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  1. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    Thanks for your kind words, 99%, wow, you need to talk to my wife!

    If the suits want TFC to stop bleeding money, what would you do?

    I bet someone talks about NYRB and Dallas at every board meeting.
    What makes you so sure they're bleeding money? They say they're not, where's your evidence?

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    ^Simple math. It's been done many times on here, not going to find it. If you don't believe me so be it.

    it is a certainty that others are doing what we do by spending $5M (or less) on players, not $20M
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    ^Simple math. It's been done many times on here, not going to find it. If you don't believe me so be it.

    it is a certainty that others are doing what we do by spending $5M (or less) on players, not $20M
    For short period of time, sure. But over the long haul, the most successful team in MLS over the last decade has been it's highest spender.

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    I doubt that Seba plans on finishing his career at TFC but currently it doesn't appear he's in a hurry to go. If MLSE is eager to cash in on him in the transfer market, well, it's possible I guess.

    Seems odd that there would be a sudden focus on belt-tightening from the MLS board, is TFC really losing that much money? TFC is still just a small part of MLSE's overall costs.
    Last edited by Detroit_TFC; 04-26-2016 at 09:49 PM.

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    this has become the TFC is going fold again thread,if some club in China offers 30- 40 mil for SEBA you have to think about it.great players come and go.

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    I think Rogers learned through the Blue Jays that you don't get bodies and eyeballs in this city without spending money. If they were spending like they were last March, nobody would be talking about them.

    BTW Blue Jays attendance tonight was 23 000 - not bad for a Tuesday going up against a Raptor playoff game. Last year, it would have been 12K.

    The pressure on Manning to succeed is there because of the spending. But there is little evidence that the spending involved is seen to be too much. Has anybody in management actually hinted at that? No. It keeps being talked about by people because, well that's how they think MLSE would think. But, is it? Do we have any reason to think that beancounters are running MLSE again?

    "while very successful teams are competing effectively with $4-5M payrolls" Actually, that approach is being abandoned by teams slowly but surely. The Rapids got Jones and will get Howard. The Crew spent money on Kamara. Portland spent money this offseason. These things tend to go in 6 month cycles. Right now the flavour of the week is LAG & TFC. If that was to be the 2 teams at the MLS Cup Final, you can bet that others would feel the need to spend money.

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    Quote Originally Posted by molenshtain View Post
    For short period of time, sure. But over the long haul, the most successful team in MLS over the last decade has been it's highest spender.
    That is a fair point.

    Manning was hired by, and answers to, suits with a significant history of cheaping out on talent (calling Beach Red).

    The Galaxy and Sounders are owned by a guy or guys, not a corporation with hundreds of millions of debt on it.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    If it isn't obvious, I'm just taking a wild ass guess here. Anyone got another idea as to what Larson is talking about?
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    I seem to recall a bunch of predictions that Bradley (especially) and Altidore would be traded to NYCFC or another American team when they were signed and I'm still waiting for those shoes to drop... I don't see us selling our biggest draw right after expanding the stadium. Giovinco will leave when he wants to leave.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    If it isn't obvious, I'm just taking a wild ass guess here. Anyone got another idea as to what Larson is talking about?

    IIRC, Bradley's contract is 3 years - not sure if there is an option. This is likely what Larson is talking about. (I don't see Larson as really thinking too much about MLSE board decisions)


    This sort of ties into what you are saying - TFC has to figure out what it wants to be long term. I think that discussion will have more to do with the vision that Manning has and whether Bradley fits into that and surfing that commitment or the acquiring of another DP type player through the MLSE board.


    i.e. Is the long term vision of TFC as set out by Manning best served by Bradley or by another asset.
    Last edited by OgtheDim; 04-26-2016 at 10:21 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    That is a fair point.

    Manning was hired by, and answers to, suits with a significant history of cheaping out on talent (calling Beach Red).

    The Galaxy and Sounders are owned by a guy or guys, not a corporation with hundreds of millions of debt on it.
    There is no example in the broadcasting divisions of Bell or Rogers of either of them spending money to retain talent. They never think, "If this show is a huge hit we'll make a lot more money," they always think, "What's the cheapest we can make it for and not lose any money?"

