View Poll Results: When BMO opens up for TFC games?

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    The main thing that will determine if Rogers Centre or BMO open up is 2 fold:

    1) Are they just going to open to the teams to play
    2) Will there, and eventually how many, fans will there be in the stands

    For #1 there is an added factor for all levels of government to consider:
    The Toronto Teams are in Florida, and many members are American citizens (or have US green cards to play) ... this means that within the next month they will all be vaccinated via the US efforts.
    As long as the majority of the teams get their shots then I think the Jays and TFC are back by June with no fans in the stands (and of course still following Canadian public health guidelines/League guidelines when they are here)
    Both TFC and the Jays have an advantage in that they have accommodation for the visiting teams that will keep them close to where they are playing (with certain amenities).

    As for #2 - Fans going back in - I don't think we'll get there this year (just to be really cautious and account to any other issues that might creep up).
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    I could see them only letting in vaccinated fans and those that have had a negative covid test in the last 3 days similar to what they are doing in NYC with the Yankees and Mets among other teams. The big thing is one is not fully available yet in our country and the other will cost you, so would MLSE, Rogers etc swill see it as being worth it, but by late summer I could see it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cas87 View Post
    The main thing that will determine if Rogers Centre or BMO open up is 2 fold:

    1) Are they just going to open to the teams to play
    2) Will there, and eventually how many, fans will there be in the stands

    For #1 there is an added factor for all levels of government to consider:
    The Toronto Teams are in Florida, and many members are American citizens (or have US green cards to play) ... this means that within the next month they will all be vaccinated via the US efforts.
    As long as the majority of the teams get their shots then I think the Jays and TFC are back by June with no fans in the stands (and of course still following Canadian public health guidelines/League guidelines when they are here)
    Both TFC and the Jays have an advantage in that they have accommodation for the visiting teams that will keep them close to where they are playing (with certain amenities).

    As for #2 - Fans going back in - I don't think we'll get there this year (just to be really cautious and account to any other issues that might creep up).
    if fans aren't back in the stadium this year then the vaccine hasn't worked (and it is working very well, by all accounts).

    if there are playoff games in toronto, there will be a full stadium for them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by leedsandTFC View Post
    if fans aren't back in the stadium this year then the vaccine hasn't worked (and it is working very well, by all accounts).

    if there are playoff games in toronto, there will be a full stadium for them.
    It's not efficacy of the vaccine. It's having enough runway to ramp up of the vaccination program enough to fight back the big numbers we have now and come down the other side in time for late summer/fall. Everything would need to go perfectly right now to get 35,000 people into BMO this year. I can't see us going from max 5 people outdoors on May 1 (and probably longer) to 35,000 by October. Chances are extremely slim now, especially with risk averse governments. Hopefully they will at least get to play at BMO with no fans this summer as Cas87 said.
    Last edited by Canary10; 04-01-2021 at 01:34 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Canary10 View Post
    It's not efficacy of the vaccine. It's having enough runway to ramp up of the vaccination program enough to fight back the big numbers we have now and come down the other side in time for late summer/fall. Everything would need to go perfectly right now to get 35,000 people into BMO this year. I can't see us going from max 5 people outdoors on May 1 (and probably longer) to 35,000 by October. Chances are extremely slim now, especially with risk averse governments. Hopefully they will at least get to play at BMO with no fans this summer as Cas87 said.
    we're approaching 100K+ vaccinations a day right now and keep increasing, and based on CDC data, vaccinated people dont carry COVID.

    once you get a certain inflection point of vaccines, cases will absolutely plummet and the R value will be so low that the disease will die out naturally.

    we're going to hit that inflection point in the next 3 months.

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    Quote Originally Posted by leedsandTFC View Post
    we're approaching 100K+ vaccinations a day right now and keep increasing, and based on CDC data, vaccinated people dont carry COVID.

    once you get a certain inflection point of vaccines, cases will absolutely plummet and the R value will be so low that the disease will die out naturally.

    we're going to hit that inflection point in the next 3 months.
    We have yet to hit 100,000/day and the ramp up has been slow. This is a government not particularly good at implementation - the only thing I think is certain is that it'll be slower than we think. We have about 12 million Ontarians over the age of 18. If we could actually get to that 100,000 a day and keep that average consistently 7 days a week it would already take till the end of July to vaccinate everyone in Ontario over 18 once. We also don't know where the inflection point is. We still don't really know the impact of variants....lots of unknowns.

