Argos to BMO decision - Wednesday, May 20th

[ensco]

Only horse racing and boxing have declined in absolute terms. No team sport has ever really declined. Some have stalled, like MLB or the CFL, but the sports pie just keeps growing overall.

The interesting question is, what happens when the sports market itself starts declining someday? I'd guess, right now, that the CFL has a higher likelihood of surviving that than MLS does. Just based on habit and history. A lot of MLS teams have highly leveraged owners (including TFC/MLSE) who can't really sustain big downturns.

The Argos are a weird special case. It's a seriously tarnished brand in this market, very analagous to TFC in 2012. They need a Giovinco.

[greatwhitenorf]

Hombre, just take a drive past Lamoureux, McLevin, Eglinton Flats, Sunnybrook, Esther Shiner or Ashtonbee among many other soccer pitch complexes any weeknight.

That will tell you the first thing you need to know about soccer's future in Toronto.

Now, try booking space to practice with your team if you're a coach - at any level - on those nights. Good luck, Charlie. That will tell you even more. The city can't cope with demand.

If there is one sport remotely rivalling soccer for field space in the summer, it's a resurgent baseball, as the Jays have recently inspired a serious upturn in registrations.

Unless the NFL comes to Toronto, under no circumstance will we ever see recreational gridiron football played on this scale in our lifetimes in the Toronto area. Even cricket has a bigger upside than Canadian football.

[ensco]

Hombre, just take a drive past Lamoureux, McLevin, Eglinton Flats, Sunnybrook, Esther Shiner or Ashtonbee among many other soccer pitch complexes any weeknight.

That will tell you the first thing you need to know about soccer's future in Toronto.

Now, try booking space to practice with your team if you're a coach - at any level - on those nights. Good luck, Charlie. That will tell you even more. The city can't cope with demand.

If there is one sport remotely rivalling soccer for field space in the summer, it's a resurgent baseball, as the Jays have recently inspired a serious upturn in registrations.

Unless the NFL comes to Toronto, under no circumstance will we ever see recreational gridiron football played on this scale in our lifetimes in the Toronto area. Even cricket has a bigger upside than Canadian football.

CFL Football may decline but I would not assume that share of the market is available to MLS. I am kind of amazed that there are 200 pages arguing about that, because the premise seems wildly wrong, to me.

I grew up in the 1970s, and believe me, soccer was by far the biggest organized participation sport then too. It was maybe even bigger than it is now, because there was not much organized baseball or basketball (frankly, the disappearance of good old unsupervised neighbourhood road hockey, which was number one back then, is a great loss, but that is for another day)

MLS is capped out as a fringe offering because it is by its very definition not competing (because of where the cap is set). People are not idiots. NHL teams in Arizona and Tennessee have payrolls that are 20x MLS payrolls. Don Garber can wax all he wants about the future glories of MLS, but they are designed to be third rate, not much better than Arena Football, in the bigger scheme of things.

Put a serious EPL team in Toronto with a $200M payroll and it would draw 80,000, and we'd all be talking about the revolution. But the soccer pitches are really not telling you much.

The NBA are the likeliest entity to pick up share from others. They are actually competing. That is the big time, and it's got some history here now. The number of Canadians "participating" (in the sense that is more meaningful to this argument, which is making it to the top level) is skyrocketing. The Raps TV ratings were unreal last year.

[Pookie]

What kind of tradition? Financial disasters? Relentless cheating of fans? If you're a CFL fan, that's par for the course. Since the mid-'80s, the CFL teams in Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa have each gone bankrupt twice. Were it not for the benevolence of Bob Young, Hamilton would surely have joined them at least once. Were it not for the enforced desperation of TSN, the whole lot of them would be belly up now.

Wow. What a tradition to call upon. Did you forget - were you even remotely aware - that it was there?

It makes an understatement out of calling the Argos a Perpetual Pityfuck.

Is the rant over?

Did you actually want to tackle anything related to the ground share and historical Argos Clause (questions back a page) or are you just going to highlight that the CFL has expanded and contracted over 100 years and assert that no one from Southern Ontario, including any of the 902,000 who watched Hamilton and Toronto 5 days ago, actually likes the sport?

