Keep Winter or Scrap Him?

[Chevy]

This whole thread says more about this board than about our team. For the last half of last season and the CCL run at the beginning of this one, many of these people seemed to disappear. Now the team is on a bad run, and It's LIKE OLD HOME DAY AROUND HERE.

It seems like some people would rather the team lose under Winter for the sole purpose of maintaining their fragile, ultra-competitive egos. But let's look at a few facts here:

* As oldtimer noted, without one of their clutch players, LA is shit. Not TFC shit, but we've jot JDG (signed by MO, not the current guys) and not Donovan or Beckham.

* John Spencer is generally regarded as a talented coach and a big part of why Houston won two titles under Kinnear, and his Portland team has lost four in a row. Is he suddenly shit, too? His DP striker is scoring goals and they're still losing.

* Frank Yallop has been awful for four straight years in San Jose. This year, he has the pieces together. Was he shit then but isn't shit now? How does that work exactly?

* In three of the five losses we outchanced the other team. That has NEVER happened with any of our past crappy teams, all of which were crappier than this one, regardless of the record poor start.

Look, people need time to hang themselves. Mo got five years and was shit the whooooole time.

Is Winter's team shit? Looked pretty good against LA, and in the first Santos game. So, apparently not all the time.

For the first time, TFC isn't dreadful to watch. Lord, It's not good. But it's not dreadful. So having a system does have some payoff. We also have youth coming up and actually being used (although too much in Morgan's case).

Conflating this start into complete ineptitude is just argumentatively ignoring the facts. We're not as good as we should be, but we don't deserve to be 0-5, either. We've outchanced three of the five teams we've lost to.

We have serious issues. Our passing the other day clocked in at 69% and so we only had 43% of the ball, despite creating the better chances. Our centre midfield is very weak, especially without frings.

On the other hand, Cann looked good, commanding even. He made Aceval look a little better (although he still had four major gaffes, by my count, and shouldn't be starting.)

We may have an 0-5 start, but the facts don't suggest we have an 0-5 team, or a coach who deserves only 18 months to turn around Mo's five-year mess. He at least should get the season.

Very well said. One of the few balanced and objective posts in this thread (mine included, for obvious reasons)

[Waggy]

what have we seen from winter? Um, the TFC that played LA, Dallas and Santos was by FAR the best TFC we've ever seen. The trick is getting that consistently. But those performances were MILES ahead of the next best game we've ever played. I don't even know what it'd be. The Montreal Miracle was good, but it was also against the reserves/academy of a D2 team. We've also seen 5 games where we could NOT score, couldn't keep possession and looked to be out tactician-ed. Thus the debate about which is the real Winter (and real TFC), and the conclusion most people seem to have come to to which is seeing 4 or 5 more games before making any real judgements

And re Harden making safe passes, what sort of passes would you prefer a back to play? lol,

[whyalwaysme11]

My wife, who couldn't care less about football gave me a bit of a pep-talk today. She said 'so what if TFC lose, you get to go to soccer games with your son who loves them and goes nuts for them'

And you know what, she is right. Everything after that is gravy for me.

I love soccer, I think the only 'bad' game I saw TFC play this season was in Montreal and teams have off games.

How electric was the SL game here? I thought the stadium was going to blow up when we scored. Those are the moments we live for.

Through thick and thin, Toronto Til I Die!

Oh, and yes, I AM a fucking cheerleader so go fuck yourselves if you actually think that is a bad thing or derogatory in ANY way, I will cheer in the rain, snow, scorching heat and wind-bitten cold.

good stuff sky.
although i dont think the winter thing should even be an issue right now its nice to see that the majority of people who voted want him to stay

[rocker]

I'm in the "stick with Winter for the whole season" camp. We've had new coaches every single year and that kind of change doesn't help at all. I'd rather see Winter develop, even if it means growing pains, rather than start all over again with somebody new. The only guy who is available and knows the league is Steve Nicol, but he had some shitty seasons before getting fired -- not a slam dunk coach either (did he have problems in the "new MLS"?).