    It's great that you're optimistic, i'm not feeling that. I don't think we'll get to a point where government gives the ok to a packed crowd of 35,000 plus this year. They'll be risk averse even if everything goes right. It'll be easier to say next year.

    Anyway, we'll see....

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    Talking about having 5,000-10,000 fans in the stands is a completely different beast than having a full stadium. As i have said, you could have vaccinated people and those with a recent negative test. If the border opens, I do not see anything else that could prevent games from being played here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Red CB Toronto View Post
    Talking about having 5,000-10,000 fans in the stands is a completely different beast than having a full stadium. As i have said, you could have vaccinated people and those with a recent negative test. If the border opens, I do not see anything else that could prevent games from being played here.
    I don't think we have a way to prove that yet, and probably not in the near future. As I understand it, there are lots of discussions about how to go about proving your vaccinations (and privacy issues, etc that go into that). The certificate my family members who have been vaccinated received could be made by anyone with Word.

    I agree though we could at least have games at BMO if we could get a border agreement.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Canary10 View Post
    I don't think we have a way to prove that yet, and probably not in the near future. As I understand it, there are lots of discussions about how to go about proving your vaccinations (and privacy issues, etc that go into that). The certificate my family members who have been vaccinated received could be made by anyone with Word.

    I agree though we could at least have games at BMO if we could get a border agreement.
    We have seen people returning to games in the US and spread have not been attributed to those in attendance. In New York today you either had to have been vaccinated or have had a negative test in the last 72 hours. New York actually is using a vaccination passport app, that you down load and it is scanned when you enter the stadium. On the other hand other parts of the US are the wild west including in Texas where the the Rangers will have a sold out stadium.

    Remember The Man, The Legend, The Goal 5-12-07 and All That #9 Left On The Pitch, Thanks For The Memories !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Red CB Toronto View Post
    We have seen people returning to games in the US and spread have not been attributed to those in attendance. In New York today you either had to have been vaccinated or have had a negative test in the last 72 hours. New York actually is using a vaccination passport app, that you down load and it is scanned when you enter the stadium. On the other hand other parts of the US are the wild west including in Texas where the the Rangers will have a sold out stadium.
    Yeah that’s great. It shouldn’t be that difficult but if the Ontario government has a role in it here it’ll take a while! We treat health information like it’s sacred. Which may be good, but slows things down when you need quicker solutions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Canary10 View Post
    We have yet to hit 100,000/day and the ramp up has been slow. This is a government not particularly good at implementation - the only thing I think is certain is that it'll be slower than we think. We have about 12 million Ontarians over the age of 18. If we could actually get to that 100,000 a day and keep that average consistently 7 days a week it would already take till the end of July to vaccinate everyone in Ontario over 18 once. We also don't know where the inflection point is. We still don't really know the impact of variants....lots of unknowns.

    It's great that you're optimistic, i'm not feeling that. I don't think we'll get to a point where government gives the ok to a packed crowd of 35,000 plus this year. They'll be risk averse even if everything goes right. It'll be easier to say next year.

    Anyway, we'll see....
    you don't need everyone, you need 80%+ of adults, and we'll hit that in mid june.

    we do know about variants, vaccines work on them, and this news is a game changer:

    https://fortune.com/2021/04/01/its-o...smit-covid-19/

    in last two weeks we've gone from 40K to 80K a day, and toronto just opened up mass vaccination centres to everyone over 60.

    this will be largely over as a pandemic faster than people think (not to say we wont be dealing with psychological, economic impacts for years to come).

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    The vaccine news today is really encouraging - not only because my age group has an option now.
    They are starting to allow local hospitals to target areas where essential service workers live.
    Stage 2, which is where we are, contains the populations with the vast majority of current cases - essential workers (ignore all the talk about "people misbehaving" & "getting together" - no don't do that but the people getting it now are essential workers who can's stay home). IF people get vaccinated in the essential services areas then by the end of May the cases will plummet.

    April is going to be really cruddy though.

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    I agree the next 4-6 weeks will be awful, but I feel that will have little to do with BMO field attendance in the late summer or fall. The measures announced for Saturday won't do much. They may slightly slow the increase in cases that we would have had otherwise, in areas that were red or orange up to now, but were already exploding -- yet they won't actually stop the growth or lead to a decline. But August / September is too far away to be impacted by this wave.

