It might be hard to be "bossing the league" when infact its the league that actually owns all the teams. Keep in mind that MLSE simply invests and operates the team on behalf of the leagueOriginally Posted by Richard
I'm also quite sure the smaller market teams have just as much as a say as the big market teams.
The league owns half (51%) of each team. The "owner/operator" (MLSE in this case) owns the other half (49%). It's a complicated joint venture thing with each team being a joint venture branch of a single entity LLC corporation. There is incentive to run your own team well. There's also incentive for the league to do well. It's a balance to prevent the problems that the original NASL had.It might be hard to be "bossing the league" when infact its the league that actually owns all the teams. Keep in mind that MLSE simply invests and operates the team on behalf of the league
I'm also quite sure the smaller market teams have just as much as a say as the big market teams.
I would argue, though, that for MLSE winning means much more than what they earn from MLS and SUM. The broadcasters want good product to broadcast, with playoffs that bring in the big advertising $$$. Larry T for his part really, really, wants to win period. It's much more than an investment for him.
Last edited by Oldtimer; 08-31-2018 at 08:02 PM.
Do people really not care about CCL? You win that you're arguably the best team in CONCACAF. This same team beat 2 of the best teams in north american. The salary cap is what holds teams back from competing in CCL. Look at all the top teams in MLS this season. All their best players play nearly every minute, after that the talent level drops a lot. TFC's best haven't played close to the same amount of minutes due to injuries.
Montreal won. I'm ready to say our season is over on October 28. Looking forward to the CCL, and hopefully a quadruple next year. We'll need Bez to reinforce our D for that to happen. We'll get allocation for missing the playoffs, that should help.
My concern is that MLSE will look at how the team performed this year and decide to cut the payroll. Missing multiple home play-off games is going to cut into revenues.
Could you explain on how allocation money works for missing the playoffs.
You answered your own question as to why I dont care about CCL(read: hate it)
Other teams can spend whatever they want, while we have to adhear to a odd cap structure. Why bother.
Best case realistic scenario now really is that D.C. wins enough games to give us a chance to knock Montreal out of a playoff spot in the 2nd last game of the season.
I mean that would be nice. ⬆️
You typically get maybe $200k or so more to spend on players. For us that will be in addition to $100k or so for getting into the CCL, so we'll have more than $300k next year. Add that we won't have to pay many bonuses to our existing players and it adds up to a lot. This is how the league encourages parity. Teams that do well shed good players (eg Beitashour), teams that do poorly are reinforced. While it's still possible to have a team that is a consistent contender, it's hard.
I was a believer until tonight. The season is done, let's not injur anyone further and give them a proper off-season to relax and regroup so we can win that damn CCL. Definitely want Janson to stay.
now its over, it's funny i'm not too sad about it, I am resigned to the fact that it's over.
we had a great two years
I take solice in my belief that this season was scripted from the start for TFC to not make the playoffs. For whatever reason I am not exactly sure but it was determined by the powers that be that it was best for the league for TFC to not win it again.
Last edited by stevep; 09-01-2018 at 10:57 PM.
I don’t think it was ever particularly in the cards but you’d have to be especially diluted at this point to believe we are making the playoffs.
I’ll say the same thing I said a month ago: the rest of the season should be about performance evaluation and needs for next year.
As constructed right now I have a hard time believing we are a top 4 team in the league.
Partial re build seems likely. I hope we can re-sign Jozy with TAM and free up a DP spot. Vazquez will have to be bought out - what a shame, wish we could've had him for longer but his impact on our Treble season was undeniable.
Am I mistaken that all 3 DP contracts are up this off season?
I believe they are ending next year otherwise we would have heard a lot more transfer rumors.
None of our 3 DP-s contracts are up this offseason... unfortunatelly!
Nothing but respect for the original poster of this thread. He wasn't blinded like me. He knew the other teams strengths around the league.
In other news I'd like to see Seattle make it 3x times in a row to the finals. That would be something.
I'm also going to root for DC United as well. They we're right at the bottom. Only in last place because they didn't play as many games as TFC. Otherwise we would have had that last spot place for a few months there.
We just couldn’t catch a break.
I leave it to others to do the nuanced, 1000 word analysis.
Life is like that sometimes.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
I did an interesting little analysis of this season using each TFC's game betting odds.
Here is what I did:
I deliberately omitted the colorado and houston games as those were tfc2 players games.
so that left 25 games; the data is for 25 games
i noted the TFC winning odds and the TFC tying odds for each game and put it on a spreadsheet
the data is available on oddsportal mls results
the odds are a reflection of the betting public's perception of how the game will go
the odds are the odds when the lineups have been posted. so there is no surprises everyone knew who was playing that day for TFC. all the missing stars were accounted for in the odds.
so here are the results:
TFC had an average odds of winning any given game of 2.43 or 41%
TFC had an average odds of tying any given game of 3.98 or 25%
this translates into 37 points for 25 games or 1.48ppg, we are at 27/25 (remember colorado and houston games omitted) or 1.08ppg. we are underperforming the our expected point per game by 0.40 ppg. this is huge. so even with all our games injured all the time we should be at 41points (if you add 4pts for colorado and houston games)
i also estimate that missing all our starters cost us about 12% winning percentage per game so that translates into .12*3*25=9.
so injuries have cost us an additional 9 points this year. so if we had of played like we should have and had no injuries we would be at 50pts now or 1.85ppg
so what/who do you blame the 0.40ppg less than we should be at on?? and almost 0.80 ppg if everyone was healthy.
very fishy to me, this is massively underperforming. almost not possible in my opinion
Last edited by stevep; 09-03-2018 at 10:55 PM.