Honestly the play going forward is very good at times, much better than anything we saw in the Mo Johnston era (except for maybe when Ronnie O'Brien was hot and Dichio was on form). I mean it's night and day compared to the Preki year. Preki's players never looked like they could even get a chance on goal unless it was some ugly scramble. At least we're seeing glimpses of the beautiful game -- sometimes for long stretches. One team that's reaping the benefit of sticking with a guy who has a 'new' kind of plan for an MLS team is Kansas City. They brought in Peter Vermes a loooong time ago. The team sucked, and he had to fire the coach he hired -- and take over as head coach -- before years later they are very good. Kansas City didn't have this team's fan base or media attention, so he could pretty much work anonymously. I'm *hoping* that kind of patience will work with Winter.

[ArmenJBX]

Even if Winter goes, we must keep in mind that we're a 4-3-3 teams. We have only enough players to play in a 4-3-3. We don't have the kind of midfielders for a 4-2-2 or a 4-1-2-1-2.

So, if Winter goes, we're playing the same game. Which means, the only reason Winter should leave is if the players have lost confidence in him, which they clearly have not. I can attest to this.

Winter's building this philosophy from ground up. We're gonna be playing this system for a long time, with Rongen applying it to over 20 different clubs in Ontario along with his academy. This city is a 4-3-3 city now, so regardless of who we get, this is how we're going to play.

[Oldtimer]

Rohan Ricketts is in town... replace Winter and make him the new coach...

[Pookie]

One of the things not mentioned yet about Winter is his contribution to retaining and recruiting players. Which isn't easy given the reputation surrounding this club.

Saying that, not every signing will be spectacular. But in the offseason, the culture he created here was good enough to convince Eckersley and Plata to resign. When is the last time we had players wanting to resign? Cann had a hold out and we haven't heard anything from him but that he is working hard to get back into the line up. A case of both sides moving past a difficult situation.

It is a refreshing change from all the outgoing crap that we have read over the years. Of course, not everyone might love what he has created but clearly, for those payers, Winter's reputation and their belief in what he is building were enough to keep them in what has been the MLS' worst franchise.

He helped recruit both Frings and Koevermans. Both players with options. Both have delivered. Frings has been Frings and when Winter has had to adjust his Backline (which apparently he is incapable of adjusting) Frings has jumped in with both feet. Koevermans hasn't had the start he wanted but that doesn't change the fact that he has 9 goals in 15 games. Clearly, both signings have delivered which is more than we can say for any of our DPs over our short history.

These are all overlooked aspects of team building which speak to Winter's ability to lead. I believe he is the guy for the long term. I'm not sure that a short term fix is something he can deliver given roster quotas and Canadian talent deficits. Definitely not worth throwing away.

[19Barrett19]

wow! Typical Toronto fans.
Fire someone right now is the wrong move. I believe this team will win a lot of games and score a lot of goals. Gentalmen realize this harden is not in our starting 11 anymore that will make a big differance. Not only that Frings is going to play is the midfield wichita is a + as well. It's pretty clear that JDG is shit but plays a lot better with Frings beside him. Once JDG is gone we can bring in another piece to our squad. We have waited for a long time but in all honesty JDG belongs to Mo Jonston not winter and mariner I think if Rey had the choice he would be gone, ie benched last game! Besides when we win 3-0 against Chicago on sat everyone will jump On this band wagon again. I believe in this team and the recent struggles are bad luck, missing our best player, and harden. So relax and the wins will come and In bunches. Chill you impatiant Torontonias!

[TOBOR !]

wow! Typical Toronto fans.Fire someone right now is the wrong move. I believe this team will win a lot of games and score a lot of goals. Gentalmen realize this harden is not in our starting 11 anymore that will make a big differance. Not only that Frings is going to play is the midfield wichita is a + as well. It's pretty clear that JDG is shit but plays a lot better with Frings beside him. Once JDG is gone we can bring in another piece to our squad. We have waited for a long time but in all honesty JDG belongs to Mo Jonston not winter and mariner I think if Rey had the choice he would be gone, ie benched last game! Besides when we win 3-0 against Chicago on sat everyone will jump On this band wagon again. I believe in this team and the recent struggles are bad luck, missing our best player, and harden. So relax and the wins will come and In bunches. Chill you impatiant Torontonias!

^ my spam filters sent your post to my junk folder so I didn't see it. Sorry.

[koryo]

Get rid of him.

