View Poll Results: Whack coaches + Players or 3 wise men???

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  • continue to whack coaches, players, etc...

    7 6.36%
  • Whack Paul Bierne, Tommy (the fuck) Anselmi, and Earl Cochrane (no pun required)

    103 93.64%
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  1. #211
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    Quote Originally Posted by BayernTFC View Post
    Beach_Red,

    MLSE has huge pockets. They are not outspent. But, you just keep believing that it's all about uncompetitive Canadian businesses if it makes you feel better. The Vancouver Canucks, Edmonton Oilers, Calgary Flames, Winnipeg Jets, Ottawa Senators, and Montreal Canadiens all have owners too. 19 years. 0 Stanley Cups.


    TFC is now owned by Rogers & Bell. I wish them the best of luck. For TFC's sake.
    I wish them luck, too (I sort of work for Bell, so I want to believe).

    And some of those Canadian teams made it to game seven of the finals, so it isn't as bleak as we sometimes make it out to be.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roogsy View Post
    In an effort to save the mods from having a brain aneurism over having more threads on discussing Winter's future, I brought this quote over here from the Montreal pregame thread:



    I would just like to put the record straight where we are in terms of number of games and his record because it's not fair to understate or overstate his record:

    2011 MLS, 34 Games, 6-15-13 for 33 points, 0.97 ppg.
    NCC/CCL, 16 games 9-4-3, 31 points, 1.94 ppg.
    2012 MLS, 8 games, 0-0-8, 0 points, 0.00 ppg.

    Total: 58 games, 15-19-24, 64 points, 1.10 ppg.
    Lets compare Winter to our other Managers - just for fun... (numbers are overall competitive matches). I honestly had no idea what these numbers would look like before running them.

    MoJo - 30 games 6-7-17, 25 points, 0.83ppg
    Carver - 40 games, 12-12-16, 48 points, 1.2 ppg
    Cummins - 30 games, 11-8-11, 41 points, 1.36 ppg
    Preki - 32 games, 11-10-11, 43 points, 1.34 ppg
    Dasovic 10 games, 3-3-4, 13 points, 1.3 ppg

    What I find interesting here - Winter is our second worst manager (after MoJo), he is our longest serving manager, and he is doing it with the highest payroll... Ouch

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    decimatio of the entire FO

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    Quote Originally Posted by BayernTFC View Post
    ... I happen to believe that TFC is in a much more complicated situation than during previous "crises"...

    I don't think it's as simple as a difference in opinion over formations. The current soap opera seems to be a battle for hearts and minds over philosophy. Do you find the players who fit the system, or do you build a system around the players you have? Do you focus on developing players and supplement with foreign talent, or use the traditional MLS style of building a backbone of US players and supplement with trades and the draft? Max out on DPs or spread the cap around?
    I have to agree that this crisis is about philosophy, but I would differ on the philosophical root issue... We can discuss/argue/bicker over players, trades, DPs, coaches, formations and cheque signings until the cows come home but that is just run-of-the-mill normal supporter's stuff. None of these things have brought us to the edge of the abyss that is currently staring us in the face. The real philosophical issue is: "Is it reasonable to keep the three key senior management guys, any longer, when they have displayed a collective of over 18 years of ineptitude, as demonstrated by running an insanely popular soccer organization into the ground?"

    Given the results of this poll to date, I would suggest that it appears that almost everyone who frequents this board is in agreement on where to land on this philosophical issue - we have as close to consensus as we will ever get on any topic (except on beer and ticket prices). The next step would be to figure out how to migrate our consensus over to the media, the public mindset and those who will ultimately stand in judgment of the 3 horses of the apocalypse... (Winter is the 4th horse, but he will be gone before Bierne, Anselmi and Cochrane ever meet their fate...)

    Some of the ideas that sound like they would draw attention:

    - plane flying around BMO field: "Hey, Ho, Bierne, Tommy, Cochrane Gotta go!"
    - a rogue band of 30-50 placard carrying protesters that roam around Downtown blocking traffic at whatever intersection they choose - it won't take the media long to pick up on that one!!
    - protest around the gates of BMO before games
    - an open letter to Bell/Rogers/MLSE given to various news organizations, signed by the presidents of all support groups calling for the resignations of the "big three"
    - dunno if we could persuade the "Blackburn protest chicken" to show up, but maybe the TFC squirrel could run around BMO field with a "Hey, Ho..." sign
    - all of the above?

