Let's not forget Vanney had Bez last year (who I think bat's 50/50 60/40) and he did sweet fuck all with that too.
Other than get TFC within inches of winning the CCL...
Vanney gets a pass for last year. The injuries were inevitable. Overuse. And they really caused the slide in league play. This year, no pass. If they get in a hot streak, all is forgiven. If not, it’s time.
Bez is so interesting to me. I can't really figure him out.
You go down the list and his post-MLS Cup win moves and extensions have all pretty much landed somewhere between mediocre and awful. Like, besides extending Mavinga - present injury concerns aside, that was an extension any GM would give - I can make a pretty good argument his best move since the 2017 offseason was picking DeLeon in the re-entry draft before this season... yeah.
And then he bounced before we really realized how bare he left the cupboards. It was kind of masked by the fact that we had such an unbelievable amount of injuries last year, but it became clear when you looked around and saw that we were stuck with an ultra thin squad this season until the summer window. Curtis shouldered pretty much all of the blame for that, and I'm certainly not saying he didn't deserve blame himself, but Bez really put him and the team in a tough spot. He basically made zero net positive moves for a whole year.
But you go back and look at how he started through to 2017, there's a clear progression in positive moves over that time. He really seemed to be getting better with more experience and so many moves in 2016 and into 2017 were slam dunks. Drew Moor signed as a free agent and Beitashour acquired leading into 2016. Will Johnson acquired, who was a big piece in 2016. Later that year Ricketts who gave us pace and a different dynamic off the bench for cheap. Then Vazquez, a DP caliber player available for below market value because he couldn't settle in a new country. And having the balls, frankly, to drop Johnson as quickly as he'd gotten him in order to get Vazquez, which was genius - Vazquez filled the role we desperately needed while Johnson could be replaced, and Johnson's value in the league has taken a nosedive ever since. I doubt we ever top that particular piece of roster management.
Then Mavinga, a top 5 MLS CB available because he was stuck playing as a wing back and wanted to get back into his preferred role. And Hasler as a cheap add who strengthened multiple positions and just fit into the system. I mean it's hit after hit.
I can't decide if he's an average GM who had a fortunate streak of incredible success, or a good GM who misjudged the guys on his championship squad.
And now Columbus is doing awful, although it's early days for him there. I don't know.
Anyways, to bring this back to Vanney... having Bez to lean on in 2018 was not a good thing. But he's got the wingers he wanted now, with a bonus in Shaffelburg, and I do think this team has enough that Vanney should be able to guide it into a playoff spot.
Curtis needled to sign what Vanney needed in the first transfer window. Failing to do that may cost the season. Yeas, he was in a difficult place talking over, but still he hasn't impressed, either here or in NY.
I agree that Bez had a tonne of hits folliwed by a string of mostly misses. It is strange, and Columbus is not doing all that well.
Vanney seems to be a very astute manager of strong squads but seems to have no idea what to do with a weak squad. So frustrating, I feel like his idealism gets in the way of sometimes doing something ugly that works with marginal players, which due to absences, injuries, and fixture congestion we've had to play with way too often.
TFC is a middle of the pack team talent wise, it’s no surprise to me they are at the pace they are in. It’s the exact pace I had them in, in the prediction thread
When Toronto first got Giovinco it was like having Messi of North America. This guy dominated Tigres and Club America and won us a shield and cup. Now it seems like other clubs have caught up talent wise and have the best player
- LA galaxy just got Pavon and already have Ibrahimovic and other great DPs
- LAFC have Vela and a completely loaded attack
- Atlanta has Joseph Martinez
As good as Altidore is, he’s often injured. Pozuelo is elite for this league but he’s also played an entire season before this and he’s not going to score 30 goals
I like what FC Dallas, NYRB, Columbus and others have done but the truth is the last few MLS winners have simply put had the best designated players.
If Toronto can go out and get a new DP at the level of a Vela or Pavon that would be an elite big 3 similar to that what we had with Gio, Vazquez and Altidore
This argument holds no water - the only reason our squad costs so much is our 3 DP's salary, which is a function of how we approach how DP's were brought in. We have gone now four times in a row with DP's who are in their prime & with a value in Europe that costs us. Most teams go with 1 DP like that, at most, and do 2 other DP's who are undervalued, for various reasons.
The quality of the team around those 3 costly DP's is the issue - recruitment of defenders & development of youth has been not good enough.
What we have gotten out of the rest of the team for the amount of TAM & GAM & salary cap is not enough. This is not a function of the 3 DP's salaries. It is a function of poor recruitment & a really really bad academy until recently.
The more I listen to him, the more I see what you are saying here. This also makes me wonder if the people he has around him as assistants are good enough in their roles. IF we make the playoffs (and I still maintain we won't), I hope there is a serious look at every single one of his assistants to see if we can do better. Because certainly on defence & when it comes to finishing, its not been good enough. And that's not just a function of the head dude.
Yes and no.
Certainly i would identify the quality of our non-DP players and their performance as the key to improving the squad at this time. No argument here.
However, the amount we spend on designated players vs. the average, budget-sensitive team should provide some sort of advantage. I agree, maybe that's not as large of an advantage as the sticker price in absolute dollars suggests. When we signed Bradley for example, we had a bad reputation and we certainly paid a premium to get him in the door. He was also more so in his prime at the time. So we have this big salary on the books now but it doesn't help as much as it used to. Great DP's may also not be enough to overcome a bad supporting cast (see: 2016).
That said, relatively, we are still spending far more money and should get something more than the teams spending far less. So I would expect Alejandro Pozuelo, for example, to have a larger impact on this team than Alejandro Bedoya has on the Union (at roughly one third of the price).