    I'm hoping the better weather and people going outside will help more. As well as some people getting worried about stories from the hospitals, where over 20% of COVID-19 patients are already below 50, and close to 40% are below 60. (Both those numbers and percentages will continue to increase in the coming weeks.)

    OgtheDim, totally agree that "essential workers" and risky workplaces play a huge role -- and that targeted vaccination will help there. ("Essential workers" always deserves quotation marks, because it still includes all kinds of onsite office work and similar things which could be done more safely, as well as non-essential manufacturing, construction and other activities which should at least be monitored & enforced closely, but aren't.) But it really is All Of The Above -- workers getting infected on the job & spreading it at home; but also lots of unsafe private activities. I directly know so many people from various economic backgrounds that meet with family and friends from multiple households in unsafe environments. Again, maybe better weather and a bit of fear will help with that.

    But for good news: Canada is now vaccinating at the third-highest rate of all G20 nations, over 200k per day, and just starting to ramp up. (Think about it, that's a rate equivalent to 2 million doses per day in the US, and is significant.) Also the news mentioned above is awesome -- that vaccination also drastically reduces transmission. There will be more hiccups for sure, e.g. a J&J subcontractor destroyed 15 million vaccine doses by mistake -- holy fuck -- but I still think the US vaccine plants are going to send Canada a huge whack of doses in June to mop things up. I'm sticking with my prediction of limited BMO attendance sometime in August.
    Last edited by Auzzy; 04-02-2021 at 02:49 AM.

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    An awful lot turns on what happens in the EU over the next two weeks. The political situation in almost all the major EU countries is unstable, and people there want real vaccine export bans.

    (If you think people are angry here about the slow vaccination rollout... imagine Canada made tons of vaccine and were exporting almost all of it, and our politicians were allowing it.)
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    The vaccine news today is really encouraging - not only because my age group has an option now.
    They are starting to allow local hospitals to target areas where essential service workers live.
    Stage 2, which is where we are, contains the populations with the vast majority of current cases - essential workers (ignore all the talk about "people misbehaving" & "getting together" - no don't do that but the people getting it now are essential workers who can's stay home). IF people get vaccinated in the essential services areas then by the end of May the cases will plummet.

    April is going to be really cruddy though.
    These are the areas with vaccination deserts currently. The vaccination roll-out has been bungled which is why we won’t come anywhere near 80% of the adult population vaccinated by June. We have a vaccination hesitancy problem too, at least amongst the age eligible population now. Hopefully that will change once we get into ages with school aged children.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Canary10 View Post
    These are the areas with vaccination deserts currently. The vaccination roll-out has been bungled which is why we won’t come anywhere near 80% of the adult population vaccinated by June. We have a vaccination hesitancy problem too, at least amongst the age eligible population now. Hopefully that will change once we get into ages with school aged children.

    The biggest vaccine deserts were Brampton & the North West of Toronto - almost every pharmacy of the big 3 chains that is in those areas was added yesterday. The hospital targetting of specific area is huge though - this means the province is reducing its involvement at the local level as to who gets what. The micro managing made sense when there was little supply but not anymore.

    As for hesitancy, yes its there. But the biggest thing that is dropping that hesitancy in the States is seeing people getting it. The passport / proof of immunization demand is coming - and anybody who travels outside of Europe & North America knows these exist already. When work asks, people will do.

    I agree with ensco in that the biggest potential roadblock in all this is the potential for European export bans - but looking at the stats, they seem to have gotten back on track as far as amount of vaccinations per day. There was a wobble a couple of weeks ago as UK buys took up a lot of the European stock & that made them all angry but that has ceased. Here's where that data is available.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    The biggest vaccine deserts were Brampton & the North West of Toronto - almost every pharmacy of the big 3 chains that is in those areas was added yesterday. The hospital targetting of specific area is huge though - this means the province is reducing its involvement at the local level as to who gets what. The micro managing made sense when there was little supply but not anymore.

    As for hesitancy, yes its there. But the biggest thing that is dropping that hesitancy in the States is seeing people getting it. The passport / proof of immunization demand is coming - and anybody who travels outside of Europe & North America knows these exist already. When work asks, people will do.

