Keep Winter or Scrap Him?

[Jack]

I have a few considerations:

1) For those of you criticizing Winter for his selection of Dunfield and Harden, who would you have him play in their places? Henry and Stinson were at the Olympic Qualifiers, Frings got hurt, JDG has been lacklustre, Cann was hurt, Aceval has been underwhelming. Who slots into those two places in the lineup under the above-mentioned circumstances? I've seen bitching about it, but no viable options.

2) His record is shocking if looked at from the start of last season, but what is it from the middle of last season, when he finally got his pieces in place? Given the start this year, it still isn't all that great, but there were some pretty decent moments in the 2nd half of last season.

3) What happens if we fire him now? What are our other options? Now that his first team options are back in terms of defence, I think it's fair to give him another half a dozen games to see if things shore up.

If things are still a disaster after 4 or 5 more games, then we'll know there's no option but for him to step aside.

[Oldtimer]

If you want to blame winter for anything, it has to be Player management.

One example of this is playing Plata as a starter. The guy is clearly a super sub who should be brought in once the defense is tired.

I really don't think this is the difference maker. Few mls coaches are tactical geniuses, otherwise they would be coaching in Europe. You only have to be as smart as 50% of MLS coaches to make the playoffs, which having seen enough MLS matches, is a pretty low barrier. Most MLS coaches aren't that great, there are only a couple who deserve any special mention.

The key in any salary-capped league is the player-acquisitions. Management failed in that before the season ever started. TFC only needed a few pieces, especially in central defense to become a decent club. Currently I would give a "zero" rating on bringing in decent defenders.

A few pieces makes the difference between MLS champs and bottom feeders.

[Oldtimer]

3) What happens if we fire him now? What are our other options?

We have options. There is available a Dutch MLS-Cup-winning coach who knows how to correctly use the 4-3-3 in an MLS context to be a winner. He has an excellent resume, including turning around a losing national team. He knows the young US player pool deeply. Best of all, he won't be hard to sign or cost the club anything because Thomas Rongen is already working for TFC, running the academy.

[jloome]

This whole thread says more about this board than about our team. For the last half of last season and the CCL run at the beginning of this one, many of these people seemed to disappear. Now the team is on a bad run, and It's LIKE OLD HOME DAY AROUND HERE.

It seems like some people would rather the team lose under Winter for the sole purpose of maintaining their fragile, ultra-competitive egos. But let's look at a few facts here:

* As oldtimer noted, without one of their clutch players, LA is shit. Not TFC shit, but we've jot JDG (signed by MO, not the current guys) and not Donovan or Beckham.

* John Spencer is generally regarded as a talented coach and a big part of why Houston won two titles under Kinnear, and his Portland team has lost four in a row. Is he suddenly shit, too? His DP striker is scoring goals and they're still losing.

* Frank Yallop has been awful for four straight years in San Jose. This year, he has the pieces together. Was he shit then but isn't shit now? How does that work exactly?

* In three of the five losses we outchanced the other team. That has NEVER happened with any of our past crappy teams, all of which were crappier than this one, regardless of the record poor start.

Look, people need time to hang themselves. Mo got five years and was shit the whooooole time.

Is Winter's team shit? Looked pretty good against LA, and in the first Santos game. So, apparently not all the time.

For the first time, TFC isn't dreadful to watch. Lord, It's not good. But it's not dreadful. So having a system does have some payoff. We also have youth coming up and actually being used (although too much in Morgan's case).

Conflating this start into complete ineptitude is just argumentatively ignoring the facts. We're not as good as we should be, but we don't deserve to be 0-5, either. We've outchanced three of the five teams we've lost to.

We have serious issues. Our passing the other day clocked in at 69% and so we only had 43% of the ball, despite creating the better chances. Our centre midfield is very weak, especially without frings.

On the other hand, Cann looked good, commanding even. He made Aceval look a little better (although he still had four major gaffes, by my count, and shouldn't be starting.)

We may have an 0-5 start, but the facts don't suggest we have an 0-5 team, or a coach who deserves only 18 months to turn around Mo's five-year mess. He at least should get the season.

[jabbronies]

I'll have to disagree with you on this, but I hope you are right. We will see next year if this is true. That's two years for the Academy in its current incarnation - so if this theroy holds we should have a whole bunch of better than standard MLS players ready to go next year.

I don't think you'll see a whole bunch. I would expect 1 or 2 per year though.

