POSSESSION vs DIRECT/COUNTER ATTACKING/PARK THE BUS STYLE

[denime]

This thread is dedicated for discussion about

Winter's POSSESSION and
Mariner's hybrid of DIRECT/COUNTER ATTACKING/PARK THE BUS STYLE.

Please stay civil,do not argue the person, argue the opinion


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[denime]

Winter tried to implement RECEIVE-PASS-MOVE system,where players movement off the ball would create extra space,and coming into that empty space,this wasn't Spanish tika,taka where ball is circulating and passed around rather than positional interchange of players.

"Winters" system requires players to be comfortable in multiple positions and physical fitness must be top notch,this is where Winter failed ,while he was trying to teach lumberjacks (that Mariner ,Cockrane signed) how to receive-pass and move,their physical conditioning needed for high pressure game was nowhere to be found and we would get scored against at the end of the games.


Mariner does not play Preki's anti football with 10 players behind the ball grinding results ,he encouraging his players to play loooong pass "'when under pressure"(recorded on TFC TV players interviews),not realizing with every boot pressure is rising because opponent has the ball again.
While Mariners system looks more like counter attacking,it is not,in counter attacking football our team should try to overtake the opposition by quick and intelligent movement and fast passes,something that we definitely don't do so often to call it counter attacking football.

We are now stuck between counter attacking/direct football,that most of the time looks like park the bus ,and boot it without the intention to pass it to the feet of the receiving player.

[Richard]

I refuse to believe we can not aquire players to play in the RECEIVE-PASS-MOVE system, many team have players who are capable of this higher IQ system. There in lies the problem with TFC, player acquisition has been abysmal since day 1. Many team play a hybrid(Salary restrictions) and have some sort of pragmatic theme, not finding this happy medium is down to not having the right players.

[QSIM]

I refuse to believe we can not aquire players to play in the RECEIVE-PASS-MOVE system, many team have players who are capable of this higher IQ system. There in lies the problem with TFC, player acquisition has been abysmal since day 1. Many team play a hybrid(Salary restrictions) and have some sort of pragmatic theme, not finding this happy medium is down to not having the right players.

We have acquired certain quality players (though very few) that would fit more of a passing system perfectly, however for some reason, we always let them go. Prime example: Sam Cronin. He is one player I really wish we had back, perhaps more than anyone.

[[NBF]]

You have to have scouts and coaches that can acquire players to fit a system and TFC is trying to build something without the appropriate people to implement it. TFC can dream of playing in a 4-3-3, but with the coaches on the team right now they might be better off trying to play a defensive 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1.

• Paul Mariner - Head Coach and Director of Soccer Operations(Striker)

• Jim Brennan - First Assistant Coach(Defender/Midfielder)
• Jason Bent - Assistant Coach(Defender)
• Stewart Kerr - Goalkeeping Coach(Goalkeeper)

[RedsYNWA]

I have to chime in....The Spanish style is just as FARKING boring as the Greek style, I say keep the opponents guessing and adapt to your opponent, that Winter never did, the jury is still our on Mariner, but the players seem to have taken to him and that Is what matters most

[Pookie]

We have acquired certain quality players (though very few) that would fit more of a passing system perfectly, however for some reason, we always let them go. Prime example: Sam Cronin. He is one player I really wish we had back, perhaps more than anyone.

It is interesting to think of the players that have been let go and under which Coach.

Notables under Preki:

OUT - Guevara, Vitti, Cronin, Robinson, Wynne, Serioux,
IN - Gargan, Peterson, Harden, LaBrocca, Cann, Santos, Mista

Notables under Winter (2011-12)

OUT - basically the whole team including all of Preki's guys + DeRo, Barrett, Attakora, Gordon
IN - Stevanovic, Frings, Koevermans, Plata, Morgan, Johnson, Soolsma, Avila

Notables under Mariner

OUT - Plata, Soolsma, de Guzman
IN - to be determined

Stands to reason that each coach will fill his roster with his preferred style of player

[OgtheDim]

NE fans seem to be happy not playing Nicol/Mariner style.

[Pookie]

The one thing that concerns me most about our lack of emphasis on possession is the amount of ball chasing that results.

