Statistical Look at the impact of player quality

[brad]

If you don't like stats, turn away now

I thought this was an interest read. Attempts to look statistically at the impact improving a team through adding star players vs bringing up the quality at the low end. It does so using player ratings for the MLS. Conclusion is that improving the lower quality players makes the biggest difference. There are a few flaws to the methodology - but for a high level look it's pretty solid.

http://www.brotherlygame.com/2014/2/...-and-the-union

MODS: I didn't know where to stick this. Since it uses MLS data and talks about TFC - I figured here, but move away if it's in the wrong place.

[Detroit_TFC]

In that same vein,

Here is a very good analytical piece looking at what Michael Bradley might do for us

http://theshinguardian.com/2014/02/1...ve-toronto-fc/

[barticusz]

Very interesting analysis. However, all of this is so subject to this guy being able to properly project the castrol index of the players he speaks of. The weakest player for TFC could be Morrow, however his rating was based on his play with the Earthquakes which were struggling. There's a team chemistry component that cannot be accurately predicted.

[Ron Manager]

Very interesting analysis. However, all of this is so subject to this guy being able to properly project the castrol index of the players he speaks of. The weakest player for TFC could be Morrow, however his rating was based on his play with the Earthquakes which were struggling. There's a team chemistry component that cannot be accurately predicted.

That's a strong point. With these types of indicators, they are examining individual performance but not giving credit to the fact that that is hugely affected by team performance. I would suggest we will see an improvement in all our players performance metrics as a result of improved team play.
His point that only two teams had no players below 6.6 on the whoscored metric and that both made the playoffs could be easily more attributable to strong team play, making the individuals look better.

[Pookie]

The conclusion makes intuitive sense.

If there are 11 players on a pitch, an opponent is going to attempt to exploit the weakness.

I would envision that our opponents will press high an attempt to force turnovers in our defensive 3rd. If they can't, they will try to keep the ball wide and pressure any midfielder not named Bradley.

I can't see a park the bus strategy employed as that would put the ball into our strength.

If our weak players can't get it to our attacking third and keep it there, it may be difficult to get results.

[Yohan]

The conclusion makes intuitive sense.

If there are 11 players on a pitch, an opponent is going to attempt to exploit the weakness.

I would envision that our opponents will press high an attempt to force turnovers in our defensive 3rd. If they can't, they will try to keep the ball wide and pressure any midfielder not named Bradley.

I can't see a park the bus strategy employed as that would put the ball into our strength.

If our weak players can't get it to our attacking third and keep it there, it may be difficult to get results.

and why Laba would be awesome to keep. he doesn't lose the ball often under pressure.

opposition will have to be very careful how they pressure, because if they pressure a TFC player and the ball manages to get to Bradley before they can reset, Bradley will find an open TFC player, short or long range pass. having Bradley and his passing makes every MLS team take a step back from playing too much high pressure game

[brad]

The conclusion makes intuitive sense.

If there are 11 players on a pitch, an opponent is going to attempt to exploit the weakness.

I would envision that our opponents will press high an attempt to force turnovers in our defensive 3rd. If they can't, they will try to keep the ball wide and pressure any midfielder not named Bradley.

I can't see a park the bus strategy employed as that would put the ball into our strength.

If our weak players can't get it to our attacking third and keep it there, it may be difficult to get results.

Agreed. The conclusion also mirrors what many of have seen/observed. Add DP's to an average to bad team, and you still have an average to bad team. The best teams are the ones that get the better quality domestics and lower priced players.

The other thing I like about this team tactically - agree that teams can't sit deep - but they also can't push that far up. If they do - Defoe will get in behind and Bradley will find him. Game over. Hopefully Gilberto is also able to do as much.

This is going to have a big effect defensively for us as well. Last year we had no offensive threat and teams new it. They compressed te field against us and were able to commit more players forward knowing we would not be able to exploit them. I really, really hope teams try that against is this year - it would be suicide.

After writing this and thinking it through - I actually think teams might sit further back against us. I don't think we have the player in the midfield to unlock a packed defence (Bradley is a good passer but I don't think he is that creative spark). Defoe had a great shot from distance though, apparanty a Gilberto does as well.

[Pookie]

^ it's fun to think about isn't it?

I was wondering the same after I wrote that first post. One challenge TFC has always had is movement off the ball. Maybe the strategy is let Bradley have it and take away the obvious options. Rely on the others to stand still and simply give it away.

[ensco]

I think opposing teams will press high and hard, at least to start. Our backline looks on paper like the weak link. But if Morrow and Jackson (I'm assuming he will be used as a fullback) play like studs, we could be an elite team.

[notthesun]

I think opposing teams will press high and hard, at least to start. Our backline looks on paper like the weak link. But if Morrow and Jackson (I'm assuming he will be used as a fullback) play like studs, we could be an elite team.

That's a big assumption I think. All signs point to him being used as a wide midfielder (signing Orr, playing in midfield in the first pre-season game).

[ensco]

That's a big assumption I think. All signs point to him being used as a wide midfielder (signing Orr, playing in midfield in the first pre-season game).

I am assuming that Nelsen will conclude he needs wheels back there. Just my guess.