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    I wonder as things progress if insurance companies will require screening vaccine passports to enter large venues when capacity numbers rise and people sit closer to each other. Without getting into a 'for' or 'against' vaccine passports/certificates... I believe that if they are required, it will be a gong show as we wait for the government to develop something. Other countries have started and it could become the norm for international travel.... but our leaders will wait until people start getting refused entry before they start a system.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Afra View Post
    I wonder as things progress if insurance companies will require screening vaccine passports to enter large venues when capacity numbers rise and people sit closer to each other. Without getting into a 'for' or 'against' vaccine passports/certificates... I believe that if they are required, it will be a gong show as we wait for the government to develop something. Other countries have started and it could become the norm for international travel.... but our leaders will wait until people start getting refused entry before they start a system.
    Personally, I don't see vaccine passports being required for local events - I think that would be a shit show. The province will likely just wait until we are at around 80% vaccinated (or whatever the target number is) before opening things up more widely.

    International travel is another story. Again, hopefully someone is considering this, because I can see some countries requiring vaccines for travel. Personally, they have the electronic travel authorization/electronic Visas that they can already electronically associate with your passport. They should be able to create an electronic vaccine authorization that they can associate with your passport.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JonO View Post
    Personally, I don't see vaccine passports being required for local events - I think that would be a shit show. The province will likely just wait until we are at around 80% vaccinated (or whatever the target number is) before opening things up more widely.

    International travel is another story. Again, hopefully someone is considering this, because I can see some countries requiring vaccines for travel. Personally, they have the electronic travel authorization/electronic Visas that they can already electronically associate with your passport. They should be able to create an electronic vaccine authorization that they can associate with your passport.
    Either way looks like a potentially long wait at the moment. I sure miss being in the stands and will gladly support as soon as they let me..... my wife gets annoyed when I am yelling and singing at the TV all the time!
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    based on that article, there could be games with limited capacity a lot sooner than anyone anticipated...

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    If you're missing BMO, take a look at what some fans made (10 photos)

    https://www.instagram.com/p/CMfA3J7BFpd/

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    Quote Originally Posted by RedsYNWA View Post
    Well the way our boy toy Trudeau is going.... we might catch up to South Sudan when it comes to vaccinations
    We will be back at BMO in 2022
    This is unfair, you know that Canada is tied to offshore vaccine manufacturing, I worked in the pharmaceutical sector in a little section of Mississauga referred to 'Pill Hill' in the 1970's when Canada had plenty of pharmaceutical firms in country, the firms where asking for huge tax breaks for R and D, but both Liberal and PC governments caved to public whining and pressure not to give the tax breaks, so the pharmaceutical companies left the country. The reality is Canada has to wait it's turn. Just my opinion of the 'Blame Game', have a great day

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    Quote Originally Posted by rydermike View Post
    If you're missing BMO, take a look at what some fans made (10 photos)

    https://www.instagram.com/p/CMfA3J7BFpd/
    This is way too cool.
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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post

    I still would not hold my breath. With the province officially declaring a start of the third wave today and the fact that the varients seem to be on the rise, I just wouldn't get my hopes up too much. Nothing will change until the border situation changes and who knows when that will be. Even then with the border open to allow teams to travel in, it will still be up to local health officials to determine if fans can attend games. I cannot recall where I saw it as it was back in the summer last year but concerts and major events would be in the group of last things to open up. The city has also cancelled all outdoor events out to July first (including Canada day celebrations) which at best pushes out having fans in the stadium until at least the end of July or early to mid August at the earliest. I am cautiously optimistic but in reality I am not expecting to be back inside BMO before 2022

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    Quote Originally Posted by rydermike View Post
    If you're missing BMO, take a look at what some fans made (10 photos)

    https://www.instagram.com/p/CMfA3J7BFpd/
    Holy accurate looking

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    I agree !! even if borders open up, as we all know toronto and Ontario are wayyyy behind compared to the rest of the country on opening things up and having business pick up so we'll see how it goes, but 2022 or hey 2023 maybe sooooo sad were so slow and dragging this out