This year we've already seen Roberts graduate - albeit because of an emergency, but he is the official backup for us. So there's a good chance we'll see him play at least a cople times this year.

You could argue that if Vukovic gets first team move with the impact, he could be considered a graduate of the academy, not for TFC, but he is a graduate.

I would like to see another graduate to the first team by the end of this year, but it could be asking much.

[jabbronies]

I really don't think this is the difference maker. Few mls coaches are tactical geniuses, otherwise they would be coaching in Europe. You only have to be as smart as 50% of MLS coaches to make the playoffs, which having seen enough MLS matches, is a pretty low barrier. Most MLS coaches aren't that great, there are only a couple who deserve any special mention.

The key in any salary-capped league is the player-acquisitions. Management failed in that before the season ever started. TFC only needed a few pieces, especially in central defense to become a decent club. Currently I would give a "zero" rating on bringing in decent defenders.

A few pieces makes the difference between MLS champs and bottom feeders.

Uh - Actually player management is a huge part of what being a manager is. Anyone who follows TFC should know Winter has next to 0 tactical expertise and that DeClerk is the guy running that part of the show. So if he isn't tactical and he isn't managing the players (playing time, egos, etc) What exactly do you think he is doing?

Also - didn't both DeClerk and Winter say that they were putting all their faith in Decoy and Cann on the CB front?

I love that people on the board think it's just that easy to strut into a foreign league and just grab the best CB from a team as if they were shopping at Walmart. If it were that easy, do you think every MLS team would do that? Why hasn't LA done that with the loss of Omar Gonzalez?

[Jack]

We have options. There is available a Dutch MLS-Cup-winning coach who knows how to correctly use the 4-3-3 in an MLS context to be a winner. He has an excellent resume, including turning around a losing national team. He knows the young US player pool deeply. Best of all, he won't be hard to sign or cost the club anything because Thomas Rongen is already working for TFC, running the academy.

He won the MLS Cup in 1999. Compared to what this league is now, that's like winning the RPB Soccer Tournament in Niagara.

[Waggy]

He won the MLS Cup in 1999. Compared to what this league is now, that's like winning the RPB Soccer Tournament in Niagara.

Have to agree. Wasn't he coaching American Samoa when we poached him? People are questioning Winters pedegree coming from Ajax lol.

Have to agree completely with you on your other post as well Jack. No point in replacing him now. It just waives a white flag on this season. However if Frings comes back and the team is still shit after 5 or 6 games? The white flag may already be waiving.

[jabbronies]

We have options. There is available a Dutch MLS-Cup-winning coach who knows how to correctly use the 4-3-3 in an MLS context to be a winner. He has an excellent resume, including turning around a losing national team. He knows the young US player pool deeply. Best of all, he won't be hard to sign or cost the club anything because Thomas Rongen is already working for TFC, running the academy.

And his past 3 stints have been with American Somoa?? (Ranked lower than Canada)
US-u20 (got fired)
Chivas (missed the playoffs)

Sure he's got some credentials from an Era of US soccer that is now considered "outdated" and "irrelevant"
I'd say his '07 and '09 U-20 wins are the most relevant to what football in the US is all about now.

With that being said, is bringing in someone to coach a senior team who's only really had success with youth teams the best solution?

[trane]

I agree that winter shuold not be fired now, and that the team is not playing that poorly. But we are making the same old mistakes defensing and the results could not be any worse. I do not think you fire him now, BUT an active management team, has to start realizing that the time may be approaching, and that they need to have a plan be, if as Jack says, 4-5 games down the road, when we have 2 points, out of 30, we can make a change.

[Walms]

Winter came here to build a team from the ground up.... Redesinge the entire Acadamy..... And implement a new way TFC plays football....

It's been under a year and a half since he came to Toronto and we have seen a compleatly new team, sined 4 Acadamy kids, and made the CCL semi finals

I think winter is doing a dam fine job!!!

Give him the 2 years he aske for, let him build a team and by this time next season we will be unstoppable!!

[ginkster88]

Should be a "don't care" option to truly capture the apathy of the supporters.

[trane]

Winter came here to build a team from the ground up.... Redesinge the entire Acadamy..... And implement a new way TFC plays football....

It's been under a year and a half since he came to Toronto and we have seen a compleatly new team, sined 4 Acadamy kids, and made the CCL semi finals

I think winter is doing a dam fine job!!!

Give him the 2 years he aske for, let him build a team and by this time next season we will be unstoppable!!

