The Magic Number is...

[OgtheDim]

6


It might surprise a few people, but in theory we could be guaranteed to be in the playoffs by next Saturday after the Montreal game against Orlando.

Here's how it can happen:

NYCFC loses to Vancouver tonight or to DCU next Friday.

We beat Philly.

Montreal beats Orlando


None of those are guaranteed of course but that's what the potential sits at. The most important thing is, we must beat Philly.


A win against Philly means Philly can't catch us. And, remember, Orlando plays NYCFC once more.



The Tie Breaking Rules

• Total number of wins
• Goal Differential (GD)
• Goals For (GF)
• Fewest Disciplinary Points
• Road Goals Differential
• Road Goal For
• Home Goals Differential
• Home Goal For
• Coin Toss (2 clubs) or Drawing of Lots (3 or more)

All of Orlando Philly and New York have to win out to tie us on wins. Any tie by them and the tiebreaker will fall to us.

[flatpicker]

Ugh... math...

[Ivy]

Duane posted a funny number also...
TFC is as many points away from the Shield as they are from being out of the playoffs.

[ensco]

East is tightening up across the board. DCU in a tail spin. Both TFC and Montreal now have a legit shot at 4th or better.

[ManUtd4ever]

The East is still wide open. A lot can change over the final few games. I've never seen it this tight in the standings from 1st to 6th.

[OgtheDim]

As Larson pointed out:


the magic number is 4. Because of the tie breakers.

[michaeltfc91]

As Larson pointed out:


the magic number is 4. Because of the tie breakers.

Technically it's 5. Because if we get 4 ties and Orlando goes 3-0-0 and win by a combined 12 goals they advance on goal difference as they tie our win total.

Regardless I don't think we even want to clinch next weekend. Don't we want NYC to beat dc and want Orlando to beat Mtl so that we can move into top 4 with a win? We should trust ourselves more and hope NYC and Orlando beat the teams around us. Then again if that happens and we lose vs. Phili it's going to be badddddd. It depends what you want. I want top 4 in the east and top 10 in Mls. That is success to me

[Joe Kool]

All I know is the second we clinch the playoffs, if we do that is, the renewal note will hit our email inboxes the next day.

[ensco]

We've blasted through our single season points record. I think the 39 points we got in 2009 (in 30 games) was the previous best.

Yay.

[ensco]

The odds the we will play the Impact in the playoff knockout game are not small.....

[akoto]

The way they have been playing lately, I really hope we don't.

[Pint]

I've looked at it and if:

We win... then all we need is for orlando and NYC not to pick up full points

We draw... then need to lose

[ensco]

We should re-title this the playoff thread.

We're still 60% likely to make it even if we lose all 4 remaining games. A win Saturday takes that to 97%.

What's interesting is the fairly even distribution of outcomes around where we will finish. There is pretty much an equal chance that we will finish anywhere between second and sixth.

If we win 3 of the 4 games, there is a 67% chance that we finish second.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/TorontoFC.html

[Initial B]

We should re-title this the playoff thread.

Don't jinx it!!!

[ensco]

Don't jinx it!!!

We are going to make it.

What I actually care about it is finishing strong. These next 4 games will determine everything.

Have we turned a corner, or not?

Edging into an expanded playoffs because we rode Gio's coattails, and nothing else, is not satisfying.

For us or for Gio.

[ManUtd4ever]

We have the weakest goalkeeping of all the teams projected to make the playoffs in the East. That is the primary reason that I'm not particularly confident in our chances to advance assuming we qualify.

[Joe Kool]

It would suck if we do make the playoffs if we just get blown out the first round. It would just gives TFC a reason to jack up our season ticket prices as they would look at making the playoffs, even if we get blown out, as major success and a reason to hike prices. I am going to stay optimistic though. I never thought we would have made it as far in the CCL back when we beat LA out to make it to the CCL semi-finals so I guess we have a chance with a little luck of hanging around a bit in the playoffs. Our goalkeeping situation and sudden momentary defensive breakdowns are scary though. If get some luck there our offense should be able to handle the rest.

[Fort York Redcoat]

Don't jinx it!!!

I knew it! You're one of those that allow negative prediction to rule so as to avoid the positive jinx! Aren't you afraid of the DOUBLE jinx??? When your prediction of failure comes true?

Oh wait. The double jinx is just pessimism...