    Quote Originally Posted by Blindside16 View Post
    I still would not hold my breath. With the province officially declaring a start of the third wave today and the fact that the varients seem to be on the rise, I just wouldn't get my hopes up too much. Nothing will change until the border situation changes and who knows when that will be. Even then with the border open to allow teams to travel in, it will still be up to local health officials to determine if fans can attend games. I cannot recall where I saw it as it was back in the summer last year but concerts and major events would be in the group of last things to open up. The city has also cancelled all outdoor events out to July first (including Canada day celebrations) which at best pushes out having fans in the stadium until at least the end of July or early to mid August at the earliest. I am cautiously optimistic but in reality I am not expecting to be back inside BMO before 2022
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blindside16 View Post
    I still would not hold my breath. With the province officially declaring a start of the third wave today and the fact that the varients seem to be on the rise, I just wouldn't get my hopes up too much. Nothing will change until the border situation changes and who knows when that will be. Even then with the border open to allow teams to travel in, it will still be up to local health officials to determine if fans can attend games. I cannot recall where I saw it as it was back in the summer last year but concerts and major events would be in the group of last things to open up. The city has also cancelled all outdoor events out to July first (including Canada day celebrations) which at best pushes out having fans in the stadium until at least the end of July or early to mid August at the earliest. I am cautiously optimistic but in reality I am not expecting to be back inside BMO before 2022
    If I was Joe Biden, no way would I open up the border anytime soon. The US does in one day as many vaccinations as Canada has done total from December until now. We'd have to have a monumental change in the amount of vaccines that we are importing to get to a fall re-opening.
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    I dont expect the border to be open not before fall.

    Though this might change pending how the spring roll out of vaccine goes in Canada and there is a big pressure to open by summer for tourists.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    If I was Joe Biden, no way would I open up the border anytime soon. The US does in one day as many vaccinations as Canada has done total from December until now. We'd have to have a monumental change in the amount of vaccines that we are importing to get to a fall re-opening.
    It's a two way street. Canada also has to agree to open the border to the US, which is still getting 50,000-60,000 new cases a day. A big variable is how fast vaccination brings those cases down in the US.

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    Biden administration basically said yesterday that once the US is done vaccinations, they will be chugging their capacity all at us & Mexico pronto - they want that border open ASAP for trade.

    Euro zone also beginning to institute a vaccination passport (something many of us would know with the yellow papers we used to have with us).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    If I was Joe Biden, no way would I open up the border anytime soon. The US does in one day as many vaccinations as Canada has done total from December until now. We'd have to have a monumental change in the amount of vaccines that we are importing to get to a fall re-opening.

    we have over 1 million per week scheduled for delivery every week into the country, the province's plan based on vaccine delivery is to vaccinate almost 10 mill by july.

    people will be surprised on here, we'll have limited capacity by julyish likely.

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    There are big unknowns here that will drive this

    - what is the delivery schedule of the J&J vaccine?
    - is Europe about to stop exporting altogether? (This is a MAJOR issue over there)
    - is this US really going to just ship excess vaccine? That isn’t the US health system's usual model, I’d expect they could also simply make Canadians and Mexicans of means visit them to get the shots - if you think there are 20M Mexicans/Canadians who would pay $100 for that, that's 2 billion dollars in it for them if they do it that way)

    You tell me the answer the these questions, I will tell you whether it's August 2021 or March 2022
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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    There are big unknowns here that will drive this

    - what is the delivery schedule of the J&J vaccine?
    - is Europe about to stop exporting altogether? (This is a MAJOR issue over there)
    - is this US really going to just ship excess vaccine? That isn’t the US health system's usual model, I’d expect they could also simply make Canadians and Mexicans of means visit them to get the shots - if you think there are 20M Mexicans/Canadians who would pay $100 for that, that's 2 billion dollars in it for them if they do it that way)

    You tell me the answer the these questions, I will tell you whether it's August 2021 or March 2022
    $100/shot + travel cost + "quarantine" upon return = lots of time and money. But the more importantly, what are the costs for the US to distribute and administer the vaccine? I think the cost of a shot is $20 on its own.