Lets not give him 2 years, that is not enough. 5 I say. Everyone knows it takes five years to build a winner. Our mistake that we fired Mo to early, and did not give him the full five years.

[Roogsy]

If things are still a disaster after 4 or 5 more games, then we'll know there's no option but for him to step aside.

And our season would be done and it won't even be the halfway mark.

Nobody sees a problem with this?

[Roogsy]

Lets not give him 2 years, that is not enough. 5 I say. Everyone knows it takes five years to build a winner. Our mistake that we fired Mo to early, and did not give him the full five years.

I do enjoy seeing Winter get credit for the Academy kids that were here before he arrived and that he did not want to use at all but was obliged to do so because he couldn't fill the roster. If you want to give anyone credit for bringing up the academy kids, you should be praising Mariner, not Winter.

That's like me winning the lottery and crediting it to my fantastic math skills that I picked the right numbers.

TFC...the only place where MLS parity doesn't exist and 5 year plans are all the rage!

[trane]

^ There is not skill in winning the lottery?

[trane]

And our season would be done and it won't even be the halfway mark.

Nobody sees a problem with this?

That is the gamble. The earlier you fire him, the better chance for the next manager to turn it around. However, my thinking is that he has already blown 25 points, and he is in the best position to turn shit around(at least in theory). BUT if you do fire him, you would have been better off hiring him now.

[Jack]

And our season would be done and it won't even be the halfway mark.

Nobody sees a problem with this?

If we fire him now and bring a new guy in tomorrow, do we suddenly become a winning football team? Or do we get our defense (which has been a disaster) together now that our main players are back and healthy. Do we get Koev in better shape and scoring, which he came very close to doing twice on Saturday? I dunno, man. Winter hasn't been phenomenal by any stretch, but at the same time, I just don't see what changing him now is going to fix. It seems more like doing something for the sake of doing something.

Nobody sees a problem with that?

[jabbronies]

And our season would be done and it won't even be the halfway mark.

Nobody sees a problem with this?

Do you think a manager can come in right now and turn things around in 4-5 games? Seriously consider what you are saying before answering:

- New manager will need to evaluate what we have (at least 2 games) then see where changes need to take place
- Players may need to change their style of play (not going to happen after 4-5 games)

those two factors alone say to me that 4-5 games isn't a game changer right now as to whether or not we fire Winter and turn this team around before it's too late.

That Toronto mentality of "do it now or else it's too late" doesn't work. If we are saying this, then it's already too late and we should consider the season to be done and over with. Stop watching the games, sell your tickets to any sucker who'll buy them because there is no point in having faith anymore until someone new comes in.

[Waggy]

And his past 3 stints have been with American Somoa?? (Ranked lower than Canada)
US-u20 (got fired)
Chivas (missed the playoffs)

Sure he's got some credentials from an Era of US soccer that is now considered "outdated" and "irrelevant"
I'd say his '07 and '09 U-20 wins are the most relevant to what football in the US is all about now.

With that being said, is bringing in someone to coach a senior team who's only really had success with youth teams the best solution?

Uhhhhhhhh.... haha

1.5 years isn't really long enough to evaluate a manager, but this is pro sports and if we start the season 1-7-2 or something, and the sea of red seats in BMO continues to grow, you can be damn sure MLSE will make a move. They are in the business of making money. Like Ensco said in another thread, they DO try to win. They're just bad at it. Winning is good for business. Losing is bad. And for TFC, if it's near the bottom of the table at the end of this season it could be crippling for the future of the franchise. They'll do everything in their power to try and make sure that doesn't happen. Hopefully a few good showings in the next month turns everything around and we can look back and laugh at how we questioned Winter

[Jack]

And Roogsy, I share your frustration. I want something to happen. I want to smash something. I watch this team play football and lose and I get a sick feeling in my stomach. The Montreal game was beyond it for me, I had to leave the room and turn it off. The Chivas game didn't feel the same. It was frustrating as hell, but man, their keeper came up huge, but I didn't feel quite so gutted after that game. I felt like there was a light at the end of the sewage pipe.

I'm not optimistic, but at this point, I think firing Winter is raising the white flag on this season.

[jabbronies]

With that being said, is bringing in someone to coach a senior team who's only really had success with youth teams the best solution?

Uhhhhhhhh.... haha

Never said I agreed with it to begin with, but now that we are here and are clearly in the mindset that we should create our own proven senior team manager, Do we start the process again?