    I agree with ensco in that the biggest potential roadblock in all this is the potential for European export bans - but looking at the stats, they seem to have gotten back on track as far as amount of vaccinations per day. There was a wobble a couple of weeks ago as UK buys took up a lot of the European stock & that made them all angry but that has ceased. Here's where that data is available.
    I thought that’s what you meant when you said the areas where essential workers live. Also northeast Scarborough. Apologies if I misunderstood. Glad we’re doing something to target those areas finally.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    An awful lot turns on what happens in the EU over the next two weeks. The political situation in almost all the major EU countries is unstable, and people there want real vaccine export bans.

    (If you think people are angry here about the slow vaccination rollout... imagine Canada made tons of vaccine and were exporting almost all of it, and our politicians were allowing it.)
    I agree there's lots of anger. Peak grumpiness in Germany these days -- but vaccine exports are only a small part of that. (Politicians of a certain ruling party making money from their side jobs with PPE companies don't help.)

    EU is not "exporting almost all of it." The EU is using 58% of their production internally, and exporting 42%. More of their anger is reserved towards the UK, who are exporting 0% of their internal vaccine production, in addition to being the largest importer of vaccines from the EU, while also crowing about the success of their vaccination effort and saying it proves that Brexit was the right thing. Triple slap in the face.

    Anger also towards AZ who are massively breaching their EU supply guarantees while simultaneously fulfilling orders from outside of the EU. Combined with anger towards exports to countries that are way ahead of the EU in vaccinations. (E.g. I believe Israel got all their Pfizer doses from the EU. Now it looks like Israeli deliveries & vaccinations have significantly slowed once they got past 100 doses per 100 population, of these two-dose vaccines.)

    I don't think Canada is scheduled to get any AZ from the EU? I believe there's less anger now towards Pfizer/Biontech and Moderna, which is what Canada is getting from the EU (at least after those companies got past their earlier plant retooling and supply chain problems). And the important people know that Canada placed their orders 3 months before the EU, which helped to kick-start the EU production. Also the companies and countries want to be biotech exporters, so are wary of being too restrictive.

    But I do agree that Canada could still get side-swiped, especially if the Canada vaccine effort should get way ahead of the EU leaders, or if other production problems arise.

    https://www.statista.com/chart/24555...-and-exported/

    https://www.statista.com/chart/24458...ccine-exports/

    Note also that the EU imports raw materials for the vaccines, so export bans could boomerang.
    Last edited by Auzzy; 04-02-2021 at 02:08 PM.

  19. #49
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    ^ I stand corrected re Euro vaccine exports. I saw something elsewhere but it was just wrong.

    Excellent summary.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by Auzzy View Post
    I don't think Canada is scheduled to get any AZ from the EU?
    Apart from Biden's loan to Canada, we've been told it's not coming from the US, at least from now. That leaves India (which has engaged in some vaccine nationalism of their own) and Belgium (EU). The stuff we already got from India (a generic version of the AZ with a different name) was the almost expired vaccine from the Covax program. (Some other countries have licensed producing AZ, but that's for their own domestic use, I believe.)

    I suspect that if we get any more after the Biden shipment, it will be from Belgium. However, who knows what's going to happen?
    Last edited by Oldtimer; 04-03-2021 at 12:48 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    Apart from Biden's loan to Canada, we've been told it's not coming from the US, at least from now. That leaves India (which has engaged in some vaccine nationalism of their own) and Belgium (EU). The stuff we already got from India (a generic version of the AZ with a different name) was the almost expired vaccine from the Covax program. (Some other countries have licensed producing AZ, but that's for their own domestic use, I believe.)

    I suspect that if we get any more after the Biden shipment, it will be from Belgium. However, who knows what's going to happen?
    Actually 20 million or 84% of Canada’s AZ doses are contracted to come from the US. The 1.5 million doses received from the US so far were an advance delivery on that order.

    Canada is also getting 2 million doses of the identical CoviShield vaccine directly from the Serum Institute of India. The 500k doses received at the beginning of March were part of that order, directly from them, not via COVAX. Of the 500k, 300k were set to expire on April 2nd, and the provinces stated that they were able to use those up in time. For India it was useful that Canada had the infrastructure to use up doses quickly, as other customers had not ramped up vaccinations quickly enough and were not ready to receive large orders. The other 200k already delivered are good to use until the end of June.

