Argos to BMO decision - Wednesday, May 20th

[Onyx]

The seat sale #'s seem to be completely off the mark too. While I appreciate your effort to calculate the total revenue, I have no idea where you're getting the numbers from. Everything I've seen suggests average attendance of 23,500+ last season and a club record, while 2013 had the worst attendance in club history. I expect 2016 attendance and ticket sales to be even higher than 2015.

Appreciate those comments.
I know what MLSE releases as an attendance number, however, if you go to the games, you know you could move everyone from upper east deck and into lower east and it wouldn't be full. "Actual" attendance seems basically the same at in 2013 basically 20-21k. Your right, maybe i should have used 18000 average for 2013.
- I used 20,000 in my numbers.
- I also used 20 home games, instead of 17 (including 2 home CCL games + a friendly) .. this is aggressive (more likely 18 home games)
- I also used $40 average ticket price ($800 season ticket), i think this is pretty high vast majority of season ticket holders seem to be are light grey or below, and expensive seats sit empty especially on east side.

I think i'm on the high side.

[Onyx]

First, the TV money alone is $90m. Where is the revenue made from SUM?

Second, TFC only pays for DP salaries above the DP threshold ($435k I believe).
So they MLSE pays Giovinco $7.1m, Bradley approx $6.5m (word is he took a cut) and Altidore $4.7m minus approx $1.3m ($435k x 3 DP's). The league pays the rest.

1.
Most of the money made from SUM is the $90m TV money. They do make money from events (US and mexico matches). However, if you have been watching international soccer last few weeks, most of the recent friendlies have been a disaster financially. USMNT drew flies to the two friendlies in carson. A mexico friendly in miami drew flies as well. I don't think they are making money right now on friendlies.

2.
Yes, i just simplified it in my example (to make it more transparent). League just nets salary cap against the SUM distribution to clubs (ie. the salary costs # is US$3M less and the distribution from SUM is US$3m less). no change in profit/loss. I just didn't want to get a bunch of questions on why the SUM distribution is so low and why salaries are US$3M too low.

[greatwhitenorf]

Wind Up Merchant, people.

[ensco]

I think Onyx's numbers are a pretty good starting point.

No way of knowing re sponsorship.

[notthesun]

Check out this tweet at https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/698688710758502401

Leafs are getting the Winter Classic next year. Skydome and BMO pretty much the only options in terms of venue.

[Ajax TFC]

Leafs are getting the Winter Classic next year. Skydome and BMO pretty much the only options in terms of venue.

Skydome isn't an option unless their vision of an outdoor game is an indoor game at a bigger venue. 100% It'll be at BMO

[ag futbol]

First, the TV money alone is $90m. Where is the revenue made from SUM?

Second, TFC only pays for DP salaries above the DP threshold ($435k I believe).
So they MLSE pays Giovinco $7.1m, Bradley approx $6.5m (word is he took a cut) and Altidore $4.7m minus approx $1.3m ($435k x 3 DP's). The league pays the rest.

He's looking at it the right way.

Corporations do goofy stuff all the time for tax purposes, for accounting purposes, or in this case to restrict bargaining rights. These things are not representative of the economic reality of the business, they are just a means to an ends.

Lot of black box estimates in the figures, but I think Ensco's comments about sponsorship money is on point. It's not as big as they claim and once you get past that it looks like they are front loading everything in an attempt to build the brand.

Not worried about the stability of the club but I doubt we make money at this point.

[OgtheDim]

...Leafs are getting the Winter Classic next year.

Sooooooooo..............what's all that heavy plywood and tech and the like going to do to a pitch we in theory will be playing on just a couple of months later.

[Kayaker]

Sooooooooo..............what's all that heavy plywood and tech and the like going to do to a pitch we in theory will be playing on just a couple of months later.

