia and Real Madrid fan also....we have/had "anchors" like Brozovic and Casemiro/Tchoumani...who shield the back....now in no way am I comparing those class players with MB who is nowhere near that level...but the role is the same, protect the d....and MB doesn't have the legs to do it....sorry, if you don't see it, but i think many here do. And still we don't have his heir or replacement. NOw you tell me, why do you think that is? And are you not concerend our midfield three is weak defensively?
    I agree and share concern.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hala Hrvatska View Post
    One could say your obsession in defending MB to the death is very strange and very odd also...just saying....
    I dint bring him up in every post, so you'd be wrong if you said that

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    See I blocked AZ and now my feed is just spammed blocked messages.

    Smh

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hala Hrvatska View Post
    Agreed.

    At the end of the day, everyone here wants the club back on top...will be a range of pessimistic and optimistic and in between. Not going to lie, with every passing day, am getting more worried by the minute. Hope lots of good news the next couple of weeks on new arrivals.

    this is how i feel- if they gutted the team last season -they surely should have had a plan in place which it doesnt seem like at all.

  28. #3238
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    Quote Originally Posted by FootBallAZ View Post
    I agree and share concern.
    I mean... don't take me as so cynical as to be out-and-out worried. I think Leedstfc might be right in that their lineup BEGS to not press continually, so what we might see is far fewer chances on our keeper to begin with, due to better shot blocking and the backline not being caught high all the time.

    If we limited the press to loose balls or isolated opponents, and the rest of the time concentrate on possession and moving the ball quickly, to unbalance our opponents, then suddenly transition either way becomes a lot less important.

    But our high line and shape last year suggested the press was a priority, and that was generally how they played.

    So it entirely depends on what they roll out tactically. If we're taking the exact approach as last year, I think the speed problem and the lack of a true DM will hurt our competitiveness badly. If we're more conservative, we could go a long way based on Insigne/Bernadeschi/Osorio alone.

  29. #3239
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hala Hrvatska View Post
    Well said as usual Joseph. This DP will be the key....and I do think the "blindspot" to the midfield is totally because of the father-son dynamic but I digress....

    Am hopefull a whole bunch of signing soon...will take time to gel...but I don't want to hear at all again about having to give BB another transfer window...this is it, we must come out of the gate on fire even if new pieces added....

    i agree no more another window to get the right player.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jloome View Post
    I mean... don't take me as so cynical as to be out-and-out worried. I think Leedstfc might be right in that their lineup BEGS to not press continually, so what we might see is far fewer chances on our keeper to begin with, due to better shot blocking and the backline not being caught high all the time.

    If we limited the press to loose balls or isolated opponents, and the rest of the time concentrate on possession and moving the ball quickly, to unbalance our opponents, then suddenly transition either way becomes a lot less important.

    But our high line and shape last year suggested the press was a priority, and that was generally how they played.

    So it entirely depends on what they roll out tactically. If we're taking the exact approach as last year, I think the speed problem and the lack of a true DM will hurt our competitiveness badly. If we're more conservative, we could go a long way based on Insigne/Bernadeschi/Osorio alone.

    honestly think the press strategy is top down from Manning - who wants to emulate Red bulls.

    Anyone could see TFC was not a pressing team and more possession based -

 

 

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