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  1. #211
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fort York Redcoat View Post
    There is nothing simple with MLS math. Simple meaning transparent.
    It's only complicated because they want it to be complicated because it serves their purposes. Kind of like the boilerplate in cellphone contracts.

    It's about counting actual bums in seats, TV revenues, sponsorships, jerseys. They do equalization but that's 90% of it.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Look, I'm not going to argue that our contracts make short term economic sense but fact remains years of mismanagement put this club heavily on the back foot. Mo, Anselmi, and Co. basically took a hot product and drove it into irrelevance.

    This is about brand repair as much as anything. Maybe the good times won't last forever but they damn well better last at least a couple of years, otherwise TFC will become largely a dormant, sleepy franchise, unable to get any traction in Toronto's crowded sports market.

    Maybe this is just Tim Leiweke talking, but the vision should be larger than the previously mentioned examples of FCD and RBNY. If that's the benchmark MLS should just say it's competing with Jr. A hockey and the national lacrosse league. It will never reach mainstream.

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    I don't think many supporters would have an issue with a change in the philosophical approach to building a sustainable winner. There is no reason why we should be spending 2-3 times more than the majority of clubs in MLS just to be competitive. It's not sustainable, and will continue to be a financial anchor based on the revenue TFC can realistically generate.

    Giovinco is an outlier, and must be retained at all costs because of his impact on the team's success. However, as much as I like Bradley and Altidore, there are comparable players in MLS earning a fraction of what they earn, and that's over 10 million in payroll right there. That's where I would start if I were Manning and I were under the gun from ownership.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ag futbol View Post
    ....the vision should be larger than the previously mentioned examples of FCD and RBNY. If that's the benchmark MLS should just say it's competing with Jr. A hockey and the national lacrosse league. It will never reach mainstream.
    Should it? If you owned it, and it was your dough, would you do that? Based on what evidence? NYRB spent up for years on Henry, Marquez, etc, what did it get them?

    MLS/TFC are losing the battle. I can watch 10 great Euro games any weekend. I will watch Bayern-Athletico on a 60 inch set in HD this afternoon.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Team revenue was projected above $50m for 2015. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...ticle16320629/

    and attendance was higher than projection - no link sorry ( personal source )

    MLSE doesnt think individual team cash flow, they think enterprise value and upside potential.

    TFC are not bleeding cash. Unless you consider the SUM parallel business as not TFC (which technically is true).

    if a presentation to a stakeholder like the city or a player union needs to get written to show there is no money, cherry pick what ever parts of the business you want to show.

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    Part of what was appealing to Manning coming to TFC was the resources at his disposal, those resources are not going to dry up.

    If a 4th DP slot opens up expect another 2-10 million to be spent

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeachTory View Post
    Team revenue was projected above $50m for 2015. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...ticle16320629/

    and attendance was higher than projection - no link sorry ( personal source )

    MLSE doesnt think individual team cash flow, they think enterprise value and upside potential.

    TFC are not bleeding cash. Unless you consider the SUM parallel business as not TFC (which technically is true).

    if a presentation to a stakeholder like the city or a player union needs to get written to show there is no money, cherry pick what ever parts of the business you want to show.
    MLS is all about that. Garber can say the league is losing millions at CBA time but meanwhile all kinds of rich people are waving $100M checks in the air to get in.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeachTory View Post
    Team revenue was projected above $50m for 2015. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...ticle16320629/

    and attendance was higher than projection - no link sorry ( personal source )

    MLSE doesnt think individual team cash flow, they think enterprise value and upside potential.
    Have you got a link for this? If it's true, why do they think so differently about this one part of their business as opposed to all the others?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beach_Red View Post
    Have you got a link for this? If it's true, why do they think so differently about this one part of their business as opposed to all the others?
    This "enterprise value" thing was a Peddie special. Not sure we've seen it since. He talked about that all the time, he thought he deserved to get paid because he was "building enterprise value" (ie because the stock market was going up).

    If Teachers had bought Rogers and Bell stock in 1998, instead of MLSE, and sold that stock when they sold MLSE, they'd have made 3-5x more than they did.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    This "enterprise value" thing was a Peddie special. Not sure we've seen it since. He talked about that all the time, he thought he deserved to get paid because he was "building enterprise value" (ie because the stock market was going up).