One option (I haven't heard anyone suggest it, yet) would be to start next year with a (small) road trip, say 3 or 4 games. That way if the pitch isn't in good shape, they lay a new one (in march?). I did hear that they expect to replace the existing pitch this year prior to the home opener. The only challenge would be to grow the grass a few weeks earlier next year (under a bubble?).

Of course it all depends on how bad a winter it will be.....

[Pint]

Not worried about outdoor hockey, they will lay the Terra tile system down and the field will hopefully have had a good freeze.

[Beach_Red]

He's looking at it the right way.

Corporations do goofy stuff all the time for tax purposes, for accounting purposes, or in this case to restrict bargaining rights. These things are not representative of the economic reality of the business, they are just a means to an ends.

Lot of black box estimates in the figures, but I think Ensco's comments about sponsorship money is on point. It's not as big as they claim and once you get past that it looks like they are front loading everything in an attempt to build the brand.

Not worried about the stability of the club but I doubt we make money at this point.

The Toronto team will likely be stable. Just like the Blizzard was in NASL. How many teams will MLS need to be as stable as Toronto for the whole league to be stable? Is the league where it expected to be at this point?

[Fort York Redcoat]

Check out this tweet at https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/698688710758502401

Leafs are getting the Winter Classic next year. Skydome and BMO pretty much the only options in terms of venue.

Is the winter classic the NBC one that people were saying is the only one that matters? Shame they are prolly respecting tit for tat with the Red Wings. Leafs and Habs is the only one I hold as The Classic to have as their first.

Not worried about outdoor hockey, they will lay the Terra tile system down and the field will hopefully have had a good freeze.

Yes , but will they rent or buy and try and use them for the Argos? Rhetoric since they won't decide shite till seasons end.

[notthesun]

Skydome isn't an option unless their vision of an outdoor game is an indoor game at a bigger venue. 100% It'll be at BMO

I really only included Skydome because of the increased capacity, but it's not well suited to this type of event. Fully expect it to be at BMO, agreed.

[ensco]

There is no discussion. BMO was purpose built for this.

MLSE didn't spend $100M for TFC or the Argos.

[Ossington Mental Youth]

Doesn't bother me as we don't use it at that time, makes sense too tbh

[molenshtain]

There is no discussion. BMO was purpose built for this.

MLSE didn't spend $100M for TFC or the Argos.

The expansions were done for a multitude of reasons. They didn't spend all that money so they could host one event one time.

[Pint]

Is the winter classic the NBC one that people were saying is the only one that matters? Shame they are prolly respecting tit for tat with the Red Wings. Leafs and Habs is the only one I hold as The Classic to have as their first.



Yes , but will they rent or buy and try and use them for the Argos? Rhetoric since they won't decide shite till seasons end.

Best guess is they will either be renting or the nhl itself may own a set or two of territile. The NHL has done these games at stadiums with grass before so at least they have an idea how to do it without causing too much damage.

1 off events far outside our season don't really bother me as they shouldn't impact us.

[ManUtd4ever]

Outdoor hockey games wasn't the only factor involved in the decision to renovate BMO Field, but it was definitely a motivating factor. The profit from one outdoor Leaf game will dwarf that of a TFC or Argo game, and will contribute to the bottom line pertaining to the operating costs of BMO Field, which is entirely on MLSE.

If MLSE can manage to orchestrate a series of outdoor games to be hosted on an annual basis that doesn't interfere with the Winter Classis/Heritage Classic with the approval of the NHL, it will be the equivalent of hosting a Grey Cup every year, or close to it. That will go a long way towards recouping their investment in the stadium renovation, as opposed to relying solely on TFC/Argo driven revenue.

[ensco]

The expansions were done for a multitude of reasons. They didn't spend all that money so they could host one event one time.

I didn't say that.

I have argued this extensively over the years - I believe they did this because they intend (or at least Leiweke intended) to play multiple Leaf games every year at BMO. That is worth incremental tens of millions a year to MLSE. That is why MLSE expanded BMO, and why they put a roof on it.