[Pookie]

Hombre, just take a drive past Lamoureux, McLevin, Eglinton Flats, Sunnybrook, Esther Shiner or Ashtonbee among many other soccer pitch complexes any weeknight.

That will tell you the first thing you need to know about soccer's future in Toronto.

Now, try booking space to practice with your team if you're a coach - at any level - on those nights. Good luck, Charlie. That will tell you even more. The city can't cope with demand.

If there is one sport remotely rivalling soccer for field space in the summer, it's a resurgent baseball, as the Jays have recently inspired a serious upturn in registrations.

Unless the NFL comes to Toronto, under no circumstance will we ever see recreational gridiron football played on this scale in our lifetimes in the Toronto area. Even cricket has a bigger upside than Canadian football.

There is no debate here. Stats Canada backs up the fact that soccer participation is the highest of any sport, even hockey.

I would wonder though, when have we ever saw recreational gridiron football played in cities? I'm in my 40s. My first exposure to football was when I tried out and made the high school team. The coach had to explain the positions. There was no "peewee" football back then.

That question aside, the challenge for soccer is to make the jump between participation and legitimate top level sport in North America. For many, soccer is something they put their kids in during the summer. Snack rotation is more important than development.

We should likely find agreement on the fact that the structure in Canada from the CSA to our own OSA has a bush league feel to it. I'm not talking about poor results perennially on the national level (men's and maybe women's in the future with more participation).

I'm talking about a clear and serious development path to rival or even mirror hockey (AE to AAA, clear CHL vs NCAA benefits and rules). Something the public can understand and pursue if they choose.

What's the best path to the MLS? TFCA? Do I need to move to Mississauga to get noticed? What's the best path to a free college education? Club? Private Academy? Spend money going to Showcases? What if we have a talented youngster and want to think about the deGuzman path? Private Academy that "tours" Europe? What if I want to play for a Provincial Team, do I have to be in the OPDL?

From the OSA's battles with Private academies to its Ontario Player Development League that saw franchises fold in the first year and no teams in the west to questions around TFC Academy and its recruitment program, it's been a bush league approach. And that's just recent history in this club centric system.

Ensco is completely on point IMO.

[jimiv]

Well, the pictures are of MLS teams dealing with pointy ball lines, I don't see the difference as the CFL basically uses the same markings that the NFL does.
However I'll try and find some Vancouver stuff for you.

The truly sad part of those images is that it was MLS playoff games!

[Fort York Redcoat]

References that this whole thread concerns one aspect reveals one hasn't visited very frequently. I understand that.

The multiple references that all the Argos need is a Giovinco is startling from those that have followed, been alive so long. the comparison is reaching.

Not only has it happened on their comparable level with multiple heisman trophy winners through the years - its not actually that comparable because of that precedence. They've done it before, could do it again, know how but can't afford it and it's not nearly as difficult to achieve as finding a diamond in the rough with the entire worlds footy leagues to choose from.

[Fort York Redcoat]

There is no debate here. Stats Canada backs up the fact that soccer participation is the highest of any sport, even hockey.

I would wonder though, when have we ever saw recreational gridiron football played in cities? I'm in my 40s. My first exposure to football was when I tried out and made the high school team. The coach had to explain the positions. There was no "peewee" football back then.

That question aside, the challenge for soccer is to make the jump between participation and legitimate top level sport in North America. For many, soccer is something they put their kids in during the summer. Snack rotation is more important than development.

We should likely find agreement on the fact that the structure in Canada from the CSA to our own OSA has a bush league feel to it. I'm not talking about poor results perennially on the national level (men's and maybe women's in the future with more participation).

I'm talking about a clear and serious development path to rival or even mirror hockey (AE to AAA, clear CHL vs NCAA benefits and rules). Something the public can understand and pursue if they choose.

What's the best path to the MLS? TFCA? Do I need to move to Mississauga to get noticed? What's the best path to a free college education? Club? Private Academy? Spend money going to Showcases? What if we have a talented youngster and want to think about the deGuzman path? Private Academy that "tours" Europe? What if I want to play for a Provincial Team, do I have to be in the OPDL?