    Toronto FC supporters have been brought through the wringer the last few years, so it may be hard to execute on any of these ideas, but it is delicious to envision them anyway....
    Perhaps the presidential open letter might be doable, and we might be able to smuggle a few squirrels in....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roogsy View Post
    In all fairness, probably not. But that is also a worst-case scenario because then it pretty much assures that not only have they selected wrong with Winter but will continue to select poorly going forward and we all are truly screwed.

    There is still an element of faith that hopefully the next time they get it right. Because so far they haven't. But that is hardly a supportive statement for keeping Winter in place. So it really just leaves us one choice. To pray and hope the next selection is better.
    yet there is no faith that Winter can turn the ship around? Wouldn't logic dictate that if you have got continually wrong in the past that you will continue getting it wrong going forward? Or is logic no longer in play now?

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    Quote Originally Posted by prizby View Post
    yet there is no faith that Winter can turn the ship around? Wouldn't logic dictate that if you have got continually wrong in the past that you will continue getting it wrong going forward? Or is logic no longer in play now?
    After 60 games faith is no longer relevant. There is sufficient actual evidence. Much more than a sample size of 4 hired coaches one of which is the one currently in charge. There is less evidence as to whether MLSE is worse at picking MLS coaches than there is that Winter is a poor MLS coach. This is particularly true given your own statement above about past performance being indicative of future results. If this theory is correct, there should be no question about the need to get rid of Winter. There's your logic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roogsy View Post
    After 60 games faith is no longer relevant. There is sufficient actual evidence. Much more than a sample size of 4 hired coaches one of which is the one currently in charge. There is less evidence as to whether MLSE is worse at picking MLS coaches than there is that Winter is a poor MLS coach. This is particularly true given your own statement above about past performance being indicative of future results. If this theory is correct, there should be no question about the need to get rid of Winter. There's your logic.
    funny cause while we continually pick more bad coaches, there is actually evidence in this league that if you actually gave a coach some time, that the coach has never missed the playoffs by his 3rd year in charge...yet you seem content to play manager roulette and ride the manager merry-go-round, which for this team has resulted in a grand total of ZERO playoff games

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    Quote Originally Posted by prizby View Post
    funny cause while we continually pick more bad coaches, there is actually evidence in this league that if you actually gave a coach some time, that the coach has never missed the playoffs by his 3rd year in charge...yet you seem content to play manager roulette and ride the manager merry-go-round, which for this team has resulted in a grand total of ZERO playoff games
    Do you think any one of our previous coaches would have made the playoffs by his 3rd year? (I'm not trying to be argumentative, I'm just curious).

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    Quote Originally Posted by prizby View Post
    funny cause while we continually pick more bad coaches, there is actually evidence in this league that if you actually gave a coach some time, that the coach has never missed the playoffs by his 3rd year in charge...yet you seem content to play manager roulette and ride the manager merry-go-round, which for this team has resulted in a grand total of ZERO playoff games
    So basically your argument is that hiring well is unimportant and all coaches should be given to their 3rd year regardless of results? I don't buy that. Performance matters. What happens to your theory if Winter doesn't make the playoffs in his 3rd season either? Give him a 4th because the evidence shows no coach has gone 4 years without making playoffs? Sorry but that is a ridiculous evaluation process. I guess we should have kept Preki 2 more years...crooked practices, losing the lockerroom and all.

    You keep an employee on because he shows he can do the job. Period. Not because you're tired of going through the hiring process.
    Last edited by Roogsy; 05-08-2012 at 08:14 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roogsy View Post
    So basically your argument is that hiring well is unimportant and all coaches should be given to their 3rd year regardless of results? I don't buy that. Performance matters. What happens to your theory if Winter doesn't make the playoffs in his 3rd season either? Give him a 4th because the evidence shows no coach has gone 4 years without making playoffs? Sorry but that is a ridiculous evaluation process. I guess we should have kept Preki 2 more years...crooked practices, losing the lockerroom and all.

    You keep an employee on because he shows he can do the job. Period. Not because you're tired of going through the hiring process.
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    I think people are picking and choosing their argument.

    The argument that coaches need 3 years to make the playoffs?

    The coaches who get the time to take 3 years have been coaches who have won in the past.

    For example people use Sigi Schmid in Columbus, yet the only reason he got 3 years was because in 6 years with the LA Galaxy they were champions once, were finalists two other times (including his first year when he took over early in the year), and made the semis 2 other times. At least semi-finalists 5 out of 6 years gives you leeway.

