Originally Posted by ensco
Not sure I follow your logic here, what is your reasoning for this assumption.
He's got some more recent game clips up. Watched a few; would suspect a lot of the step-over madness is from his earlier days. In the clip below, which shows his highlights over 90 minutes, he plays in the hole in the middle of a 4-2-3-1. Doesn't attack defenders at all, looks to sit back and pick out runners with very well weighted passes. He'll play on the ball when he has to, but only to shake the defender.
Would be concerned that defenders would consistently plow through the back of the guy and injure him (MLS needs to clamp down on this), but thought he would be that play-making #10 we are all clamoring for. It is interesting that his profile is dramatically different from the other players we've been linked with. He can actually sit in the middle of the park and spray the ball around. That being said, he reminds me a lot of Javier Morales in those game clips, but much better. If we could convince our players to actually move off the ball, it would be pretty amazing to watch someone of this quality suit up for our team.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0nA26-Aijc
http://esporte.uol.com.br/futebol/ul...-7-milhoes.htm
Looks like Gilberto is a Dunne deal. $3m transfer fee.
I don't/wouldn't agree with either move. For reasons of cost, which most here don't care about, but which I do, because misused resources creates their own turmoil.
I don't think they'll sell enough tickets or increase ticket sales enough to recoup even 10% of the cost of players like this. Plus the risk of failure is too high. When you fail, it should cost $5M, not $35M. What happens 5-10 games in, when these guys are receiving service from players making 75K, and they turn out to be only human?
To me, it's like the bank lending you all the money you can borrow against your house. Would you put it all, 100% of it, on one spin at Casino Rama.
Now imagine you can borrow all you want against someone else's house. Maybe you don't think you have much time. Maybe you should put it all on one spin.
That's what TL is doing.
Last edited by ensco; 12-11-2013 at 11:10 AM.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
How does parity work in MLS? Does it mean someday we'll have a winning season?....
I don't think you could be further from the truth - and I think your analysis ignores the moves that have already been made. Other than Osorio, who in the XI right now that will be delivering service is making that kind of money? Between the additions of Jackson and now Gilberto, Laba and Rey, I don't believe service will be nearly the concern that people are making it out to be. If you are worried they won't be receiving the quality of service they are used to where they are leaving, than fine, that's somewhat accurate. But the level of defending is nowhere near where they are coming from. I think the pieces that are coming together are of incredible value thus far.
And to your concerns about failing, and the cost, I think you are completely ignoring the bigger cost here, which is the ongoing failure of this franchise. They need to turn this team around - and at this point I think the stimulus may be $35M, or $50M. It's not the only option, but the franchise desperately needs a shot in the arm. You can take all the little risks you want, but the reward always has a lower ceiling.
@LukeWileman: On Gilberto, it's all done, pending his medical: “@m_lefave15: @LukeWileman does this mean the contract is signed?”
@JohnMolinaro: Expect a #TFC announcement on Gilberto by the end of the week, I've been told.
I agree with your sentiments, but Leiweke obviously feels that this franchise needs to make a high risk, high reward type of splash in the transfer market at this time due to the overall perception/state of the franchise.
I think that most hard core supporters would prefer a pragmatic approach if it produced the desired results on the pitch, but the question is, would the casual fan base respond to such an approach if there wasn't a recognizable name or two involved? I don't know the answer.
Leiweke is banking on star power to generate interest in this team again going into next season. Personally, I'm fine with that approach, as long as Bez is diligent and prudent in terms of how he builds the rest of the team around the targeted DP signings. I think he is off to a good start in that regard.
Last edited by ManUtd4ever; 12-11-2013 at 11:27 AM.
This team will still be dominated by guys making less than 150K, no matter what. Every MLS team is built that way.
This team has always spent in the upper echelon on players. Fat lot of good it's done. Spending $35M on one player is just switching from mixed drinks to heroin. It's the same basic failed idea.
Imagine spending $10M a year on a proper scouting budget: 20-30 people, who know what they are doing, in multiple geographies.
Imagine what the returns on that would be.
Bringing in Defoe/Forlan is the ultimate short-term move.
Last edited by ensco; 12-11-2013 at 11:17 AM.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
Every MLS team is dominated by guys making $150-$200K. Picking the right players in those spots is what makes you successful. Just look at the numbers of some of the players who played in the final. Compare Wingert to Eckersley and you see why we overspend on the wrong areas and ruin our salary model, if we ever even had one in place. Scouting all over won't change the fact that you only have so many international spots on your roster and having someone with the knowledge to find decent domestics at the right price is what makes the difference. I say Tim B is just that as he was the MLS contract guy previously.
And Forlan would be a short term move. One year or two. Dafoe is 31 and one without a lot of recent mileage on him either. With him 3-4 quality years isn't out of the question and that is not a short term move.
I think this regime is / will be investing in a scouting program, but that's more behind the scenes, and more long term. If TFC can spend money on a big name DP, like Gila, and even play 1 playoff game at home, that'll pay for his approximate yearly salary. Keeping these guys at 35-50 million for 4 years while they build a strong scouting system isn't a bad move, AT THE MOMENT. I mean, what other choices do they have?
But I agree with you ensco... IF they had other options, they should make this move. I fear, however, that they can't do anything else in order to keep interest from fans, media, and SSHs
It's fair to point out that this move seems to run counter to much of the noise Leiweke has made and that it's the type of signing Payne *talked about*.