From the OSA's battles with Private academies to its Ontario Player Development League that saw franchises fold in the first year and no teams in the west to questions around TFC Academy and its recruitment program, it's been a bush league approach. And that's just recent history in this club centric system.

Ensco is completely on point IMO.

I know the hockey path existed before me. Probably even before you but it didn't always exist, correct? There was a time, long ago one could compare in at least years of existence with the age of this new path for kids playing footy?

I have a friend who took the Academy to NCAA path who is now in the USL. His path was not clear and I had convos about that. But I made sure he knew he was trailblazing a path that kids could follow. Fellow players down the road that would have it easier.

The change isn't over here in Canada but its getting easier.

-Also- The Argos play at BMO tomorrow. Anyone going feel free to update us on the state of the pitch.

[SoccMan2]

The thing that is difficult for people who are Argo fans to accept is that TFC might actually be more relevant than the Argos in the Toronto area at least at this moment of our lifetime. Moreover, this is easy to detect by reading a few of the comments even on this forum and other forums, for some it's hard to swallow this fact. BMO Field if I recall correctly was turning a profit before expansion and before the ground share when it was mainly a TFC and soccer only facility. Imagine that a stadium in Canada used mainly to house a pro soccer team in a league that is not even the 10th. best league in the world turning a profit. A stadium that did not have other events like concerts or monster truck competitions, yes a few Rugby games but the majority of times used for housing a pro soccer team and not much else turning a profit. A stadium housing a pro soccer team that was not getting much mainstream media attention turning a profit in Canada of all places. I could predict that without the Argos BMO Field would again be able to turn a profit in the future and with expanding as well. However, without the Argos I think we could have gotten a better looking stadium, even more intimate and with an expanded north end stand instead of that crazy big east side upper deck, yes we still would have gotten a east side upper deck but it would not have been so big with so many seats because the other seats could have been put in an expanded proper north end stand. However, because of the Argos we have a less intimate stadium and no real north end stand and that crazy too big upper east stand. I get it it's a government stadium and with the Argo clause they had no choice I guess but to get the Argos in there. However, my point in the end is that BMO Field would have been profitable even with expansion without the Argos, because it already was without them, and we would have gotten a better more intimate stadium.

[OgtheDim]

The thing that is difficult for people who are Argo fans to accept is that TFC might actually be more relevant than the Argos in the Toronto area at least at this moment of our lifetime. ....

That is the argument in a nutshell.

[ensco]

That is the argument in a nutshell.

How can this even be a debate given the TV ratings?

[Pookie]

"BMO turning a profit"

I suppose then that we are saying that given a $70m gift in the form of taxpayer money that isn't to be paid back, folks at BMO Field managed to price their hotdogs and beer such that game day operating expenses were covered.

That's impressive, I guess. I think the OSA manages to do that in Woodbridge. Our kids do it with bake sales at garage sales too. Gift them the ingredients and they can make a profit selling muffins and coffee.

As for what BMO would have been without Grey Cups and Outdoor Hockey, is there any evidence anywhere that Tim L was considering asking for more corporate welfare just to update BMO? I'm not talking about repairing MLSE's construction and concrete. I'm talking about a roof. Would we get a roof without Grey Cups and Outdoor hockey?

That question is interesting but even in the end irrelevant since the Argos Clause was always hovering over this agreement. But still, any evidence anywhere? (I have no idea personally)

[Fort York Redcoat]

What we in TFC land need are more people that care just enough about it to change the channel to have our game in the background. As long as it doesn't make it tough to get to games.

It's just time. If the Argos can do it by simply existing for so long its not that big a challenge. Just don't burn out your support too fast.

[Rudi]

How can this even be a debate given the TV ratings?

How can this even be a debate given in-stadium attendance?

Perhaps debates are more nuanced than a single, repeatable point.

[ensco]

How can this even be a debate given in-stadium attendance?

Perhaps debates are more nuanced than a single, repeatable point.

What nuance? "Relevance in the Toronto area" is not attendance, sorry, full stop. By that standard, monster truck rallies are as important as Leaf games.

[Pookie]

And if it is just attendance, what's the difference these days? 4.000 to 12,000 range?