But trying to play multiple games a year there requires war with the NHL. Which Rogers doesn't want now that they are taking on water on their NHL TV deal. Which Bell therefore wants, badly. It must be total Game of Thrones behind the scenes at MLSE board meetings now.

I don't know how long it'll take, but there will ultimately be war between the Leafs and the league, the existence of BMO as a high-profit hockey facility makes that inevitable. The old "family compact" (the Leafs go along with what the US powers want - like the cap - in return for the monopoly), is therefore going to end too. There will be 1-2 new teams in Toronto as a result.

No idea how fast, though. That's the 64K question.

[Red CB Toronto]

One question which people started asking the moment this Bell-Rogers marriage began, how long would it take for a divorce, I am still shaking my head that is has not happened yet. As Tim found out, the board meeting are a mess, you have two rivals sitting at the same table, not way this lasts too long, how long is anyones guess?

I didn't say that.

I have argued this extensively over the years - I believe they did this because they intend (or at least Leiweke intended) to play multiple Leaf games every year at BMO. That is worth incremental tens of millions a year to MLSE. That is why MLSE expanded BMO, and why they put a roof on it.

But trying to play multiple games a year there requires war with the NHL. Which Rogers doesn't want now that they are taking on water on their NHL TV deal. Which Bell therefore wants, badly. It must be total Game of Thrones behind the scenes at MLSE board meetings now.

I don't know how long it'll take, but there will ultimately be war between the Leafs and the league, the existence of BMO as a high-profit hockey facility makes that inevitable. The old "family compact" (the Leafs go along with what the US powers want - like the cap - in return for the monopoly), is therefore going to end too. There will be 1-2 new teams in Toronto as a result.

No idea how fast, though. That's the 64K question.

[OgtheDim]

Its a death stare between the two of them as far as the Leafs are concerned - nobody wants to give up that content/cash cow to the enemy. And right now neither of them want to give up the potential of the Raptors and TFC. And LT has to keep them both happy, either by letting them think they are outvoting him or agreeing with either side periodically.

So, I think this goes on for a few more years until something somewhere else causes one side or the other to have to reconsider priorities. This is trench warfare.

[SoccMan2]

So how many outdoor games do people think the Leafs will play each season at BMO eventually? Moreover, how many more temporary seats can be added to BMO for these games, are we talking another 10 000 temporary seats, if so where would they all go? Can you put 5000 temporary seats in the north and 5000 seats in the south temporarily for these outdoor games? If that's the case then that's an extra 20 000 seats for any outdoor games of revenue just on ticket sales alone MLSE gets that they don't get at the ACC for hockey, that's a lot of extra cash for MLSE by playing outdoor hockey at BMO!

[BelfastBoy]

So how many outdoor games do people think the Leafs will play each season at BMO eventually? Moreover, how many more temporary seats can be added to BMO for these games, are we talking another 10 000 temporary seats, if so where would they all go? Can you put 5000 temporary seats in the north and 5000 seats in the south temporarily for these outdoor games? If that's the case then that's an extra 20 000 seats for any outdoor games of revenue just on ticket sales alone MLSE gets that they don't get at the ACC for hockey, that's a lot of extra cash for MLSE by playing outdoor hockey at BMO!

Would need a crystal ball. They will be up to 40k for the Grey Cup in November so makes sense to have the Winter Classic Jan 1st. Beyond that who knows.

[Initial B]

^ And just think how many tickets they could sell for an MLS cup final with those bleachers in place...

[OgtheDim]

^ And just think how many tickets they could sell for an MLS cup final with those bleachers in place...

They'll be in place for any Eastern final round too. Would be interesting to see if they could sell out 40K for a playoff game.

I'd just like to start with one home playoff game this season - just one.