    I think the more likely scenario is that they will sell any excess doses to us and Mexico (and others). From what I could gather online, Pfizer is manufacturing (or has at least pledged to manufacture) about $50 mil doses/month for the US. (Disclaimer - not 100% sure if this is accurate). So - I am not sure when this actually gets to us, but the simplest way is simply to sell it directly to CA/MX.

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    Quote Originally Posted by leedsandTFC View Post
    we have over 1 million per week scheduled for delivery every week into the country, the province's plan based on vaccine delivery is to vaccinate almost 10 mill by july.

    people will be surprised on here, we'll have limited capacity by julyish likely.
    From what we've seen so far, that the contracts are secret, and having seen some details of the one contract that only came out because a US company filed details (as part of their reporting requirements), the contracts do not provide for solid delivery amounts or dates, they are merely open orders that the companies will fill on a "reasonably commercially sensible" basis.

    Given that none of the previously "secured" amounts have actually come true from December until now, pardon me if I treat with extreme skepticism any dubious claims by the federal politicians. I'll be glad if I see it, but I'm certainly not expecting to get two doses (which is what counts for re-opening, not one dose) by July, probably not August, maybe not this September, and maybe not this year.

    The only exception is if Joe Biden bails us out, but even then Mexico has a more compelling case for US assistance than does Canada. I hope he sends some our way, but I'm not holding my breath.
    Last edited by Oldtimer; 03-18-2021 at 08:34 AM.
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    No word if there is an option to sign.

    Doesn't have to go through allocation order.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post



    No word if there is an option to sign.

    Doesn't have to go through allocation order.
    Should help a bit.
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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post



    No word if there is an option to sign.

    Doesn't have to go through allocation order.
    Still 2 weeks away

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    From what we've seen so far, that the contracts are secret, and having seen some details of the one contract that only came out because a US company filed details (as part of their reporting requirements), the contracts do not provide for solid delivery amounts or dates, they are merely open orders that the companies will fill on a "reasonably commercially sensible" basis.

    Given that none of the previously "secured" amounts have actually come true from December until now, pardon me if I treat with extreme skepticism any dubious claims by the federal politicians. I'll be glad if I see it, but I'm certainly not expecting to get two doses (which is what counts for re-opening, not one dose) by July, probably not August, maybe not this September, and maybe not this year.

    The only exception is if Joe Biden bails us out, but even then Mexico has a more compelling case for US assistance than does Canada. I hope he sends some our way, but I'm not holding my breath.
    I believe this is incorrect. The secured amounts first promised in December are arriving; in fact significantly more than that.

    There was a couple of weeks delay earlier in the year, as Pfizer upgraded their European plant and Moderna had problems securing raw materials in Europe. That messed up delivery estimates at the time, and affected many countries including Canada. Those delays will be more than made up by the end of March. The detailed delivery schedules are generally not contracted; I believe the quarterly amounts are under contract.

    One of the first & consistent promises I remember were a total of 6 million doses of Pfizer/BioNTech plus Moderna by the end of March. For example: "In total, six million Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are expected to be delivered to Canada by the end of March 2021."
    Published Dec. 15th: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mod...mber-1.5841929

    "Initially, the country is only anticipating receiving up to four million of those doses by March 2021." (That included only Pfizer/BioNTech.)
    Published Dec. 7th: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/corona...mber-1.5220229

    "Canada has contracted to receive two million doses from Moderna by the end of March, and 40 million by the end of 2021."
    Published Dec. 15th: https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/12/...ines-december/

    See also the chart & text in this article: a total of approx. 3 million vaccinated by the end of March (assuming full vaccination = two doses each = total of 6 million doses).
    Published Dec. 15th: https://www.macleans.ca/society/heal...-can-i-get-it/


    As of today, the feds have delivered almost 4.8 million vaccine doses to the provinces; already getting pretty darn close to the promised 6 million by end of March: https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html

    Of the total so far, 500k are AstraZeneca/COVISHIELD which are above the commitments made in December.

