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  1. #1651
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    Quote Originally Posted by portu View Post
    If the story you have to spin is that Vanney is some sort of statistical secret genius to support him, then honestly I think that says it all

    is Zlatan a statistical genius? no

    watch this video, Zlatan explains everything, if Zlatan knows this you can bet sure Vanney does

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fKADYEP9qU

    also, read the comments people are making about the video,

    hopefully by doing these it will be clear to you what is going on
    for me it is clear as daylights after watching this video
    also, review my numbers and the probabilities in my earlier post, that puts it into perspective number wise.
    ps:it does not take a statistical genius at all to figure this out

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    More seriously, and joking aside, stevep is pointing out that we can't look at it simplistically (which I think some others were pointing out to him earlier, to be fair). In MLS you've got 2 trophies, the Supporters Shield and the MLS Cup. The Supporters Shield has only one team that can realistically win it, so the MLS Cup is the sole remaining goal.

    To win the MLS Cup you need to get into the playoffs and peak at the right time.

    I do believe that Vanney miscalculated the Orlando match (we were supposed to win that one) which was supposed to start the run. I think that he'll now go full steam ahead on the remaining games with his best squad, just like he did in 2016 and 2017 (injuries prevented that in 2018). Will it work? Well it has to at least get TFC into the playoffs if he wants to satisfy Bell & Rogers and keep his job.

    Zlatan is wrong about one thing, the Supporters Shield is a real goal in most seasons, its just that one team is so far ahead that they are pretty well guaranteed to walk away with it. The same thing has sometimes happened in Europe a few times in a few leagues.
    Last edited by Oldtimer; 08-14-2019 at 09:46 AM.
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  3. #1653
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    Okay, admitted that’s a fair take. MLS has only made the playoff system more absurd with the percentage of teams that make it being over 50%. (Side note: this has to change, what on earth are they thinking?)

    The issue I see is TFC needing to suddenly turning on the jets to 1) make the playoffs and 2) compete to win games in the playoffs when it matters. At our current trajectory we might just bubble our way in but I have no doubt we’ll be crushed when it counts.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ag futbol View Post
    Okay, admitted that’s a fair take. MLS has only made the playoff system more absurd with the percentage of teams that make it being over 50%. (Side note: this has to change, what on earth are they thinking?)

    The issue I see is TFC needing to suddenly turning on the jets to 1) make the playoffs and 2) compete to win games in the playoffs when it matters. At our current trajectory we might just bubble our way in but I have no doubt we’ll be crushed when it counts.
    Expanded playoffs meant you had to be pretty bad to not make it in, and MLS’ format always depended on getting hot at the right time (which was obviously towards the end of the season if winning the cup was your goal — it’s pretty much the only real goal for MLS, though the shield technically exists).

    None of this is much of a revelation.

  5. #1655
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    Quote Originally Posted by stegosaurus View Post
    Expanded playoffs meant you had to be pretty bad to not make it in, and MLS’ format always depended on getting hot at the right time (which was obviously towards the end of the season if winning the cup was your goal — it’s pretty much the only real goal for MLS, though the shield technically exists).

    None of this is much of a revelation.
    The Shield is more important for US teams as it comes with a CCL spot. A number of teams take it quite seriously, although the MLS Cup is a bigger prize, for sure.
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  6. #1656
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    More seriously, and joking aside, stevep is pointing out that we can't look at it simplistically (which I think some others were pointing out to him earlier, to be fair). In MLS you've got 2 trophies, the Supporters Shield and the MLS Cup. The Supporters Shield has only one team that can realistically win it, so the MLS Cup is the sole remaining goal.

    To win the MLS Cup you need to get into the playoffs and peak at the right time.

    I do believe that Vanney miscalculated the Orlando match (we were supposed to win that one) which was supposed to start the run. I think that he'll now go full steam ahead on the remaining games with his best squad, just like he did in 2016 and 2017 (injuries prevented that in 2018). Will it work? Well it has to at least get TFC into the playoffs if he wants to satisfy Bell & Rogers and keep his job.

    Zlatan is wrong about one thing, the Supporters Shield is a real goal in most seasons, its just that one team is so far ahead that they are pretty well guaranteed to walk away with it. The same thing has sometimes happened in Europe a few times in a few leagues.
    Regarding your last paragraph. Really good discussion by the two guys in the video regarding this issue

  7. #1657
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    Quote Originally Posted by stegosaurus View Post
    Expanded playoffs meant you had to be pretty bad to not make it in, and MLS’ format always depended on getting hot at the right time (which was obviously towards the end of the season if winning the cup was your goal — it’s pretty much the only real goal for MLS, though the shield technically exists).

    None of this is much of a revelation.
    Pretty bad? I’d say very bad.

    This is all some kind of sad joke. Playoffs are fine with me but at least the league should acknowledge the nature of this sport means having a prolonged postseason with more than half the teams is impractical.

    They need to move to a MLB or NFL type format.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    The Shield is more important for US teams as it comes with a CCL spot. A number of teams take it quite seriously, although the MLS Cup is a bigger prize, for sure.
    Yeah, not really.