1.5 years isn't really long enough to evaluate a manager, but this is pro sports and if we start the season 1-7-2 or something, and the sea of red seats in BMO continues to grow, you can be damn sure MLSE will make a move. They are in the business of making money. Like Ensco said in another thread, they DO try to win. They're just bad at it. Winning is good for business. Losing is bad. And for TFC, if it's near the bottom of the table at the end of this season it could be crippling for the future of the franchise. They'll do everything in their power to try and make sure that doesn't happen. Hopefully a few good showings in the next month turns everything around and we can look back and laugh at how we questioned Winter

Empty seats at BMO are not as bad as people think. Remember, most of those empty seats are already paid for.
But seriously, TFC have never been winners and they still make money to this day.

in 2011 Columbus crew lost 13 games and still got into the playoffs. The redBulls only won 10 and got in.
1-7-2 unfortunately doesn't take us out of the playoff picture, just makes it harder to get there.

I[m not good with the maths but can someone figure out what 48 points is equal to (w-l-t)? That'll get us into the playoffs.

[Waggy]

Never said I agreed with it to begin with, but now that we are here and are clearly in the mindset that we should create our own proven senior team manager, Do we start the process again?



Empty seats at BMO are not as bad as people think. Remember, most of those empty seats are already paid for.
But seriously, TFC have never been winners and they still make money to this day.

in 2011 Columbus crew lost 13 games and still got into the playoffs. The redBulls only won 10 and got in.
1-7-2 unfortunately doesn't take us out of the playoff picture, just makes it harder to get there.

I[m not good with the maths but can someone figure out what 48 points is equal to (w-l-t)? That'll get us into the playoffs.

The empty seats are paid for for this season, but MLSE would have to be SHITTING themselves at the thought of next.

Uh, well, 13 wins and 9 draws would get us there. Or 12/12, 11/15 etc. Realistically, of our 29 remaining games we need to be winning 1 in 3 games or so and drawing 1 in 3 as well. So we can lose outright once in every 3 games or so. Well. I immediately regret doing that math.

(and agree with you on winter, just found that line funny)

[Roogsy]

If we fire him now and bring a new guy in tomorrow, do we suddenly become a winning football team? Or do we get our defense (which has been a disaster) together now that our main players are back and healthy. Do we get Koev in better shape and scoring, which he came very close to doing twice on Saturday? I dunno, man. Winter hasn't been phenomenal by any stretch, but at the same time, I just don't see what changing him now is going to fix. It seems more like doing something for the sake of doing something.

Nobody sees a problem with that?

My preference is that he be gone now, but I don't mind giving him 5 more games to see if we can get back on track. My problem is more with the seemingly apathetic response to people willing to write off this year. What I wish I saw was "If he is not back on track in 5 games I want him gone!". Instead, it's more of a "meh...he will be gone anyways" kind of reaction that gets me.

It's inline with my biggest pet peeve of Toronto fans...the apparent lack of demands for performance. We only demand it after the fact, when our seasons are written off instead of fighting for it during the season.

Winter should be getting a message NOW that results have to come immediately. Is he getting any pressure from fans? Maybe 1 or 2 Roogsy types here and there but for the most part you get these poll results where people are like "Hey! I don't have confidence this guy can lead us anywhere and I will ignore his record and his results and keep supporting him because he's the guy that happens to be standing in the spot of the person I am supposed to be cheering on and I don't want to look for a new guy!" And MLSE needs to start NOW to figure out if this thing goes further south, that they are prepared with a plan in place to not only stop the bleeding at this friggin' club but to really, truly get it on track.

Supporters are supposed to demand the best of their club. We don't. We shrug our shoulders and leave it in the hands of the suits. We should be demanding that MLSE expect performance from it's managers and if not that they be scouring the planet for the next Schmidt, Arena, Mourinho, Ferguson whoever!!! Instead our reaction is "better the devil you know!". Please...shoot me in the head.

I will tell you what is going to happen Jack. The same bullshit that happened to bring in Winter. If we fail to make playoffs again, Winter will be gone at the end of the season. It will take a month for MLSE, who happens to be in the middle of a shakeup/sale to figure out their little piece of shit soccer team that generates peanuts for them only really has 3 months of off-season and needs someone to hire a new manager ASAP. They will hire "consultants" again, talk to the league and then rush to hire a new manager who will be appointed sometime in early January....again giving rope to those who will be buying into "you need a gazillion months to get your team together and he only came in January!" and we will be back in the vicious circle of failing to do our due diligence, failing to get the best (which was promised to us) and then hoping we got lucky. In the meantime, we'd be heading into year 7, (SEVEN!) of no playoffs and quite frankly, in danger this year of not winning the NCC, meaning no CCL. I doubt mother nature will be doing us any favours this year in the NCC. That sounds like a "once in a lifetime" kind of thing she did for us.