He sold a vision of what he would achieve and hasn't delivered. The starting XI is largely his own now, so the team's abject start to this season falls squarely on his shoulders.

As to why it's failing I can only guess, but it is failing. A team that makes schoolboy mistakes week-in, week-out is a team that won't play for it's manager - whatever the reason.

Get rid.*

* post something along the lines of my opinion doesn't count because I don't go to games any more within the next five minutes and I beat the Vegas odds.

[Fort York Redcoat]

Get rid of him.

He sold a vision of what he would achieve and hasn't delivered. The starting XI is largely his own now, so the team's abject start to this season falls squarely on his shoulders.

As to why it's failing I can only guess, but it is failing. A team that makes schoolboy mistakes week-in, week-out is a team that won't play for it's manager - whatever the reason.

Get rid.*

* post something along the lines of my opinion doesn't count because I don't go to games any more within the next five minutes and I beat the Vegas odds.

YOUROPINIONDOESN'TMATTERBECAUSEYOUDONTGOTOGAMES!!!

Did I make it in time? Sorry, mate just wanted you to win that money for the new baby fund!

Damnit. Just over by a minute. Shoulda skipped the emoticon. Your opinion counts whether I agree with it or not, J.

[TOBOR !]

Koryo - your post makes me think of comparing fast food to fine dining. You crave fine dining, but you want it served to you straight away, without having to wait. You also have a taste for the finest ingredients, but aren't prepared to pay for them. You want it now and you want it cheap, and it better be good or else you'll go across the street.

[Pookie]

@ roogsy, not every post about that player is intended as a private message to you. It was noted that some folks pick their spots when it comes to Winter. I used that player is another example and I'm sure if he ever regains his form we'll see lots of examples of this "spot picking". Some of these threads, believe it or not, might not actually be started by you.

As for running and hiding, come on... what is this grade school? When have I ever not engaged you on that subject?

As for Winter, he gets my support if the goal is a long term turnaround and if he is moved out in favour of short term results, I dare say it would be a mistake to remove him from the organization completely.

Eckersley, Plata (re-signings), Frings, Koevermans are all here on this day because of him despite our record. That says a lot about his ability to impact the culture of this team and earning the trust and respect of players. Something seriously lacking since day 1 here.

[19Barrett19]

^ my spam filters sent your post to my junk folder so I didn't see it. Sorry.

Spam is mike umlmers bull shit he writes on maple leafs websit. Say it ain't so that Toronto sports fans and writers are quick to jump to conclusions. BTW Saturady you'll be on that band wagon I was talking about.
TFC 4 life!

[TOBOR !]

@ 19Barrett19 : Sorry, mate. It's happened again.

[19Barrett19]

@ roogsy, not every post about that player is intended as a private message to you. It was noted that some folks pick their spots when it comes to Winter. I used that player is another example and I'm sure if he ever regains his form we'll see lots of examples of this "spot picking". Some of these threads, believe it or not, might not actually be started by you.

As for running and hiding, come on... what is this grade school? When have I ever not engaged you on that subject?

As for Winter, he gets my support if the goal is a long term turnaround and if he is moved out in favour of short term results, I dare say it would be a mistake to remove him from the organization completely.

Eckersley, Plata (re-signings), Frings, Koevermans are all here on this day because of him despite our record. That says a lot about his ability to impact the culture of this team and earning the trust and respect of players. Something seriously lacking since day 1 here.

Amen.

[Roogsy]

As for Winter, he gets my support if the goal is a long term turnaround and if he is moved out in favour of short term results, I dare say it would be a mistake to remove him from the organization completely.

The question none of you have answered however is how do you know that the long-term turnaround will be successful? You have faith in his long-term plan even in though in the short-term he has been shit? HOw does that make sense? When I want to lose weight through diet and exercise, I don't consider my waist size increasing as being a good indication that "things are on track". In what world does it make sense to take a pile of steaming shit results and say "Look! Proof we're on the right track! The future looks bright!"