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    I don't see him leaving to be honest. He's almost 30. Once he hits 31 he won't be making the bucks he makes here in Europe. Why would he move to China? He's staying till he stops performing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by notthesun View Post
    I seem to recall a bunch of predictions that Bradley (especially) and Altidore would be traded to NYCFC or another American team when they were signed and I'm still waiting for those shoes to drop... I don't see us selling our biggest draw right after expanding the stadium. Giovinco will leave when he wants to leave.
    I definitely thought/think that re Bradley, but he hasn't played well enough. we'll see.

    The stadium wasn't expanded for TFC.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    $20 million in payroll for MLSE is chump change. they are paying Nazim Kadri $27 million alone starting next season in his new contract for chrissake. Truly believe that TFC from a MLSE corporate perspective is looked at as a 'long play'. The Leafs are a 'mature' product with not much room for growth. The Raps are growing but they will probably need a championship to get to the next level. Remember the majority owners of MLSE, Rogers & Bell, are publicly traded entities who need to manage to the next quarter (andmanage to the stock price) but who also need to show analysts and investors that there is a plan for long term growth. TFC, and for that matter soccer, is a big part of that. Don't really believe that Manning was brought in to turn TFC into some small market club. TFC is big potatoes in MLS, but a relatively small expenditure for MLSE.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mistercorporate View Post
    What makes you so sure they're bleeding money? They say they're not, where's your evidence?
    simple math.
    added US$19m in salary and with the fall in C$ it is now costing them C$25M.
    They are bleeding red ink

    in C$000s 2013 2016 change
    Gate 16000 16000 0
    Suites 2000 3200 1200
    Sponsorship 10000 6000 -4000
    TV/SUM 1000 5700 4700
    Concessions/Gameday 6000 6000 0
    Player salaries -4000 -29000 -25000
    Operations/academy expenses -18000 -18000 0
    Adminstration costs -6000 -6000 0
    Gamday expenses -4000 -4000 0
    Profit / Loss 3000 -20100 -23100

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    Quote Originally Posted by molenshtain View Post
    For short period of time, sure. But over the long haul, the most successful team in MLS over the last decade has been it's highest spender.
    Eh. Teams have won MLS cups and supporter's shield without DPS or just low priced DPS.

    LA's success doesn't indicate that high priced DPS are the way to consistent success
    “Years have gone by and I’ve finally learned to accept myself for who I am: a beggar for good football.

    I go about the world, hand outstretched, and in the stadiums I plead: ‘A pretty move, for the love of God.’

    And when good football happens, I give thanks for the miracle and I don’t give a damn which team or country performs it.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    I definitely thought/think that re Bradley, but he hasn't played well enough. we'll see.

    The stadium wasn't expanded for TFC.
    His play has nothing to do with it. Moving him was never the plan. If anything, it's reasonable to assume Bradley specifically agreed to come to TFC because playing in Canada means less spotlight and pressure on him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    Not sure they can be moved. We all know Seba can.
    Bradley and Jozy are unsellable on transfer market based on their contracts. Would have to go to another MLS team. You might get something for them

    They wouldn't sell Seba unless MLSE was in need of cash, but based on the all the $ they make of the Leafs thanks to the NHL salary cap, i doubt that is the case.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bgnewf View Post
    $20 million in payroll for MLSE is chump change. they are paying Nazim Kadri $27 million alone starting next season in his new contract for chrissake. Truly believe that TFC from a MLSE corporate perspective is looked at as a 'long play'. The Leafs are a 'mature' product with not much room for growth. The Raps are growing but they will probably need a championship to get to the next level. Remember the majority owners of MLSE, Rogers & Bell, are publicly traded entities who need to manage to the next quarter (andmanage to the stock price) but who also need to show analysts and investors that there is a plan for long term growth. TFC, and for that matter soccer, is a big part of that. Don't really believe that Manning was brought in to turn TFC into some small market club. TFC is big potatoes in MLS, but a relatively small expenditure for MLSE.
    Sure, and making TV shows for CTV is chump change for Bell, an entire season of "Motive" is less than a couple of Maple Leafs salaries but that's not the issue. They still never spend as much as a US show spends because the market is too small to make it profitable.