    If Teachers had bought Rogers and Bell stock in 1998, instead of MLSE, and sold that stock when they sold MLSE, they'd have made 3-5x more than they did.
    Perhaps they'll sell a stake in the team; that would cover them both in terms of "enterprise value" (because the purchase price would be partly based on assessed market value, not franchise price) and lowering their immediate losses from the last three seasons.

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    When the sheikhs started investing in FC Barcelona, they were bleeding money like no tomorrow. Right now, the investment has earned them back more than they put in, FC Barcelona is one heck of a profitable brand and team even with their high player salaries. This is a longterm play for MLSE, one day it will generate more cashflow than the Leafs. Book it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mistercorporate View Post
    When the sheikhs started investing in FC Barcelona, they were bleeding money like no tomorrow. Right now, the investment has earned them back more than they put in, FC Barcelona is one heck of a profitable brand and team even with their high player salaries. This is a longterm play for MLSE, one day it will generate more cashflow than the Leafs. Book it.

    Barcelona is in massive debt and remain so even with the Sheiks. They bought the Barcelona the brand to ease the world into being okay with slave owners and human rights abusers having a World Cup. There's not much else to it. If spanish courts/banks ever enforced their rules in regards to the big clubs then Barca, Madrid and Atletico would be majorly fucked financially. None of those clubs are going to be in any sort of stable financial footing any time soon.

    But I agree with your overall point on TFC re investment. It's a very long term one, and MLSE are okay with subsidizing us through the Leafs, Raptors and whatever any other ventures for the time being.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeachTory View Post
    Team revenue was projected above $50m for 2015. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...ticle16320629/

    and attendance was higher than projection - no link sorry ( personal source )

    MLSE doesnt think individual team cash flow, they think enterprise value and upside potential.

    TFC are not bleeding cash. Unless you consider the SUM parallel business as not TFC (which technically is true).

    if a presentation to a stakeholder like the city or a player union needs to get written to show there is no money, cherry pick what ever parts of the business you want to show.
    The SUM numbers that were posted are incorrect. Just the US revenue numbers alone are $90 million per year ($18 million per team), and that does not include lucrative deals like with Sky Sports. You also have to convert the SUM numbers to Canadian dollars (which is how MLSE accounts for it), which makes it $22.7 million in revenue, not including foreign broadcast deals. Not $5.7 million. That $17 million error reduces TFC's loss to $8 million, which is the spare change that MLSE loses under it's seat cushions.

    In reality TFC is most likely profitable.
    Last edited by Oldtimer; 04-27-2016 at 09:52 AM.
    MLS is a tough, physical league, that emphasizes speed, and features plastic fields, grueling travel, extreme weather, and incompetent refs. - NK Toronto

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    I would make sense to assume if a team comes along and offers TFC a large enough sum of cash - then Seba leaves for sure. Either cos the team is too big for him to turn down or MLSE are too $$$ hungry and just want a return on him while his value is still high.

    Both of which I don't really see happening..well it can happen cos it's MLSE and they have proven to be daft at sports management...but I find it hard to believe they would do it.

    He's "the only name" people speak about when TFC are mentioned.
    A team led by Seba fills a 30K seat BMO field.
    A team of only MLS players may not. It's a risky move to assume it would IMO

    On Seba's side of things - where else in the world can he get the cash and the star treatment he gets in T.O?
    And IF he makes the Euro squad this year, what else would he be missing by staying in NA? Champions league football sure - but he never really played it when he was in Europe.

    If anyone goes - it's Jozy. At the moment, he's big $$$ for minimal return.
    That 3rd DP should be a young kid that can grow with the team for 2-3 years and then sell for big $$$ after that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    The SUM numbers that were posted are incorrect. Just the US revenue numbers alone are $90 million per year ($18 million per team), and that does not include lucrative deals like with Sky Sports. You also have to convert the SUM numbers to Canadian dollars (which is how MLSE accounts for it), which makes it $22.7 million in revenue, not including foreign broadcast deals. Not $5.7 million. That $17 million error reduces TFC's loss to $8 million, which is the spare change that MLSE loses under it's seat cushions.

