Assertion: Troubling Evidence of Implicit Racial Bias in MLS Refereeing

[DOMIN8R]

Troubling Evidence of Implicit Racial Bias in MLS Refereeing

Interesting and worthy of it's own thread, IMO. Mods, if you feel differently, please feel free to take corrective action.

[scooter]

agree and disagree hal because the referees in our league are shit dont think they can think that fast to be bias in any way

[flamehawk]

I know you are probably saying that in jest, but the whole idea of implicit bias is that it is subconscious, not requiring intentional cognitive processes.

Much of my work revolves around research on racism, and yet, I never thought about how it affects football on the pitch (usually think about things off it). Certainly troubling, but I am glad this is being looked at.

[Shakes McQueen]

Need more than one season of data to demonstrate that this is anything more than random variation. Especially with how terrible and capricious MLS officiating is to begin with.

Stuff like "40% of players are black, yet they received 58% of red cards" is a stat that can get skewed very quickly, considering not that many red cards are handed out. What was the MLS experience breakdown by category? What KINDS of foul calls did they get?

Keep collecting this data for a few seasons, and if these percentages seem consistent (or grow), then you've got a solid case. Or better yet, do this same analysis of past seasons.

[ensco]

This analysis would bother me if I worked in the league office. The data set may not be perfect, but it's not obviously terrible either.

The author is ambiguous about who did the study, and who is making the claim. It also needs some sort of independent fact checking and peer review. That all weakens the impact of this, but if I were MLS, I'd quietly have a close look at the data.

[GuelphStorm2007]

I do not know about racist bias but I am positive that the refs are really against the Canadian teams

[Oldtimer]

Stats like this on results are meaningless unless someone has a control group. For example, do white refs hand out more cards to black players than black refs? Otherwise there is always the chance that cultural differences in the players themselves affect the officiating. For example, South American players draw fouls on other players by diving more often than English players do. That's not due to racism on the referee's part, it's a cultural difference with the players. Similarly, since most soccer players also play other sports, do black American players play different secondary sports than white ones in the US? For example, it could turn out that maybe more black players for cultural reasons played gridiron and have ended up as rougher soccer players and maybe more white players played baseball and are more "no contact" players?

So yes, stats like this mean that one should take a second look and ensure that there is no implicit bias, but a stat based only on end results proves nothing in itself.

[Cashcleaner]

Need more than one season of data to demonstrate that this is anything more than random variation. Especially with how terrible and capricious MLS officiating is to begin with.

Stuff like "40% of players are black, yet they received 58% of red cards" is a stat that can get skewed very quickly, considering not that many red cards are handed out. What was the MLS experience breakdown by category? What KINDS of foul calls did they get?

Keep collecting this data for a few seasons, and if these percentages seem consistent (or grow), then you've got a solid case. Or better yet, do this same analysis of past seasons.

You'd definitely need a lot more instances to feed into the equation before any sort of conclusion can be made, and like you said, officiating in MLS is already pretty "wonky" (btw, that's a perfectly cromulent term).

But one thing I find interesting is how the writer implied that the mathematical aberrations of the study suggests MLS referees are inherently racist. As he points out here:

The conclusions are grim. They suggest black players are punished at disproportionate rates by MLS referees with regard to both fouls called and ejections.

Well that's good and all, but punishment occurs as a result of the perception of an illegal action on the part of a player. The writer is focusing on the perception component without taking a better look at the legitimacy of those individual calls. What if a great deal of them are undoubtedly bad decisions made by the ref? Or perhaps more uncomfortably to some, what if they are completely fair and reasonable? If we have a situation where there are a lot of questionable calls being levied against black players that leads to a noticeable increase of that cohort's overall total average - then a conclusion of racism at least has some argumentative weight behind it. Or conversely, maybe black players in MLS simply do commit more legitimate fouls. After all, if we're going to divide players into racial groups and make comparisons, then we're going to have to accept that one group is just going to occupy the top or the bottom of any given scenario.

[Shakes McQueen]

This analysis would bother me if I worked in the league office. The data set may not be perfect, but it's not obviously terrible either.

The author is ambiguous about who did the study, and who is making the claim. It also needs some sort of independent fact checking and peer review. That all weakens the impact of this, but if I were MLS, I'd quietly have a close look at the data.

The data isn't good or bad, but it is incomplete, and far too limited of a sample size to draw any conclusions from, like this article seems to try to do, after some quick throat clearing about how a) this could be random variation, and b) the study makes a strange delineation between "black", and "everyone else", in an incredibly racially diverse sport. What was the foul variation in 2014? 2013? Were the gaps roughly the same? Were they statistically significant? Were they inverted? How many calls were clear? How many were marginal? How many came down to referee discretion? What was the breakdown between the various individual officials? Did some show larger gaps than others?

Give me five years of data showing a genuine statistically significant variation (in other words, not p-hacked), and I'd definitely say a comprehensive MLS study is warranted. It could certainly be bog-standard racial bias, and lord knows the sport has some ugly racism issues in certain countries. Of course, in those cases it tends to be overt shit like throwing bananas at the players, or chants.

[bgnewf]

I don't but the assertion.

However I DO think there is inherent bias in MLS officiating. My assertion is the primary difference in the style of officiating leading to unintentional bias. In my opinion the Toledo's of the world officiate MLS matches much like they would if they would be officiating a LIGA MX match or a CONCACAF qualifier between Costa Rica and Honduras. The style of football played south of the Rio Grande - which rewards diving - time wasting - and penalizes almost ALL body contact - is to me directly opposed to the more athletic/physical style of football that the vast majority of MLS clubs and players practice. LIGA MX is not MLS, CONCACAF is not MLS.

[jabbronies]

I don't but the assertion.

However I DO think there is inherent bias in MLS officiating. My assertion is the primary difference in the style of officiating leading to unintentional bias. In my opinion the Toledo's of the world officiate MLS matches much like they would if they would be officiating a LIGA MX match or a CONCACAF qualifier between Costa Rica and Honduras. The style of football played south of the Rio Grande - which rewards diving - time wasting - and penalizes almost ALL body contact - is to me directly opposed to the more athletic/physical style of football that the vast majority of MLS clubs and players practice. LIGA MX is not MLS, CONCACAF is not MLS.

I agree with this.
There are refs that manage the game based on the latter style you pointed out - but there are only like 1 or 2 of them per season, then you never hear from them again