    Let's use the examples prizby has given in the past.

    So I don't understand this give him 3 years stuff. If Aron Winter was a proven, winning head coach, then yes I would give him the benefit of the doubt. Sure it took him 3 years in Columbus but he was given leeway because he was a winner.

    Frank Yallop in his first 3 years as a head coach of San Jose won 2 MLS Cups. So of course he was given leeway in his 2nd go around in San Jose because he was a winner.

    So name me another coach who was given 3 years in MLS without making the playoffs who never was a head coach before at any level. The only one I can see is Peter Vermes but he was a long time MLS player.

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    I think that Winter shows that he needs to go, but I'm under no illusions that this will instantly improve the team. In fact, getting the Winter hire wrong practically guarantees that this team will go through yet another painful transition period, even if we get the right guy this time around.
    Last edited by Oldtimer; 05-08-2012 at 09:24 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beach_Red View Post
    Do you think any one of our previous coaches would have made the playoffs by his 3rd year? (I'm not trying to be argumentative, I'm just curious).
    I think Carver would have done it for sure in 2010, maybe in 2009. I feel Chris Cummins would have done it 2010

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roogsy View Post
    So basically your argument is that hiring well is unimportant and all coaches should be given to their 3rd year regardless of results? I don't buy that. Performance matters. What happens to your theory if Winter doesn't make the playoffs in his 3rd season either?
    My theory is playing manager roulette has NOT worked, but giving a manager a third year in this league has!

    If Winter doesn't make it in his 3rd year, then you have to let him go, but if we don't give him that 3rd year (or any previous manager), how are we ever suppose to know...the problem has been the constant change in who is leading the club

    would you fire a manager if he finished in last place in the east (in a non expansion year) and then 2nd last place in the east (when the last place team was an expansion team)?

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    Quote Originally Posted by prizby View Post
    I think Carver would have done it for sure in 2010, maybe in 2009. I feel Chris Cummins would have done it 2010
    Yeah, I agree. And it doesn't matter now, but it might be worth pointing out, niether of those coaches were fired by the team and probably both could have stayed long enough to make the playoffs if they'd wanted to. So there hasn't really been that much "manager roulette." I guess the results are the same, but all that means is Winter happened to be in the right place at the right time, which for some people isn't a good enough reason to keep him if he doesn't start winning games now.

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    Other than Peter Vermes, where has it shown that giving a MLS coach 3 years, who is a first time head coach, has had success?

    a) You usually don't sign a first time head coach, even at MLS level, and expect success.

    b) You usually don't last 3 years anyway if you don't succeed....... unless you have a proven track record.

    The only time you can succeed with a first time head coach is if said coach has North American experience.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Whoop View Post
    Other than Peter Vermes, where has it shown that giving a MLS coach 3 years, who is a first time head coach, has had success?
    kreis. But I agree with you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by prizby View Post
    My theory is playing manager roulette has NOT worked, but giving a manager a third year in this league has!

    If Winter doesn't make it in his 3rd year, then you have to let him go, but if we don't give him that 3rd year (or any previous manager), how are we ever suppose to know...the problem has been the constant change in who is leading the club

    would you fire a manager if he finished in last place in the east (in a non expansion year) and then 2nd last place in the east (when the last place team was an expansion team)?
    If a data sample of 3 hired managers (yes THREE, the actual number of managers that have been hired by TFC) is what you use to validate your theory of "manager roulette", how much moreso is a sample of 60 games to prove what this current manager is capable of? You have arbitrarily chosen 3 years as somehow validating what he is capable of. Why is 60 games not enough? That is what you should really be answering.

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    New England had 28 points from 34 games for 0.824 points per game.

    At the moment, they have 9 points from 9 games (3 wins, 6 losses).

    Last year, in the first 9 games they went 2-3-4 for 10 points.

    So, they're actually worse this year. Incidentally, in their last 5 games, they've won 1 and lost 4, for 0.600 points per games.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Whoop View Post
    I think people are picking and choosing their argument.

    The argument that coaches need 3 years to make the playoffs?

    The coaches who get the time to take 3 years have been coaches who have won in the past.

    For example people use Sigi Schmid in Columbus, yet the only reason he got 3 years was because in 6 years with the LA Galaxy they were champions once, were finalists two other times (including his first year when he took over early in the year), and made the semis 2 other times. At least semi-finalists 5 out of 6 years gives you leeway.

