$3.0-3.3 Million: Slow and Steady
$3.4-3.6 Million: Significant Increase
$3.7-4.0 Million: Most Likely Scenario?
$4.1-5.0 Million: Best Case Scenario?
$5.1-7.0 Million: Double or Nothing...
$7.1-10.0 Million: Dare to Dream!
<$10 Million: Playing with the Big Boys!
No Salary Cap: MLS is the new EPL!!
This is key. Convincing players that soccer is a viable career option is not an easy task given the low salaries and EXTREMELY restrictive roster rules that treat Canadians as Internationals under MLS rules.Originally Posted by Haddy
If Morgan gets released by TFC, what are his options? Probably the same as players like Stinson, Lindsay, Makubaya... etc... etc... Given that, what's the incentive for a Canadian player that is of MLS potential quality to make a commitment to the sport?
^Hey, nice to see you, whatever happened to you?
Always great to see people who made a big contribution here return.
Last edited by ensco; 10-29-2013 at 04:51 PM.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
Steve Nicol was talking to the BBC the other day about his view that MLS talent is becoming badly diluted.
Then I was doing some research on a player in Africa who no one outside the continent has signed yet at 20, Mbwana Samatta. He's a real talent, great speed, great eye for goal, six goals in 17 internationals for Tanzania, six goals in six games at the African cup.
Turns out his club TP Mazembe in the DR of Congo has a budget of over $5 million. Admittedly, it's an exception on the continent, owned by a fanatical rich guy who is signing up all the best talent on the continent. But what it means is that he probably knows Samatta's potential transfer value is in the $500K to $1M range, at least.
So not only can we not afford a player who should, in economic terms, be a bargain, but the average MLS team has a budget being dwarfed by a club in an impoverished third-world nation.
To me, the best route to Canadian development would be to have a consortium of potential Canadian owners approach MLS about starting a Canadian pro-league, with Canadian roster restrictions guaranteeing a handful of slots in each team's starting 11 are Canadian, say four or five players.
This idea could work for a few reasons:
1. MLS badly needs another USSF-recognized Div. 2 league in North America, for affiliation and loan development. Its fractured relationship with the gong show that is the NASL is going to get worse, not better, which is why more MLS players are technically going now to a league (USLPro) that is Div 3.
2. Canada badly needs a domestic league for development.
3. in Canada, a div 2 ussf league would be a div 1 CSA league. By having six or seven players on each starting roster that are "best available" under a cap instead of using mostly Canadians, we can improve on-field quality to something similar to MLS, generate more interest among potential fans nationally which will lead to increased gates, but still give Canadian youth and loanees from MLS somewhere to go to improve.
4. The enormous financial support that could be generated by official affiliations with MLS clubs would make financing on the Canadian end much easier to handle and make it easier to convince investors to come in. This in turn could help generate the government and business partner relationships need to renovate some venues and create others; we've seen from the "temp stadium" situation in Vancouver how effective a cheap erect-a-set stadium can be in bringing fans close and creating the right atmosphere.
5. By working with MLS on adopting some of its "best practices" the league would have a more professional face immediately than anything the clowns at NASL have ever managed. Visibility and credibility are hugely tied these days thanks to websites.
6. I know a couple of media companies that have had great success giving away their core product in exchange for ad resale time; the league could adopt a similar approach with respect to Canadian TV, giving them a professional-level feed each week run and paid for by the league (it really is NOT that prohibitive to run an in house team) in exchange for a way to recoup the cost via on air time.
Anyway, I still think that a Canadian league could work, and maybe this is a route. It would give these types of players a route to keep improving if their MLS career has stalled or is tanking, help Canadian talent improve massively overall. The biggest stumbling block is not travel cost, as people think, as there are ways to mitigate that issue; it's the lack of infrastructure appropriate to the "gameday experience", the close-to-the-field, beer drinking, song-singing party that leads people in Seattle to act like they're in a cult.
Good to see you around, by the way.
Well that's an exception to the rule though, I think most MLS owners right now would rather make money then increase the budget.
Mbwana Samatta sounds like the prototypical young player who ends up somewhere in Holland, probably turns out to be fantastic too.
Well, I'd like to see a Canadian league, too, and I think it's possible that it could rival the TV ratings for the CFL, but there's zero chance Canadian investors would back it. Unless it was like the tax write-off days of movie investment but that doesn't happen anymore.
It's a very tough sell. At least in the US they have the NCAA for a model of the beer drinking, song-singing. We don't even have that.
Bit of a nebulous term, though, "make money." In the U.S. most MLS franchises are subsidiaries or corporate affiliates of larger companies, and under U.S. tax law writing one down against the other is very common. If anyone believes LA only made 2.4M in profit the first year of beckham, a year in which they claim to have sold 250,000 shirts worldwide, they're kidding themselves.
