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    Default CCL Draw Monday December 3

    Pile in. Odds say its SKC in the first round.

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    ^I don’t think that is right.

    KC can’t draw any of the US teams. So the odds that we draw them are definitely higher than 1 in 8.

    Without breaking out the conditional probability theorems, I think it's something like 1 in 4 chance that we draw them.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    If SKC pull an American ball (or CAN) they get TFC that's 3 + 1 = 4 so half the pot.

    I'm basing this off Twitter convos I'm observing.
    Last edited by Areathrasher; 12-02-2018 at 10:18 PM.

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    ^I am truly surprised SKC that pulling an American ball means they get TFC. I thought they just drew again.

    Assuming you are right, it's not necessarily exactly a 50/50 deal, I think it'd depend on whether the order in which teams pick balls are is random. If SKC pull first, it's 50/50. The later SKC picks, the better the odds for us.

    But I am unaware of a draw anywhere in FIFA that works like that. That just seems too far out to be true. There is no logical reason for SKC to default to TFC if they pull a USA ball.
    Last edited by ensco; 12-02-2018 at 10:35 PM.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    From what I can tell its 50% SKC 50% any of the central American teams.

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    The draw will begin when the first club is selected from Pot 1, followed by a bracket position from Pot A. Once the position for all the clubs from Pot 1 has been drawn, using Pot A, clubs from Pot 2 will be drawn using the same procedure and Pot B. Each first round pairing will feature one team from each pot. Additionally, clubs from the same Member Association cannot face each other in the first round.
    https://res.cloudinary.com/concacaf-...ns_ENG_A_2.pdf

    SKC has a 25% chance of being drawn against us. If they get a US team - they get redrawn - there is no "if they get a USA team they play the only remaining MLS team" thing. There is no seeding beyond the first draw. (The idea that any team in Pot 1 is already on the other side from TFC is not true)

    I'd also note that the whole "Mexico can't play a US team until the semi's" thing is gone this year. In theory, all 4 Mexican teams could be drawn on the same side of the draw.


    ******

    If anything, I think CONCACAF wants us playing a Mexican team in the quarters & semis. We're a known quantity now.
    Last edited by OgtheDim; 12-02-2018 at 11:07 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    https://res.cloudinary.com/concacaf-...ns_ENG_A_2.pdf

    SKC has a 25% chance of being drawn against us. If they get a US team - they get redrawn - there is no "if they get a USA team they play the only remaining MLS team" thing. There is no seeding beyond the first draw. (The idea that any team in Pot 1 is already on the other side from TFC is not true)

    I'd also note that the whole "Mexico can't play a US team until the semi's" thing is gone this year. In theory, all 4 Mexican teams could be drawn on the same side of the draw.


    ******

    If anything, I think CONCACAF wants us playing a Mexican team in the quarters & semis. We're a known quantity now.
    1 out of 5 (TFC plus 4 Mexican teams) is 20% chance overall, at the start of the draw for KC.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Areathrasher View Post
    If SKC pull an American ball (or CAN) they get TFC that's 3 + 1 = 4 so half the pot.

    I'm basing this off Twitter convos I'm observing.
    Less twitter, more rule books.

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    As much as I relish watching a top notch futbol environment, the reality is a soft opponent like the DR team is best. Semis and Finals away legs are based on points and goals in early matches. We were behind the eight ball last time not being able to run up big scores against a minnow.

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    I agree, I hope we get a minnow, just so we can ease into the next round where we will likely play against a team from MX.

    But knowing our luck we will draw SKC.
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    1st Round Canadian draws by years they made it to the knockout stages:

    2008 - Montreal drew Santos Laguna (MEX) and lost 5-4.
    2012 - TFC drew LA Galaxy (USA) and won 4-3.
    2015 - Montreal got Pachuca (MEX) and won 3-3 on away goals.
    2017 - Vancouver got NYRB (USA) and won 3-1.
    2018 - TFC drew Colorado (USA) and won 2-0.

    Canadian teams have never played a non MLS/Liga MX team in the first knockout round. SKC in the first round is a certainty.

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    Kansas City in February ..

    In Toronto there is, say, a 20% chance that with wind chill it's minus 20 or worsen in February. In KC, that is probably closer to 40%.

    For the love of god, play these arctic climate first round games in daylight this time. There isn’t a single reason to play these at night. Nobody ex the hardcores is going(or watching on TV)anyways.
    Last edited by ensco; 12-03-2018 at 09:22 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Initial B View Post
    1st Round Canadian draws by years they made it to the knockout stages:

    2008 - Montreal drew Santos Laguna (MEX) and lost 5-4.
    2012 - TFC drew LA Galaxy (USA) and won 4-3.
    2015 - Montreal got Pachuca (MEX) and won 3-3 on away goals.
    2017 - Vancouver got NYRB (USA) and won 3-1.
    2018 - TFC drew Colorado (USA) and won 2-0.

    Canadian teams have never played a non MLS/Liga MX team in the first knockout round. SKC in the first round is a certainty.
    Before last year, there was a group stage that elimated most non MX or MLS teams before the knockout round draw, so your list of doom is being skewed by that.

