Manning at TFC - on December 31, 2021

[PizzaEatingYeti]

I'm a betting guy for the last 21 years, making now in sports betting on yearly average about the same as in my regular, 8 hour job, so I can't stop myself doing this post.

I am giving in this poll 2 odds (this is what I figured out) on what is the probability of Manning being in the same power position concerning TFC at 12 PM ET, on December 31, 2021 like he is right now, on August 31.

For non bettors, the owerwhelming majority of this forum:

-160 odds mean that if you bet (risk) $100, if your bet is a winner, you will be returned your $100 (your initial risk) + $62.50 (you winnings) = total $162.50
+140 odds mean that if you bet (risk) $100, if your bet is a winner, you will be returned your $100 (your initial risk) + $140 (you winnings) = total $240

So... post your bets!

[levyashin]

I went back and forth a few times before going for the status quo.
If this poll was about Curtis I would definitely have gone the other way.
This is going on past experience of the workings of MLSE.

[PizzaEatingYeti]

I went back and forth a few times before going for the status quo.
If this poll was about Curtis I would definitely have gone the other way.
This is going on past experience of the workings of MLSE.

Yeah, I hear you. Sadly...
I was the first one I voted on him still having same position.

[jabbronies]

He's staying.

He had a bad year in 2018; turned it around in 2019 (finals) and 2020 (2nd in MLS while being displaced from home for 3/4 of the year)

They are not going to fire him because he's had a bad year without giving him the chance to turn it around like he previously did. Especially considering the covid hurdles our team has endured.
Yes, Stink Foot MTL are doing better than us, but they were also shit for the past 5 years - they were due for a fraction of success.

Even then, he's not on the hook like everyone thinks he is considering the success he's had in his 6-ish? years being here.

[ensco]

Interesing poll and I think you have the pricing right.

My thinking is based solely on suit politics. I think Friisdahl needs to assert himself and do something here given that he hasn't made a change to any of his direct reports in six years. People are starting to get the idea he doesn't work.

Napoleon used to hang a general every three months. Pour encourager les autres.

Also, the Ali Curtis hiring and then re-up was soooooo bad that letting Manning skate sends the wrong message to the others at MLSE.

But I also agree that status quo is the favoured choice. It will be easy to make covid excuses, which are genuine (and the Raps will be making).

I think the question turns on the caliber of replacement MLSE might find. Very hard to know the answer to that.

[ag futbol]

He's staying.

He had a bad year in 2018; turned it around in 2019 (finals) and 2020 (2nd in MLS while being displaced from home for 3/4 of the year)

They are not going to fire him because he's had a bad year without giving him the chance to turn it around like he previously did. Especially considering the covid hurdles our team has endured.
Yes, Stink Foot MTL are doing better than us, but they were also shit for the past 5 years - they were due for a fraction of success.

Even then, he's not on the hook like everyone thinks he is considering the success he's had in his 6-ish? years being here.

But does he stay? If there’s one thing this guy’s track record shows it’s that he jumps ship when there’s a chance of a failure on the horizon.

This year / Armas is probably the biggest scar on his resume to date. Does he double down and try to clean it up knowing if it doesn’t work this is his last president role? Not so sure. I think the smart money is he slides into a “B” market to prolong his career.

[jabbronies]

But does he stay? If there’s one thing this guy’s track record shows it’s that he jumps ship when there’s a chance of a failure on the horizon.

This year / Armas is probably the biggest scar on his resume to date. Does he double down and try to clean it up knowing if it doesn’t work this is his last president role? Not so sure. I think the smart money is he slides into a “B” market to prolong his career.

I don't think he is that type of guy who would snake away like that, but I don't know him personally and I don't know the specifics of his last exit.
But he was at RSL and it makes me wonder if he left there because he saw the ceiling / ambition of that opportunity being very limited. I wonder if was approached by TFC early and left RSL because of that? Tim L was open about his leaving the team so it was no secret that position was going to be available.