On paper, I doubt most MLS clubs will EVER make much money if their owners can avoid it.
Really? Even if they were partnered or backed by AIG, MLSE? The difficulty in getting Canadians involved could be offset somewhat by having the kind of support that means most of the risk outlay is financed anyway.
Really. It's just not in the Canadian DNA. If it were it would have happened by now. If Toronto were an American city it would have three NHL teams.
Drawers of water, hewers of wood.....
I'd imagine that everyone agrees on the need to increase the salary cap but by what means may be the sticking point. The league is probably going to make a lot of promises in the broadcast negotiations (ie the playing product is going to improve by leaps and bounds in the near future, so give us more money). The broadcasters are going to want to know that rosters will improve and that means salary cap increase commitments to seal the deal.
I think at some point management of allocation is going to be so cumbersome the league will switch to a soft cap and tax approach, with a max hard cap on the high end. This is the only way most teams in the league will be willing to apply resources toward depth players and that's the only way the overall playing quality in the league will improve.
Last edited by Detroit_TFC; 11-11-2013 at 01:05 PM.
+1. In terms of talent, MLS is optimistically the 20th best league in the world, so any chance of being a 'big time' league by 2015 just ain't gonna happen. Slow and steady is the key - keep all the teams in decent financial shape, make some marquee signings. Something crazy like the US winning the World Cup or a MLS team winning the World Club Cup would accelerate things but aside from those happenings the current model is the way to go.
A Canadian league would have to be created from the ground up.
and I do mean from the ground up totally doing away with the provincial association as they stand.
producing a promotion regulation system up to Division 2, and creating a competitive youth league system (you know one where goals count)
And doing all of this slowly over 10 years, producing Rec leagues and Div 4, 3 and 2 league systems to replace the current ones gradually over time. And allowing the top Div 2 teams to compete in the Canadian Championship.
And teams below Division 2 should be there to develop Canadian players (particularly as they should all be semi-pro at best)
The CSA wouldn't make these changes though, to many hands in the pot that are invested in the current dysfunctional system.
The only chance at really change if for the CSA to try to produce a full Youth system in this country which is possible, and use it as a model for a adult professional system.
Also optimistically you could make a case of MLS being in the top 15 I think it is realistically in the top 20 and is doing exactly what it should be doing.
Last edited by Kaz; 11-12-2013 at 08:54 AM.
Pretty comfortable with what most starters are earning in MLS. It's not perfect, but it's affordable and allows for a decent amount of quality. What I'm not comfortable with is the back-end roster guys who are terribly weak on the field and economically struggling off of it. It doesn't help the league attract talent and it doesn't provide enough depth.
This CBA should be about spots 12-30 not 1-11.
A nationwide CSL, especially multiple divisions with pro/rel, is utterly unrealistic. It has nothing to do with any of CSA's shortcomings. There's not going to be a neat and tidy pyramid exclusive to Canada for at least a number of decades. We're involved with a good range of divisions: Regional Premier>USL PD>CSL>NASL>MLS. It's about making that (mostly the lower 3 divisions) grow and more efficient and effective, starting with some kind of collective youth manifesto and coaching education.
NIce to see you too.
I think you have the basis for something though not sure how affiliation with MLS Clubs under a "best available" option would give Canadian youth a chance to play... though I may be missing something in the details. In my mind, a best available scenario, in a US development league (MLS) with lower teams would still favour US players.
Aside from a league to play in, I do think that a major issue for Canadian development is the fractured youth system itself. The recent and ongoing trials and tribulations within the OSA as they try to implement the Ontario Player Development League (OPDL) for 2014 highlights that there are massive issues that can't be overcome overnight (that's a thread in and of itself).
If you start from the grass roots on up then it isn't. There needs to be a decent system in Canada any decent system. A single National league is not feasible right now, and we don't have the development system. My point which is understandably lost, I should post when doing other things, is that we need to produce a bottom up system in Canada to develop things, and we should start at the youth level.
This won't happen. It's actually more realistic for someone to see profit in a competitive market than it is to expect the NASL_ and the youth associations to become competent. The pro game and the amateur development game are different beasts. The public wants pro quality, not regional loops of amateur third division squads. It will never work, we have too sophisticated of an audience, and the lack of interest from the public as a whole will leave it open to the kind of cut-rate empire building that has typified both the amateur and semi-pro levels for decades.
I spent a fair amount of time talking to both USLpro and NASL people over the last decade and generally got the impression that, while well meaning, they had absolutely no idea of the level of commitment and investment required to produce both pro-quality players and a pro-quality league to watch. Staying the course isn't going to change that.