    In reality TFC is most likely profitable.
    I'm presuming this is a typo?

    Also there isn't really an accurate way to gauge how much MLS teams make out of SUM given the USSF get a cut, they have an equity company with a 20% stake in SUM and expansion diluting the shares.

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    If a bump in TV ratings is a thing to measure success of what Manning is doing - and I'm not sure if this was his doing but - I think moving all games to the 7pm/7:30 slot was a great move.

    I've always said this needed to happen.

    In the summer - people are out in the sun, enjoying the day outside.
    When they get home, after dinner and are unwinding, they need something to watch.

    Most TV shows go on Summer hiatus.
    Most weekend Jay games are played during the day.
    There are not many other sports to split the viewership.

    TFC is the most likely thing to watch in the evening - as long as they get on the right channels though.

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    This idea of the inevitability of the long term growth of MLS is mystifying.

    Japan and the J League had a big head start on us - a way better academy-type system (high school sports there are massive). They tried it, spent big on Brazilians for years, and have majorly pulled back.

    This is our second try - the first was way more serious (Villa, Lampard and Gerrard pale in comparison tp the NASL players that came - I don't see Ronaldo or Messi coming over here, the way Beckenbauer, Cruyff, and Pele did. (Probably only Pirlo is big enough to compare to those guys).

    China is now trying it for the second time. We'll see.

    The reality is that there is Europe, then there is the big Latin American leagues, then there is everybody else, and nobody has figured out how to move up, in fifty years of trying.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Counting SUM profit/loss figures in MLS figures is like talking about Leaf numbers in reference to TFC. It makes zero sense.

    They may be owned by the same entities, but they are different businesses.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by jabbronies View Post
    If a bump in TV ratings is a thing to measure success of what Manning is doing - and I'm not sure if this was his doing but - I think moving all games to the 7pm/7:30 slot was a great move.

    I've always said this needed to happen.

    In the summer - people are out in the sun, enjoying the day outside.
    When they get home, after dinner and are unwinding, they need something to watch.

    Most TV shows go on Summer hiatus.
    Most weekend Jay games are played during the day.
    There are not many other sports to split the viewership.

    TFC is the most likely thing to watch in the evening - as long as they get on the right channels though.
    I wonder about this. You lose the families. They pay the freight.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    Should it? If you owned it, and it was your dough, would you do that? Based on what evidence? NYRB spent up for years on Henry, Marquez, etc, what did it get them?

    MLS/TFC are losing the battle. I can watch 10 great Euro games any weekend. I will watch Bayern-Athletico on a 60 inch set in HD this afternoon.
    With my (and I suspect your) value-oriented approach? No, non-starter. But this isn't a value play, it's a growth property. You need someone who builds things and takes some chances. Basically you can tap into the increase in the popularity of the game here if you are willing to plug some cash into it up front. Cheering for things half way around the world has a limit.

    I think this is an appropriate strategy for our market. RBNY has its own dynamic, I wouldn't use it as our bechmark.

    I'll argue the market has developed a fair amount since the days of the NASL.
    Last edited by ag futbol; 04-27-2016 at 10:34 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    This idea of the inevitability of the long term growth of MLS is mystifying.

    Japan and the J League had a big head start on us - a way better academy-type system (high school sports there are massive). They tried it, spent big on Brazilians for years, and have majorly pulled back...China is now trying it for the second time. We'll see.

    The reality is that there is Europe, then there is the big Latin American leagues, then there is everybody else, and nobody has figured out how to move up, in fifty years of trying.
    Genuine question - are there other highly successful sports leagues in Japan / China? I know baseball is big in Japan, but anything else?

    I think part of people's belief that MLS will inevitably be huge is - "well every other sport is the best in North America, soccer must eventually be to". And I don't necessarily agree with that but I can understand how people would fall into that trap.
    TFC management changes: "like adding a new fish to your aquarium of failure." - Shakes

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ben - D.O.W. View Post
    Genuine question - are there other highly successful sports leagues in Japan / China? I know baseball is big in Japan, but anything else?

    I think part of people's belief that MLS will inevitably be huge is - "well every other sport is the best in North America, soccer must eventually be to". And I don't necessarily agree with that but I can understand how people would fall into that trap.
    Japan: Baseball is first, second, third and fourth. Next is high school baseball (their national championship is like World Juniors for us, only bigger). Sumo there is like Grey Cup here - nobody pays attention all year, but finals are big. So baseball there is like hockey in Canada.

    Then it would be F1 and soccer, and maybe tennis and golf, which are both bigger there than here.
    Last edited by ensco; 04-27-2016 at 11:40 AM.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by jloome View Post
    Perhaps they'll sell a stake in the team; that would cover them both in terms of "enterprise value" (because the purchase price would be partly based on assessed market value, not franchise price) and lowering their immediate losses from the last three seasons.
    An interesting speculation. Especially if that buyer brought a soccer management capability to the table.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by Areathrasher View Post
    I'm presuming this is a typo?

    Also there isn't really an accurate way to gauge how much MLS teams make out of SUM given the USSF get a cut, they have an equity company with a 20% stake in SUM and expansion diluting the shares.
    No it's not a typo. $90 million U.S. greenbacks.

    Yes, 20% was sold to an equity company, but we don't know the terms of that deal, plus it's also offset by the foreign revenues which I haven't counted. It's quite realistic to count CAD$22+ million per team.

    Read this article:

    http://worldsoccertalk.com/2014/05/1...and-univision/
    Last edited by Oldtimer; 04-27-2016 at 11:41 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    Counting SUM profit/loss figures in MLS figures is like talking about Leaf numbers in reference to TFC. It makes zero sense.

    They may be owned by the same entities, but they are different businesses.
    You buy an MLS franchise, you get a share of SUM. It's not as separate as you are making out.

    However, the fact that the SUM money vastly changes the cost/profit/loss dynamic goes against the "accepted narrative" of some that TFC will sell off it's star players and spend peanuts in the future.

    That's what you want to believe? Carry on.

    I personally think they are following the LA model, but only time will tell.
    Last edited by Oldtimer; 04-27-2016 at 11:42 AM.
    MLS is a tough, physical league, that emphasizes speed, and features plastic fields, grueling travel, extreme weather, and incompetent refs. - NK Toronto

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    No it's not a typo.

    Read this article:

    http://worldsoccertalk.com/2014/05/1...and-univision/
    It wasn't in reference to the 90mil figure but the 18 million per team

    $90 million per year ($18 million per team)
    How was that worked out?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    You buy an MLS franchise, you get a share of SUM. It's not as separate as you are making out.

    However, the fact that the SUM money vastly changes the cost/profit/loss dynamic goes against the "accepted narrative" of some that TFC will sell off it's star players and spend peanuts in the future. Carry on.
    The buying and selling of TV rights for games other than your own is 100% separate.

    They should (and I am sure will) view those businesses as two separate entities as it relates to business decisions for TFC.

    You want to co-mingle the Leafs TV deals with TFC, just because the buyer of MLSE got both, it's a free country.
    Last edited by ensco; 04-27-2016 at 11:44 AM.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    You buy an MLS franchise, you get a share of SUM. It's not as separate as you are making out.

    However, the fact that the SUM money vastly changes the cost/profit/loss dynamic goes against the "accepted narrative" of some that TFC will sell off it's star players and spend peanuts in the future.

    That's what you want to believe? Carry on.

    I personally think they are following the LA model, but only time will tell.
    The point is business A and B are essentially unconnected. My ability to sell ice cream and used cars are separate. Someone might say "well you have to package both businesses together" and it is what it is. But I'm not going to prop up my ice cream operations using the used car bucks if the product can't eventually stand on its own merit. I think that's the point.

    Personally I think the long run potential of this business justifies the investment. SUM provides a means of support; however, you can't justify investing more in MLS simply because of the flow of SUM money. MLS as a stand-alone needs to be worth the investment (which I think it is).

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    I wonder about this. You lose the families. They pay the freight.
    Are you saying families pay the freight on the TV viewership or at the gate? Cause TFC at the gate isn't family oriented much.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    Are you saying families pay the freight on the TV viewership or at the gate? Cause TFC at the gate isn't family oriented much.
    The consistent start is probably good for TV. But for the gate, night games are bad for families, and families dominate the stands, away from the south end
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

 

 

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