That's the measure?

Best be careful as when we get to concacaf games, you might find the argos outdraw us.

[Fort York Redcoat]

And if it is just attendance, what's the difference these days? 4.000 to 12,000 range?

That's the measure?

Best be careful as when we get to concacaf games, you might find the argos outdraw us.

But no one said its just attendance.

Someone is trying to say tv ratings is everything relevant to everyone?

fun

[backbeat]

What nuance? "Relevance in the Toronto area" is not attendance, sorry, full stop. By that standard, monster truck rallies are as important as Leaf games.

monster truck rallies don't happen once or twice a week in the same venue like hockey or soccer - can't compare attendance

[Pookie]

^ He's suggesting that ratings are an important variable

Assuming similar channels/access, probably a very important variable in assessing how "relevant" a sport is

Eg. If 105,000 people tuned in to see one sport and 902,000 tuned in to see another sport, on the same channel, which sport is most likely to be the most popular with the market?

If you were an advertiser, wanting to reach the biggest audience, is it really a tough decision as to where you would put your budget?

[Fort York Redcoat]

^ He's suggesting that ratings are an important variable

Assuming similar channels/access, probably a very important variable in assessing how "relevant" a sport is

Agreed.

Now how attractive it is to sponsors vs sports fans can be agreed upon hopefully. The 2 teams seem the most extreme contrasts in this.

[Pookie]

Agreed.

Now how attractive it is to sponsors vs sports fans can be agreed upon hopefully. The 2 teams seem the most extreme contrasts in this.

They aren't that different. Leagues fighting for relevance with budget restrictions against the perception of minor league importance in the mainstream media. Leagues with Canadian quotas trying to make space available for our youth and teams with passionate fan bases, however small they may be when compared against the mainstream MLB/NHL/NBA teams of the world.

The difference is that somehow, some fans of one feel jealous if the other does, or is perceived to do, better (goes both ways).

[ensco]

monster truck rallies don't happen once or twice a week in the same venue like hockey or soccer - can't compare attendance

Fine. The Toronto Rock then. For years they used to draw 17K or whatever. What did that mean?

There are an absolute ton of big euro teams that TFC outdraw on average attendance. What does that mean? Lazio still gets 10x the TV ratings of TFC, adjusted for market.

[Red CB Toronto]

Fine. The Toronto Rock then. For years they used to draw 17K or whatever. What did that mean?

There are an absolute ton of big euro teams that TFC outdraw on average attendance. What does that mean? Lazio still gets 10x the TV ratings of TFC, adjusted for market.

Completely agree, the Rock even when they packed Maple Leaf Gardens, they really were not all that relevant overall within the city and beyond. It was never a part of the sports conversation the city had. It was simply a cheap night out for most, catering to families and that blue collar beer drinking crowd.

In in some ways I am not even really sure how relevant TFC was during the first few seasons.

[bones]

I must have missed a stat where someone broke down the ~900k watching the labour day game into "GTA" and all the rest. Can someone please update me on that GTA (aka, closest we got to Argo fan specifically???) What's the average Agro TV ratings to date compared to other years?

I would like to point out something. Pookie pointed out on a few occasions that you can't make generalisations about how the pitch will be when it rains because we had a relatively dry season so far and the pitch has held up. We can only go on the info we have to date. Not a lot liked that but it is what it is. Similarly, the Argos are drawing how much at the gate in a brand new (to them) season so far? Is that better or worse than last year or the year before? IF those numbers have gone up then we're pissing into the wind about Argo support dwindling, if it's the other way, then that's the proof according to the 'it is what it is" style of thinking. I just want to go on the facts we have to date not how much they may sell for the rest of the season or how many Cup tickets they will try to sell right?

[Prof]

There is no debate here. Stats Canada backs up the fact that soccer participation is the highest of any sport, even hockey.

I would wonder though, when have we ever saw recreational gridiron football played in cities? I'm in my 40s. My first exposure to football was when I tried out and made the high school team. The coach had to explain the positions. There was no "peewee" football back then.

That question aside, the challenge for soccer is to make the jump between participation and legitimate top level sport in North America. For many, soccer is something they put their kids in during the summer. Snack rotation is more important than development.