    Sure, there must be a long term plan for long term growth for TFC. Do you think it's hitting the markers so far?

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    Quote Originally Posted by bgnewf View Post
    $20 million in payroll for MLSE is chump change. they are paying Nazim Kadri $27 million alone starting next season in his new contract for chrissake. Truly believe that TFC from a MLSE corporate perspective is looked at as a 'long play'. The Leafs are a 'mature' product with not much room for growth. The Raps are growing but they will probably need a championship to get to the next level. Remember the majority owners of MLSE, Rogers & Bell, are publicly traded entities who need to manage to the next quarter (andmanage to the stock price) but who also need to show analysts and investors that there is a plan for long term growth. TFC, and for that matter soccer, is a big part of that. Don't really believe that Manning was brought in to turn TFC into some small market club. TFC is big potatoes in MLS, but a relatively small expenditure for MLSE.
    MLSE is not a wholly-owned entity by either bell or Rogers, as such the profitability of MLSE goes into other income/loss not EBITDA. This means both companies are not as concerned about profitability at MLSE as there regular 100% owned businesses where every cent is important.

    There is a nhl salary cap, the leafs spend basically the same on salaries whether they signed Kadri or not. Has no impact on the business. The Leafs are the the cash cow that pays for everyone at MLSE - BMO Field, seba, bradley, jozy, everything
    Last edited by Onyx; 04-26-2016 at 11:26 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Onyx View Post
    Bradley and Jozy are unsellable on transfer market based on their contracts. Would have to go to another MLS team. You might get something for them

    They wouldn't sell Seba unless MLSE was in need of cash, but based on the all the $ they make of the Leafs thanks to the NHL salary cap, i doubt that is the case.
    The size of their current contracts have nothing to do with whether or not they're sellable, the moment a transfer fee is agreed then a new contract is negotiated, their contracts factor in only really if the difference in contract sizes between us and the new club is so stark that they end up saying "it's not worth the pay-cut".

    Personally, I think they're both sellable but if we did they would be sold for so cheap that we would probably get more out of it by trading them within the league.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Onyx View Post
    simple math.
    added US$19m in salary and with the fall in C$ it is now costing them C$25M.
    They are bleeding red ink

    in C$000s 2013 2016 change
    Gate 16000 16000 0
    Suites 2000 3200 1200
    Sponsorship 10000 6000 -4000
    TV/SUM 1000 5700 4700
    Concessions/Gameday 6000 6000 0
    Player salaries -4000 -29000 -25000
    Operations/academy expenses -18000 -18000 0
    Adminstration costs -6000 -6000 0
    Gamday expenses -4000 -4000 0
    Profit / Loss 3000 -20100 -23100
    Where are you getting these numbers from?

    From first glance, I can see a couple of numbers that I want to question.
    1. Sponsorship money - there was a sportsnet (?) article that said TFC sponsorship money is alittle less than 20m.
    2. Attendance jumped by about 8-10k from 2013 to 2015. You indicated no change. Those numbers would increase both gate revenue, as well as concessions.

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    Yeah each time that chart is put out, the same questions come back and we all go

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    Just to spare everybody the same discussion, you can re-read all of us hashing through the detail about the same debate about TFC numbers starting here (continue down for about 20 posts).

    http://forums.redpatchboys.ca/showth...=1#post1780914

    Teams exaggerate their numbers, they all do it, although Leiweke probably belongs in a special category for his public statements on sponsorship .... I think Onyx's numbers are not that far off. I think we have so much scar tissue from the pre-Leiweke era, and therefore see it as a bigger abyss than it was from a marketing/financial POV - they had Frings, Koevermans, mostly similar attendance, and the 2012 CL run is probably the biggest success we ever had.

    All this is a bit beside the point. TFC are spending, and therefore not earning, or offsetting losses, $10M+ more than Vancouver. That is the comparable for TFC ownership, who are famously cheap in these matters. I don't buy the arguments that this ownership is committed to being a big dog in MLS, I see no evidence of that in their other media businesses.

