OK. I appreciate that you took the time to do that.Originally Posted by Ultra & Proud
Now the bad news: that "analysis" is terrible, a joke. You don't remotely understand marginal costs and revenues, among other problems. TFC was getting 17,000 people or whatever, and doing 100K in TV ratings, before any of these guys got here.
I am not here to police this, but please, no more of this.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
Attendance is slightly higher with room to grow with winning as I said. Shirt sponsor resigned for the same deal as reported earlier this season. Man City not sure about. They had an okay turn out and since it was part of City's sister club planned tour, MLSE didn't have to eat all the costs, just the appearance fee. And all the box and expensive seats barring one box from the last time I read about it were sold out for the year not sure about that club thing but there were people in it from what I saw on TV replays. That article never mentioned the cost of those but did say those club ones were on par with Leafs & Raps.
I did also mention the operating costs (I called it backroom costs) but not sure how much that is so I didn't drop a price.
I don't buy that line for a second. Back then my seats were almost double they are now. They were cleaning up then.when they were spending $4M on salary, they were making $3M a year.
I refuse to think that they are losing huge on this $20M salary. They could drop the roster budget to $5M or so, save $15M and by your numbers, break even. Operating costs will be the same whether we have 3 DPs or no DPs so all the expenditures minus the roster would be the same. Problem is that the incoming would be much different. The only reason we are okay now is due to our DPs. If you removed all 3 from our line up we would be were we usually are, basement. That happens and they can expect less seats sold, less advertising, less concessions, less everything. In that case then they may as well fold the team as what's the point in running a loss leader that will only have hope of being profitable if it has a budget roster.
According to Tim Leiweke, TFC projected to make $50 million in revenue this year and $60 million in revenue next year. So if Tim Leiweke is right (I am sure he's one who really knows the numbers unlike us on this forum), then TFC will be making money.
Yeah this too and also, I think those statements by Lieweke (and by association MLSE) might be one of the very few times that a North American sports owner or CEO ever went on the record saying they make money. And lots of it. Usually it's all crying poor.
again with this $60m revenue figure. As stated numerous times in this forum, this is a TL TARGET not actual number.
The clubs primary source of revenue is ticket sales, which you say are $18m. I would say that is on high side, but even so. How, do you get to $50-$60m. Thats their primary source of revenue.
Here is an example with more realistic numbers:
2012
Revenue 25M - operating costs $22M = $3m profit
2015 (add some additional suite revenue plus $17m is salary)
Revenue 29M - operating costs $39M = $10m loss
ML$E is massively subsidizing this team. I haven't even thrown in $120m stadium project (the club has to pay the financing on that - $7-9m per year) and $100m on players (the club has to pay the financing on that: $5-7milion per year)
All i am saying is if the new guy doesn't like soccer, he is going to say "why aren't we going back to the old profitable model" and bye-bye high price DPs. And just be prepared for that scenerio because with TL gone it is quite likely.
TFC has a real chance to be Toronto's only winning team. You really think a new CEO is going to come in and blow that up just for the bottom line?
Qman, I appreciate what you are doing. But I think it's hopeless.
There are so many posts in this thread quoting "information" and "analysis" and "go back, I proved this already" that it is disheartening.
I feel like I am being lectured about business by 12 year olds with lunch boxes that have Jedi Warrior decals on them, and no matter how many times they get called out, they keep coming back.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
Have any of the other CEOs before TL cared about TFC --- god No.
The new CEO will only care about 2 things, fixing the Hockey team, and making sure the cash cow hockey club keeps plowing the cash. All the other properties are an afterthought.
We were just lucky to have TL for 3 years.
Sit back and really, really enjoy this time.
Saviour Giovinco's play.
... b/c in a couple years, back to being another DC United, RSL or philadelphia union.
Last edited by Qman; 06-03-2015 at 02:35 PM.
Um yeah.
