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  1. #1
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    Default Let's be realistic now

    First I'll acknowledge that it is possible, in fact our nemesis Seattle has done it multiple times; gone on an end of season tear and just make the playoffs, and end up in the finals or even winning the Cup. This could happen with TFC.

    Realistically though, I don't see it. Maybe it's just TFC's less than illustrious years colouring my perspective, but let's look at the facts:

    1) TFC would have to get nearly 2 points per match over the rest of the season. That's 2017 type numbers, and our team as a whole isn't that level of good.

    2) TFC would need to have 5 teams do poorly to leapfrog them to the 7th spot.

    3) No further injuries to our starters happens as depth is non-existent.

    It did not have to be this hard. The kids could have not leaked so many goals or been better at scoring. Insigne could have arrived healthy instead of injured.

    So while it's really fun enjoying see TFC doing well, and have great expectations for next season, I'm not seriously planning for post season play for 2022.

    Is it excessive pessimism or solid realism? It would be great to see TFC beat the odds, it would be fantastic. I'm just not expecting it.

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    Nah you are mostly right. There are 9 clubs with between 29-34 points, playing for 3 spots.

    But three of the nine have played one less game (Revs, Crew, Atlanta). Which makes it harder.

    But it's not a total moonshot. It could happen. Because of the parity, win streaks are big. Any one of those teams who rips off 6 wins here will make it.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    We didn't get a commanding CB and our bench is still weak. I don't expect TFC to score 3-4 goals per every game.

    Playoffs would be nice. But I don't expect it

    “Years have gone by and I’ve finally learned to accept myself for who I am: a beggar for good football.

    I go about the world, hand outstretched, and in the stadiums I plead: ‘A pretty move, for the love of God.’

    And when good football happens, I give thanks for the miracle and I don’t give a damn which team or country performs it.”

    -Eduardo Galeano

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    Ah, I think we are going to finish 5th, but I am the eternal optimist of this forum.

    Bob and Bill have done a hell of a job building a quality team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    First I'll acknowledge that it is possible, in fact our nemesis Seattle has done it multiple times; gone on an end of season tear and just make the playoffs, and end up in the finals or even winning the Cup. This could happen with TFC.

    Realistically though, I don't see it. Maybe it's just TFC's less than illustrious years colouring my perspective, but let's look at the facts:

    1) TFC would have to get nearly 2 points per match over the rest of the season. That's 2017 type numbers, and our team as a whole isn't that level of good.

    2) TFC would need to have 5 teams do poorly to leapfrog them to the 7th spot.

    3) No further injuries to our starters happens as depth is non-existent.

    It did not have to be this hard. The kids could have not leaked so many goals or been better at scoring. Insigne could have arrived healthy instead of injured.

    So while it's really fun enjoying see TFC doing well, and have great expectations for next season, I'm not seriously planning for post season play for 2022.

    Is it excessive pessimism or solid realism? It would be great to see TFC beat the odds, it would be fantastic. I'm just not expecting it.
    Realism, for sure.

    Reading your list, though, gave me hope. And in our favour is that we still haven’t seen much of Kaye with the other new signings. If he can get healthy, winning 6 of 9 remaining matches is quite possible. And while at least three of the teams we must pass are resurgent since the end of the transfer window, I think five of our nine are against teams currently tied with us or four points ahead. So in other words, six pointers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    First I'll acknowledge that it is possible, in fact our nemesis Seattle has done it multiple times; gone on an end of season tear and just make the playoffs, and end up in the finals or even winning the Cup. This could happen with TFC.

    Realistically though, I don't see it. Maybe it's just TFC's less than illustrious years colouring my perspective, but let's look at the facts:

    1) TFC would have to get nearly 2 points per match over the rest of the season. That's 2017 type numbers, and our team as a whole isn't that level of good.

    2) TFC would need to have 5 teams do poorly to leapfrog them to the 7th spot.

    3) No further injuries to our starters happens as depth is non-existent.

    It did not have to be this hard. The kids could have not leaked so many goals or been better at scoring. Insigne could have arrived healthy instead of injured.

    So while it's really fun enjoying see TFC doing well, and have great expectations for next season, I'm not seriously planning for post season play for 2022.

    Is it excessive pessimism or solid realism? It would be great to see TFC beat the odds, it would be fantastic. I'm just not expecting it.
    we're more than good enough to get 2 points a game for the rest of the season.

    in the 4 games since the italians joined, we have 10 points, including 2 wins against playoff teams. and the team is improving week on week, with MAK to rejoin the fray.

    we probably need 6 wins and a draw. win the home games and a couple away and we're in business.

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    If it was 9 games with 1 a week, I'd say doable.

    It's not.

    The 3 game weeks are going to prove our undoing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    Nah you are mostly right. There are 9 clubs with between 29-34 points, playing for 3 spots.

    But three of the nine have played one less game (Revs, Crew, Atlanta). Which makes it harder.

    But it's not a total moonshot. It could happen. Because of the parity, win streaks are big. Any one of those teams who rips off 6 wins here will make it.
    those are mostly the teams we're playing.

    if we win seven or eight of the remaining games we'll probably make it. If this lineup stays healthy that's possible.

    Insigne showed last night that if we're down or tied late, he'll park himself in the box and put the team on his back until we get one.

    I think barring arrogance (ie getting so confident we switch off in the last few games), we'll make it.

    also worth considering that these guys have been practising together for a grand total of three weeks.
    Last edited by jloome; 08-14-2022 at 03:38 PM.

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    I like our chances but God I hope Poz doesn’t kill us Saturday night

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gringo Starr View Post
    I like our chances but God I hope Poz doesn’t kill us Saturday night
    We know exactly where he likes to operate, in the hole between the mids and defence, and where prefers to shoot from, the right side of the 'D'.

    Be nice to think, given how predictable his game is, that we could counter it properly.

    I think he'll have trouble playing against a three-man mid. He likes progressive, forward passing, and as good as he is at evading tackles, when he's picked up by two players his efficacy goes down quickly.

    Having said that, he seems to be making a point at Miami. Still has to negotiate a new deal, I believe.

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    Quote Originally Posted by los sonadores View Post
    Realism, for sure.

    Reading your list, though, gave me hope. And in our favour is that we still haven’t seen much of Kaye with the other new signings. If he can get healthy, winning 6 of 9 remaining matches is quite possible. And while at least three of the teams we must pass are resurgent since the end of the transfer window, I think five of our nine are against teams currently tied with us or four points ahead. So in other words, six pointers.
    Seven of nine remaining, although two of those are Montreal and Philly, who we can't realistically catch.

    Five of nine are effectively six-pointers, including TWO more games against Miami.

    We also have a game against the Galaxy, who are fighting for a spot. Lots of drama; us verus Poz, us versus the team formerly known as TFC. Vasquez had a nice goal yesterday and they've added Riqui Puig.

    Philly is a tough final game. It would help us if Leeds buys Kai Wagner.

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    Realistically we won't make it, but if we can get Oso back as a max TAM player, bring in a starting CB and sign a top quality DP striker (Josef Martinez, why not demand a trade?), this team could be a legit threat for both the MLS Cup and Leagues Cup.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeForbes View Post
    Realistically we won't make it, but if we can get Oso back as a max TAM player, bring in a starting CB and sign a top quality DP striker (Josef Martinez, why not demand a trade?), this team could be a legit threat for both the MLS Cup and Leagues Cup.
    I'm not sure why it's unrealistic to think we can swing four out of 27 points.

    if we beat New England on the weekends, we're likely a point out, with 24 at hand and a team that includes insigne, Criscito and Bernardeschi

    Not easy but I think its realistic. Why not? Our main competition for that spot are Columbus, Cincy, Miami
    and New England and their form has been all over the map this year.

