TFC/MLS Rough Standing Projections

[BendItLikeGio]

Something Fun to look at weekly, i will try update. Standings as of now, paired with Potential(Max Pts they can get), PPG(Points per Game) or Potential2 (some ExcelFun, using the Current Team Trend to Project Final Points). Enjoy

Eastern Conference										Western Conference
Club	MP	W	D	L	Pts	Potential	PPG	Potential2		Club	MP	W	D	L	Pts	Potential	PPG	Potential2
Atlanta	10	7	1	2	22	94	2.200	75		Sporting KC	11	7	2	2	23	92	2.091	71
NYCFC	10	6	2	2	20	92	2.000	68		LAFC	9	6	1	2	19	94	2.111	72
Orlando	9	6	1	2	19	94	2.111	72		Vancouver	10	4	1	5	13	85	1.300	44
Columbus	11	5	3	3	18	87	1.636	56		FC Dallas	8	3	4	1	13	91	1.625	55
NYRB	8	5	0	3	15	93	1.875	64		Minnesota	10	4	0	6	12	84	1.200	41
New England	9	4	2	3	14	89	1.556	53		Houstan	8	3	2	3	11	89	1.375	47
Chicago	9	3	2	4	11	86	1.222	42		Portland	8	3	2	3	11	89	1.375	47
Montreal	10	3	0	7	9	81	0.900	31		LA Galaxy	9	3	1	5	10	85	1.111	38
Philadelphia	9	2	2	5	8	83	0.889	30		Real Salt	9	3	1	5	10	85	1.111	38
TFC	8	2	1	5	7	85	0.875	30		Colorado	8	2	2	4	8	86	1.000	34
DC United	7	1	2	4	5	86	0.714	24		Seattle	8	2	2	4	8	86	1.000	34
										San Jose	8	1	2	5	5	83	0.625	21

[fergiejr]

At least I'm not the only one who has fun with excel... :-)

[BendItLikeGio]

This just keeps getting worse

Eastern Conference										Western Conference
Club	MP	W	D	L	Pts	Potential	PPG	Potential2		Club	MP	W	D	L	Pts	Potential	PPG	Potential2
Atlanta	11	8	1	2	25	94	2.273	77		Sporting KC	11	7	2	2	23	92	2.091	71
NYCFC	11	6	3	2	21	90	1.909	65		LAFC	10	6	2	2	20	92	2.000	68
Columbus	12	6	3	3	21	87	1.750	60		FC Dallas	9	4	4	1	16	91	1.778	60
Orlando	10	6	1	3	19	91	1.900	65		Vancouver	11	4	2	5	14	83	1.273	43
NYRB	9	6	0	3	18	93	2.000	68		Portland	9	4	2	3	14	89	1.556	53
New England	10	5	2	3	17	89	1.700	58		Real Salt	10	4	1	5	13	85	1.300	44
Chicago	10	3	2	5	11	83	1.100	37		Minnesota	11	4	0	7	12	81	1.091	37
Philadelphia	10	3	2	5	11	83	1.100	37		Houstan	9	3	3	3	12	87	1.333	45
Montreal	11	3	0	8	9	78	0.818	28		LA Galaxy	10	3	1	6	10	82	1.000	34
TFC	9	2	1	6	7	82	0.778	26		Colorado	9	2	2	5	8	83	0.889	30
DC United	8	1	2	5	5	83	0.625	21		Seattle	9	2	2	5	8	83	0.889	30
										San Jose	9	2	2	5	8	83	0.889	30

[OgtheDim]

Its useful though - thanks.