Think I am wrong? Jack...they fired Mo and Preki in September. SEPTEMBER!!! They didn't make a decision to hire Klinnsman until what...November? December? And Winter was hired in January??? THAT'S FOUR MONTHS!!! FOUR MONTHS TO GET US A GUY WHO HAS A COMBINED 6 WINS IN 39 LEAGUE GAMES!!! 15 WINS in 55 GAMES IN ALL COMPETITIONS! ARGH!!!

To get back in the playoff hunt, we now have to win 12 of the next 29 games. Essentially doubling our best win production ratio despite the fact that this best winning ratio with Winter includes 2 wins against FC Edmonton, 2 vs Real Esteli and 1 vs Tauro FC. Do you see it happening?

[Pookie]

I won't repost the full text of my blog here but I'm coming to the conclusion that Winter is the right man for a long term turnaround but short term...? (link: http://www.sportsnet.ca/fanfuel/2012...on_winter_mls/ )

Short term, when you rely on players coming from the MLS' quota system and TFC-Academy which as of today, is mostly filled with hardworking kids that were unfortunate to have the Ontario Soccer Association overseeing their technical development. For a system that relies on technical skill, it seems like a long shot to think that our current roster players (and limited movement on international recruiting) can bring that level to where it needs to be.

I can't recall who said it last year but there was a question regarding the 4-3-3 and whether it made sense to implement it now or work on it behind the scenes over a longer term and gradually change the style of play. It was dismissed at the time, by folks including myself, but now that you look at the results and the reality of the situation and whoever said it might have been on to something.

Perhaps what is needed is for Winter to oversee everything but the first team.

Or conversely, employ "Total Football" in the Academy but adopt a different style of play for the short term. Sort of like playing a man down. It's not ideal but you adjust to the situation you have and give yourself the best chance for a result. Gradually, he can begin to introduce it to the first team.

[Waggy]

The other problem with any serious changes right now- until the ownership transaction is completed, there really is no owner. If you're Mariner (or Anselmi, whoever would be making the decision on Winter), do you make a decision and bring in a new person before the new owners take over? That seems like it'd require more balls than MLSE execs tend to possess.

[Jack]

@Roogsy

I don't disagree with anything you say. I also think that they should be putting pressure on Winter and, if he doesn't turn this thing around in the next five games, he should be fired. I don't think they know their asses from a hole in the ground, so we're just going to get more of the same incompetence. The problems at this organization go beyond Winter. He's more of a symptom and yes, it's enough to make me tear my hair out.

Or stop caring.

[tfcleeds]

Firing Winter now does nothing - give him at least until the end of the season. As if our club wasn't enough of a revolving door already for players, managers, etc. Now if it is decided that Winter must eventually get the sack, the only acceptable option will be to bring in someone with successful MLS experience. A Sigi Schmidt. A Jason Kreis. Somebody of that nature. Enough of TFC being a testing ground for unproven managers in this league.

[Beach_Red]

Roogsy, here's what's going to happen: Frings comes back and the team wins a few games against other non-playoff teams, starting this week with Chicago (maybe a couple of very emotional wins against top teams). They'll get into contention and flirt with a playoff spot right down to the end of the season and Winter will stay on for next season - the last one on his contract. If the team is in a playoff position halfway through next season he'll get an extension but if they aren't he'll get fired in September and Danny Dichio will take over.

It will all be geared around season ticket renewals and selling hope for next season - it's always about next season.

[jabbronies]

Firing Winter now does nothing - give him at least until the end of the season. As if our club wasn't enough of a revolving door already for players, managers, etc. Now if it is decided that Winter must eventually get the sack, the only acceptable option will be to bring in someone with successful MLS experience. A Sigi Schmidt. A Jason Kreis. Somebody of that nature. Enough of TFC being a testing ground for unproven managers in this league.

Funny you mention "unprovem managers" and "Jason Kreis" in the same sentence.
Funny because he was unproven manager who didn't make the playoffs in his first year, qualified in his second (1-3-1 to start the season) then only after his third year did he win the MLS cup.

I agree with you, give him to the end of the season and have someone lined up if we don't make the playoffs who can step in and continue where he left off instead of rebuilding.