    Canada’s remaining 1.9 million AZ doses are contracted to come from COVAX. The COVAX deliveries will start next week.

    Canada is not scheduled to receive any AZ doses directly from Europe.

    RE possible delays: The AZ vaccine has not been approved yet in the US, although they already have many million doses in storage. Two days ago Fauci said the US will probably not need AZ at all, due to other vaccines already approved and on order. I suspect the US will hold onto part of their potential AZ order for a bit longer, in case there are unexpected major problems with other vaccines. They will probably release the rest of the 20 million Canadian order bit by bit, when Canada needs it & to ensure things are used up well in advance of expiry dates.

    Canada was scheduled to receive the remaining 1.5 million AZ / CoviShield doses directly from India by the end of May. That is currently on hold as India focuses on their domestic issues, but there’s still lots of time before May, we shall see.

    We’ll also see how many Canadians want to take AZ and how many doses we actually need. A bunch of my colleagues at work already got AZ as the initial 60-65 crowd. My wife is registered among the new 55+ group for AZ and we’re waiting to hear. With Toronto & other cities now offering Pfizer & Moderna to everyone 60+, and AZ currently banned for those under 55 like me, there may not be that much demand.

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/corona...cine-1.5371335

    And: https://globalnews.ca/news/7728936/a...xpiry-april-2/
    Last edited by Auzzy; 04-03-2021 at 10:16 PM.

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    I actually don't have a problem with a proof of vaccination 'App/Passport', I know people will gripe about it, but we needed a proof of vaccine record for our kids when they went to school, it was just the norm, I don't remember anyone complaining about that. Happy Easter

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    MLS teams are starting to get vaccinated - Cinci & Inter Miami yesterday. Teams are advertising this along the lines of doing their civic duty.

    This will make a difference as to whom is allowed to come here. Likely will see players & staff without vaccines not being allowed to travel with their teams - a version of the visa issue some players with legal issues have had.

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    The Reds have started to get vaccinated. An initial group including Ali Curtis have got their first dose. The rest of the players and staff who did not make the trip to Mexico were getting there's today and the rest will get it on Friday after returning back to Florida. I hope this is a first step in allowing the Reds to head back to Toronto at some point not too far down the line. I assume the same is happening with the other MLS teams.


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    over 212K vaccines in last two days and steadily adding more eligible people every day!

    finally going at a good pace

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    Quote Originally Posted by leedsandTFC View Post
    over 212K vaccines in last two days and steadily adding more eligible people every day!

    finally going at a good pace
    Let's hope the EU doesn't notice that we've have significantly overtaken them in vaccination, and blocks exports.

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    Yeh, the pace locally has been good because they finally got down to an age group who grew up with computers in schools. Still a pain in the ass to figure it out without guidance.

    I know some people are saying July for fans but the 4 month gap still cries out August to me.


    May games - everybody in the stands is over 80 and lives in a LTCH
    June games - add in medical workers & +75
    July games - add in 55+ and a few people outside of the the GTA
    August - add in 35+
    Last edited by OgtheDim; 04-08-2021 at 06:25 PM.

  28. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    Yeh, the pace locally has been good because they finally got down to an age group who grew up with computers in schools. Still a pain in the ass to figure it out without guidance.

    I know some people are saying July for fans but the 4 month gap still cries out August to me.


    May games - everybody in the stands is over 80 and lives in a LTCH
    June games - add in medical workers & +75
    July games - add in 55+ and a few people outside of the the GTA
    August - add in 35+
    You're not vaccinated until you have two doses (unless you get J&J). September is when I expect to see BMO open to fans.
    MLS is a tough, physical league, that emphasizes speed, and features plastic fields, grueling travel, extreme weather, and incompetent refs. - NK Toronto

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    You're not vaccinated until you have two doses (unless you get J&J). September is when I expect to see BMO open to fans.
    lol, 1 dose is 80% protection, 2nd brings it up to 90% for most.

    expect to see the deaths and ICU entries plummet after most seniors are vaccinated.

    we're already seeing stagnant deaths as cases skyrocket, due to the number of seniors vaccinated.

    this ford govt will use plummeting ICU and death rates to open up btw.

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    Not really basing it on any numbers or anything, but I get the feeling they won't re-open everything until next year. I bet they'll feel it's all too risky and messy.

 

 

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