This is shades of Mo. "He needs time"..."he's on the right track"..."I believe in him"...those are things that were all heard at the beginning of Mo's tenure, giving him the slack and time he needed to properly fuck over this club. Winter states it's a long-term rebuild and so we accept short term underperformance because the plan is actually long-term? That's insane. And exactly what Mo did. The RIGHT thing to do is to have a long-term plan instead and measure the progress of that long-term plan with short-term benchmarks and goals. The CCL was a good benchmark to reach, but the overall record in futility has wiped out any benefits of that run by exposing the club as still having many of the failings that it had before he arrived, meaning we are no further ahead. After a year and a half? Really?

Now, I don't think Winter is in the same level of incompetence as Mo, but I don't think he's the right man for the job. You guys act like despite his poor record over FIFTY FIVE games, he still needs more time. Why is 55 games not enough of a sample size to give us all an indication of what his performance will be like? What tells you that the next 55 games are going to be substantially different than the first 55 games? How many games are needed? The fact that he doubled the cost of the roster pushing TFC's costs to the top group in the MLS and still getting awful results doesn't give people a clue?

Nobody quantifies how to measure Winter's performance. All we get from Winter apologists is "he needs more time". Exactly the same error made with Mo Johnston. And then when we wind up with another steaming pile of shits as results, we wonder why?

Last season when people were hating on me for ragging on Winter, I was told, wait till next year, if by halfway in the season he's not getting the job done, he should be gone. Now that it looks like by the halfway mark we are indeed going to have a shit record, people are extending that to the end of the season in the hope that the longshot may happen and we get in the playoffs. And now, the rationalizations have gotten worse. Since playoffs this year are now starting to look like a longshot, I am seeing more and more "he needs next year too". It's driving me crazy how people fall right back into the same pattern as the Mo era and it isn't obvious to them. The rationalizations are also unbelievable. The starting XI is now composed completely of this management's selection. No team has ever had the turnover Toronto has had in a year. Team's have rebuilt with half the turnover we've had. There is no logical way anyone can assert that Winter has had a complete turnover and this current team has no influence from previous squads. The ONLY carry-over is an overpriced JDG which still should be hung on their necks because they had the opportunity to get rid of him and did not. But what do people do? Blame the team's entire lack of performance on JDG. Absolutely ridiculous. I am in absolute shock that people are still pulling the "he is still hamstrung with players from previous management" excuse. It's insane.

There's an unwritten practice in stock market trading that applies here. You don't chase a trade. Lose money on a trade, book your losses, move on and make them up elsewhere. Don't wait for an investment to come back from a loss before you decide to get out. You will wind up with Nortel. That's what you guys are doing here. You are waiting for Nortel to jump back up to $100 a share and all you will wind up is with a bankrupt company worth zero. All because you weren't willing to cut your losses even when the performance numbers were staring at you right in the face.

Azerban (I think) put up a good Wiki link you all should read and hopefully realize you fall right in that category.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs

Einstein said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results. It's possible Einstein might consider applying that definition here.

[trane]

I am not anti-Winter, and I am not for firing him right now. However, I have to agree with Roogsy giving him anything more that a few more game to turn it around, is make no sense. He is not going to become SAF, Ancellotti or Lippi if he cannot squeeze out some point in the immediate future.

[BHTC Mike]

what have we seen from winter? Um, the TFC that played LA, Dallas and Santos was by FAR the best TFC we've ever seen. The trick is getting that consistently. But those performances were MILES ahead of the next best game we've ever played. I don't even know what it'd be

Has our comprehensive home win again Cruz Azul under Preki been erased from history in the rush to celebrate the Dutch attacking 4-3-3? Crushing a tired and disinterested Dallas is arguable but beating LA 2-1 in a game where they blew numerous chances and had a possibly legitimate opening goal called back is "MILES ahead" of that performance? What about the epic 2-2 away draw that saw us through the CCL qualifying stage in 2010? Against a good Motagua side in a hostile Central American environment that was considered "historic" at the time too. TFC has always had great MOMENTS; moments don't make a successful season though.

Being fair to Winter we did have a great game in Columbus too. But that highlights another problem: under Winter we've only ever had ONE great home victory. Santos at home was an epic night and a great performance but still only a draw. The only really memorable WIN at home was the V-Cup final last year. It's not entirely reflective of his entire time in charge but that has to colour the perceptions of the fan base.

[Phil]

I need more time personally to see if this is working or not. The stats are not good, but there are some things that don't show up on paper (or they do, I just don't look for them).

