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    Default Match Day 11 - DCU @ TFC Wednesday May 15 8pm We're Still Around




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    Have at It People

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    We need the 3 points here for morale..... we have an extra day of rest vs DCU and hopefully take the full points

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    Hopefully Vanney shakes it up a little and we have some health luck.

    ------------- Jozy ------------

    Endoh ------- Pozo --------Chapman

    --------Bradley ---- Osorio -------

    Morrow – Mavinga – Moor ---DeLeon

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ultra & Proud View Post
    Hopefully Vanney shakes it up a little and we have some health luck.

    ------------- Jozy ------------

    Endoh ------- Pozo --------Chapman

    --------Bradley ---- Osorio -------

    Morrow – Mavinga – Moor ---DeLeon
    I like this combo (because Endoh needs to see the field soon otherwise it is a waste)
    I would even like Poz closer to Jozy (if not slightly behind) with Oso in the middle.
    Toronto FC,#CMNT & #CWNT, Scotland, Heart of Midlothian FC, Tottenham Hotspur FC
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ultra & Proud View Post
    Hopefully Vanney shakes it up a little and we have some health luck.

    ------------- Jozy ------------

    Endoh ------- Pozo --------Chapman

    --------Bradley ---- Osorio -------

    Morrow – Mavinga – Moor ---DeLeon
    the only change i would make is put in our new left winger allo cation in... he got here 2 wks and should be ready,and apparently manning said we are going to love him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cas87 View Post
    I like this combo (because Endoh needs to see the field soon otherwise it is a waste)
    I would even like Poz closer to Jozy (if not slightly behind) with Oso in the middle.
    I just had Oso back by Bradley because the ball isn't moving out of our third fast enough. Hopefully he could help with that.

    Oh, and I tossed Chapman up on the right because he actually runs and isn't afraid to shoot. We need more of that.
    Last edited by Ultra & Proud; 05-13-2019 at 01:10 PM.

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    Considering all the thoughts about strengths & weaknesses, in this & other threads...

    Assuming Auro & Ciman are out...

    Assuming Moor & Jozy are good to go at least the majority of the game...

    I would like to see this line-up:

    -------- Akinola ----- Altidore --------

    -------- Pozuelo ----- Osorio --------
    -------- Bradley ----- DeLeon --------

    Morrow ------ Mavinga ----- Moor ----- Laryea

    ------------------- Westberg -------------------

    Basically a 4-4-2 that can morph as needed, but needs some comments:

    - Hamilton off the bench as a relatively early super-sub, for which ever forward needs a break first. (For example, let's ease Altidore into things & not over-use him right after injury.) Other important options off the bench, depending on the situation: Endoh; Chapman; Delgado.

    - DeLeon stapled back as a pure DM & destroyer to shield our defense.

    - This allows Bradley with a more free-floating role, which he's going to do anyway, regardless of what Vanney or anyone else tells him. But he should provide as much additional DM cover as needed. (I don't think Bradley is fast enough anymore to play as the only DM when we're facing a pacy team, and when our suspect defense needs some cover. BTW most MLS teams have some pace.)

    - Depending on the game situation, width provided by our FBs; and/or one of our AMs; and/or Akinola. We suck at crossing until we get that magical winger, so I wouldn't put too much stock in width anyway. Enough width to stretch the other team, but I'm not really expecting much production out of it.

    - Pozuelo & Osorio in the thick of things & creating, rather than waiting on the periphery, for build-up play by others that never happens.

    - Akinola and Osorio (at least) need to press high when DC has the ball.

    - Vanney really needs to lay off "the way he wants to play" for now, it has become pretty ridiculous.
    Last edited by Auzzy; 05-13-2019 at 01:38 PM.

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    DC United isn't too good out on the wings. They like to pass it up quickly to the forwards on the break and get between the lines & go. When they can't do that, they swing the ball around hoping for a bit of individual brilliance.

    Sound familiar?

    They are, in many ways, a lot like us except with a better defence and a keeper who can stone cold kill a team on his own. if his team goes AWOL.

    We are the underdogs but we can win this one.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    DC United isn't too good out on the wings. They like to pass it up quickly to the forwards on the break and get between the lines & go. When they can't do that, they swing the ball around hoping for a bit of individual brilliance.



    Sound familiar?

    They are, in many ways, a lot like us except with a better defence and a keeper who can stone cold kill a team on his own. if his team goes AWOL.

    We are the underdogs but we can win this one.