You'll have to forgive this analogy but our games since the coaching change have resembled that Chelsea vs Bayern Munich UEFA final. I say this with a proud blue flag and a Lampard kit hanging in my closet, Chelsea stole that one. That NE-TFC game last night reminded me of that. Corner after corner. Cross after cross. A terrific save. Ball goes out, ball comes back. The odd counter attack but finger nails bitten to the bone and the thought that luck was on our side. The losing team more deserving of the win.

I'll bet if those two exact teams replayed that game 10 times, Bayern Munich wins that 9 of 10 times. The odds are simply stacked against the team that doesn't hold the ball and gets desperately outshot. I'm not sure when or if Mariner will ever tweak that but it has to be a priority. On a one off basis, it can work but over the long haul the odds catch up to you.

[denime]

You have to have scouts and coaches that can acquire players to fit a system and TFC is trying to build something without the appropriate people to implement it. TFC can dream of playing in a 4-3-3, but with the coaches on the team right now they might be better off trying to play a defensive 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1.

• Paul Mariner - Head Coach and Director of Soccer Operations(Striker)

• Jim Brennan - First Assistant Coach(Defender/Midfielder)
• Jason Bent - Assistant Coach(Defender)
• Stewart Kerr - Goalkeeping Coach(Goalkeeper)

To play a defensive 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1 or anti football,something Preki was playing can not help it long term,I would really hate to see defensive hoof-ball and would definitely make my decision of not renewing ST much easier.

[Huyton]

New England attendance in 2007 and 2008 was around 17,000. 2011 it was 13,000 and this year they're down another 5% below that.

Maybe the New England fans that are still going are happy, but there's fewer of them.

[Abou Sky]

My $.02, I prefer winning with 40% possession over losing with 60%

It is 'kids football' but with players we have it seems to work.

We still need better quality defense to really do it right but you work with what you have.

[Huyton]

Interesting read at http://www.soccerstatistically.com/b...n-the-mls.html . It's from July last year.

Here's some of what he has to say:

In the past couple of blog posts I've looked at two common statistics and shown that they are not as meaningful as most people believe. shots on goal do not predict success very well, and assists favor players on better clubs. In keeping with this theme of misleading statistics in football, I decided to look at possession data. The commonly held notion is that the team that has the ball more (has a possession percent over 50) is more likely to win. This makes sense. A team with the ball more is more likely to score and less likely to concede. But does the data back it up? Does having more possession than your opponent mean you are more likely to win the game? I looked at the possession data from the MLS season so far. What I found goes completely against what most people would think. So far this season in the MLS, the average possession percentage for teams that have won the game is 48.5%. Teams that win actually posses the ball less. This means the average possession percentage for losing teams is 51.5%.

To get even more specific, I broke down the possession data further. Winning home teams average 50.9% possession, and winning away teams average 43.4% possession. On the other side, losing home teams average 56.6% possession and losing away teams average 49.1% possession. The histograms below illustrate these facts. I found that away teams, on average, have a possession percentage of 47.3%, and home teams have a possession percentage of 52.7%.

So what does all this mean? It seems possession percentage in the MLS does not predict success. Teams that possess the ball more don't win more; they actually lose more. Home teams also have a slight advantage in possession percentage compared with away teams.What about teams that completely dominate possession? You might think that a team that had the ball much more often than their opponent would be much more likely to win. I defined "dominating possession" as having the ball more than 60% of the time. So far this season, teams that have dominated possession have a record of 10 wins, 19 losses, and 18 ties. Domination in possession? Yes. Domination in wins? No.

This analysis calls in to question statements like "the Union had the run of play, they possessed the ball more and deserved the win." It's apparent that in the MLS, possession is not all that important when it comes to winning games. So what's the problem with possession? One reason could be that the best teams do not play possession football. The teams with the most success may play kick and run. Another possibility is that possessing the ball simply doesn't lead to wins. Either way, having the ball more than your opponent does not mean much in the MLS.



The emphasis above is mine.

[Pookie]

My $.02, I prefer winning with 40% possession over losing with 60%

It is 'kids football' but with players we have it seems to work.

We still need better quality defense to really do it right but you work with what you have.

Key point there is "work with what you have." I look at Philly as an example of a team that is struggling trying to implement 4-3-3 their way. Like we did through last season.