I thought the Santos draw at home was the best game I have seen them play. They could lose games like that and I would be happy if they showed that kind of commitment to one another.

I am disturbed by the team completly missing that same drive right now and its is sounding the alarm bells big time. For me, pulling the parachute now on Winter would be writing this season off completely given the transfer window is now closed.

[TFC Tifoso]

how much of TFC's failure so far can be the responsibility of Mariner?....it is something that deserves some thought, even moreso with the word of this apparent "rift" between the two.....

I mean, Winter came here to play his style 4-3-3, that's not changing now or as long as he's here.....

the failure seems to be in many of the players who were acquired to play in this system and have shown they cannot or are having trouble.....

other teams have played well in MLS recently using posession based tactics, so it shows that something like a 4-3-3 CAN work in this league......its a matter of finding the players to do it properly and how much of that is Winter's responsibility?.....

[Pookie]

Investments are funny. Apple was nearly bankrupt and those that held on for the long term are doing quite well.

[Roogsy]

I need more time personally to see if this is working or not. The stats are not good, but there are some things that don't show up on paper (or they do, I just don't look for them).

I thought the Santos draw at home was the best game I have seen them play. They could lose games like that and I would be happy if they showed that kind of commitment to one another.

I am disturbed by the team completly missing that same drive right now and its is sounding the alarm bells big time. For me, pulling the parachute now on Winter would be writing this season off completely given the transfer window is now closed.

If you were my client, and you walked into my office with Nortel certificates in hand and told me "If I sell now, I would be booking my losses on this trade (aka "writing this season off completely" in your words). I'd rather wait to see if the price goes up again." What would be a reasonable response on my part? You don't have to be an expert in investing to know what a reasonable strategy would be. Do things change because you had also booked losses in Bre-X and Corel because you took the exact same stand and used the same strategy but this time, "it will be different"? Does there not come a point where we learn from our lessons?

All I know is if you walked into my office with Nortel certificates, there is only one response I would have given you. Looking at the probabilities of Nortel going back up, the best thing for you to do is to sell. And it would have been the right advice to give. If your decision was to keep the stock and then lose even more money...well...then that is all on you.

That is where we are here. People would like to think they have learned from the Mo era, but if we're making the exact same mistake, how can we say we have actually learned from our errors? I don't think we have. For this reason alone, Tom Anselmi should be gone. And this is a prime example that can be shown for generations to come as to why Championships don't come to Toronto. Championships go to teams that make the right moves. If we don't make the right moves, why should we expect to have success? Much like making the wrong moves in investments, you can't sit there and then say "we must have bad luck".

[Roogsy]

Investments are funny. Apple was nearly bankrupt and those that held on for the long term are doing quite well.

So your suggestion for investment advice is to look for the one-off, once in a lifetime example instead of a balanced prudent approach? To you, trying to capture lightning in a bottle is the right approach to take? You think investing by the exception and not the rule will work out for you?

My father in law had a million dollar portfolio that he managed on his own and never took my advice. He was an aggressive man and wanted to take chances. Bet on the long-shots as you seem to recommend. Loved technology stocks. I bet you he'd sit there and point to Apple and think, "Hey! This will work!"







He died of cancer at 55, and left my mother-in-law with tax bills and no money and now I have to take care of her.

There are consequences that come from not learning from the lessons life throws our way. Some consequences in life are not our fault. Others fall directly at our feet.

[jabbronies]

@roogsy

You have to take into consideration of those 55 games, how many of them were with the players he chose?
The clock for me started after the mass exodus overhaul last season. Much less than 55 games IMO.

As for the future, look at the young players he (Winter, DeClerk, Mariner) is bringing in or keeping on - Plata, Avila, Silva, Morgan, Henry, Eckersley, Cordon, Stinson . That is our future.
Look at the veterans he is bringing in or keeping on - Frings, Kovermans, Cann. Those are the players our young guys need to aspire to.
Look at the lynchpin players he is bringing in or keeping on - Johnson, Soolsma, Kocic. Players you feel more than comfortable having on the pitch at all times.