    We're not the underdogs.
    Pretty decent favorite actually

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    We should be the underdogs & most pundits following MLS would put us there.

    Betting markets are another matter.

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    DC found the win vs KC after many chances at goal. They will get chances Wed. We've gotta be strong and focused and consistent.
    Canada Mens Olympic Qualifiers vs El Sal Sat. March 21, Haita Tues. March 24, and Honduras Fri. March 27! Canada vs T&T Fri. March 27 4:30!
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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    We should be the underdogs & most pundits following MLS would put us there.

    Betting markets are another matter.
    Let me explain to you how this league works in terms of favourites and underdogs.

    It is a rare thing for the home team to be an underdog in this league.
    I know this for reviewing the odds of the games every week. its kind of a weird hobby of mine.
    But you won't most likely believe me so you can review for yourself.
    Here are the last 50 games that were played in the MLS. of these 50 games only 2 games out of 50 the home team was the underdog.
    4% of the games the home team is the underdog.
    https://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/usa/mls/results/
    game 1 crew vs lafc on May8th
    game 2 san jose vs kc on april 20th

    For us to be the underdog in this game we would have to be real garbage.

    Really interesting thing about this TFC vs DC game.
    On Sunday morning TFC odds were 2.20 or around 45% expected winning percentage for the game.
    At this point I resigned myself to the fact that TFC are garbage like everyone here thinks. I didn't want to accept this but the markets had spoken and they said loud and clear TFC is shit. If TFC was good the odds for this game should be around 1.6-1.7 or around a 60%-62% expected winning percentage for the game.

    But here is where it gets really interesting, every day the odds for TFC winning the game kept going up. now the odds are on average of all bookmakers around 1.7 or 60% expected win percentage TFC will win the game.

    good news TFC is not shit, we are fine, if we were a great team the odds would be around 1.45 to 1.50 or a 65%-67% expected win percentage.
    note the Atlanta game with our bench players playing the odds for Atlanta winning were 1.45 or 67%
    Last edited by stevep; 05-13-2019 at 08:48 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Auzzy View Post
    Considering all the thoughts about strengths & weaknesses, in this & other threads...

    Assuming Auro & Ciman are out...

    Assuming Moor & Jozy are good to go at least the majority of the game...

    I would like to see this line-up:

    -------- Akinola ----- Altidore --------

    -------- Pozuelo ----- Osorio --------
    -------- Bradley ----- DeLeon --------

    Morrow ------ Mavinga ----- Moor ----- Laryea

    ------------------- Westberg -------------------

    Basically a 4-4-2 that can morph as needed, but needs some comments:

    - Hamilton off the bench as a relatively early super-sub, for which ever forward needs a break first. (For example, let's ease Altidore into things & not over-use him right after injury.) Other important options off the bench, depending on the situation: Endoh; Chapman; Delgado.

    - DeLeon stapled back as a pure DM & destroyer to shield our defense.

    - This allows Bradley with a more free-floating role, which he's going to do anyway, regardless of what Vanney or anyone else tells him. But he should provide as much additional DM cover as needed. (I don't think Bradley is fast enough anymore to play as the only DM when we're facing a pacy team, and when our suspect defense needs some cover. BTW most MLS teams have some pace.)

    - Depending on the game situation, width provided by our FBs; and/or one of our AMs; and/or Akinola. We suck at crossing until we get that magical winger, so I wouldn't put too much stock in width anyway. Enough width to stretch the other team, but I'm not really expecting much production out of it.

    - Pozuelo & Osorio in the thick of things & creating, rather than waiting on the periphery, for build-up play by others that never happens.

    - Akinola and Osorio (at least) need to press high when DC has the ball.

    - Vanney really needs to lay off "the way he wants to play" for now, it has become pretty ridiculous.
    Akinola is out with the U20 US squad for their WC

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blindside16 View Post
    Akinola is out with the U20 US squad for their WC
    Oh yeah, forgot about that. Not as ideal, but Hamilton and Altidore should start instead, with Boyd on the bench.

    Unfortunately that's not what is going to happen, because Vanney will continue to try to fit square pegs into round holes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stevep View Post
    Let me explain to you how this league works in terms of favourites and underdogs.

    It is a rare thing for the home team to be an underdog in this league.
    I know this for reviewing the odds of the games every week. its kind of a weird hobby of mine.
    But you won't most likely believe me so you can review for yourself.
    Here are the last 50 games that were played in the MLS. of these 50 games only 2 games out of 50 the home team was the underdog.
    4% of the games the home team is the underdog.
    https://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/usa/mls/results/
    game 1 crew vs lafc on May8th
    game 2 san jose vs kc on april 20th

    For us to be the underdog in this game we would have to be real garbage.