We should likely find agreement on the fact that the structure in Canada from the CSA to our own OSA has a bush league feel to it. I'm not talking about poor results perennially on the national level (men's and maybe women's in the future with more participation).

I'm talking about a clear and serious development path to rival or even mirror hockey (AE to AAA, clear CHL vs NCAA benefits and rules). Something the public can understand and pursue if they choose.

What's the best path to the MLS? TFCA? Do I need to move to Mississauga to get noticed? What's the best path to a free college education? Club? Private Academy? Spend money going to Showcases? What if we have a talented youngster and want to think about the deGuzman path? Private Academy that "tours" Europe? What if I want to play for a Provincial Team, do I have to be in the OPDL?

From the OSA's battles with Private academies to its Ontario Player Development League that saw franchises fold in the first year and no teams in the west to questions around TFC Academy and its recruitment program, it's been a bush league approach. And that's just recent history in this club centric system.

Ensco is completely on point IMO.

As a high school soccer coach I can tell you that if you had never played the sport prior to trying out there would be no way in hell that you would make the team But you said that your first introduction to grid iron football was when you made your high school team. That says it all, no skill required. Appreciate the soccer team and league that we have and don't compare to other leagues.

[Pookie]

As a high school soccer coach I can tell you that if you had never played the sport prior to trying out there would be no way in hell that you would make the team But you said that your first introduction to grid iron football was when you made your high school team. That says it all, no skill required. Appreciate the soccer team and league that we have and don't compare to other leagues.

Having watched my son's high school soccer team, I would debate you on that point. And the majority of his teammates on his football team that are starters (which he now plays after being in the OPDL and opted for football over soccer), also play for a Regional team. It has progressed from when I played. (In my day, I was fast and strong so made it based on that, defensive halfback and ran back kicks)

Sad thing prof, as someone connected with the SC in a city of well over 6 figures, you'd be surprised at how many coaches were accepted because they simply passed the records check. I lobbied unsuccessfully to have basic certification as a requirement for our house league coaches. I hope that has changed now but that was less than 5 years ago.

That says it a lot too. Our club was not in the minority.

[OgtheDim]

As a high school soccer coach I can tell you that if you had never played the sport prior to trying out there would be no way in hell that you would make the team But you said that your first introduction to grid iron football was when you made your high school team. That says it all, no skill required. Appreciate the soccer team and league that we have and don't compare to other leagues.

Which is why Canadians are not all that good at the game most of the time.

In the US, kids start playing gridiron at age 5. Although much of the football is based on local area high schools, there are people who are so good that prep schools grab them.

Gridiron is a SERIOUSLY skill requiring sport.

[mr k]

CFL doesn't need a Giovinco in the sense of a big time American to come and play. The CFL's search for the holy grail is a Canadian quarterback - preferably more than one.

In a similar vein, getting the MLS to have a national presence in Canada and thereby better ratings is having Canada in the World Cup first and then doing well in later World Cups such as getting out the group. This will get the casual sports fan and Euro snobs at least staying on the channel when they see TFC/Whitecaps/Impact and maybe some of the them will also make it appointment viewing like they do with Premier League today.

[OgtheDim]

On another note, there was a college game at Gillette stadium this afternoon and an NER game tonight.

They manged to scrub clean all the gridiron lines within the penalty area.

[Onyx]

As a high school soccer coach I can tell you that if you had never played the sport prior to trying out there would be no way in hell that you would make the team But you said that your first introduction to grid iron football was when you made your high school team. That says it all, no skill required. Appreciate the soccer team and league that we have and don't compare to other leagues.

there is a massive skill element in soccer (and hockey as well). The best athlete is never the best player (unless there has be years of skill development). A 160lb skinny guy can be the best player in the world.

Football is mainly best athletic ability is the best player. Its all god given in football (and basketball as well).


in soccer (and hockey) were you have best athletes choosing skill development at early age is how you get professional athletes in these sports. Most of these kids are choosing hockey early. If they wait and only find sports in their early teens these super athletes choose basketball or football because its easy to get up to speed, its too late for soccer (or hockey) due to the skill development needed (10,000 hours).