Honestly in the landscape of the MLSE major league sports teams $20M is not exactly a lot of money and not something where there will be big savings. That's why TFC was an afterthought to everyone before Lieweke; because it's small potatoes. It's almost like it was a quaint little novelty to have on the side when the real teams aren't tossing around the big bucks.
im a qualitative smell test kinda guy.
and the semll test says they are most probably losing money right now, but I believe they are in it for the long run.
THe long run has a lot of ifs though, IF champions league gets bigger/richer, IF friendlies sell big tickets, IF you develop and sell players, IF TV/SUM revenue comes in, and of course IF we win (and therefore rasie tic prices)
No investor would touch this scenario, but there must be something bigger to this. either cost sharing synergies make it really cheap to run this team, or someone's present value calculation came up with a BIG number.
You can also look it in a different way, going back to low paying DPs = zero fans. They may have unintentiatially and permanently raised the bar. They may have no choice in the matter
The long game may be dependent upon whether the forces behind the stringent salary cap can be overcome.
MLSE and the people behind OCSC and NYCFC are in the minority right now while the ascendancy seems to be with the Krafts and the Hunts. If this changes, and the league becomes a viable alternative for European and South American National team level talent, then MLS is a good long term investment.
I admit though, I don't see this happening. Every owner being brought in after this season is either an NFL type or a local investor - not the moneybags types. Although the cap could be raised significantly now, these types don't see the need.
That's pretty big drop off if total revenue is somewhere between $25-$30 million and $50-$60 million. Obviously, Tim Leiweke has seen numbers and predict revenue to be north of $50 million (but if it isn't, then chances being less $30 million is quite slim since I highly doubt TL stupid enough to think revenue will double based on extra 8,000 plus suites).
Right now, no one on here have seen numbers and know how much money is coming from gates to sponsors this year. However, I am sure getting dividend from SUM plays a factor of TL claim of TFC being north $50 million in revenue this year. I believe teams get $10 million from their shares in SUM which will probably increase now thanks to new TV deal and other factors.
Every single business I have been involved in has had tensions between competing visions of how to proceed. Doesn't make those who put forward different business cases less professional.
This, however, is a web forum. Unless somebody on here has experience running a sports franchise within a media conglomerate made up of two oligarchs and 3rd party with a desire for power without having to pay for it,
we are all amateurs.
Og, that is not what I am talking about. There is often a wide spectrum in life about what is reasonable. But that is not what is largely going on here, or in that Argo to BMO thread (I brought the discussion here to avoid the craziness).Every single business I have been involved in has had tensions between competing visions of how to proceed. Doesn't make those who put forward different business cases less professional.
This, however, is a web forum. Unless somebody on here has experience running a sports franchise within a media conglomerate made up of two oligarchs and 3rd party with a desire for power without having to pay for it,
we are all amateurs.
but I give up. It's a web forum, as you say.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
Even if Leiweke is to be taken at his word regarding the club's projected revenues in the foreseeable future, which is an incredibly optimistic forecast, there is no chance that TFC will be remotely close to operating as a profitable individual entity in the short term. Typical operating costs aside, the organization has invested over 220 million dollars in the last 18 months in DPs and the stadium renovation project. Prior to that, MLSE made a substantial investment in the training complex at Downsview.
As others have mentioned, the reality is that the team is currently being subsidized by MLSE. I hope that the long term vision for the franchise and the league that ownership has bought into eventually comes to fruition, but even then, it will take a very long time for TFC to be profitable again, assuming that fan interest doesn't wane in the interim.
As supporters, we should just be thankful that Leiweke made TFC his priority during his tenure and convinced the MLSE board to spend like a drunken sailor. Hopefully, the club will be able to turn things around on the pitch and enjoy a sustained period of success for several years. At least that will maintain current attendance figures and potentially boost abysmal television ratings.
BMO field investment was made so they can host OTHER (NON-TFC) events so they can make money. So it isn't fair to say MLSE investment into BMO field was solely on TFC alone. They will make their ROI when hosting Leafs, Grey Cup(?) and international soccer games.