The difference is this seems to be happening. You or I can say that we should look to Brazil because they have good players. Finding them and signing them is the hard part and a consistent failure to do that for six years is why Mr Payne is out of work.
A consistent failure to do it by Johnston, Winter and Mariner before him is why TFC is a punch line.
We don't know if this will work. TFC's scouting networks are still terrible so there is a chance we got the wrong guy again. However, the simple fact they are approaching the off-season with urgency gives me hope things have finally changed.
Well, I'll cheer for whoever they sign, but I think it's a low probability swing for the fences.
If it doesn't work, what next?
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
There is a legitimate question I believe ensco raised earlier (correct my if I'm wrong) whether Defoe is the $35-50 million guy who will rescue the franchise. I love Defoe, and will be one of the first to buy his TFC shirt. But I follow Spurs pretty closely (in addition to Norwich). Probably followers of the Premier League will be mildly curious and will come. Beyond that, I'm not sure he has a lot of reach. I'd like to think if he comes and scores bags of goals, that will be enough to draw the mini-van crowd (and I do think he'll score). But I don't really know if it is. He's not a Beckham, that's for sure. But another Beckham isn't possible right now.
He had 11 years of history to evaluate, including the last six in DC where he turned the original dynasty of MLS 1.0 into a consistent bottom feeder.
Anyway, he's gone. If he's as good as some believe he'll be hired elsewhere soon enough, right?
What would you consider as doesn't work? If he scores 10 goals and put 3k people in the stands consistently, is that border line?
Doubt that is a test of his market value. He's probably being paid by MLSE for years to do nothing. Why should he work?
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
People are too concerned about a player selling X amount of tickets. A lot of people who attend matches have no idea who anyone in world football is minus the HUGE names like Beckham, Messi, Ronaldo, etc. and I know because I go to games with a crew of them. Big names to please those types aren't happening but do you know what does make people buy tickets? Winning. Especially so for the casual followers of our team and they outnumber the hardcore supporters by a huge margin. You win, they come. Pretty simple.
That would be failure.
Earnshaw or Braun probably gets you 10 goals a game, if they get the minutes Defoe will get.
3,000 people is maybe $100K a game in revenue. Less than $2M over the course of the first year, less than that thereafter. With the halo wearing off fast in a scenario like that. By year two, no one would come to see Defoe.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
Let's hope so. The nature of things however, is that we will never be able to know too much about it.
The good news is, for the time being at least, the club has quit pulling things out of thin air about what they are doing behind the scenes (when they aren't actually doing it). The club academy program would be a classic example.
No doubt. But there are also people who will go just because of the players
For example, my dad, has been to a handful of games over the years. IF we had a player like Gilardino, he would definitely go to more, at least for some time - people that don't follow TFC but watch Euro footy feel a connection when those names come here. The same reason why NYRB games are always full - it's not cuz NY is a good team, but because HandBall master plays there. I'm not saying you'll get the missing 5-8k that are always missing from a sell out, but I truly believe they'll be able to add 2-3k consistently.
I'd consider scoring and us winning working. If we pull something like LA did under TL's watch (from crap to more crap to consistently great for a few years and continuing) then the buzz is back and the seats are filled. More importantly advertising would be up (with winning) so Rogers and Bell could make more money off TV matches and in match adverts. It's a huge trickle down effect and it starts with winning. /end
You guys know seat sales are only a small part of the bucks to be made right? We have in the high teens to low 20's in matches per year. How much can that generate even with a sell out? That is thinking very small. Think big picture and then you'll get it and see why the investment numbers being mentioned by TL. He is a guy who I think knows business and how to make money.
Last edited by Ultra & Proud; 12-11-2013 at 11:48 AM.
I agree Defoe isn't big name superstar nor he's worth that kind of money. I think TFC shouldn't commit 3 years over $50 million on Defoe especially in few years you can find better players.
Also, Payne plan was to sign bunch of players from Argentina. He wasn't pro-South American what some people here are making him out to be. Payne was fired for not closing on Forlan deal and not able to sign international players outside of Argentina.
So are you looking mainly at goals scored? Or do you place as high of a relevance on shirts sold? Because for high goal numbers? They could Easily find cheaper options (Gilberto being one), but I'm sure you know that that isn't the only factor here.
This is true, but how much bump would TFC get from TV ratings? Reality is that if TFC patiently waits and sign superstar player, then they can make more money than they would with someone like Defoe. Locking down 3 years with $50 million on Defoe isn't exactly great and bit waste of resource.
I'll disagree with the second part. Maybe somebody can / is allowed to confirm this, but I believe Payne was fired for a number of things, one of which was going after Forlan in the first place.
Lets get back to the talk about raiding teams who are struggling at the cap and need to unload.
NY Red Bulls have come out and admitted they are struggling, while also making it pretty well known they want a legit #10, kind of Timbers esk.
Now maybe its just me, but I think that the Red Bulls are crap on paper. Not many pieces I like. Dax Mccarty is a stud tho just entering his prime...(if only we had Silva still kicking around to add into a trade).
But yeah, I would do anything to get my hands on Dax. Think you could pry him out of NY?
TFC has always shown interest signing Forlan (based on history). Tim Lewieke wanted to make big splash in summer time, but Payne couldn't close the deal which lead to him being fired in the end. Sure, there was other reasons why Payne was gone, but biggest reason was Payne inability to sign bigger name players.
But yeah. Defoe doesn't really have a following and is in no way shape or form a superstar that will bring in more business based on the player's name.
Im sorry but no. Gilardino is a bigger name.
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