Fantastic analysis here, if your numbers are correct.
This comes to you from a guy who's very knowleadgeable in everything related to sports betting for about 22 years...
(Probably no more than 20% of all the people reading this forum understand what you're really talking about here... from a sports bettors point of view.)
Also this translates into that would have been extremely profitable to fade TFC in betting over this full MLS season, with a constant-unit wager or even some progressive money management (but of course not the stupid Martingale...).
Last edited by PizzaEatingYeti; 09-04-2018 at 04:07 AM.
^I don't think it's “analysis”, it doesn’t tell us why. It's just another way of saying we consistently underperformed across many games, and that bettors always believed that there would be mean reversion. As I did.
I could also make the same point by saying we have six home losses, or we have as many losses so far in 2018 as we had in 2016 and 2017 combined.
The part about the impact of injuries being 9 points is definitely not analysis, that part is purely subjective. Injuries lowered expected ppg in almost every game, which is the thing you really want to understand (but can’t, the odds for a full squad scenario game by game don’t exist)
Injuries were the story in 2018. Compounded by an unfair schedule with a huge number of games on no rest after long flights.
Last edited by ensco; 09-04-2018 at 06:43 AM.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
The unfair schedule is the thing that the league directly controls. Clearly they decided to do TFC no favours. We can imagine reasons why, but there are solid economic reasons (broadcast rights) why they would want two American teams in the final. A deliberate decision to make things difficult for the Canadian team? It's possible. Especially with Bradley and Jozy no longer on the US national team, there's no longer any "feel good" red, white and blue angle to a TFC win.
It's less likely that the coaching staff is in on fake "injuries," that would be really hard to pull off without any leaks. The injuries are probably genuine. The difficult schedule is one of the reasons for the injuries. So it comes back to the league.
It's hard when it's all stacked against you. TFC probably could have overcome this if they didn't take the CCL so seriously, or if they didn't have a ridiculously difficult draw for that competition. However it's the only thing the team hasn't won, it's understandable why they went for it and will almost certainly go for it again.
Last edited by Oldtimer; 09-04-2018 at 07:16 AM.
here is the link
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/usa/mls/results/
it doesnt take long. it took me about 20 minutes to get all the numbers from TFC 2018
its pretty neat,
actually I spent a lot of time trying to figure this number out( the expected win probability with all our starters).But you are correct it is subjective. however I do think I am fairly accurate with this 10% number.
I would be curious to know what others think how the odds in any given game would change with 6 starters all playing??
this would be the equivalent: of playing with 6 starters out and the odds were 2.0. or even money then with our guys playing the odds being around 1.70 50%win probability vs 60% win probability
This is a difference of 10% win probability. so you mulitiply 0.10X34X3=10ppg
the difference in win probability X 34 games per year X 3 points for a win.
so injuries cost us 9-10 points.
I saw they way the odds changed with jozy getting the second suspension the day before the Portland game and how the odds changed when the lineup announced no seba, no jozy no victor, no mavinga. they started on Monday at 3.3 (30%) and went to almost 5.0 or 20% at gametime
so throwing away 4 points for the colorado houston games, underperforming by 10 points and injuries costing a further 10points
that equals 51points, so good news is we are still an elite team and we should be back next year
also underperforming could have been due to fatigue that bettors did not fully know about which was due to ccl and schedule.
and/or what Bradley said of the guys not pushing like last year
Last edited by stevep; 09-04-2018 at 09:18 AM.
Where do you guys get your tin foil hats?
Your conspiracy theories are embarrassing!
Loyal - Win, lose or draw!
Weston, Ontario
Too many assumptions baked into this to be certain we’ll return to elite status. Can our players perform at historical levels? Will other teams improve enough to close any perceived gap? These are things not captured by statistics.
I am still not convinced making a CCL run and a MLS run is possible. What’s the team going to do to avoid a repeat of this year?
Once we are formally eliminated, I would like to see management pitch the fans on what their plans are for the team. I think it’s a make-or-break year for Bez and Vanney
I agree next year is make-or-break. This club wants to be the best in concacaf. Vanney, Bez and co have taken this club to a very high level, but if they can't manage CCL then the club should be looking for someone who can.
Management works in cycles and styles. The guy who routinely brings teams out of the relegation zone is not necessarily the guy to win you the league. And the guy to win you the league isn't necessarily the guy to win you champions league.
Manning was on TSN 1050 this morning, and he said that he has asked questions of the sports medicine department, and why they have had all muscular injuries this year bar one. He also said they need to fix their defensive lapses, and they will look at the roster at the end of season. Said team needs 15-16 plays to compete in 3 competitions. Must not think we have 15-16 guys.
Sports science is strange. You get a differing answer from every physician you ask yet all them might work.
Might as well get Jobu the voodoo doll from Major League into one of the lockers to help.
Great point.
That being said, team should really have a long discussion about where we want this time to excel and how to triage. If its aim is to be in every tourney, then we need a massive amount of money spent creatively. I love this team but can't continue to sink money into my seats if they are going to burn the squad out by April with nothing to play for all summer. (and yes, not playing in November will help this year.)
Personally, CONCACAF has to take a back seat next year. I can't imagine fans will tolerate another crap year where we are done by September because we are chasing a poor mans Europa.
Now Jay Chapman is injured, FFS. Good that Manning is asking questions of the sports medicine department.
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