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    I'm just looking at knockout rounds, disregarding the group stages. From 2013-2017 only the top team from each group advanced, and earlier than that it was the top 2 teams from 4 group stages. Regardless, it seems fishy that the Canadian team has never faced 'easier' opposition in this tournament.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Initial B View Post
    I'm just looking at knockout rounds, disregarding the group stages. From 2013-2017 only the top team from each group advanced, and earlier than that it was the top 2 teams from 4 group stages. Regardless, it seems fishy that the Canadian team has never faced 'easier' opposition in this tournament.
    I was talking about knockout rounds. I said that most times the lesser teams didn't make it past the group stage so how can you get matched against them if they aren't there?

    Also, during the 2013-2017 phase there was no draw for the knockout round matches- the 8 teams were seeded based on results in the group stage. So yes, it was bad luck that Montreal got a MX team when there were lots of lesser teams.

    Anyhow, we have a disadvantage due to the US MLS teams not being paired in the R16, that's a fact.
    That's all I'll say about that.

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    Toronto got Club Athletico Independiente from Panama...

    Second round we play the winner of SKC and Toluca

    Next round is probably against the winner of Atlanta and Monterrey.

    Final against Tigres on the other side, I would guess...

    Not a bad draw, unless you want us to go out early :-)

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    Tigres is going to destroy their half of the bracket

    Tigres v Monterrey/Atlanta in the final

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    In terms of match-ups --- they got about as good as they could have hoped for in terms of the path to the Semis (prior to the draw I think we all would have taken Ind. in round 1, and then Toluca as the weakest Mexican side of the four (or KC a relatively weak MLS side in comparison to Atlanta or possibly NYRB) that they could get in Round 2) - obviously at that point whoever is left was likely to have been playing Tigres, Santos, Monterrey or Atlanta in the Semis/Finals based on recent form.....

    The only thing that potentially sucks is that in terms of the QF we have the second leg on the road in KC or more likely in Mexico, and that decision was purely luck of the draw which we did not luck out with (the latter two rounds have Home Field based on earlier performance in the competition).....

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    Taking a look at Toluca quickly, they seem to have gotten a lot of Red Cards so far this season. Let's just grind it out and go through Panama first! One game at a time
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    I am sorry Chivas isn’t in this. I wanted to go back to Guadalajara and beat them.

    But Monterrey in April is so nice, may as well go twice.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Its the 2018 MLS champion that will occupy the USA1 spot to take the A7 spot. So even more reason to cheer for Portland in the finals.

    If Atlanta loses MLS Cup 2018 they still qualify by having the best aggregate 2017/2018 record. But they will be on the other side of the bracket leaving NYRB out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SirBobSaget View Post
    Its the 2018 MLS champion that will occupy the USA1 spot to take the A7 spot. So even more reason to cheer for Portland in the finals.

    If Atlanta loses MLS Cup 2018 they still qualify by having the best aggregate 2017/2018 record. But they will be on the other side of the bracket leaving NYRB out.
    Nope. NYRB and Portland share the same slot.

    The reallocation of the USA slots this year is completely opaque. Can’t figure the allocations.

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    What worries me of a potential Toluca matchup is the altitude.

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    ^Actually, to the extent it matters, I think we match up better with Atlanta than with Portland. I'd definitely rather play a big game at Atlanta than at Portland.
    Last edited by ensco; 12-03-2018 at 09:32 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Redpunkfiddle View Post
    Nope. NYRB and Portland share the same slot.

    The reallocation of the USA slots this year is completely opaque. Can’t figure the allocations.
    https://www.concacafchampionsleague....ualified-clubs

    USA1 -
    1. Since the 2017 MLS cup was won by a non-US based club, this position will be awarded to the U.S.-based team not already qualified with the highest aggregate point total at the end of the 2017 and 2018 regular seasons combined.


    Atlanta Leads with next runner up NYRB

    USA2 is MLS Cup 2018 champions.

    So guess its what takes precedence, earning spot 1 through aggregate or the clear winner of spot 2 as 2018 Champs? makes more sense to qualify Altanta through slot 2.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RealG-TFC View Post
    What worries me of a potential Toluca matchup is the altitude.
    Don't think the Mexicans, if they get by KC, are looking forward to a game in early March down by the lake either, would be great if we are in the middle of a cold snap.

    I like the draw, the quality of opponent steps up each round, we get to build towards a final where as last year felt like a final every round after the first

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    That Toluca vs SKC game in Kansas City... if there someone keeping track somewhere of all time differences in temperature on the day of the game between the visiting team and the home team, that game may break that record.

    Based on that alone I'd say SKC are the favourite in that tie.
    Last edited by ensco; 12-04-2018 at 10:46 AM.
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    First!

    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    I went back through previous CCL seasons and can't find any predictable pattern to where the Panama teams play their games. Sometimes it is their local stadium. Sometimes the National Stadium. Sometimes they play
    away from their home
    in another small stadium.

    So its uncertain if they will play in the National Stadium Rommel Fernandez (capacity 32000) in Panama City , or on turf in their home stadium Muquita (3000 capacity) in La Chorrerra, 30 km away.

    La Muquita was the site of the infamous Arabe Unido match in 2010 and its disgraceful diving and play acting.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeybdAtvBDI
    That's all I'll say about that.

 

 

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