Last edited by ag futbol; 08-09-2019 at 08:40 AM.
^^^ That's a really good point about his assistants. They are key to developing the players, which doesn't seem to be happening well enough.
It's a question to me where they come from. Is it more a GM responsibility, or is Vanney totally on his own, or is there some kind of hybrid or group dynamic?
MLS is a tough, physical league, that emphasizes speed, and features plastic fields, grueling travel, extreme weather, and incompetent refs. - NK Toronto
Bez did a great job of building a championship team, you can't slack a guy for that.
He just wasn't good at maintaining it and he clearly wasn't ready for the challenge of potentially having to rebuild one.
RE: what he's doing in Columbus - different role IMO and hard to compare. Being president isn't the same as being GM.
FWIW, there's an Athletic article up about Bez at Columbus by Stejskal.
Precourt pretty much gutted that club on his way out - only 35 staffers in total when Bez took over.
I have said many times that Conway is not good. Every GK under his watch has regressed. Every single one. They haven't even stayed the same and zero of their issues were ever addressed or even slightly improved. Then again look at Conway's career. He had all the same dificiencies so what else should be expected? That's a position we should look to improve upon for sure.
And anyone know who exactly is in charge of working with our defenders and defensive set up?
If Vanney stays, it wouldn't be a bad thing to add a very defensive minded assistant to work that angle while Vanney does his best low budget Man City impersonation.
Last edited by Ultra & Proud; 08-09-2019 at 11:23 AM.
It is now pretty obvious that Bez was no talent evaluation genius. Why would he be? How much scouting has he done in his entire life? Who would be the core guys in his networks?
He is an excellent data cruncher/capologist guy- important but not sufficient.
Elite players come to play with other great players. In our case, the beacon was Giovinco 2015-17, and the light has gone out (Jozy and Bradley aren’t attracting a Victor Vazquez, or a Pavon- we can only getting these types OG guys as DPs, paying full freight.
I am pretty interested in what Seattle is doing here. No big signings, but 9 or 10 $500K-1M TAM guys... that is what I wish we were doing.
Last edited by ensco; 08-09-2019 at 04:20 PM.
"There are some people who might have better technique than me, and some may be fitter than me, but the main thing is tactics. With most players, tactics are missing. You can divide tactics into insight, trust, and daring." - Johan Cruyff
^ is he even that? He’s a lawyer by trade and someone who had the inside view of the leagues inner workings.
Quantitative genius... probably not.
He started as a pro player at the USL level and got injured early. He has a rep for helping write the cap rules for the league and being very good with numbers.
But none of that helps with player evaluation. If you don't have a network that can look beyond pure production or obvious physical attributes and recognize both the small technical efficiencies and the player's mentality/character, you're 50/50 at best whether the player fits.
The Gio type is not worth it to TFC or MLS and I will explain why.
TFC is averaging around 27,000 per game. all the 100's are sold, all the boxes are sold (assume so)
all that is left over is around 3000 seats on the east side in the 200's
Those seats might sell average for around $40 maybe $50.
so lets do the math 17 games X 50 x 3000= around $2.5M CDN or $2M USD
Giovinco is not going to bring out more people to away games, only guy that has ever really done that is Zlatan, he sells out the away game everywhere he goes
MLS owns half of TFC and half of every team
Lets assume Gio can bring in an extra 1500 people not 3000 people to the 200's every game, he is not going to sell out BMO field I think. I think 1500 people is a realistic assumption.
So he brings in an extra $1M USD per year
So assume you and MLS own TFC and Gio want $7M USD per year, would you throw out $6M USD/yr. NO you wouldn't.
Spare me the bullshit TFC will pay anything to win. This is a company MLSE and league MLS whose sole purpose is to make money.
I must confess I foolishly believed he was coming back.
Beckham did, but you're too recent a fan (or too young) to remember the commotion he caused in 2008.
BTW, Gio probably brought out more like an extra 5000 per game, many of them in the more expensive seats.
MLSE won't pay "anything to win," however having playoff games is an important corporate objective, as well as being seen as a contender. So they have to balance off a reasonable return for the salary. In 2016, trying to restore the franchise's reputation after 10 disastrous years it was worthwhile to hire Giovinco. In 2019, an older and not as good Giovinco was not worth a full 6 million, but was still worth something (however he was worth more to the Saudis).
Last edited by Oldtimer; 08-09-2019 at 10:04 PM.
MLS is a tough, physical league, that emphasizes speed, and features plastic fields, grueling travel, extreme weather, and incompetent refs. - NK Toronto
I was not a mls fan back when Beckham was around so I don't know about that. so in 10 years its jsut beckham and zlatan that sell out away games.
i dont think vela does.
right now all the expensive seats are sold and all that is left is around 3000 cheap seats
seba did his job he restored the franchise, now tfc and the league don't need him anymore at $7m/yr.
I definitely agree it is very important to be contender in this city. but if you can be a contender and spend $6M USD/yr you do it.
Playoff games are a zero sum game for the league, if TFC does not have a home game Atlanta or somebody else will.
also, if vanney had all these 4 new players at the start of the year and there was no gold cup tfc would easily be in the playoffs for a home game.
then how much would gio increase the win probability of taht said home game? maybe 5%. I don't know how you would convert that to profit but mlse sure does. and i dont think it is that much increase in revenue based on the small increase in win probability of any one home game
also we could never compete with saudi arabia as his earnings there will be tax free, here he will be taxed at 50%
Last edited by stevep; 08-09-2019 at 10:38 PM.