[BendItLikeGio]

Montreal in our shadows, already . Lets just start chipping away to the top

Eastern Conference										Western Conference
Club	MP	W	D	L	Pts	Potential	PPG	Potential2		Club	MP	W	D	L	Pts	Potential	PPG	Potential2
Atlanta	12	8	1	3	25	91	2.083	71		Sporting KC	12	7	3	2	24	90	2.000	68
NYCFC	12	7	3	2	24	90	2.000	68		LAFC	11	6	2	3	20	89	1.818	62
Columbus	13	7	3	3	24	87	1.846	63		FC Dallas	10	4	5	1	17	89	1.700	58
NYRB	10	7	0	3	21	93	2.100	71		Portland	10	5	2	3	17	89	1.700	58
Orlando	11	6	1	4	19	88	1.727	59		Vancouver	13	4	4	5	16	79	1.231	42
New England	11	5	2	4	17	86	1.545	53		Houstan	10	4	3	3	15	87	1.500	51
Philadelphia	11	4	2	5	14	83	1.273	43		Real Salt	11	4	1	6	13	82	1.182	40
Chicago	11	3	2	6	11	80	1.000	34		Minnesota	12	4	1	7	13	79	1.083	37
TFC	10	3	1	6	10	82	1.000	34		LA Galaxy	11	4	1	6	13	82	1.182	40
Montreal	12	3	0	9	9	75	0.750	26		San Jose	11	2	3	6	9	78	0.818	28
DC United	9	2	2	5	8	83	0.889	30		Colorado	10	2	2	6	8	80	0.800	27
										Seattle	9	2	2	5	8	83	0.889	30

[TFC1154ever]

If our goal is catching 4th place, and hosting a 1st round playoff series, I think at this point, Columbus is more realistic to catch than the Red Bulls. They got KC this week in KC. One of the tougher road games in the MLS. If they lose that, and we can find a way to get 3 points again against Dallas, we set up a huge matchup next week against Columbus in Columbus. We’d be 11 points back, with 3 games in hand going into that match.

[KingLedley]

Will we finish top 6? Not expecting to finish above ATL and NYR but not sure about Columbus, and maybe NYCFC will crack if Viera leaves unexpectedly (even with the huge points differential). As for the rest, I think we have six must win games.... Chicago home and away, Philly away, Orlando away, and the Revs at home. If we can do this then we should finish top six.

[BendItLikeGio]

We also have NYRB home and away, Atlanta Home & Away. Luckily majority of our games we lost were West Conf, except for Columbus & Montreal, and tie with Chicago. We have alot of games against the east left, and alot of room to move up the standings. This weeks Dallas will be a good test against a undefeated team, if we pick up here and go into Columbus with 2 big wins we can pull that off, which makes us move up quite a bit.

[BendItLikeGio]

A lot of teams in the east dropped points, however we weren't able to capitalize on gaining ground.

Eastern Conference										Western Conference
Club	MP	W	D	L	Pts	Potential	PPG	Potential2		Club	MP	W	D	L	Pts	Potential	PPG	Potential2
Atlanta	12	8	1	3	25	91	2.083	71		Sporting KC	13	7	4	2	25	88	1.923	65
Columbus	14	7	4	3	25	85	1.786	61		LAFC	12	6	3	3	21	87	1.750	60
NYCFC	13	7	3	3	24	87	1.846	63		FC Dallas	11	5	5	1	20	89	1.818	62
NYRB	11	7	1	3	22	91	2.000	68		Portland	11	6	2	3	20	89	1.818	62
Orlando	12	6	1	5	19	85	1.583	54		Houstan	11	5	3	3	18	87	1.636	56
New England	12	5	3	4	18	84	1.500	51		Vancouver	14	4	5	5	17	77	1.214	41
Philadelphia	12	4	3	5	15	81	1.250	43		Real Salt	12	5	1	6	16	82	1.333	45
Chicago	12	4	2	6	14	80	1.167	40		Minnesota	13	5	1	7	16	79	1.231	42
TFC	11	3	1	7	10	79	0.909	31		LA Galaxy	12	5	1	6	16	82	1.333	45
Montreal	13	3	0	10	9	72	0.692	24		San Jose	12	2	3	7	9	75	0.750	26
DC United	10	2	3	5	9	81	0.900	31		Colorado	11	2	2	7	8	77	0.727	25
										Seattle	10	2	2	6	8	80	0.800	27