He came here, and

- He has the freedom to build a team as far as the league would let him in order to win on a regular basis (including maxing out DPs)
- He had an ongoing stadium improvement project which he's going to be seeing the through to the World Cup.
- The Argos / CFL is a nice project to have under your belt.

Unless another "Vanney /LA" scenrio (rebuild the league gem) or a "Bez/CBUS" (build a stadium in your hometown) presents itself, why would he leave here?

[jloome]

I don't think he is that type of guy who would snake away like that, but I don't know him personally and I don't know the specifics of his last exit.
But he was at RSL and it makes me wonder if he left there because he saw the ceiling / ambition of that opportunity being very limited. I wonder if was approached by TFC early and left RSL because of that? Tim L was open about his leaving the team so it was no secret that position was going to be available.

He came here, and

- He has the freedom to build a team as far as the league would let him in order to win on a regular basis (including maxing out DPs)
- He had an ongoing stadium improvement project which he's going to be seeing the through to the World Cup.
- The Argos / CFL is a nice project to have under your belt.

Unless another "Vanney /LA" scenrio (rebuild the league gem) or a "Bez/CBUS" (build a stadium in your hometown) presents itself, why would he leave here?

If he feels heat from above suggesting his leash on failure is short, the “suit politics” Ensco is referring to is the ability of executives to recognize when staying may hurt their rep. Top Suits never assume they’ll stay longer than a few years, because to do so means passing up potentially more lucrative opportunities to profit with less risk.

It’s very rarely about loyalty at that level.

[ag futbol]

Unless another "Vanney /LA" scenrio (rebuild the league gem) or a "Bez/CBUS" (build a stadium in your hometown) presents itself, why would he leave here?

Because he likes continuing to have a paycheque. He screws this up, his career in the C-suite is over.

[jabbronies]

If he feels heat from above suggesting his leash on failure is short, the “suit politics” Ensco is referring to is the ability of executives to recognize when staying may hurt their rep. Top Suits never assume they’ll stay longer than a few years, because to do so means passing up potentially more lucrative opportunities to profit with less risk.

It’s very rarely about loyalty at that level.

I agree it has nothing to do with loyalty, but unless he goes to a better league, I don't see him leaving on his own for a better job than this one.

Most successful MLS clubs at this point, like a Seattle, are already set it and forget. no challenges there.
maybe he goes to an expansion team in a good market that needs a stadium? or an existing dinosaur club like New England to rebuild them into a proper club? (doubt that)

Anyways - he ain't leaving on his own for no reason.

I highly doubt MLSE are firing him - look at Brendan Shanahan's record and he's still here.

[ensco]

I agree that Manning would take some sort of job at USSF or similar if he could engineer something suitable, sure. I have argued before that would be his preferred endgame, and TFC sure has been a USSF team through and through.

A lot in terms of his game plan depends on his personal situation (eg kids schools etc) so inevitably hard to know from outside.

I think the situation at MLSE must be very difficult for Manning. TFC has to have lost a lot of money in the last 5-6 years, with the payroll we have had. Leiweke's “take the losses to build asset value” game plan, which Manning inherited and was asked to managed through, isn’t working if the team is irrelevant and getting darts level ratings on TV. Manning can try to say whatever he wants to say about the surprise 2019 run, Covid, it wasn’t my strategy, etc… it might work, sure. But he signed Poz and Yefe and Curtis, and the current level of irrelevance is quite damning, and his bosses are experts in TV irrelevance.

[jloome]

A lot in terms of his game plan depends on his personal situation (eg kids schools etc) so inevitably hard to know from outside.

His youngest son just left the TFC academy for a soccer ride at Amherst, so they have no school ties to TO. If his wife wants to go back to the U.S., the timing would work for them.

He moved sideways to a different sports league before when he took over the Eagles' ticket sales after Tampa, so he's done it before. He was out of soccer for six or seven years, as I recall.

Execs are execs; if they think he can develop business relationships they won't mind which sport he's coming from, and I imagine he's got options or contacts who can provide options already.