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  1. #61
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    The thought process behind the "open the EPL" idea

    https://www.cpfc.co.uk/news/2020/may...rystal-palace/

    There's a bit of self serving in all this but one paragraph stod out to me

    First, we will not walk from this nightmare in one quick step to a bright future, the disease over, the world on the same track that it was before. Barring a miracle or a vaccine, the next months are likely to involve a game of cat and mouse with Covid-19, with restrictions ebbing and flowing. Every facet of normal behaviour is going to crawl slowly from the wreckage — we may have to develop a completely new normal for work and social places.
    Nice of somebody in sports to finally admit that "this" is not going to be "this" but more "changing constantly and us adapting as it all goes along and guess what, mistakes are going to happen"

    *************************

    I couple this bit of English plucky optimism with a document that came out this morning about Ontario - these are some of the brightest minds in Ontario epidemiology right now.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....29.20084475v1

    In particular, this:

    Using a model, we demonstrate the marked impact strong public health measures had in reducing ICU admissions and mortality in Ontario. We also show that this hard-earned success is tenuous: relaxation of physical distancing measures in the near-term is projected to result in a rapid resurgence of disease activity.

    In general, I always try to balance the "there is hope" with the "but if we still don't do x, we are so screwed".

    Anybody who says they know exactly what is going to happen is making a projection.

  2. #62
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    I think the NBA and NHL both end up in Vegas.
    Vegas has been completely closed. MGM biggest employer in state, both NHL and NBA have relationships with them. They can provide a 5 star experience for all teams, etc.
    The Raptors will not play another home game here until December.
    As for TFC, I think the MLS will have a similar plan. I think florida will be more likely, at the disney complex.
    There's too much money in NFL and college football for them to ba affected, so by Sept it'll be business as usual, pending a second wave.
    MLSE should offer a rebate option. Some fans need the funds, others will just say put it for my 2021 tix. That said, do they dare raise prices next year?

  3. #63
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    I follow the NBA closely and it's pretty much a lock that they are going to Disney World in Orlando, if they do go for it in July. The Vegas thing was the original idea because they do the summer league there, but....

    - effective quarantining is a major issue in Vegas or anywhere they cannot really “seal”
    - Disney World is empty and they can do the whole thing (games, hotels, commissary, practices) on 100% private property
    - NBA and Disney (who own ABC and ESPN) already have a huge relationship
    - Disney World has an amazing purpose built court and broadcast center, the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex, that can act as the main facility
    - the NBA can build whatever proper practice/game facilities they need (ie courts) in multiple ballrooms etc there

    If the NBA does it, that does not mean others will. For all other sports, the larger team sizes make the risk of infection during the tournaments much much higher.

    I think the NHL has an insurmountable logistical problem with this. Where are there enough ice sheets, in one place that can be sealed, especially in summer? The need for airtight “foolproof” quarantine in exposed environments makes it orders of magnitude harder for hockey.

    MLS can maybe pull it off, there are suburban/exurban places like Frisco with the right number of good fields, and big hotels close by, but the question is, why? This isn't an NBA playoff sprint, is this realistic for months? Especially given infection risk of larger teams... and also, why bother, if the TV dollars aren’t there?

    If I was to bet, I’d bet on the NBA doing it, and then the NFL going next (no way they miss a single game given billions of TV dollars at stake) in a place like Dallas.
    Last edited by ensco; 05-03-2020 at 09:25 PM.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

  4. #64
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    Bill Simmons, who has been the axe on the NBA summer plan, is this morning saying that everything is still up in the air, a moving target.

    Issue is what to do if someone tests positive in the middle of the tournament. Until they come up with an answer for that, none of it makes sense. (As someone pointed out, this is already upending the Bundesliga restart.)

    Seems like an impossible problem to solve, when you stop and think about it.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    Bill Simmons, who has been the axe on the NBA summer plan, is this morning saying that everything is still up in the air, a moving target.

    Issue is what to do if someone tests positive in the middle of the tournament. Until they come up with an answer for that, none of it makes sense. (As someone pointed out, this is already upending the Bundesliga restart.)

    Seems like an impossible problem to solve, when you stop and think about it.
    Interesting what bargaining power does for workers. If NBA stars were workers in a meat plant in the USA, or Alberta, they’d be making them work on a “let them die” approach. Hopefully the difficulties pro sports are having will bring some sanity to the regular world. We can only hope.

  6. #66
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    Also, if you read about previous pandemics, it is more likely than not that there will be a second wave. No one really knows, but it’s prudent to plan for that, not very smart to plan for “ its over now”

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    FWIW

    Best data aggregate I've seen for Ontario is found here, including a breakdown of LTC & hospitals & community cases.

    https://howsmyflattening.ca/#/dashboard/ontario


    If you have a family member in a LTCH, as staff or resident, my prayers. "Its over now" doesn't include there.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by MightyDM View Post
    Interesting what bargaining power does for workers. If NBA stars were workers in a meat plant in the USA, or Alberta, they’d be making them work on a “let them die” approach. Hopefully the difficulties pro sports are having will bring some sanity to the regular world. We can only hope.
    The NBA players do want to play, it seems. If at all possible.

    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    FWIW

    Best data aggregate I've seen for Ontario is found here, including a breakdown of LTC & hospitals & community cases.

    https://howsmyflattening.ca/#/dashboard/ontario

    If you have a family member in a LTCH, as staff or resident, my prayers. "Its over now" doesn't include there.
    That's a very interesting website, thanks for the tip. Especially I haven't seen the reproduction number mentioned much elsewhere.

    However I believe 579 LTC deaths, out of a total 1300 deaths, is way too low. What I've seen elsewhere, LTC deaths are a far higher percentage. (And apparently Canada is looking very bad there among peer nations.)

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    The NBA players do want to play, it seems. If at all possible.


    "As soon as it's safe" -- LOL, in the US. The situation is incredibly variable there, from city to city, state to state, and over time. Cases and deaths will skyrocket again now. In many areas, testing is far too low compared to the number of cases, so they will be flying blind.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Auzzy View Post
    "As soon as it's safe" -- LOL, in the US. The situation is incredibly variable there, from city to city, state to state, and over time. Cases and deaths will skyrocket again now. In many areas, testing is far too low compared to the number of cases, so they will be flying blind.

    It is no surprise that testing is far to low. The are just blindly ignorant to the fact that this is not just a common flu. Their online "experts" just add fuel to the re-open the country fire by pointing out that the death toll world wide is only 240,000 (I don't have the exact number in front of me) and SARS killed well over 1.2 million. They tend to forget that China's numbers are complete bullshit and the death toll is more than likely well past 2.5 million now.

    Anyways I digress, they will rush to try and get the seasons re-started and in the fall when the second wave rips through it will be much worse. There is a very high probability that "when it's safe" will be summer of 2021.

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blindside16 View Post
    It is no surprise that testing is far to low. The are just blindly ignorant to the fact that this is not just a common flu. Their online "experts" just add fuel to the re-open the country fire by pointing out that the death toll world wide is only 240,000 (I don't have the exact number in front of me) and SARS killed well over 1.2 million. They tend to forget that China's numbers are complete bullshit and the death toll is more than likely well past 2.5 million now.

    Anyways I digress, they will rush to try and get the seasons re-started and in the fall when the second wave rips through it will be much worse. There is a very high probability that "when it's safe" will be summer of 2021.
    Yup I agree! Plus people have done "excess death" calculations of the current situation. In many countries, they haven't yet included 40% to 60% of the actual COVID-19 deaths, for a variety of reasons, plus other deaths that were caused by it due to things like failing hospitals...

    BTW forget about "second wave" in the US, cases & deaths will just keep on growing non-stop from now.

  13. #73
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    BC puts the obvious in print - look at the 4th photo - vaccine, treatment, herd immunity (don't get me started on how many people would die for us to get there)


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    Angela Merkel gave the OK - Pending something bad happening, German Bundesliga back on 15th or 22nd.
    If you have Sportsnet, you can get games on their website - although maybe they'll show them on the main channel as nothing else to show!! Production etc is Fox Sports.
    Only shame is...I was looking forward to everyone getting into the Austrian Bundesliga...!!!

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    Just adding to tweet above...

    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

  16. #76
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    League like MLS, CFL etc that rely on their gate will have a hard time going the closed door route even when sports are allowed on the field. For those without a big TV nest egg not playing at all may be more viable than the closed door thing. I have always thought that it was never going to be realistic for fans to return without a vaccine, the risks were just too high.

    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    BC puts the obvious in print - look at the 4th photo - vaccine, treatment, herd immunity (don't get me started on how many people would die for us to get there)

    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    Just adding to tweet above...