10 games into the season they were just 5 points ahead of us and our pitiful 1-9-0 record. Now, with our progress under this new system, they are still 4 points ahead with 2 games in hand. Why? Something clicked. Over their last 5 games, Philly is 4-1-0 with a +7 differential. They dominated us a few weeks ago. While the future remains to be seen, whose future looks brighter if you had to make a bet now?

I think you are right in that you need to work with what you have but if what you have isn't good enough, you can never compete. We have access to 19 US/Canadian players to make up the rest of our domestic roster. Virtually the same talent pool we have access to. Not putting resources into scouting is a choice. And unfortunately, that roster mis-management and choice of where to allocate resources impacts our style of play.

We will never excel if we don't seek the best players available. If we do, you'll find that the US Soccer Federation is getting behind attacking football and we will have to venture down this learning path once again.

[Pookie]

Interesting read at http://www.soccerstatistically.com/b...n-the-mls.html . It's from July last year.

Here's some of what he has to say:

In the past couple of blog posts I've looked at two common statistics and shown that they are not as meaningful as most people believe. shots on goal do not predict success very well, and assists favor players on better clubs. In keeping with this theme of misleading statistics in football, I decided to look at possession data. The commonly held notion is that the team that has the ball more (has a possession percent over 50) is more likely to win. This makes sense. A team with the ball more is more likely to score and less likely to concede. But does the data back it up? Does having more possession than your opponent mean you are more likely to win the game? I looked at the possession data from the MLS season so far. What I found goes completely against what most people would think. So far this season in the MLS, the average possession percentage for teams that have won the game is 48.5%. Teams that win actually posses the ball less. This means the average possession percentage for losing teams is 51.5%.

To get even more specific, I broke down the possession data further. Winning home teams average 50.9% possession, and winning away teams average 43.4% possession. On the other side, losing home teams average 56.6% possession and losing away teams average 49.1% possession. The histograms below illustrate these facts. I found that away teams, on average, have a possession percentage of 47.3%, and home teams have a possession percentage of 52.7%.

So what does all this mean? It seems possession percentage in the MLS does not predict success. Teams that possess the ball more don't win more; they actually lose more. Home teams also have a slight advantage in possession percentage compared with away teams.What about teams that completely dominate possession? You might think that a team that had the ball much more often than their opponent would be much more likely to win. I defined "dominating possession" as having the ball more than 60% of the time. So far this season, teams that have dominated possession have a record of 10 wins, 19 losses, and 18 ties. Domination in possession? Yes. Domination in wins? No.

This analysis calls in to question statements like "the Union had the run of play, they possessed the ball more and deserved the win." It's apparent that in the MLS, possession is not all that important when it comes to winning games. So what's the problem with possession? One reason could be that the best teams do not play possession football. The teams with the most success may play kick and run. Another possibility is that possessing the ball simply doesn't lead to wins. Either way, having the ball more than your opponent does not mean much in the MLS.



The emphasis above is mine.

I like this.

And I am fond of looking at possession, shots and passing accuracies in my posts. The point you make is very valid. Possession is simply a number that doesn't always equate to what is going on in the context of the game.

If a team scores to take a 2-0 lead with 20 minutes to go, it is most likely that they will simply try to park the bus and protect the lead (though I personally hate that philosophy as it opens the door to a collapse). As a result, possession numbers will swing by upwards of 22% (20/90). In an even 50/50 possession game to that point, the team that is losing will then see the possession numbers swing in their favour and that will be reflected in the final numbers.

What would be very telling is to see what the possession was like at the time that a team scores to take the lead.

Common sense and logic dictate that if you have the bulk of the shots and control the bulk of the play, you are more likely to score. This of course doesn't eliminate the chance that a counter attack based on a single error could lead to a goal.

The one reason that I like using them in reference to TFC is that it was essentially the same roster. Changes in those stats, are very telling of what is being emphasized in training.

What is also telling is that TFC has never held the possession lead since Mariner took over. Not when we are drawing. Not when we are losing. Not when we are winning. Never. It makes comebacks hard. It makes getting that leading goal in a draw hard. It makes protecting a lead hard. It makes getting result in close matches hard and considering 7 of our last 9 were decided by 1 goal or less, it is very relevant to our squad.