    Who is kidding who? They'll support it to the level ratings pay for it, that's 100% how they think, and TFC's TV ratings are beyond garbage, and not moving despite the $10M+/year additional spend. Actually I'm not even sure about whether even that matters, given the way Rogers has cheaped out on hockey production and is in the process of wrecking a billion dollar ratings juggernaut. And anyone who thinks the Jays prove anything differently is not looking at the facts - we rank 13th in MLB payroll, despite there having all of a 35M person TV market that has proven it can drive enormous ratings, in a way that TFC/MLS never has, and has potential that is 10x that of TFC.
    http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

    Manning didn't build LA or Seattle, he built a money ball team.

    I think this is all staring us in the face, whether we like it or not.
    Last edited by ensco; 04-27-2016 at 07:10 AM.
    “What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by ensco View Post
    Just to spare everybody the same discussion, you can re-read all of us hashing through the detail about the same debate about TFC numbers starting here (continue down for about 20 posts).

    http://forums.redpatchboys.ca/showth...=1#post1780914

    Teams exaggerate their numbers, they all do it, although Leiweke probably belongs in a special category for his public statements on sponsorship .... I think Onyx's numbers are not that far off. I think we have so much scar tissue from the pre-Leiweke era, and therefore see it as a bigger abyss than it was from a marketing/financial POV - they had Frings, Koevermans, mostly similar attendance, and the 2012 CL run is probably the biggest success we ever had.

    All this is a bit beside the point. TFC are spending, and therefore not earning, or offsetting losses, $10M+ more than Vancouver. That is the comparable for TFC ownership, who are famously cheap in these matters. I don't buy the arguments that this ownership is committed to being a big dog in MLS, I see no evidence of that in their other media businesses. They'll support it to the level ratings pay for it, that's 100% how they think, and this team's TV ratings are not moving despite the $10M+/year additional spend.

    Manning didn't build LA or Seattle, he built a money ball team.

    I think this is all staring us in the face, whether we like it or not.
    Yeah but where did the other two architects go? Kreis went to NYCFC and Lagerway went to Seattlge both of which are big spenders. I think Manning's move to us aligns with his cohort's in that each move represented a massive step up in financial wherewithal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by portu View Post
    The size of their current contracts have nothing to do with whether or not they're sellable, the moment a transfer fee is agreed then a new contract is negotiated, their contracts factor in only really if the difference in contract sizes between us and the new club is so stark that they end up saying "it's not worth the pay-cut".

    Personally, I think they're both sellable but if we did they would be sold for so cheap that we would probably get more out of it by trading them within the league.
    The idea is that they're not going to leave for a pay cut, which they'd have to take if they went back to europe. Club can't force them to leave if they don't want to leave their contracts.

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    There is nothing simple with MLS math. Simple meaning transparent.
    FORMER FULL TIME KOOL-AID DRINKER

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    My take on Larsons comments was that Vanneys contract expires end of season. Vanney will want an extension or talks to begin in the summer. Does Manning do a deal in the summer or let the season playout, hire Kreis (Kreis could come off the table in the summer? Atlanta have said they want to hire a coach soon) instead or is there pressure from board/sebas agent to get big name coach in.

    Given it was in a Vanney related it thread, i've got to believe its Vanney related.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OgtheDim View Post
    IIRC, Bradley's contract is 3 years - not sure if there is an option. This is likely what Larson is talking about. (I don't see Larson as really thinking too much about MLSE board decisions)


    This sort of ties into what you are saying - TFC has to figure out what it wants to be long term. I think that discussion will have more to do with the vision that Manning has and whether Bradley fits into that and surfing that commitment or the acquiring of another DP type player through the MLSE board.


    i.e. Is the long term vision of TFC as set out by Manning best served by Bradley or by another asset.
    Bradleys deal is six years. From Leiwekes mouthpiece when Bradley was signed...

    Bradley gets an even bigger bump, a six-year, $36 million contract

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    Quote Originally Posted by Areathrasher View Post
    My take on Larsons comments was that Vanneys contract expires end of season. Vanney will want an extension or talks to begin in the summer. Does Manning do a deal in the summer or let the season playout, hire Kreis (Kreis could come off the table in the summer? Atlanta have said they want to hire a coach soon) instead or is there pressure from board/sebas agent to get big name coach in.

    Given it was in a Vanney related it thread, i've got to believe its Vanney related.
    I think Occam would agree.

 

 

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