    Really interesting thing about this TFC vs DC game.
    On Sunday morning TFC odds were 2.20 or around 45% expected winning percentage for the game.
    At this point I resigned myself to the fact that TFC are garbage like everyone here thinks. I didn't want to accept this but the markets had spoken and they said loud and clear TFC is shit. If TFC was good the odds for this game should be around 1.6-1.7 or around a 60%-62% expected winning percentage for the game.

    But here is where it gets really interesting, every day the odds for TFC winning the game kept going up. now the odds are on average of all bookmakers around 1.7 or 60% expected win percentage TFC will win the game.

    good news TFC is not shit, we are fine, if we were a great team the odds would be around 1.45 to 1.50 or a 65%-67% expected win percentage.
    note the Atlanta game with our bench players playing the odds for Atlanta winning were 1.45 or 67%
    You’re ignoring the fact that MLS has one of the most skewed home advantages of any reasonably decent football league on the planet, which is something bookies don’t ignore.

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    Travelling note

    If you take the East side of the #1 subway line - it will be closed between Bloor & Eglinton starting at 11 pm.

    i.e. Don't hang around too long


    http://ttc.ca/Service_Advisories/Sub...glinton-BY.jsp

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    Quote Originally Posted by stegosaurus View Post
    You’re ignoring the fact that MLS has one of the most skewed home advantages of any reasonably decent football league on the planet, which is something bookies don’t ignore.
    Here, here!

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    Vanney said Auro is available for selection tomorrow, but Ciman won't be available for about a week. #TFCLive

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikmacdo View Post
    Vanney said Auro is available for selection tomorrow, but Ciman won't be available for about a week. #TFCLive
    Good to hear about Ciman, but I did not expect that at all. Watching him drop on Saturday our whole section assumed we wouldn't be seeing him for a while.
    TFC management changes: "like adding a new fish to your aquarium of failure." - Shakes

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    Same. Glad Laurent is not massively hurt, it certainly read that way.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stegosaurus View Post
    You’re ignoring the fact that MLS has one of the most skewed home advantages of any reasonably decent football league on the planet, which is something bookies don’t ignore.
    How am I ignoring that.
    Simply stating the numbers

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    Quote Originally Posted by stevep View Post
    How am I ignoring that.
    Simply stating the numbers
    Being favoured to win at home in MLS doesn’t indicate whether or not our team is good or bad. Home teams are favoured in MLS because, statistically, they are more likely to get a result. Even bad ones.

    Even the Revs, Quakes and Rapids are probably favoured at home, but they’re still dumpster fires.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stegosaurus View Post
    Being favoured to win at home in MLS doesn’t indicate whether or not our team is good or bad. Home teams are favoured in MLS because, statistically, they are more likely to get a result. Even bad ones.

    Even the Revs, Quakes and Rapids are probably favoured at home, but they’re still dumpster fires.
    Yes this is true.
    But the degree to which a team is favoured is a great indicator on how good your team is.
    Look at LAFC odds week to week and compare to other games.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stevep View Post
    Yes this is true.
    But the degree to which a team is favoured is a great indicator on how good your team is.
    Look at LAFC odds week to week and compare to other games.
    Sure, but then gambling wouldn’t be gambling, would it?

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    I will turn away after 30 minutes to watch the Raps. It has to be that way. Please don’t be angry.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Game Day

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    I will turn away after 30 minutes to watch the Raps. It has to be that way. Please don’t be angry.
    I'm not, my son and I will be doing the same.

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    It's basketball you can just tune in for the last 2 minutes

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    Reminder that this is De Leon's first game against a team he has a tatoo of who let him go.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    Reminder that this is De Leon's first game against a team he has a tatoo of who let him go.
    I can picture it now...

    Deleon in on goal, but gets taken out. Penalty awarded. Deleon grabs ball from Pozo’s hands, puts it on the spot, and skies it directly into Lake Ontario. Rips off his shirt revealing a DC United kit and kisses his tattoo. Ted Unkel allows it after deferring to Elfath, the VAR assistant. DC wins 6-0 with both Shrek and Deleon scoring hattricks while TFC struggles 10v12. Garber post-game interview explains new MLS exchange rate and tariff rules limiting Canadian teams to 10 players and adding an extra player to American teams playing away.

 

 

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