[Stouffville_RPB]

Mariner is getting results right now, no one can deny that. Winter wasn't getting league results.

Mariner's tactics don't look like something that you can count on every week.

Example 1 - More often than not if you decide that you are going to hold the fort for the second half chances are TFC will concede (because they always do). New England would've scored if not for Kocic.
Example 2 - Wednesday TFC scored in the 95th minute off of a set piece. TFC have scored 7 late meaningful goals in their history (which Armen showed us at rednationonline) that's about 1 per season. You can't count on that.
Example 3 & 4 - TFC's late collapses against in Houston and New England at home. Shows that the team still has the same problems defending that they always have had.

Winter, as I said, never got the league results and kudo's to Mariner for doing so thus far. However, looking at when Winter was successful in V-Cup and CL TFC's play looked like something that they could replicate again and again. Obviously they couldn't but it seems that Mariner's success thus far, when broken down has been rather lucky with elements that can't be counted on week in and week out.

I don't have an explanation as to why there was such a difference in league and cup play under Winter, but it seemed more viable that any team (not just TFC) has a better chance at achieve long term success under a Winter type structure than the current one TFC are employing.

[Beach_Red]

What is also telling is that TFC has never held the possession lead since Mariner took over. Not when we are drawing. Not when we are losing. Not when we are winning. Never. It makes comebacks hard. It makes getting that leading goal in a draw hard. It makes protecting a lead hard. It makes getting result in close matches hard and considering 7 of our last 9 were decided by 1 goal or less, it is very relevant to our squad.

Yes, it's interesting - under one system TFC has never held the possession lead and under the other system over nine games TFC never held the lead (maybe a minute and a half). It's too bad that at this point in time it seems to be a choice between these two.

We all agree where the team wants to be but it's not quite as easy to get there as MLSE expected. Maybe someone realized that if they weren't going to spend the money on scouting they'd have to wait until the type of player they need is easier to get.

Anyway, what we've seen so far is that with essentially the same roster it is possible to win games in league play (as many people expected). So the style of play right now may very well be a transition stage and the next roster moves made will be a better indication of where the team is headed.

[Canary10]

How many teams win averaging 30% possession?

[Pookie]

Yes, it's interesting - under one system TFC has never held the possession lead and under the other system over nine games TFC never held the lead (maybe a minute and a half). It's too bad that at this point in time it seems to be a choice between these two.

We all agree where the team wants to be but it's not quite as easy to get there as MLSE expected. Maybe someone realized that if they weren't going to spend the money on scouting they'd have to wait until the type of player they need is easier to get.

Anyway, what we've seen so far is that with essentially the same roster it is possible to win games in league play (as many people expected). So the style of play right now may very well be a transition stage and the next roster moves made will be a better indication of where the team is headed.

... to add, baring any big additions over the next few games, it will be interesting to see how much of this debate re: Mariner v Winter's results were really a function of Danny Koevermans hitting health and form.

Koevermans represented a significant attacking threat. Without him and a defensive minded game plan from Mariner, will teams simply play 3 across the back and load their mid-field to play a constant attacking style against us? Duncan Fletcher has a good piece on this on Sportsnet today.

[T-boy]

... to add, baring any big additions over the next few games, it will be interesting to see how much of this debate re: Mariner v Winter's results were really a function of Danny Koevermans hitting health and form.

Koevermans represented a significant attacking threat. Without him and a defensive minded game plan from Mariner, will teams simply play 3 across the back and load their mid-field to play a constant attacking style against us? Duncan Fletcher has a good piece on this on Sportsnet today.

but also interestingly, TFC have won the last two games without Koev's actually scoring any goals...and there have been 4 of them! And in fact, Koev's was only involved/assisted in one of those goals. So, out of the 3 games TFC have won under Mariner, Koev's has only scored goals in one of those games.

I would say, then, that its a number of TFC players have have been hitting form under Mariner, not just Koev's. Dunfield, Ecks, Morgan, Avila, and now Silva have all hit a good amount of form with Mariner. One player would be an anomoly, but a bunch of players is a pattern.