    Let's use the examples prizby has given in the past.

    So I don't understand this give him 3 years stuff. If Aron Winter was a proven, winning head coach, then yes I would give him the benefit of the doubt. Sure it took him 3 years in Columbus but he was given leeway because he was a winner.

    Frank Yallop in his first 3 years as a head coach of San Jose won 2 MLS Cups. So of course he was given leeway in his 2nd go around in San Jose because he was a winner.

    So name me another coach who was given 3 years in MLS without making the playoffs who never was a head coach before at any level. The only one I can see is Peter Vermes but he was a long time MLS player.
    Name me any manager that went 0-8 and was given 3 years anyways is a better question.

    The crazy thing about this is that all of this debate about his performance which seems obvious enough to most people, and all of that without even touching on the fact that he has the THIRD highest payroll in MLS and THREE DPS!!!

    He can't perform with all those advantages and we should STILL give him 3 years???
    Last edited by Roogsy; 05-08-2012 at 10:15 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roogsy View Post
    If a data sample of 3 hired managers (yes THREE, the actual number of managers that have been hired by TFC) is what you use to validate your theory of "manager roulette", how much moreso is a sample of 60 games to prove what this current manager is capable of? You have arbitrarily chosen 3 years as somehow validating what he is capable of. Why is 60 games not enough? That is what you should really be answering.
    So what's the right number of games? 10? 30? 100? And what level of success would be required within whatever number of games you choose to keep one's job?

    Cuz somebody like Jon Spencer in Portland is looking like a firing candidate this year. Would you fire him if they finish where they are now? Last year he was praised despite not making the playoffs. And Spencer has no previous history of success as a head coach.

    I think Prizby's three year thing isn't any more arbitrary than someone saying 1 season is all a guy gets. The 3 year point is the outlier for success based on the past histories of all MLS coaches since 1996. It takes, at worst, 3 years to get a team to some level of success. Nobody is saying Winter will succeed in that time. But if one never gives a coach the chance, then we'll never know.

    Now, if Nicol is an option, then you might as well hire him (I wished we could have had him back then, but he was still employed).
    But I would say, again, that Nicol gets three years. If his team was shit after 60 games I wouldn't fire him and get somebody else.
    Last edited by rocker; 05-08-2012 at 10:21 PM.

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    I am all for making a case for giving a coach the time to make his case that he's on the right track but you don't always have to reach the full extent of a contract before you realize the full term is not necessary. Disregarding Chelsea's penchant for going through managers, you will find yourself hardpressed to find a Chelsea fan that doesn't believe switching AVB for DiMatteo was not the right move and I am sure that fanbase is even more tired of going through managers. The point isn't to land on any old manager and stick with him no matter what, it's to find the RIGHT manager and stick with him through the hard times. How has Winter made his case that he's the right manager?

    Yes new managers will struggle. But there is struggle and then there is what Winter is putting us and the players through. The arrival of these DPs should have minimized the struggles and yet our performance is historically poor (I wish that was a hyperbole). Imagine if we didn't have Frings? I shudder the thought.

    Hopefully the next coach will be given time. But if he starts 0-8 after an entire season to get things in order you damn well know I will be calling for his head as well, whether he is Nicol, DeRo, Pep or Sir Alex.

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    Quote Originally Posted by brad View Post
    kreis. But I agree with you.
    Kreis made the playoffs in his 2nd year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roogsy View Post
    I am all for making a case for giving a coach the time to make his case that he's on the right track but you don't always have to reach the full extent of a contract before you realize the full term is not necessary. Disregarding Chelsea's penchant for going through managers, you will find yourself hardpressed to find a Chelsea fan that doesn't believe switching AVB for DiMatteo was not the right move and I am sure that fanbase is even more tired of going through managers. The point isn't to land on any old manager and stick with him no matter what, it's to find the RIGHT manager and stick with him through the hard times. How has Winter made his case that he's the right manager?

    Yes new managers will struggle. But there is struggle and then there is what Winter is putting us and the players through. The arrival of these DPs should have minimized the struggles and yet our performance is historically poor (I wish that was a hyperbole). Imagine if we didn't have Frings? I shudder the thought.

    Hopefully the next coach will be given time. But if he starts 0-8 after an entire season to get things in order you damn well know I will be calling for his head as well, whether he is Nicol, DeRo, Pep or Sir Alex.
    This is what makes the difference.

    You have to cut the losses when things aren't going right. And things aren't going right.

    I'd have no problem giving Winter 3 years... if this season we had seen some improvement. But I don't have to be naive to see that things are worse.

    You have an 0-8 record, you have players publicly calling out the manager and his tactics, and you have stands getting emptier and emptier.

    Compared to last season where the team was bad at the beginning of the year but not historically bad, some disgruntled players but for the most part pretty happy, and the stands were a little fuller.

    To be that says things are getting worse. And it's not like we see sunshine over the horizon just yet either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rocker View Post
    So what's the right number of games? 10? 30? 100? And what level of success would be required within whatever number of games you choose to keep one's job?

    Cuz somebody like Jon Spencer in Portland is looking like a firing candidate this year. Would you fire him if they finish where they are now? Last year he was praised despite not making the playoffs. And Spencer has no previous history of success as a head coach.

    I think Prizby's three year thing isn't any more arbitrary than someone saying 1 season is all a guy gets. The 3 year point is the outlier for success based on the past histories of all MLS coaches since 1996. It takes, at worst, 3 years to get a team to some level of success. Nobody is saying Winter will succeed in that time. But if one never gives a coach the chance, then we'll never know.

    Now, if Nicol is an option, then you might as well hire him (I wished we could have had him back then, but he was still employed).
    But I would say, again, that Nicol gets three years. If his team was shit after 60 games I wouldn't fire him and get somebody else.
    I'm certain if Portland doesn't rebound or show some improvement as the season progresses, yes I will bet Portland will fire Spencer, you'll see.

    But even then Spencer has over a decade of MLS experience as a player, an assistant coach on a championship winning team, and as a head coach of a reserve side.

    So the outlier is 3 years for a coach, if he has North American experience.... don't see it for a guy who has no North American experience.
    Last edited by Whoop; 05-08-2012 at 10:59 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Whoop View Post
    Other than Peter Vermes, where has it shown that giving a MLS coach 3 years, who is a first time head coach, has had success?

    a) You usually don't sign a first time head coach, even at MLS level, and expect success.

    b) You usually don't last 3 years anyway if you don't succeed....... unless you have a proven track record.

    The only time you can succeed with a first time head coach is if said coach has North American experience.
    Gary Smith

    some other names to consider too:

    Colin Clarke
    Schellas Hyndman

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roogsy View Post
    Name me any manager that went 0-8 and was given 3 years anyways is a better question.

    The crazy thing about this is that all of this debate about his performance which seems obvious enough to most people, and all of that without even touching on the fact that he has the THIRD highest payroll in MLS and THREE DPS!!!

    He can't perform with all those advantages and we should STILL give him 3 years???
    Or a manager that started 0-0-8 in his second season. This team has clearly regressed, rather than improve incrementally over time (which is what you would want to see if you were committed to giving your coach a 3year window).

    This has become a train wreck. And professional soccer in this city is taking it squarely on the chops. 0-0-8 is a very ugly set of numbers, and it would take a complete turnaround (like a 6-0-2 run) to come close to undoing the damage. With players yelling at coaches, refusing to shake their hands when leaving the field, and now, players refusing to talk to the media, I don't think anyone should be holding their breath. I think the players are quickly losing faith in Winter, one by one. As much as I value stability in management, we can't continue ignoring the elephant in the room.
    AWAY TRIPS:

    March 2008 - Columbus; March 2009 - Kansas City; April 2010 - New England; July 2010 - Philadelphia.

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    Quote Originally Posted by prizby View Post
    Gary Smith

    some other names to consider too:

    Colin Clarke
    Schellas Hyndman
    Schellas Hyndman - 30 years of head coaching experience, all in North America

    Colin Clarke - made the playoffs in his 2nd full year of coaching FC Dallas, was fired after his 3 full year of coaching (Clarke was an interim coach in 2003 taking over for Mike Jeffries in September of 2003)

    Gary Smith - much like Colin Clarke, made the playoffs in his 2nd full year of coaching Colorado (Smith was an interim coach in 2008 taking over for Fernando Clavijo in August of 2008)

    In both cases Clarke and Smith were both given three year contracts AFTER being an interim head coach for half a season.

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    Hyndman - never coached professional players until dallas; coached the equivalent of academy/reserve players (much like Winter), but at much lesser team.

    Clarke - fine

    Gary Smith...never was a head coach or manager...was head coach of the watford u18 team and reserve manager (much like winter)

 

 

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