(All said in good fun, B)

[ChrisFizik]

haha, should I add some code to the board to remove all mentions of the P-word? hahaha (just might)

[Chevy]

Took a look at the remaining games today for the top six clubs and here are my thoughts on the p****** matchups:

1. NYRB (1st round bye)
2. NE (1st round bye)
3. DC
4. TFC
5. Piss Stains
6. MONTREAL

So...DC home to Montreal and TFC home to Columbus in the first round.

[Fort York Redcoat]

p******

Godamnit Fizik it took me half the day trying to figure out what expletive is that long. Ridiculous.

[molenshtain]

We have the weakest goalkeeping of all the teams projected to make the p******s in the East. That is the primary reason that I'm not particularly confident in our chances to advance assuming we qualify.

The Galaxy won the cup with Josh Saunders in net. It's not that big of a deal.

[J-Man]

What day would the first round start for the p......s

[molenshtain]

What day would the first round start for the p......s

wednesday the 28th is the day of the one off games I believe. Then The first round of home and away's starts that weekend.

[Ultra & Proud]

The Galaxy won the cup with Josh Saunders in net. It's not that big of a deal.

People keep saying that but Saunders burned us a few times this year and as 'bad' as he may be, he is still better and more proven than any of ours.

And if you think the GK spot is no big deal, see what happens in the p******s when the opponents are gifted a minimum of a goal per match. When it's tight, it matters and I expect it tight because teams are going to press the living fuck out of us.

[ChrisFizik]

p******

Godamnit Fizik it took me half the day trying to figure out what expletive is that long. Ridiculous.

lol! couldn't resist.

Yes that's right everyone - *Superstition anti-jinx mode has been activated*

[spe18]

Well, Toronto FC`s p******s clinching scenarios have been posted on mlssoccer.com!!!!!!!

Toronto FC will clinch a berth in the p******s if ...

• Toronto FC win vs. Philadelphia Union on Saturday AND
• Orlando City SC lose or tie vs. Montreal Impact on Saturday AND
• New York City FC lose or tie vs. D.C. United on Friday

OR

• Toronto FC tie vs. Philadelphia Union on Saturday AND
• Orlando City SC lose vs. Montreal Impact on Saturday AND
• New York City FC lose or tie vs. D.C. United on Friday

http://www.mlssoccer.com/p******-scenarios

[FRANKIE65]

Well, Toronto FC`s p******s clinching scenarios have been posted on mlssoccer.com!!!!!!!

Toronto FC will clinch a berth in the p******s if ...

• Toronto FC win vs. Philadelphia Union on Saturday AND
• Orlando City SC lose or tie vs. Montreal Impact on Saturday AND
• New York City FC lose or tie vs. D.C. United on Friday

OR

• Toronto FC tie vs. Philadelphia Union on Saturday AND
• Orlando City SC lose vs. Montreal Impact on Saturday AND
• New York City FC lose or tie vs. D.C. United on Friday

http://www.mlssoccer.com/p******-scenarios

I'll take the TFC win, and draws in the other two games please!!! The Reds clinch plus the Impact get slowed down a bit. That team has been on a freakin' tear since Drogba showed up.

[Fort York Redcoat]

P******s attention...WORKS. Just like MLS.

[ensco]

So: how much does seeding matter? I think a lot.

Breakdown below of the team's record by conference, and rank in the east.

1) We are where we are because we are 8-0 against Philly, Orlando and Montreal (pre-Drogba). To be fair, Orlando are a better than .500 team away from TFC, our domination of them is not about beating up on an expansion team.
2) We have been hopeless on the road against better teams (2-7-1 if you strip out non-p***** teams in the east, 1-7-1 since opening day)


East p****** teams: (3-3-3 overall, 1-2-1 at BMO)
Columbus 0-1-1
Montreal 2-0
DCU 1-0-1
New England 0-2-1
NYRB 0-1

East Non-p****** teams: (7-3-1 overall, 5-1 at BMO)
Orlando 3-0
Philadelphia 3-0
Chicago 1-1
NYCFC 0-2-1

West: (4-6, 3-2 at BMO)
Vancouver 1-0
RSL 0-1
Dallas 0-1
Houston 0-1
Portland 1-0
SJ 1-0
LA 0-1
SKC 0-1
Seattle 0-1
Colorado 1-0