[glaze]

I still think they'd have the Winter Classic game at the Dome.
More seats, more luxury boxes, more area for media, better transit infrastructure, the list goes on.
They'd have events at BMO, a legends game, marlies game, OHL game, probably a women's game and so on.
But there would be too much money left on the table to host the Leafs game there.
It would be similar to what the Red Wings did with Comerica Park and the Big House.

Our field is going to be in rough shape after the grey cup, as I imagine teams will be allowed to practice on it, the grass wont exactly grow back quickly after being torn up in November, the field will be painted with tonnes of logos, etc. So I'm not too concerned with the impact of a winter classic....... as long as it isnt an excuse to go back to FieldTurf for 2017.

[greatwhitenorf]

If leaving in extra seats after a Grey Cup creates efficiencies in staging an outdoor NHL game, how long before the city and MLSE start looking at other winter events? There was a snowboarding event at Fenway Park in Boston this weekend that drew about 25 thousand or so over two days. Has to have some stadium operators wondering about options for their facilities.




And, yes, there would obviously be greater logistical challenges, but putting on a Crashed Ice event in a stadium would be a hoot.

[ensco]

I still think they'd have the Winter Classic game at the Dome.
More seats, more luxury boxes, more area for media, better transit infrastructure, the list goes on.
They'd have events at BMO, a legends game, marlies game, OHL game, probably a women's game and so on.
But there would be too much money left on the table to host the Leafs game there.
It would be similar to what the Red Wings did with Comerica Park and the Big House.

Our field is going to be in rough shape after the grey cup, as I imagine teams will be allowed to practice on it, the grass wont exactly grow back quickly after being torn up in November, the field will be painted with tonnes of logos, etc. So I'm not too concerned with the impact of a winter classic....... as long as it isnt an excuse to go back to FieldTurf for 2017.

This has been discussed repeatedly. It cannot be done. The roof can't be opened, or left open.

[greatwhitenorf]

So how many outdoor games do people think the Leafs will play each season at BMO eventually? Moreover, how many more temporary seats can be added to BMO for these games, are we talking another 10 000 temporary seats, if so where would they all go? Can you put 5000 temporary seats in the north and 5000 seats in the south temporarily for these outdoor games? If that's the case then that's an extra 20 000 seats for any outdoor games of revenue just on ticket sales alone MLSE gets that they don't get at the ACC for hockey, that's a lot of extra cash for MLSE by playing outdoor hockey at BMO!

I do business with smart people in the commercial and promotional side of sports who say the Leafs are hoping for an annual outdoor game. So many NHL rivals to work with, including all Canadian teams, original six clubs, Buffalo, Ottawa. The buildings around the stadium would host all sorts of related activity. And there would be alumni, Marlies and OHL games involved. Hockey Hall of Fame displays, merchandise booths, interactive displays in the Direct Energy Centre. Hotel X as an official hotel on site. It would take up three days or more easily.

MLSE see this as a huge marketing opportunity to reach out to new Canadians in Toronto and bring them into hockey through a huge, rambling fun event.

Look! Chinese Canadians cheesesniping! Sikhs stickhandling! A dirty dangler from Damascus! Guatemalan goons! Peruvian puck daddies!

[Still Kicking]

MLSE see this as a huge marketing opportunity to reach out to new Canadians in Toronto and bring them into hockey through a huge, rambling fun event.
Look! Chinese Canadians cheesesniping! Sikhs stickhandling! A dirty dangler from Damascus! Guatemalan goons! Peruvian puck daddies!

From my experience, teaching for years in Toronto and always in neighbourhoods of new Canadians, MLSE hockey marketing is too little too late. Hockey is doomed in the GTA. The smartest thing Tim Leiweke ever said was that the Raptors would be bigger than the Leafs in 10 years. The hockey experience wrapped itself too tightly into the world of violence and aggression.
No doubt the outdoor hockey will sell big and make money and Leafs will retain some segment on this market....but kids today (imho and experience) and more importantly moms today don't see the attraction of paying thousands for full body protection and buying into a sport where players are hit with sticks and punched in faces.