What I'm suggesting is that MLS would help back it financially and could use the clubs as a loan haven; but that because it's all-Canadian, we could justify having a quota minimum of four or five Canadian starters per team. It would instantly improve on how many are playing at our existing pro clubs, while putting the proper capital and infrastructure behind league development. Right now, the NASL on down is a mish mash of owners, most of whom are in this for a challenge and a lark, but started so far behind the eight ball in terms of knowing how to develop the game within their chosen franchise community that to expect them to ever catch up is just wishful thinking.
We underestimate ourselves in this nation; if Pro lacrosse in Edmonton can get 9,000 a game, A Canadian first division in soccer interspersed with some foreign talent could, too. People judge the possibilities based on the failures of the past, but I know some of the people involved in those failures and it had -- and has -- more to do with the characters involved than the league's own potential. This is a country that put 10,000 a game in Calgary and Edmonton during the height of their NASL involvement.
The real impediment is infrastructure, which is key to creating the gameday environment. My one hope is the Beaches is wrong and people with the resources will be a little visionary, and that might happen yet.
jloome, I'd love to see a Canadian pro league, but we have a problem with geography, economics, other entertainment options, and player development. Look at Honduras, who is going to the World Cup. They have 8 million people living in the area of Southern Ontario - a population density of about 64 persons per square kilometer. They have 10 teams in their Primera Division and it costs comparatively little to transport players around their country to games. By contrast, Canada has 35 million people but the second-largest country on earth - a density of 3.5 people per square kilometer (the same as Libya, who ranks about 40 places higher than us). Australia is our closest comparison in terms of country area, population size, and density. But they don't share a border with the World's current superpower who leaches our teams to their leagues.
Our major population centres are spread around 6 freaking time zones! It requires air-travel to get to these cities, which is an order of magnitude greater cost than busing it between cities. Busing from Toronto to Vancouver simply isn't feasible from a time perspective. The cost of living is also higher which means Canadian players would have to earn a higher wage than Honduran players. They also have a fewer entertainment options and thus more people come to watch games for higher gate revenue. There are so many other entertainment options in the Toronto area that soccer is often way down the list of "things to do this weekend".
But people will point out that Australia has the same issues as us, but their advantage is they have developed a 10-team national league with each team backed up by a youth league made of reserve players. There is also an additional team run by the Australian Institute of Sport to catch amateurs that aren't with one of the big clubs. Canada has nothing like this, and the size of the US market means that any effort started by Canadians will eventually get sucked into the US leagues for the stability. Hence the best Canadian Adult players are in MLS, NASL, USL PRO, or overseas.
I believe that Canada needs to focus on leagues that can operate on a shoestring budget, so airplanes are out of the question. You also need population density to support teams. If the areas around BC's Lower Mainland, Ontario's Golden Horseshoe, Quebec's St Lawrence Valley, and maybe even Alberta's Edmonton-Calgary Corridor we're each to run their own 10-team league with a Canadian Championship involving the top two teams from each region, Canadaian Soccer would be in business. The team also needs to focus on U-23 players (face it, if they're not with another professional team by the time they're 23, they've probably reached their limit as a player). These teams will needs to be sold as they sell the Major Junior Hockey Leagues in Canada for marketing to get bums in the seats - "see Canada's stars of tomorrow, today!". Each of these clubs should have U-18 through to U-12 competitive development teams (where you keep score) and skill development programs from U-11 to U-5 (NOT teams where you keep score).
The problem I see is we simply don't have enough good coaches to run this infrastructure if it ever gets built, and I don't know if we ever will. I do know it can't be left to the mom and pop rec associations - too much politics.
Regional leagues are the answer. Inclusion be damned, if they simply fixed Southern Ontario that alone would be enough to carry the national team program out of the rut.
I'm sure that will sound harsh, but what happens in most provinces as it relates to soccer is inconsequential. They don't have the population, player pool, or facilities to be meaningful. If they want to join the party, great I don't want to leave anyone in the cold. But reality is soccer is very regional and opportunities to develop are always going to be more concentrated in hotbeds. Alpine Canada doesn't worry about how many skiers PEI or farm lands in Saskatchewan produce. CSA shouldn't get caught up looking at far flung places either.
Hit the big markets that matter. Build the pyramid. Get buy-in from all levels amateur through pro. Problem solved. I don't think finding a solution is the issue, the issue is finding someone with the balls to do it and make enemies in the process.
But what if those enemies actively try to sabatoge the league because having this means they would lose power/influence? I'm thinking if what Rollins blogged is true, then there really is no hope for anything of value to be built in Ontario or Quebec. Alberta might also be trouble if they're still bad feelings from the ASA lawsuits. BC might be the only place where such an initiative could go ahead without significant resistance.
It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario. Anywhere you have to drive a large amount of change, the knives will be out ready to undermine you but that doesn't mean it's an impossible task.