    As much as anyone says they care about the Shield the only people who care in general are the fanbase who won the Shield but not the Cup in a specific year, bonus points for Shield plus getting blown out in an early playoff round.

    Most teams don’t care about CCL spots (we saw why), and they don’t even really care about the Open Cup either. Plus, you can get into the CCL without even winning any of them.

    Zlatan is coming from the perspective of many Europeans (also Eurosnobs) who have argued ad infinitum on the topic of playoffs/Cup vs Shield for ages.

    General consensus despite all of this: no one really cares about the Shield.

    I say this as someone who thinks playoffs and the Cup are kind of ridiculous, especially what they’ve become, and come from a background of European football where the Shield would normally be the real prize and teams care about continental competition.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ag futbol View Post
    Pretty bad? I’d say very bad.

    This is all some kind of sad joke. Playoffs are fine with me but at least the league should acknowledge the nature of this sport means having a prolonged postseason with more than half the teams is impractical.

    They need to move to a MLB or NFL type format.
    It has acknowledged that prolonged is bad (although grudgingly and mostly because of the international dates windows).

    4 weeks of single games & its done


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    ^ True. I still think from a competitive standpoint this is junk. Too many bad teams that still make it.

    Widdle it down to the top 4-8 clubs. Might even leave time for home and away games.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ag futbol View Post
    ^ True. I still think from a competitive standpoint this is junk. Too many bad teams that still make it.

    Widdle it down to the top 4-8 clubs. Might even leave time for home and away games.
    What’s a “widdle”

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    Quote Originally Posted by stegosaurus View Post
    Yeah, not really.

    As much as anyone says they care about the Shield the only people who care in general are the fanbase who won the Shield but not the Cup in a specific year, bonus points for Shield plus getting blown out in an early playoff round.

    Most teams don’t care about CCL spots (we saw why), and they don’t even really care about the Open Cup either. Plus, you can get into the CCL without even winning any of them.

    Zlatan is coming from the perspective of many Europeans (also Eurosnobs) who have argued ad infinitum on the topic of playoffs/Cup vs Shield for ages.

    General consensus despite all of this: no one really cares about the Shield.

    I say this as someone who thinks playoffs and the Cup are kind of ridiculous, especially what they’ve become, and come from a background of European football where the Shield would normally be the real prize and teams care about continental competition.
    We'll need to agree to disagree. We can all guess about hidden motives, and try to interpret what the players actually say and do. I think it matters, but not to all teams and fanbases. Some take it very seriously (just like some take the CCL very seriously) and some don't.
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    Quote Originally Posted by MightyDM View Post
    What’s a “widdle”
    I think "whittle" is what is meant ("to reduce little by little"). Comes from woodworking.
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  14. #1664
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    The playoff structure does feel like a criticism protection scheme for coaches and star players on high payroll teams that are not doing well *cough*
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Playoffs = exclusive cup competition

    I suspect when we see the one and done games this year, people will be more excited about it all. A lot of drama potential here.

    Which is why I don't think Vanney is let go if we make the playoffs and lose first round (this season).

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    There are several things we know at this point in the year. Let's run it down.

    1. We've played 28 games. 25 in MLS. 2 in CCL. And 1 in Voyageurs.

    2. We crashed out pathetically in the first round of CCL to a P A N A M A N I A N side.

    3. We are outside the playoffs in a system where you have to be objectively pathetic not to make it in.

    4. Even if we do make playoffs, it is highly unlikely that we see any home games.

    5. Our payroll is one of the highest in the league and has only grown since the season began.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    Playoffs = exclusive cup competition

    I suspect when we see the one and done games this year, people will be more excited about it all. A lot of drama potential here.

    Which is why I don't think Vanney is let go if we make the playoffs and lose first round (this season).
    Agreed. If he was fired it would be very disruptive to the organization, and to his family and why? All because he lost a coin toss

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    Quote Originally Posted by stevep View Post
    Agreed. If he was fired it would be very disruptive to the organization, and to his family and why? All because he lost a coin toss
    What coin toss? Genuinely.

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    Quote Originally Posted by portu View Post
    What coin toss? Genuinely.
    Let's say tfc has an away game the first game of the playoffs.
    At best case scenario tfc has a 50% chance of winning the game.
    That is same odds as a coin flip
    What do you think the odds of tfc winning the first game of the playoffs if they are the away team

  20. #1670
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    Quote Originally Posted by portu View Post

    5. Our payroll is one of the highest in the league and has only grown since the season began.
    Total payroll means nothing when it's tied up in two players (Jozy and Bradley) who at this point are no way near top players in this league.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    We'll need to agree to disagree. We can all guess about hidden motives, and try to interpret what the players actually say and do. I think it matters, but not to all teams and fanbases. Some take it very seriously (just like some take the CCL very seriously) and some don't.
    Here’s last year’s thread on the subject (which comes up every year).

    https://www.reddit.com/r/MLS/comment...shield_or_cup/

    Do any teams prioritize the Shield over the Cup from the start of the season? No.

    Does the Shield actually mean anything without a balanced schedule? Not really.

    Toronto FC’s prioritization of CCL was one of the first times an MLS team had valued the competition more than the season which is why it was such a feat. Normally teams don’t really care, and Toronto FC’s hangover season was a good reason to NOT care about the CCL.

    Agree to disagree all you want, but I can’t find any team FOs prioritizing these competitions year in year out. While I also care about these two trophies, saying that some teams do and some teams don’t is a cop out when the reality is that one thing matters and everything else is a consolation prize.

  22. #1672
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    If you base it on a reddit thread, I have nothing further to say. Again, I don't agree with you and we'll leave it at that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stevep View Post
    Let's say tfc has an away game the first game of the playoffs.
    At best case scenario tfc has a 50% chance of winning the game.
    That is same odds as a coin flip
    What do you think the odds of tfc winning the first game of the playoffs if they are the away team
    It's definitely not as high as 50%. And not because of anything relating to our team really... any team playing a one-off away game against a higher seed is going to have the odds stacked against them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    If you base it on a reddit thread, I have nothing further to say. Again, I don't agree with you and we'll leave it at that.
    Right, hence general consensus.

  25. #1675
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    So Curtis and Manning attended the team practice before the Orlando game.

    It is never a good sign when your boss is micromanaging you. It means that they (1) think that things aren't going well and (2) they want to see if the coach is part of the problem

    Now they may ultimately decide that the problem is the exact team composition of a team in transition, or the assistants and not the coach, but it's a clear signal that Vanney is on thin ice.

    Vanney will be gone if they figure he can't work with the lower-cost, lower-quality team that Curtis and Manning are assembling which is most certainly not Man City. They may have already made that decision.
    Last edited by Oldtimer; 08-16-2019 at 09:00 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    Vanney will be gone if they figure he can't work with the lower-cost, lower-quality team that Curtis and Manning are assembling which is most certainly not Man City. They may have already made that decision.
    Lower cost? Not really, we are still spending a ton comparative to the rest of the league. Quality? I think you can make a strong argument on paper this is a very talented team, should be a top 5 team in the league. Changes have been made, speed and depth added. If they can't win 6 of the final 9 matches remaining then clearly something is up with Vanney and the players and a change is needed.
    I just dont understand, or buy the point that somehow Curtis/Manning are building a cheaper team, they've already shown this season they are willing to spend. That's the least of our issues.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    So Curtis and Manning attended the team practice before the Orlando game.

    It is never a good sign when your boss is micromanaging you. It means that they (1) think that things aren't going well and (2) they want to see if the coach is part of the problem

    Now they may ultimately decide that the problem is the exact team composition of a team in transition, or the assistants and not the coach, but it's a clear signal that Vanney is on thin ice.

    Vanney will be gone if they figure he can't work with the lower-cost, lower-quality team that Curtis and Manning are assembling which is most certainly not Man City. They may have already made that decision.
    Is this true? As others have said, we're still paying a ton on salaries and transfers.

    So far Curtis has put absolutely no mark on the team. I honestly don't know what he brings to the table, if anything. I don't see evidence of an approach to the roster. Seems like business as usual except for what appears to be somewhat less astute signings compared to the early days of Bez. Maybe it's still too early....

  28. #1678
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    There is scuttlebutt that Curtis is here to not spend money.

    This pretty much should have died when they got Pozuelo as that was not a cheap buy.

    But, lets face it, after Lieweke, everybody is going to look like a beancounter.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Canary10 View Post
    Is this true? As others have said, we're still paying a ton on salaries and transfers.

    So far Curtis has put absolutely no mark on the team. I honestly don't know what he brings to the table, if anything. I don't see evidence of an approach to the roster. Seems like business as usual except for what appears to be somewhat less astute signings compared to the early days of Bez. Maybe it's still too early....
    inclined to agree with this. Arguably new TAM signings are his, even then we dont know if theyre poor or not. Likely wont see his markings until next season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    There is scuttlebutt that Curtis is here to not spend money.

    This pretty much should have died when they got Pozuelo as that was not a cheap buy.

    But, lets face it, after Lieweke, everybody is going to look like a beancounter.
    Yep, this is the truth. While I think I’m probably the one of the ones who made the Manchester City comparisons in the first place, it’s not necessary to have a highly-paid squad to play possession football (See: Ajax).

    TFC still does pay a lot of money for their squad. Instead of “expensive” the word “resources” should be used, because the expense isn’t what matters.

    TFC lacked (and probably still does) the resources to play this way, but not for lack of spending.

    City’s cash helped acquire the correct resources to play the way Pep wanted. It cost them a brazillion dollars, sure, but they were what he needed. That’s not the case with Vanney.

    The other thing is that this style of football is live or die by your weakest links. MLS isn’t comparable, because your weakest link is always some talentless American college kid or athletic journeyman filling out the roster.

    Talking about spending money is ridiculous when they’re spending money. Whether they’re spending it in the right places is debatable, but it’s also because this is MLS and even spending a lot of money may get you nowhere.

    Playing this style of football in MLS is on Vanney. Acquiring the resources is on the FO. If they can’t work together then we get what we have, period.

 

 

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