I love the tactical conversation, BUT....I think in the case right now, the improvement in results is down to good one-on-one man managemenet from Mariner, rather than any tactical genius. Mariner just knows how to motivate players (whereas Winter appeared to be useless at it!). Mariner seems to be able to get under-achieving players playing with much more confidence. His rhetoric is sometimes a little rediculous ("the best finisher in the modern era") - but it seems to work with players. His big hugs after substitutions just show how he is getting to know the players individually, giving them confidence. A confident team of players can play ANY formation and system and make it work. THAT is the main difference under Mariner compared to Winter. Winter had them playing a nice system with no confidence. Mariner has them playing a simple/basic/direct system with a bunch of confidence!

[__wowza]

I have to chime in....The Spanish style is just as FARKING boring as the Greek style, I say keep the opponents guessing and adapt to your opponent, that Winter never did, the jury is still our on Mariner, but the players seem to have taken to him and that Is what matters most

i think there's an inherent difference. the greek style is defensive, the spanish style is possessive. i know that you didn't mean they were similar in attack (just both boring), but it's a good analogy to make because when both teams are on the ball it's horrendous to watch.

one of the main areas of interest with this is the spanish attack and their use of shortpasses to break down an defense. you just keep passing and moving until you find a hole. we wouldn't do that because we had no one who know how to. instead, we relied on swinging crosses in. when you have only one serviceable crosser (soolsma).. well.. you get the beginning of our season. i would've been completely fine with the collapsing wingers like SKC play, but that would require our forwards to be able to finish outside of the box, which is something we never really got a chance to see.


while we're on that topic.. JDG seemed to be the only person comfortable with taking a shot from distance. he never hit the back of the net.. or the target for that matter.. but you'd think there'd be more of that, yeah?

[Beach_Red]

... to add, baring any big additions over the next few games, it will be interesting to see how much of this debate re: Mariner v Winter's results were really a function of Danny Koevermans hitting health and form.

Koevermans represented a significant attacking threat. Without him and a defensive minded game plan from Mariner, will teams simply play 3 across the back and load their mid-field to play a constant attacking style against us? Duncan Fletcher has a good piece on this on Sportsnet today.

Always the danger of relying on a DP, so yeah, it'll be interesting. It'll also be interesting to see how TFC adjusts for it.

[v00d00daddy]

I agree with the poster who mentioned how unlikely it is that things under mariners system can be repeated.

I thought the silva goal was very nice. Quick touches to space and a chance taken well.

Besides that...the way we've been scoring lately and getting chances will be hard to repeat on a daily basis.

The style we're playin is too dependant on individual performances. I'm afraid to see what is going to happen without koevermans scoring.

The current style will also be very simply figured out.

We shall see.

If we continue with kick and run beyond this season I'll be gone. I just can't bring myself to watch it.

It's everything I hate about football and I resent the style of play mainly because it's the reason I don't get to support my country at the world cup.

[T-boy]

I agree with the poster who mentioned how unlikely it is that things under mariners system can be repeated.

I thought the silva goal was very nice. Quick touches to space and a chance taken well.

Besides that...the way we've been scoring lately and getting chances will be hard to repeat on a daily basis.

The style we're playin is too dependant on individual performances. I'm afraid to see what is going to happen without koevermans scoring.

The current style will also be very simply figured out.

We shall see.

If we continue with kick and run beyond this season I'll be gone. I just can't bring myself to watch it.

It's everything I hate about football and I resent the style of play mainly because it's the reason I don't get to support my country at the world cup.

Apparently, winning!

[Beach_Red]

I agree with the poster who mentioned how unlikely it is that things under mariners system can be repeated.

I thought the silva goal was very nice. Quick touches to space and a chance taken well.

Besides that...the way we've been scoring lately and getting chances will be hard to repeat on a daily basis.

The style we're playin is too dependant on individual performances. I'm afraid to see what is going to happen without koevermans scoring.

The current style will also be very simply figured out.

We shall see.

If we continue with kick and run beyond this season I'll be gone. I just can't bring myself to watch it.

It's everything I hate about football and I resent the style of play mainly because it's the reason I don't get to support my country at the world cup.

Generally I agree with you, but in a league that has as part of its roster up to three, "Designated Players" how could it not develop teams based on individual performances?