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    It's a low chance, but it's going to make the rest of this season a hell of a ride!

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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeForbes View Post
    Realistically we won't make it, but if we can get Oso back as a max TAM player, bring in a starting CB and sign a top quality DP striker (Josef Martinez, why not demand a trade?), this team could be a legit threat for both the MLS Cup and Leagues Cup.
    Josef Martinez this year gives me fat Ronaldo vibes. He could still be highly effective but things around the edges sort of make you wonder…

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    Quote Originally Posted by ag futbol View Post
    Josef Martinez this year gives me fat Ronaldo vibes. He could still be highly effective but things around the edges sort of make you wonder…
    I think he's past it. Never came back from that last injury.

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    I'm not thinking about playoffs. Just gonna take it one game at a time and enjoy the performances (if they continue to be like that last few games)

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    A HARD no to Josef Martinez....he's not starter quality in Atlanta. I don't know if he's even TAM worthy anymore.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TFC/Everton View Post
    Ah, I think we are going to finish 5th, but I am the eternal optimist of this forum.

    Bob and Bill have done a hell of a job building a quality team.
    cant remember for sure but last night i checked the outright odds on bet365
    i believe bet365 has us coming in 6th place in the east
    so close to new england and orlando for 6th and 7th
    Last edited by stevep; 08-15-2022 at 09:44 AM.

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    I would love to see them go on a run and make it. If we do managed to make it there is not a single team that won't be terrified of facing us in a 1 and done. The realist in me thinks that the hole is too big and we will fall just short. If they can turn in the same effort and quality every game like they did Saturday night vs Portland, playoffs or no I will be content.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jloome View Post
    We know exactly where he likes to operate, in the hole between the mids and defence, and where prefers to shoot from, the right side of the 'D'.

    Be nice to think, given how predictable his game is, that we could counter it properly.

    I think he'll have trouble playing against a three-man mid. He likes progressive, forward passing, and as good as he is at evading tackles, when he's picked up by two players his efficacy goes down quickly.

    Having said that, he seems to be making a point at Miami. Still has to negotiate a new deal, I believe.
    Big game player who will be looking to make a point who will know how to pick apart our D though. Hopefully Kaye will be back.

    I'm still on team we make it though. no team 11-5 look as good as we do on paper. Columbus at 5, on 34 with a game in hand is a big ask but 6 or 7 are there for the taking. I will be disappointed if we can't swing a 4 point gap in 9 games.

    After a couple of crap seasons and a youth experiment I'm drinking the Kool aid, see you all in the first round, after wednesday we are only 1 back.

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    Whatever happens lets enjoy the ride. It's been fun lately.

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    I think it’s possible and will hold out hope.

    This would have been way more possible if we had signed guys even a few games earlier.

    Right now I’m watching how guys in certain positions perform.

    MacNaughton I’m really hoping shows an excellent extended run of form through the end. If he does, we may have a genuine starter on our hands.

    I’m hoping that Jimenez/Akinola can demonstrate they don’t need to replaced by a DP. If they don’t start scoring I think the FO makes that kind of move and it screws with cohesion next year.

    Can you imagine 3 DPs up top and one doesn’t mesh? Disaster.

    On the other hand, it’s time for changing of guard with Mavinga/Bono/Westberg and as much as I enjoy seeing them in-form, I know it won’t last long term based on history.
    Last edited by portu; 08-15-2022 at 09:42 AM.

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    Making the playoffs is not as far fetched as some people believe.

    4 points out.

    27 points available.

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    Quote Originally Posted by portu View Post
    On the other hand, it’s time for changing of guard with Mavinga/Bono/Westberg and as much as I enjoy seeing them in-form, I know it won’t last long term based on history.
    We might *marginally* be able to get one more season out of Mavinga as a starter. But I wouldn’t disagree if we went our separate ways this off-season.