As for $100 million claim, Defoe was sold for a profit (which cancel out his transfer fee paid to Spurs) while Micheal Bradley transfer fee was actually paid by the league. Giovinco came here without a transfer fee while Jozy came here part of Defoe deal. Gilberto will probably be sold eventually for a profit.
As for Training ground, Adidas paid some money to MLS clubs to set up their academy while Kia pays naming rights for training centre. So it isn't a lost cause (profit wise) when comes to training ground.
I'm inclined to agree with ensco here. This conversation is all over the place and basic mistakes are inherent in a lot of arguments.
I like what C.Ronaldo wrote without relying on any numbers. It's very hard to believe this club is making money right now.
According to this article in Canadian Press Leiweke was quoted as saying the team will not make money this year because of Giovinco being released early from Juventus so that they have to pay him for a full season - not just part of a season. He also says that they should make money in 2016.
http://insoccer.ca/2015/02/11/new-lo...fight-and-win/
NOTES: Leiweke says the soccer club will not make money in 2015, due to Giovinco’s early arrival. The club should turn a profit in 2016
ag futbol is right. This is a very good post.
I think this comes down to Leiweke's unusual personality. The DP thing really fits his conception of the universe, he came with that mindset from the Beckham thing, and he pursues that because it plays to his strengths (bigtime selling/spending/promoting). If the Leafs could sign DPs, boy this town would be on fire.
He steamrollers people, including his own bosses, to get these big splashy things done, so I'm not sure there is a big secret plan behind the DPs. When you are a hammer, everything is a nail.
Best guess: he did it because he could (and he knew the BMO reno was probably screwing over an already beaten down fan base...)
What happens when he is gone is truly anyone's guess.
Last edited by ensco; 06-03-2015 at 10:54 PM.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
Raising the DP bar is a good way to put it. It's a shame but it must be said this town needs Defoes, Bradleys, Altidores and Sebas to sway an already cynical fanbase. A playoff would convince most to stick around another year and MAyyybe they could be patient to be impressed by an unknown quantity.
I straight up fear TLs replacement will be more NA oriented and just give his attention to where the money is. Which puts us just above the Marlies.
FORMER FULL TIME KOOL-AID DRINKER
I disagree. The fanbase might have become cynical but it didn't start out that way. What the fanbase has always wanted is a well-run team from the top down but that's more difficult for upper-management to deliver. Much easier to throw money at the problem (that they created themselves).
Lots of NA sports teams are well-run, stable organizations. Just not ours. (but that may be changing which, of course, is why MLSE spent so much to get someone from the Red Wings, one of those well-run organizations).
Pretty much agreeing here. I'm saying we needed stars until the trust came back to the fanbase.
FORMER FULL TIME KOOL-AID DRINKER
Agree completely. I was totally happy in 2009/10 with Serioux, Cann, Nana, Vitti, Guevara, etc. We played decent and were in the mix with a squad of regular MLSers (well maybe not Vitti but he is no superstar DP type either). If we had kept on that trajectory instead of knee jerking from Preki to Winter and so on and having so many team/philosophy rebuilds, the fan base wouldn't be so jaded and we wouldn't need big names (at least not 3 of them anyway). But what's done is done. Management dug the hole and now we're neck deep in it until they earn their way out of it.
Some pretty meaty stuff here. Surprised Bell blocked Collins, if true
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/t...-proud-legacy/
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
Evidently you aren't aware of his resume. I'm not aware of yours, but it'll have to be pretty heavy-hitting to suggest to me you can argue bottom line with Eugene.Um yeah.
I like the operating model where expenses gets reduced to "backroom costs." Their travel bill alone is close to a million dollars per season. Their insurance is enormous. The operating costs for BMO are enormous. They lose fifty percent of all revenue andparking to the city, and most of their ad revenue on the boards goes back to the league. Their last TV deal was worth less than $2 million per team. Then there's the actual capped salaries paid out on top of the DPs, adding another $5 mil per in costs.
Then there's an equivalent amount, in all likelihood, for staff and executive salaries. I've done the budget for just one small twenty-person division of a major company and shit just adds up and adds up.
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