[BendItLikeGio]

this just keeps getting worse

Eastern Conference										Western Conference
Club	MP	W	D	L	Pts	Potential	PPG	Potential2		Club	MP	W	D	L	Pts	Potential	PPG	Potential2
Atlanta	14	9	2	3	29	89	2.071	70		Sporting KC	14	8	4	2	28	88	2.000	68
NYCFC	14	8	3	3	27	87	1.929	66		FC Dallas	13	7	5	1	26	89	2.000	68
Columbus	15	7	5	3	26	83	1.733	59		Real Salt	14	7	1	6	22	82	1.571	53
New England	12	7	1	4	22	88	1.833	62		LAFC	13	6	3	4	21	84	1.615	55
NYRB	14	6	4	4	22	82	1.571	53		Portland	12	6	3	3	21	87	1.750	60
Orlando	13	6	1	6	19	82	1.462	50		Vancouver	15	5	5	5	20	77	1.333	45
Philadelphia	14	5	3	6	18	78	1.286	44		Houstan	13	5	3	5	18	81	1.385	47
Chicago	14	5	2	7	17	77	1.214	41		LA Galaxy	14	5	2	7	17	77	1.214	41
Montreal	14	4	0	10	12	72	0.857	29		Minnesota	14	5	1	8	16	76	1.143	39
TFC	12	3	2	7	11	77	0.917	31		San Jose	13	2	3	8	9	72	0.692	24
DC United	10	2	3	5	9	81	0.900	31		Seattle	12	2	2	8	8	74	0.667	23
										Colorado	11	2	2	7	8	77	0.727	25

[Graeme]

Something Fun to look at weekly, i will try update. Standings as of now, paired with Potential(Max Pts they can get), PPG(Points per Game) or Potential2 (some ExcelFun, using the Current Team Trend to Project Final Points). Enjoy

Is the "potential" column what happens if that particular team wins all the rest of their games? (Obviously not every team could hit those numbers as they all play each other)

[urdiub]

Maybe you could consider a separate projection column that includes an average of this years and last years PPG, to calculate the remaining points at the end of the season.

Something for TFC would look like - (0.917 (2018 PPG) + 2.029 (2017 PPG))/2 = 1.473 PPG

Therefore TFC's weighted projection would be 22 remaining games at 1.473 PPG = 32 points plus 11 (2018 points thus far) for a final projection of 43 points.

This way you can sort of get a true meaning for the team. Obviously this wouldn't work so well for outliers like Seattle - 53 pts last year, dumpster fire this year (or even us as well because I think we can do better than 43) - but I still think you can get a more accurate projected number.

[BendItLikeGio]

Standings right now, season starting back up tomorrow around the league, lets see if WorldCup break will be a good thing for us.

Eastern Conference										Western Conference
Club	MP	W	D	L	Pts	Potential	PPG	Potential2		Club	MP	W	D	L	Pts	Potential	PPG	Potential2
Atlanta	16	10	3	3	33	87	2.063	70		Sporting KC	15	8	5	2	29	86	1.933	66
NYCFC	15	8	4	3	28	85	1.867	63		FC Dallas	14	8	5	1	29	89	2.071	70
Columbus	17	7	6	4	27	78	1.588	54		LAFC	14	7	3	4	24	84	1.714	58
NYRB	14	8	2	4	26	86	1.857	63		Vancouver	16	6	5	5	23	77	1.438	49
New England	16	6	6	4	24	78	1.500	51		Real Salt	15	7	1	7	22	79	1.467	50
Orlando	15	6	1	8	19	76	1.267	43		Portland	13	6	4	3	22	85	1.692	58
Chicago	16	5	4	7	19	73	1.188	40		Houstan	14	6	3	5	21	81	1.500	51
Philadelphia	15	5	3	7	18	75	1.200	41		LA Galaxy	15	6	2	7	20	77	1.333	45
Montreal	16	5	0	11	15	69	0.938	32		Minnesota	14	5	1	8	16	76	1.143	39
TFC	14	4	3	7	15	75	1.071	36		Seattle	13	3	2	8	11	74	0.846	29
DC United	12	2	4	6	10	76	0.833	28		San Jose	15	2	4	9	10	67	0.667	23
										Colorado	14	2	3	9	9	69	0.643	22