    Since approx. Feb. 18th, deliveries have been back on track to meet the end of March distribution deadline: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cov...b-18-1.5918175
    There have been no changes or delays since then, other than perhaps a day or two when there was a snowstorm in the US affecting flights.

    Recently there was a rumour of a new Moderna delay, but both Moderna and the government have denied that. We shall see.

    More details here: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...ollout.html#a4

    Pfizer/BioNTech distributed so far:3,140,664; forecast total before March 28: almost 4.8 million; 800k more than promised in December. (Plus another 1.2 million before April 4.)

    Moderna distributed so far: 1,128,300; forecast total before March 28: over 2.4 million; over 400k more than promised in December.

    So on schedule to have 1.7 million more vaccine doses available in Canada before the end of March than promised. Of course things could go wrong again, but deliveries since mid-February have been pretty well as planned. Even if delivery slips a bit, I believe we will easily hit 6 million doses before April.


    I don't believe the rest of your estimates are realistic either. It seems Canada will have enough doses of just Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna to give all Canadians over 16 two doses before the end of September. AstraZeneca/COVISHIELD and possibly J&J will likely allow that to be accelerated. As there is now significant competition, and Canada has approved all 4 of the major vaccines, the companies have an incentive to deliver as quickly as possible, or lose the sales to a competitor. (For example Canada has already negotiated accelerated deliveries of Pfizer between April and June, compared with earlier estimates.) Many things can still go wrong, but with AstraZeneca/COVISHIELD already flowing, and J&J waiting in the wings, there should at least be enough to meet the September promise.

    And as many have mentioned: all the US vaccine factories will have massive spare capacity starting May or June. They could prepare enough doses to finish off Canada within a few weeks. (And I don't believe Ensco's suggestion for a moment, that the US won't deliver to Canada and will expect Canadians to travel down there. Not with China and Russia playing vaccine diplomacy in a big way. The vaccine companies want to make money fast by selling millions of doses at a time before the competition does; while Biden & Co want to return to some international normalcy.)

    Hopefully the provinces can get all the doses into arms. However as we see Public Health, pharmacies and doctors ramping up, in addition to the hospitals which started the effort, I believe it will get done.

    Big question mark is still the kids. Only one vaccine allowed for 16+ yet; the others are 18+. Moderna started trials with 12-18 a while ago; and just added trials (incl. Canadian kids) 6 months to 12 years. I'm not sure about the other vaccines. I don't know if any of that will be sorted by the summer or fall.
    Last edited by Auzzy; 03-19-2021 at 02:35 AM.

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    despite the utter shambles of the Ontario vaccine programme, the pace of vaccines is picking up. i now am more optimistic than i was that BMO will open in September. All subject to the thrid wave of variants though, and that is going to be a closely run thing here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Auzzy View Post

    I don't believe the rest of your estimates are realistic either. It seems Canada will have enough doses of just Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna to give all Canadians over 16 two doses before the end of September. AstraZeneca/COVISHIELD and possibly J&J will likely allow that to be accelerated. As there is now significant competition, and Canada has approved all 4 of the major vaccines, the companies have an incentive to deliver as quickly as possible, or lose the sales to a competitor. (For example Canada has already negotiated accelerated deliveries of Pfizer between April and June, compared with earlier estimates.) Many things can still go wrong, but with AstraZeneca/COVISHIELD already flowing, and J&J waiting in the wings, there should at least be enough to meet the September promise.
    I hope you are right. I'm not all that confident, and even if they get a sudden flood of vaccine, it's unrealistic to expect the provinces to administer it in a few weeks. The US, which has managed vaccination much better than Canada can only do 3M per day. We would have to do 240K per day starting now to get it done by September. Give it some more delays at any point and it will become impossible.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    I hope you are right. I'm not all that confident, and even if they get a sudden flood of vaccine, it's unrealistic to expect the provinces to administer it in a few weeks. The US, which has managed vaccination much better than Canada can only do 3M per day. We would have to do 240K per day starting now to get it done by September. Give it some more delays at any point and it will become impossible.
    the US has been able to do 4.5 million in a day.

    ontario has capacity for 150K+ a day, and is ramping up towards that.