How big of an influence will NYCFC in 2015 and I guess even next year have on the cap and stuff. Surely with the backing they have they will be bringing in 3 quality DP's on huge salaries. And I am sure they will push for higher cap % increases for the rest of the squad too. Beckham changed things with regards to salaries and DP's. Will NYCFC along with Manchester City and the Yankees have a similar influence on the current system?
I sure hope so. With the number of articles coming out about the low wages of the MLS players at the low end of the scale a year before the CBA expires, I don't think the MLS can afford not to raise the cap to at least $4 million (a 29% increase) without looking like cheapskates. Although I'm really hoping for a cap of $5 million, that's a 61% increase and might be too big a bump for some of the franchises that are just treading water. I don't think the league would raise the cap by more than 50%, so $4.65 million is probably the max we can expect. The key to how much the cap will go up will be dependent on whatever price MLS can sell the Television rights for. If they can get $50-60 million per year (and dedicated timeslots), then a high cap increase is more likely.
Last edited by Initial B; 11-13-2013 at 02:14 PM.
My bet is that the increase will totally be in the cheapskate zone. I say they keep the slow growth curve going and we're looking at $3.125M. MLS has yet to base the cap on attendance figures or TV deals so why start now.
^ The cap has to be more than that for 2015 because the 2014 cap is going to be $3.099 million.
No and no.
With the abundance of other choices elsewhere and many diasporas in Canada, no one here will EVER support a minor league "from the ground up" soccer system enough for it to eventually become pro or provide to pro leagues. We're a world class country, with a world class economy and we need to act like one.
If people won't come and watch, any exercise is pointless. Canadian fans have been saying since the NASL days that it won't go to see second-rate soccer. It's a non-starter and every new Div 2 team we put up is just a money loser waiting to die.
I wish that wasn't the case, but it's a fact. Why? Because it's been proven out again, and again, and again, and again. If something doesn't work, stop doing it.
The last time ( before MLS) that Canadian teams drew good crowds was the NASL, becuase people thought they were getting the best available to them. Edmonton routinely got 10,000 per game. It has never come close to that for any of the lower level offerings, including the NPSL and the CSL.
The travel issue is blown massively out of proportion; there are ways to lower the cost via regionalizing divisions and having travel sponsors. If the CFL can do it with 50-plus man rosters and a salary cap of under $5 million, so can a soccer league. By the way, I've had the population density argument with actual owners and investors in Canada, and they all agree it is a red herring, that there are ways to mitigate it.
There are only two substantial impediments, to me, and they're both huge impediments. 1) We do not have the infrastructure to support a "close to the pitch" soccer environment in most cities. 2)Canadian investors are notoriously cagy about getting into anything with risk. The latter I think can be mitigated somewhat by aligning with MLS owners. The former problem I don't really know how you address.
We KNOW from ratings that millions of people in this country enjoy the sport; once you have an audience, the rest is hard work and infighting. But to suggest a grassroots system with bus travel is just a complete waste of time.
You know, what might actually work is aligning with CFL owners. They already have the infrastructure, office staff and so on. And a very good deal with TSN that could be duplicated.
I did some digging on the average player salaries in a couple of the european leagues. I then tried to convert it into what the equivalent salary cap would be for MLS teams (based on the first 20 players counting against the cap) in USD. The numbers are generally from within the last 2 years, so there might be some inflation beyond what I accounted for. This is what I get:
League1 (FRA): $14 million
La Liga (SPN): $18 million
Serie A (ITA): $35.99 million
And for the English Tiers:
Premier League: $37.2 million
Championship: $6.8 million
League 1: $2.36 million
League 2: $1.25 million
If MLS wants to seriously become an attractive option for other players, improve the quality of play for spectators, leading to improved TV contracts, they will have to aggressively increase the cap for 2015. I think the goal of the next CBA should be to increase the cap to $5-6 million dollars with a 5-10% increase per year so the cap will be over $7 million cap by 2019, which will place them above Championship-level salaries. I think only then will MLS will be considered a top world league.
It will take at least another 20 years to get MLS-salaries to the level of EPL and beyond, but I think that's inevitable if the popularity of soccer increases in North America and the American networks get into bidding wars over TV rights. Of course, that I'm assuming they'll find ways to make revenue off streaming as well, since technology is changing.
<edit: I just saw jloome's post. Although I was talking about MLS, I just don't see how Canada can compete with the States in that field. Sure, the CFL is thriving in the west, but in the East it's dying a slow death. We'll have to see how well Ottawa's new franchise does in both the CFL and NASL over the next few years to see if that changes the risk-averse nature of Canadian investors. If the NASL teams can thrive, then perhaps at some point we can pull the MLS and NASL teams out and form our own league. But personally, I'd want as strong competition as possible for Canadian players, which for now means MLS. Maybe in 20 years it will be different.>
Last edited by Initial B; 11-19-2013 at 03:18 PM.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote