What happens if...

[Waggy]

In assessing 99.99% of situations, I believe you figure out a best case scenario and a worst case scenario and then project what will happen in reality to be somewhere in between. However for us right now, a best case scenario is sneaking into the playoffs and the worst case is missing them so there really isn't any middle ground to look at. I'm curious what sort of reaction people think both outcomes would have.

If we get the best case scenario, turn the season around and make the playoffs, how long is it until the casual fan comes back to TFC? Do they come back to TFC?

And if the worst should come to pass and we fall short yet again, how bad is the damage to the club/fan base?



*Another thread started by MLSE
** Not really. Though if MLSE wants to pay me to post on this forum, please contact me via PM.
*** I have my opinions on both and I'll give them eventually, but I don't want to skew the convo towards being about my opinions. That'll just lead to dark dark places until my sports fan mental state improves. If my sports fan mental state improves.

[maxpower]

Even if we make make the playoffs this season, the casual fan wont come back for a while. One season of winning is not going to make up for five seasons of losing. If we can have some sustainable success this year that leads into next, I can see us getting back the capacity crowds we had for the majority of our first 3 1/2 seasons.

On the other hand if it is another losing season as it looks it is shaping up to be, we can't sink any lower than where we are now. We are already a laughing stock to the rest of the league and football in general. In terms of the fan base, all the fans who were going to leave have already left, they might come back when we start winning, but everyone who is still there going to every game is definitely in it for the long haul.

That is just my opinion though.

[Shep]

Making playoffs would be amazing, but even if we don't, a bunch of good results would help. Especially at home. People want to cheer and feel good when they go out on a Saturday/Sunday for some entertainment, goals and wins would do that, and they must be at home. It's sooo much easier to take a loss when you are on the couch and can change the channel, but making the trip out to BMO for what ends up being a sad afternoon can kill the passion in many people.

[narduch]

Two words: Toronto Rock

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I can't help but think an opportunity was lost here. Most of the yuppie fans that were around in 2007 have moved on to the Blue Jays now.

I think the glory days of fan support could be restored, but only with sustained winning (in MLS league play) and an FO that isn't seen to be gouging fans again.

[Brooker]

Two words: Toronto Rock

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I can't help but think an opportunity was lost here. Most of the yuppie fans that were around in 2007 have moved on to the Blue Jays now.

I think the glory days of fan support could be restored, but only with sustained winning (in MLS league play) and an FO that isn't seen to be gouging fans again.

The yuppie fans have moved on to the Blue Jays? A team that is forever .500? Have you seen their crowds the past few games? Awful.

[narduch]

The yuppie fans have moved on to the Blue Jays? A team that is forever .500? Have you seen their crowds the past few games? Awful.

The Jays still have hope to sell. The same can't be said for TFC.

Have you seen the make up of the Jays crowds? Its mostly young people. 10 years ago it was all old people.

[Mark in Ottawa]

The truly casual fan doesn't care much about winning per se. They want to have fun, get excited and feel they are getting good value for money.

Remember the early days?? The team was a novelty, prices were more reasonable than than they are today and the supporters had amazing energy that was truly infectious. Being at a TFC game was a fun place to be and for the casual fan a place to be seen.

Today?? The atmosphere just is not the same despite the best efforts of the supporters.

[maxpower]

The truly casual fan doesn't care much about winning per se. They want to have fun, get excited and feel they are getting good value for money.

Remember the early days?? The team was a novelty, prices were more reasonable than than they are today and the supporters had amazing energy that was truly infectious. Being at a TFC game was a fun place to be and for the casual fan a place to be seen.

Today?? The atmosphere just is not the same despite the best efforts of the supporters.

But don't you think that they have the most fun, get the most excited and indeed feel they are getting the best value when we win?

[T-boy]

The fan bubble has well and truly burst at TFC and we all know it. The atmosphere is't anywhere near what it used to be. There was a time when the majority of fans were shouting, singing, chanting. Now its just a small section of 112, 113, and the NE=NE, nobody else mutters a sound.

I stand in 112, and at half time I sometimes switch to stand in the north side in the beer garden area. It's an earie silence in the north, let me tell you! Those of you who stand in 112/113, try going to the north end sometime and you can see how poor the atmosphere is in the rest of the stadium.

Right now I doubt the fan base will ever be back to where it was in 2007 and 2008.

[jabbronies]

Those who think the casual fan base is gone from TFC forever have their blinders on.

WINNING CHANGES EVERYTHING

We are talking about casuals here, they are swayed by one thing and one things only: GLORY!

If the teams starts to win, they come back. The stadium is full.
Skydome (not a typo) CCL game is a prime example of that. Do you honestly think 40,000 people knew why they were there? All they know is that TFC is in a championship game of some sort and if they win it will be good and glorious.

[Waggy]

Those who think the casual fan base is gone from TFC forever have their blinders on.

WINNING CHANGES EVERYTHING

We are talking about casuals here, they are swayed by one thing and one things only: GLORY!

If the teams starts to win, they come back. The stadium is full.
Skydome (not a typo) CCL game is a prime example of that. Do you honestly think 40,000 people knew why they were there? All they know is that TFC is in a championship game of some sort and if they win it will be good and glorious.

Exactly. Look at the resurgence of the Jays. They were as good as dead a few years ago. I regularly had convos about the aging fan base, and outside of a few of my friends no-one cared about the Jays. My dad dumped the season tickets he'd had since 77 because he couldn't even give away most games, and could EASILLY find better seats for way cheaper if not free (sound familiar?). Get a few electric players, some good results, some energy and some hope and everyone will be back. Compare the last games of last season/thus far this season with the LAG CCL. The casuals WILL come, but TFC have to give them some, ANY reason to. And for a few years they haven't.

My concern if we miss the playoffs? Even the hardcores are becoming apathetic to losses. Casuals will come and go, but if TFC erode their actual hardcore fan base then they're in BIG, big trouble. And sadly for MLSE, the hardcores wont be won back by discounts, promotions, friendlies, random big 'event' games etc. Only consistently good results. Or at least, performances.

[Fort York Redcoat]

I can't be worried about casuals. That's the clubs job.

[ginkster88]

The yuppie fans have moved on to the Blue Jays? A team that is forever .500? Have you seen their crowds the past few games? Awful.

If by "awful" you mean crowds of 25,000+ for mid-week evening and afternoon games and an average of 28,000+ so far in this young season then I agree with you.

Look around BMO on a Wednesday night sometime to see awful.

[Roogsy]

If we miss the playoffs again, the hit to the season ticket base will be substantial. You think it's hard to get rid of tickets this year? You ain't seen nuthin' yet.

If that happens, both Winter and Mariner may be gone. And to be honest, I would not be surprised if Paul B is as well. Going higher up on the foodchain, that could finally mean Tom A as well. There will be a house cleaning. New owners will use the underperformance as an excuse to put their own people in charge.

On the fan front, we will be in danger of becoming that which we mocked for several years now. Incredibly, we will have trouble selling out our own stadium, something many of us thought would never happen. JDG will be gone and will not return. And perhaps even Frings.

You guys think I have been hounding this team and these boards about the playoffs because I like it? Look at these consequences above and tell me YOU wouldn't freak out at the thought of the kind of damage we are in risk of seeing?

On the other hand, I could not tell you what positive consequences we will see if TFC make the playoffs. It will look good, but it won't be much of a benefit if we get bounced in the first round. It might delay the housecleaning by a year. But what fans and media are looking for is sustained performance, not sneaking into the playoffs and getting smacked around.

As for "winning cures everything". Yes, it will bring the fairweather fan back, but they will just as quickly leave as soon as the good times are gone. What you want is to create history, tradition, an environment of excellence. Something dads can tell their kids. Something you can hang on to during the lean years. "Yeah, I was there at the MLS Finals when we won the Cup!" sort of thing that will carry a team for 5 or 10 years. If you reach that level of excellence, even during the lean years, the fairweather fan will stick around much longer.

But history, tradition and excellence are not created with 1 year of playoffs. They are created by grouping several years together of competent, sustained excellence. We aren't even close to that yet. We haven't even reached the level of "good team" yet. And the longer it takes for us to reach that sustained performance, the further away achieving that reputation and spirit around this club gets.

[ginkster88]

On Saturday my sporting event choice was no-brainer: sit comfortably indoors to watch the Jays.

Five years ago it would have been an equally simple choice, only the other way around (weather being a non-factor when in came to TFC).

Well done, MLSE!!

[Waggy]

If we miss the playoffs again, the hit to the season ticket base will be substantial. You think it's hard to get rid of tickets this year? You ain't seen nuthin' yet.

If that happens, both Winter and Mariner may be gone. And to be honest, I would not be surprised if Paul B is as well. Going higher up on the foodchain, that could finally mean Tom A as well. There will be a house cleaning. New owners will use the underperformance as an excuse to put their own people in charge.

On the fan front, we will be in danger of becoming that which we mocked for several years now. Incredibly, we will have trouble selling out our own stadium, something many of us thought would never happen. JDG will be gone and will not return. And perhaps even Frings.

You guys think I have been hounding this team and these boards about the playoffs because I like it? Look at these consequences above and tell me YOU wouldn't freak out at the thought of the kind of damage we are in risk of seeing?

On the other hand, I could not tell you what positive consequences we will see if TFC make the playoffs. It will look good, but it won't be much of a benefit if we get bounced in the first round. It might delay the housecleaning by a year. But what fans and media are looking for is sustained performance, not sneaking into the playoffs and getting smacked around.

As for "winning cures everything". Yes, it will bring the fairweather fan back, but they will just as quickly leave as soon as the good times are gone. What you want is to create history, tradition, an environment of excellence. Something dads can tell their kids. Something you can hang on to during the lean years. "Yeah, I was there at the MLS Finals when we won the Cup!" sort of thing that will carry a team for 5 or 10 years. If you reach that level of excellence, even during the lean years, the fairweather fan will stick around much longer.

But history, tradition and excellence are not created with 1 year of playoffs. They are created by grouping several years together of competent, sustained excellence. We aren't even close to that yet. We haven't even reached the level of "good team" yet. And the longer it takes for us to reach that sustained performance, the further away achieving that reputation and spirit around this club gets.

Confusious say: a journy of 1000 miles begins with a single step. Get some wins, get casual fans back, get more wins, convert casual fans to fans, win championships, convert fans to die hards.

But ya. I actually think you may even be optimistic about the prospects for the club if we fail this year. I'd honestly expect an average attendance next year of ~12000 or less. I have a sneaking suspicion the season ticket base will basically be gone (at this point, you either have to be fanatic about TFC or soccer to pay for seasons when you can attend any game and sit anywhere for very little). And the unused season tickets have been propping up TFC attendance numbers for 2-3 years

[tfcleeds]

The atmosphere at BMO in the early years was what it was in large part because TFC was simply the new kid on the block. A clean slate as far as Toronto sports franchises were concerned, a chance for hope in a sea of mediocrity when it came to professional sports in Toronto. Also, as far as the casual fan was concerned, the atmosphere at BMO was unlike anything they had seen before with the level of fan involvement. Word quickly spread that BMO was the place to be on a Saturday afternoon for a fan experience unlike what the other professional sports teams offered, and that was what sustained the interest of the casual fan in the early years. To some degree, even they got into the spirit a little bit, which was great to see (eg. all the feet stomping in the West stand, "East side, stand up", etc.Now that TFC have so far proven to be just another sad-sack Toronto team, the casuals are long gone. The atmosphere experienced during the early years may come back, but the only way that will ever happen now is through a period of sustained winning on the field.

[Carts]

the atmosphere at bmo in the early years was what it was in large part because tfc was simply the new kid on the block. A clean slate as far as toronto sports franchises were concerned, a chance for hope in a sea of mediocrity when it came to professional sports in toronto. Also, as far as the casual fan was concerned, the atmosphere at bmo was unlike anything they had seen before with the level of fan involvement. Word quickly spread that bmo was the place to be on a saturday afternoon for a fan experience unlike what the other professional sports teams offered, and that was what sustained the interest of the casual fan in the early years. To some degree, even they got into the spirit a little bit, which was great to see (eg. All the feet stomping in the west stand, "east side, stand up", etc.now that tfc have so far proven to be just another sad-sack toronto team, the casuals are long gone. The atmosphere experienced during the early years may come back, but the only way that will ever happen now is through a period of sustained winning on the field.

100% spot on...

[Brooker]

If by "awful" you mean crowds of 25,000+ for mid-week evening and afternoon games and an average of 28,000+ so far in this young season then I agree with you.

Look around BMO on a Wednesday night sometime to see awful.

I was talking more about their usual crowds.... Thinking more of last year. It's the very start of the season. Surely you have to wait to get the real feeling....

[Pookie]

Here's the simple premise. Attendance is influenced by price and by hype (or perceived value in attending). That's it.

We were winning games in the CCL before and had attendance under 10,000. The casual fan had no idea what the CCL was about and ticket prices, at the time, were sold at or near full price. Throw in reasonably priced tickets, a David Beckham, a Rogers corporation eager to hype the game based on renting at its facility and you have 45,000, easy.

Winning will not bring the fans back. Further, winning and ticket prices cannot and are not related.

Attendance is related to supply and demand and that is influenced by price. If prices are high, fans might be able to afford a one off like a playoff ticket or two but over the long term, it isn't sustainable.

We are usually 5,000 seats short of capacity and when you look at where people sit, they are avoiding the premium seats. Further, when new season ticket holders are offered seats, it is in the expensive section. This highlights that there is no market for them or at best a very limited market that isn't buying right now.

If prices were restored to 2007-08 levels and the games were hyped on Bell/Rogers properties like Sportsnet and TSN then you'd see the fans back in droves.

As for the second part, value, I guess for some it could be related to seeing their team win. But paying for winning isn't sustainable. At some point, ticket prices will reach each of our disposable income limit and winning or not, the choice not to go is made easier the closer they get to our budget limit.

For me it is the bigger picture of putting up with a crappy stadium location smack in the middle of annual construction headaches, scheduled events that limit parking and no TTC service for those of us living north of the city. I wanted to bring my 2 daughters to the game on the weekend. I looked on the exchange and the only 3 together were $86/ticket. $86? Over $240 for us to see a team play in a league that is one step above FC Edmonton in the NASL? Christ (or Darwin), I don't pay that much to see the CNMT play and even at 75th in the world, they play a more complete game than what we see in the MLS.

It's not worth it. Now we did go thanks to a fellow RPB who we worked out a more suitable arrangement. For the cash I paid him, the value outweighed the cost and we went.

Again though, the decision to go had nothing to do with deciding to pay for a chance to see them win. It was related to the fact that the price was reasonable relative to the value we would get (time together, cheering the team on, etc) and it outweighed the other hassles. For $240+, I could have bought each of them new bikes, spent the day riding to the park and then home in time for an indoor picnic in front of the TV and watched the game there.

Winning is rarely a factor in our decision to purchase. They try to link it so that they can dismiss our price concerns. Oh, you wouldn't be complaining if we were winning. Naw smart ass, if we were winning and you were pricing it reflective to the fact we were winning, I would have a choice of sending my kids to college for a year or paying for your season tickets. Which do you think I'll choose?

[ensco]

The pricing problem is way, way bigger than TFC. Pro sports as an industry reminds me of the US housing sector in 2005 - there had never been a down year, and everybody involved thinks it'll go on forever.

I also think the meccano set stadium is an issue. I kind of like it, but people don't want to come back. It's got zero charm for the casuals.

[MG42]

If prices were restored to 2007-08 levels and the games were hyped on Bell/Rogers properties like Sportsnet and TSN then you'd see the fans back in droves.

I can't understand why it is so difficult to get the games on one channel, it's so frustrating.

[Whoop]

I don't know if winning changes everything.

If you look at the Toronto Rock - it's a situation I know well given that a lot of my hockey friends are tied in with the game - winning didn't change anything.

If you look at the Toronto Rock's attendance figures, they went up as the team kept winning, with the pinnacle being in 2005 when they won their 5th championship in 7 years. With Les Bartley and Terry Sanderson, the team was in good hands and going to a lacrosse game and get liquored up was the place to be on a Friday night, especially for the young, casuals who liked a hard, tough, fast sport.

But ownership didn't like the strangehold that the "Orangeville crowd" had on the Rock, so in 2006 when the Rock struggled a bit, they fired Sanderson and brought in Mike Kloepfler and Glenn Clark. Starting in 2007, the team started to lose and lose badly and at the same time started to alienate their season ticket base. Attendance figures started dwindling.

After a few years of missing the playoffs - which would have been unheard during the heyday - they brought back Terry Sanderson as the GM in 2009. And while the team rebounded to win, including winning the NLL championship in 2011, the attendance never rebounded to the numbers from their heyday of the mid 2000s.


Here are their attendance numbers since they've been in existence.

1999 - 11,075 (at Maple Leaf Gardens)
2000 - 13,881 (at Maple Leaf Gardens)
2001 - 15,749
2002 - 15,689
2003 - 16,733
2004 - 16,907
2005 - 17,123
2006 - 16,538

2007 - 15,851
2008 - 14,572

2009 - 11,623
2010 - 10,067
2011 - 10,985

It's the old adage - It's harder to gain a customer once you lose them. Once you have a customer don't alienate them or lose them.

People will say "well soccer is bigger than lacrosse" but lacrosse is a pretty big sport in southern Ontario and the NLL is the top pro lacrosse league in the world while a lot of people aren't big fans of MLS.

[Pookie]

The pricing problem is way, way bigger than TFC. Pro sports as an industry reminds me of the US housing sector in 2005 - there had never been a down year, and everybody involved thinks it'll go on forever.

I also think the meccano set stadium is an issue. I kind of like it, but people don't want to come back. It's got zero charm for the casuals.

I remember talking with David Foot, an economist at the U of T who wrote Boom, Bust and Echo. He uses demographics to explain "2/3rds of everything." His work is based on a simple principle that people generally "act their age." Meaning that you can make predictions about behaviour and economic impact based on the number of people in an age bracket.

He noted that folks under 30 are the ones that typically attend live sporting events. Over 30, we tend to have other interests (or competing demands such as family). Those in their 50s and 60s just aren't motivated. Not to say that you won't find examples outside the norms but for the most part, this describes the bulk of the population in a given age group. eg. Some 80 year olds sky dive but the majority don't.

If you look at population booms, echos and what he calls the "baby bust" there are fewer people in the "live sports attending cohort" than there were years ago.

This speaks directly to your comment about thinking it will go on forever. People will still attend but the market is smaller and with more plentiful choices, you have to be really sensitive to competition for the disposable income. And since disposable income is likely lowest for people under 30 who are paying off debt or acquiring it (ie. car loans and mortgages), price is a huge factor in their decision.

[tiberius]

... And if the worst should come to pass and we fall short yet again, how bad is the damage to the club/fan base?

I can't be worried about casuals. That's the clubs job.

Pretty cavalier assessment, imho. It is the casuals in 2011 that first bought seasons and perhaps drank the kool-aid to renew in 2012. It is the casuals who backfilled most of the new season purchases in 2012. It is the casuals who have to pony up for the expensive tickets - it is the casuals who make this franchise viable. The revenue from the south end is trivial... It is the casuals who have saved the 2012 season from being a financial disaster...

Those casuals, as with many, many STHs before them will feel in 2013 that THEY WOULD BE STUPID TO RENEW. The euphoria of the 2007-08 games is not there - there is zero demand for the "hot ticket" - the product is potentially embarassing, they will realize that their tickets are cheaper on travelzoo and they, like many before them will feel like CHUMPS. As Roogsy so rightly states - even if a hail mary gets us into the playoffs, it will not substantially change the fate of the team. A place in the MLS finals will make a huge difference, but barring that - this team will be in severe decline next year on many fronts - season tickets, attendance, revenue, coaching, team personnel, concessions, tv contracts etc.

Perhaps Redcoat doesn't care about "the casuals" but I damn well do! Perhaps a drop to 10-12K in Season ticket holders doesn't seem worrisome - but do the math - who is going to shell out the $ for "Frings-like" players when guaranteed revenue has dropped by 5-10 million dollars? Meh - casuals - who the hell needs them anyway...

[narduch]

Take a look at craigslist or kijiji on game days. There was an ad this past Saturday selling tickets in section 108 for $10 each.

You can't give these tickets away. Eventually people season seat holders get tired of taking a massive hit on the games they can't attend. Most fans can't attend 15-20 sporting events in a year.

[SoccMan]

What we do need though is some major renovations to BMO Field, next time you get a chance watch a game on TV from Sporting Kansas City's stadium it makes BMO Field look like a high school stadium. BMO field needs to be enclosed right around, it needs a roof on all four stands, the stadium is much too open it just looks like four temporary stands surounding a soccer field that's it, even Montreal's Saputo Stadium once fully renovated will make BMO Field look bush league. There is no charm to BMO a very basic dull looking place.

[Roogsy]

People would put up with our tin can stadium if we were winning games and trophies.

[JavierMartini]

So much for that essay, thanks 404 error.

Anywho, I have no interest in playoffs for this sport.

I hope we hit rock bottom, house gets cleaned, we get a roof and south end designated a supporters end, accesable seating gets moved to the north end. Then the club comes back to glory with a rocking south end of support behind it.

Eh, the NEE could play like the FC and just be letters

Let the monty python refrences rain.

Er,

NEE, NEE , NEE: now get me a shurberry.

[Waggy]

Some great points. To steal from a whole bunch of you, one thing i used to love about going to TFC games was how accessible it was. It seems like most agree that the mid to late 20's demographic is the casual fan base to attract. And the thing that Jays games provide? Accessibility. Just checked the Jays site. You can buy a 15 game pack for the Jays in the 500s for 120 bucks. Full seasons tickets in the 500s for $588. Thats for ~75 games, which works out to under $8 a game. TFC doesn't have the info online, what does a south end season ticket go for in 2012? For how many games? If it's what I remember it was something like $350 for 18 games, right? As someone sitting right smack in the middle of that demographic, if my options are paying $350 for 18 games (for a team thats spinning its wheels) or $588 for 75 games of a young, exciting team, I mean it's a simple choice. Hell that Jays Card you could get before the season was $100 for access to EVERY Jays game. $100 for 81 games! I (and most of my friends) aren't exactly awash in cash. Even the ones with good jobs. Economically if you want to maximize your dollar, you're going to the Jays every single time. It's cheaper, more likely to entertain, less likely to end in heart break, controlled weather, less obtrusive security, more food options, WAY more washrooms/no ridiculous lines for things (in the 500s anyways). More women. More drunk women. Easier to get rid of if you can't go (and more opportunities to trade for future tickets). I'm a big fan of both teams, and honestly, I can't think of a single reason at this point to pick an afternoon at BMO over an afternoon at the dome that doesn't involve the supporters.

All that said, I do think TFC are in a better position than the Rock. The Rock marketed well for a few years but then never adapted and paid the price. They were also guests in a building, didn't have owners who owned major sports networks, radio stations and newspapers and didn't have the marketing machine of MLSE behind it. TFC over marketed and over charged and now they're paying the price. Fix the pricing, win some games and people will come back if for no other reason than to feed off the energy in the south end, to enjoy a summer afternoon feeling the breeze off the lake and to watch a competitive team that actually has the word Toronto somewhere on their jersey. I don't think it's only TFC that's going to see a ticket bubble burst next year without results. If the Raptors dont take a step forward next year, they're not far from TFCs situation. And if the Leafs start off cold.... ho boy. Not that they'll have a tough time selling tickets, but there will be a lot of empty seats. And generally ticket sales only cover costs, profits all come from concessions. An empty seat is 1 less customer, even if MLSE has their 100 for the ticket. No $15 on burkie dogs, $40-50 on beer, $10 popcorn etc. Toronto's a bustling city. There are plenty of things to do on a saturday afternoon or evening that don't involve donating to MLSE's cause.