I'm happy with this so far and I think a lot of other people see the potential this lineup has. Not sure what others are so uppity about? Sure they are making mistakes, but 2 out of the 3 veteran leaders have not been around to calm the nerves. Things are going to change over the next 2-3 games, trust me. (hopfully)

[ExiledRed]

hahahahahahahaha

Apple didnt do any housecleaning or adapt its vision at all!

Apple kept flogging an outdated technology with an incompetent CEO all the way to the top of the entertainment industry!

This is too funny..... you guys..

First Winter is the next SAF, on the basis that SAF had a bad start too.

Now TFC is Apple.

I cant stop fucking laughing, Pookie you are hilarious man, thankyou for this.

[Roogsy]

@roogsy

You have to take into consideration of those 55 games, how many of them were with the players he chose?
The clock for me started after the mass exodus overhaul last season. Much less than 55 games IMO.

As for the future, look at the young players he (Winter, DeClerk, Mariner) is bringing in or keeping on - Plata, Avila, Silva, Morgan, Henry, Eckersley, Cordon, Stinson . That is our future.
Look at the veterans he is bringing in or keeping on - Frings, Kovermans, Cann. Those are the players our young guys need to aspire to.
Look at the lynchpin players he is bringing in or keeping on - Johnson, Soolsma, Kocic. Players you feel more than comfortable having on the pitch at all times.

I'm happy with this so far and I think a lot of other people see the potential this lineup has. Not sure what others are so uppity about? Sure they are making mistakes, but 2 out of the 3 veteran leaders have not been around to calm the nerves. Things are going to change over the next 2-3 games, trust me. (hopfully)

You tell me when the clock started and I will pull the numbers.

He couldn't work with previous players. He isn't getting results with these players. We're fudging the numbers trying to find the ideal time to "start the clock" when we're all missing the real point, which is that good coaches get results and make do with what they have.

With Winter, the excuses basically have come down to "he needs his ideal squad and until he gets it we'll accept poor results". So tell me Ravi...what happens if Winter never gets his "ideal" squad? Are we Real Madrid that can buy any player on the planet? Are we Barça that can fabricate world-class players by the truckload? When do the excuses stop Ravi when Winter is measured against his contemporaries who face the same and in many cases worse conditions (ie. rosters carried over from previous management, not having 3 DPs, no league MVP/Golden Boot winner) and yet grind out exponentially better results?

[TFC OZZ]

I can't believe anyone would actually consider scrapping him at this point. He's had a bad run yeah, but the last thing this club needs is more instability.

[jabbronies]

You tell me when the clock started and I will pull the numbers.

He couldn't work with previous players. He isn't getting results with these players. We're fudging the numbers trying to find the ideal time to "start the clock" when we're all missing the real point, which is that good coaches get results and make do with what they have.

With Winter, the excuses basically have come down to "he needs his ideal squad and until he gets it we'll accept poor results". So tell me Ravi...what happens if Winter never gets his "ideal" squad? Are we Real Madrid that can buy any player on the planet? Are we Barça that can fabricate world-class players by the truckload? When do the excuses stop Ravi when Winter is measured against his contemporaries who face the same and in many cases worse conditions and yet grind out exponentially better results?

End of season 2 - do we make the playoffs or not? That's when he should be judged.

Who are his contemporaries? And please don't use Sigi, Bruce Arena or other proven coaches who have just moved to a new team. Use guys who were unproven before they started and use the same time frame that we are at with Winter.

Also - use July 20th 2011 as your starting point.

[Canary10]

We need to ask firing him for what purpose?

TFC is doing things very differently. We are playing more Canadian players than American players unlike other teams in the league (including our two rivals). We have more academy signed players v. the traditional NCAA developed players. We are implementing a 4-3-3 formation that is pretty new in a league that is still predominantly 4-4-2. We have a much younger team than the average in MLS. And I believe we have the smallest team in MLS, trying to emphasize skill over size. All of this is part of the philosophy the club is trying to implement.

Winter is all wrapped up in this approach. If we reject that this is the way forward in MLS, then yeah get rid of him because he's not going to implement another way of playing. If we accept that the approach is right and that we're on edge of a sea change in MLS, then we've got to be ready for ups and downs, stops and starts because that's what change is all about. That kind of change, under ANY manager, will be a longer term project.

So what is it we are really changing? The manager or the philosophy?