Sure, some teams are managing their rosters better and moving towards the style of play you like (and one that I like and that is, I think, inevitable for this league - it's just a question of how fast it gets there) but when TFC announced not one but two Designated Players along with its "new approach" it was a plan doomed from the start. Or at least, doomed while it was headed in that direction. So, now we still have that poor roster management to contend with this season and then we can see what direction the team is taking (within the restictions of the league).

[prizby]

what happened saturday is due to the way the league has scheduled games for TFC. It was their 9th game in 28/29 days; there was no way (due to the lack of changes in the line-up) that TFC was going to be able to run with New England for 90 minutes; they'd have gotten eaten alive.

MLS talked about how the schedule would be more fair, but lets look at our opponents.

Kansas City - coming off the same 3 week MLS break, although they also played 2 Open Cup games; enough of a break to rest their players, just like us.
Houston - coming off the same 4 day break
New England - coming off a weeks break while we are off a 3 day break
Montreal - coming off the same 4 day break
New York - coming off a 6 day break, while we are on a 3 day break
Dallas - coming off an 11 day break, while we are on a 4 day break
Philadelphia - coming off the same 4 day break
Vancouver - coming off a 4 day break, while we are on a 3 day break
New England - coming off a 6 day break while we are on a 3 day break
Colorado - coming off the same 4 day break

40% of the games in this stretch see's teams coming off longer breaks for their players...and this is worse than an unbalanced schedule?

[Huyton]

Winter:
Team.........Poss.....Venue..Result
Seattle .....48.1..... A..... L
San Jose ....59.6..... H..... L
Columbus ....54.9..... H..... L
Montreal ....41.6..... A..... L
Chivas ......47.0..... H..... L
Chicago .....56.2..... H..... L
Salt Lake ...43.1..... A..... L
DC ..........46.1..... H..... L
DC ..........40.6..... A..... L
Philly ......41.6..... H..... W
Average .....47.9.... 6H,4A.. 0.3ppg

Mariner:
Team.........Poss.....Venue..Result
Kansas ......39.7..... A......L
Houston .....36.7..... A......T
New England .36.5..... H..... T
Montreal ....36.4..... A..... W
New York.....44.6..... H..... T
Dallas ......48........A..... T
Philly ......38.1..... A..... L
Vancouver ...40.5..... H..... W
New England .34.6..... A..... W
Average .....38.5.... 3H,6A.. 1.4 ppg


So...it's not whether you have the ball or not, it's what you do with it that counts.

[T-boy]

what happened saturday is due to the way the league has scheduled games for TFC. It was their 9th game in 28/29 days; there was no way (due to the lack of changes in the line-up) that TFC was going to be able to run with New England for 90 minutes; they'd have gotten eaten alive.

MLS talked about how the schedule would be more fair, but lets look at our opponents.

Kansas City - coming off the same 3 week MLS break, although they also played 2 Open Cup games; enough of a break to rest their players, just like us.
Houston - coming off the same 4 day break
New England - coming off a weeks break while we are off a 3 day break
Montreal - coming off the same 4 day break
New York - coming off a 6 day break, while we are on a 3 day break
Dallas - coming off an 11 day break, while we are on a 4 day break
Philadelphia - coming off the same 4 day break
Vancouver - coming off a 4 day break, while we are on a 3 day break
New England - coming off a 6 day break while we are on a 3 day break
Colorado - coming off the same 4 day break

40% of the games in this stretch see's teams coming off longer breaks for their players...and this is worse than an unbalanced schedule?

I think you'll find that the teams who were "coming off the same break" as TFC, did have a week break PRIOR to their last game. TFC have played a month's worth of double gameweeks, I don't think any team in the league has had constant double gameweeks other than TFC in the last month?

[T-boy]

I checked the schedule, TFC played midweek games on June 27th and also July 11th, whereas no other team did (other than the oppoment we were playing, obviously!). So, 2 more double gameweeks than any other MLS team in the last month. That's tough, man!

[Canary10]

I think you'll find that the teams who were "coming off the same break" as TFC, did have a week break PRIOR to their last game. TFC have played a month's worth of double gameweeks, I don't think any team in the league has had constant double gameweeks other than TFC in the last month?

TFC also had more games than any other team in the first 2 1/2 months of the season. CCL is the main reason for all this. Anyone reconsider whether progression there is worth it? Not that it'll be an issue for next year...