    "We would have to do 240K per day starting now to get it done by September"

    dunno where these random numbers are coming from, but ontario is starting to receive massive amounts of vaccines and probably 9.5 mill people (everyone over 60 + everyone with other medical conditions + people who can't work at home) will be vaccinated by late june.

    this is why they are probably planning limited capacity games over the summer, likely starting in July, moving to fuller stadium in the fall.

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    Quote Originally Posted by leedsandTFC View Post
    the US has been able to do 4.5 million in a day.

    ontario has capacity for 150K+ a day, and is ramping up towards that.

    "We would have to do 240K per day starting now to get it done by September"

    dunno where these random numbers are coming from, but ontario is starting to receive massive amounts of vaccines and probably 9.5 mill people (everyone over 60 + everyone with other medical conditions + people who can't work at home) will be vaccinated by late june.

    this is why they are probably planning limited capacity games over the summer, likely starting in July, moving to fuller stadium in the fall.
    Ontario did 61K yesterday. They could have done more if the vaccines were available.

    At current rates it would take 188 days to give one shot to Ontario (11.5M Ontario population / 61K), that works out to 376 days for 2 shots (source for 61K: Premier Ford's briefing March 19).

    So it will all depend on the ramp-up.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    Ontario did 61K yesterday. They could have done more if the vaccines were available.

    At current rates it would take 188 days to give one shot to Ontario (11.5M Ontario population / 61K), that works out to 376 days for 2 shots (source for 61K: Premier Ford's briefing March 19).

    So it will all depend on the ramp-up.

    and like 4 weeks ago, it was projected to take about 5 years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    I hope you are right. I'm not all that confident, and even if they get a sudden flood of vaccine, it's unrealistic to expect the provinces to administer it in a few weeks. The US, which has managed vaccination much better than Canada can only do 3M per day. We would have to do 240K per day starting now to get it done by September. Give it some more delays at any point and it will become impossible.
    Nothing is definite, but I'm feeling pretty hopefully. My mother-in-law got her first shot a couple of weeks ago. A couple of my colleagues just got their AZ shots for the 60-65 crowd. AZ now allowed for 65+ as well (as it has been in the UK throughout). 1.5 million additional doses of AZ arriving from the US before the end of March. Meaning a total of 9.2 million vaccine doses before the end of March: that's 3.2 million or over 50% more than promised by that date.


    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    Ontario did 61K yesterday. They could have done more if the vaccines were available.

    At current rates it would take 188 days to give one shot to Ontario (11.5M Ontario population / 61K), that works out to 376 days for 2 shots (source for 61K: Premier Ford's briefing March 19).

    So it will all depend on the ramp-up.
    LOL. Vaccines are available. Ontario had 360,000 unused doses this morning. 180,000 more doses of Pfizer arriving in Ontario by the end of this week (or may have already arrived). Ontario could have done at least 50% to 100% more per day over the last week w/o ever running out. Hopefully their registration website works a bit better now; I've heard horror stories from friends. Not sure why they waited until March 15th to set that up; could have been setup and tested last November. Meanwhile call center staff hired last minute with 2 hours of training, no idea how to deal with seniors with mobility issues etc. Luckily most of the public health units are still using their own registration systems so the provincial one isn't as badly overloaded as it could have been.

    But public health units and pharmacies will be able to do their thing; they're experienced. Probably Moderna available via pharmacies starting April as well. There will be hiccups for sure but it will get done.

 

 

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