The biggest issues for attendance are what you say - the opt-in ticket approach & how bad the team is.
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Just to go over the covid thing a bit.
One of the metrics used for how mobile people is cell phone mobility usage.
Its still down 9% over 2 years ago. OK, maybe there are less people working (Toronto's unemployment rate is 9.6%) & more people working from home.
But, people are still husbanding their "going out time" way more then they did 2 years ago.
Anecdotally, I made a choice to go to one game in Oct/ Nov because I still don't feel all that safe on the TTC yet in the evening, especially when their union took a pro - "Vax is my choice" stand. That concern was doubled when Ford basically told all the anti-vaxxers they can ride out being responsible because by March it will all be over.
Its mentally still a thing.