    The GK thing is a top priority though. I would argue striker is too if things continue on their current form.

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    I think these next two games will determine it.

    Full points - we are going to do it

    4 points - we are maybe going to do it

    Anything else - we are not going to get there, too many teams to catch with only 7 games left.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    I think these next two games will determine it.

    Full points - we are going to do it

    4 points - we are maybe going to do it

    Anything else - we are not going to get there, too many teams to catch with only 7 games left.
    Beat New England and Miami and we're on 35, which could be enough for seventh if three or four other results go our way.

    Very optimistic, I know, but it would put us in the pole with seven games left.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    A HARD no to Josef Martinez....he's not starter quality in Atlanta. I don't know if he's even TAM worthy anymore.
    Gonna have to disagree with you on this...
    A HARD... WELL... MAYBE! An if, and, or but situation.
    Particularly, depending how the Osorio circumstance may need to be addressed.
    Josef Martinez would be an interesting candidate; particularly at MAX TAM. Mos def a reclamation project like Laryea.
    Especially if both Jimenez and Akinola are unable to perform regularly.
    And only if this is somehow achievable in a trade this winter off-season, given, IIUC, he has one year left on his contract with ATL at 4.15M?
    Martinez = Belotti? Lite? Similar experience, SerieA/Torino. Both have been injured. Relatively comparable performances?
    Just have been unable to get any read on any contract leaning by Jonathan during any game play or post - media interactions.
    Darn ensco, son of a gun, has tainted my thinking and position on Osorio; second thoughts and pause.
    My position is changing to one that TFC must re-sign him; maybe at all cost.
    Preferably with a MAX TAM deal; even with a sustainable, year over year GAM buy down?
    If achievable? Given my lack of understanding of MLS financial rules and regulations.
    Otherwise as an actual DP; as last resort.
    Osorio has to remain a Red; and eventually be the future Team Captain.
    A proven quantity representing much more to the team, supporters and local football.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Inbetween View Post
    Gonna have to disagree with you on this...
    A HARD... WELL... MAYBE! An if, and, or but situation.
    Particularly, depending how the Osorio circumstance may need to be addressed.
    Josef Martinez would be an interesting candidate; particularly at MAX TAM. Mos def a reclamation project like Laryea.
    Especially if both Jimenez and Akinola are unable to perform regularly.
    And only if this is somehow achievable in a trade this winter off-season, given, IIUC, he has one year left on his contract with ATL at 4.15M?
    Martinez = Belotti? Lite? Similar experience, SerieA/Torino. Both have been injured. Relatively comparable performances?
    Just have been unable to get any read on any contract leaning by Jonathan during any game play or post - media interactions.
    Darn ensco, son of a gun, has tainted my thinking and position on Osorio; second thoughts and pause.
    My position is changing to one that TFC must re-sign him; maybe at all cost.
    Preferably with a MAX TAM deal; even with a sustainable, year over year GAM buy down?
    If achievable? Given my lack of understanding of MLS financial rules and regulations.
    Otherwise as an actual DP; as last resort.
    Osorio has to remain a Red; and eventually be the future Team Captain.
    A proven quantity representing much more to the team, supporters and local football.
    A hard, hard no.

    He's taken on a "bigger than the club" persona. Absolute locker room trouble right now AND he's lost his speed which was a big part of his danger.

    He's coming off the bench in Atlanta for a reason.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jloome View Post
    A hard, hard no.

    He's taken on a "bigger than the club" persona. Absolute locker room trouble right now AND he's lost his speed which was a big part of his danger.

    He's coming off the bench in Atlanta for a reason.
    Oh IDK?
    Sounds frustrated and committed like MBradley was?
    Maybe just not as reserved or careful in expressing his thoughts as Michael?

    https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/josef...s-front-office
    Last edited by Mr. Inbetween; 08-15-2022 at 05:34 PM. Reason: Grammar

 

 

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