    Remember The Man, The Legend, The Goal 5-12-07 and All That #9 Left On The Pitch, Thanks For The Memories !!!

  17. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red CB Toronto View Post
    League like MLS, CFL etc that rely on their gate will have a hard time going the closed door route even when sports are allowed on the field. For those without a big TV nest egg not playing at all may be more viable than the closed door thing. I have always thought that it was never going to be realistic for fans to return without a vaccine, the risks were just too high.
    I don't know how the TV deals work and all that in the slightest but question about it is.....if nobody is allowed to go to the games for the meantime, it is likely that almost all households that had tickets on top of the normal amount of people that watch on TV and add in some sports craved people that might watch that maybe wouldn't have before....does that help the TV deals in any way having the extra viewers? There will be many more TV viewers than before. Maybe the contracts and TV revenues are fixed or whatever but if not maybe having more viewers makes it more viable.

  18. #78
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    I think the only large sports crowds in Canada that come close to the viewing audiences are CPL & MLS. CFL games get hundreds of thousands.

  19. #79
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    Anyone know when TFC are going to return to training? Other clubs have already started individual sessions.

  20. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by James17930 View Post
    Anyone know when TFC are going to return to training? Other clubs have already started individual sessions.
    All that is based on local jurisdictions letting them.

    No Canadian club has yet. It would be VERY difficult to justify in Ontario under current provincial emergency guidelines.

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    Goff getting some news - he's usually good at hearing from certain management types within teams



    As he says, just talk right now.

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    If this is real (put me in the “it isn’t real” camp), I wonder if we are looking at TFC (and the other Canadian teams) just staying in Orlando and playing “home” games there....

    I still don’t get the “why” for MLS. This won’t make economic sense without massive pay cuts by the players. Which seems unlikely this year. (Next year, if this situation is still bad, different story)
    Last edited by ensco; 05-08-2020 at 07:11 AM.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

  23. #83
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    so the players would all be quarantined together (in Florida) for the duration of the 'season', is that the idea?
    Toronto 'til I die - but I think they're trying to kill me.

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    Wow June/July in Orlando, the temperatures and humidity are generally bad then. Just wondering about having lots of training and games in that climate. If they have many teams in one spot, and try to catch up on some of the missed games, it also makes it harder to schedule games and training for just the parts of the day when the conditions are slightly more bearable.

  25. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    If this is real (put me in the “it isn’t real” camp), I wonder if we are looking at TFC (and the other Canadian teams) just staying in Orlando and playing “home” games there....

    I still don’t get the “why” for MLS. This won’t make economic sense without massive pay cuts by the players. Which seems unlikely this year. (Next year, if this situation is still bad, different story)

    Do you believe MLS would need to have players take pay cuts? The league has made decent coin over the past few years and teams are not that expensive to run.

  26. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    All that is based on local jurisdictions letting them.

    No Canadian club has yet. It would be VERY difficult to justify in Ontario under current provincial emergency guidelines.
    And...Ontario changes the guidelines

    https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/ontario-pr...ties-1.4930649

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    Interesting that they are allowing MLS and CFL clubs, but not CPL clubs. I think there is going to be an amendment to this soon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Initial B View Post
    Interesting that they are allowing MLS and CFL clubs, but not CPL clubs. I think there is going to be an amendment to this soon.
    The leagues/clubs would be asked to police this activities with resources that cost money (security) plus a lot more, infrastructure etc. I think CPL isn’t included for real reasons.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    And...Ontario changes the guidelines

    https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/ontario-pr...ties-1.4930649
    Woo Hoo! Bradley & Piatti will hopefully be in first team training shortly!

  30. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    Goff getting some news - he's usually good at hearing from certain management types within teams



    As he says, just talk right now.
    Here is as connected to anyone is US Soccer circles. While it is good to hear , these type of plans for any league have been coming and going every day. From baseball in Arizona to hockey in North Dakota. One day the NBA was going to be in Vegas, the next at Disney work. The CFL has even said they are likely done for the year. The border is going to be the issue along with testing and quick testing to say the least.

    Quick testing will be needed for this and none of them so far has proven to be all that reliable. The spartan test was just send back to the labs for further work.

    Remember The Man, The Legend, The Goal 5-12-07 and All That #9 Left On The Pitch, Thanks For The Memories !!!

 

 

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