a quick snapshot after 120 votes:
AVERAGE: 2.76 stars out of 5
55.2% approval rating (D)
this is hovering around his lowest rating since stepping into the coaching role for TFC
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a quick snapshot after 120 votes:
AVERAGE: 2.76 stars out of 5
55.2% approval rating (D)
this is hovering around his lowest rating since stepping into the coaching role for TFC
While it is an overly fuzzy approach, I like his prediction model.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/TorontoFC.html
Gives us a 9.4% chance of making the playoffs.
26% chance we finish last (19th), 17% chance we finish 18th, 12% chance we finish 17th, ect, ect.
Reading it the model makes sense BUT it needs more current season data. My bet is 12-15 games in it is pretty accurate.Originally Posted by brad
That said... This is soccer, where anything can happen.
We might get red hot and smoke our next 3-4 games picking up 10pts
^^Agreed. Lack of factoring injuries was the biggest shortcoming I saw - but no way to account for that really
YIKES! So there is a 55% chance we finish 17th or lower???
I "kind of agree", but not completely. It's like we are suggesting that TFC is a one player team - Frings is injured = we suck.
We have to remember that its a team sport - one player shouldn't really make THAT much difference. The injury to Frei is unfortunate, but Kocic is more than capable of playing in his place.
So, are we THAT reliant on Frings that if he is injured, then we can't play football? It should never be that way, we should be able to cope with one player missing, so I don't think its an excuse for Winter.
In a stronger league I would agree, but in the MLS - I don't. And this is not just about TFC. Nobody has real depth in this league (except maybe RSL). Lose one or two players, and the results can suffer. We are heavily reliant on Frings. But look at LA without Gonzalez as another example. What would DC's season have looked like last year if "He who shall not be named" had gotten injured shortly after arriving?
I think any team in the MLS would have their results suffer with the loss of 2-3 key players over time.
The other bit I would add - while a team should not be dependent on a single player (like we are with Frings), a DP should still make the team materially better when on the field. If that DP can be replaced by a regular MLS'er with no real impact on the results, I would say you are wasting your money on that DP (assuming marketing value is not at play).
Agreed, I think NYRB is the most comparable example. If they lost Henri and Marquez (sp?) what would they be?
I know Frei isn't a $4m player, but the team lost both the captain and vice-captain. Kocic can replace Frei in net, but he can't replace his leadership. If Frei were not injured I would bet he would have been playing every game that Frings is out because of his LEADERSHIP ability.
Agree with this completely. One player (no matter how good) can't be an excuse...
Now if we were talking the difference between first place and a few spots lower, I might agree. But playoffs / no playoffs? ... not buying it.
It ISN'T one player though, it is TWO leaders. Frei isn't the Vice-Captain for his good looks. Why wouldn't Winter have made DK or JDG or Soolsma the VC? They didn't have the leadership ability.
I don't think anyone would disagree that Frings was the marshall we needed, we DID play better because of him, not because of his talent though as so many think but because of his leadership. I would take 10 men + Frings in a wheelchair over what we have gotten so far because of leadership.
How does first place or a few spots lower vs in the playoffs or the same few spots below and out of the playoffs differ? In both cases we are talking about a few spots differently.
In our case, we are too dependent on Frings, without a doubt. But let me ask this? Why tie up the max cap hit for a single DB if you can get more or less the same results from a non-DP regular MLS player? A good DP should = more points on the board in a given season than without. If not, you are wasting cap space.
when can I rate him for apirl and may...lol
I'm thinking that this is why Thomas Rongen was brought in.... a respectable interim replacement and possible full-time coach if it works out.
I hope they give Winter the whole season though... in my mind its only fair.
Nigel Reed threw out a statistic in his article today that I had not seen before.
6 wins in 38 MLS games.
I don't care if you did have to rebuild last year, that statistic is disgusting.
If he does not have a better month in April, my rating will most definitely drop.
That is pretty appalling, he must have a great go of the next 10 games or shit is going to hit the fan.
I can agree with you somewhat on Frings leadership ... For Frei, this is the same guy who was clearly battling with Kocic to keep his sport in the starting lineup and made some glaring errors in a few games. Combine that with the rumors that were swirling that he's on the block and I don't think the coaching staff would give the same account of him being a necessity in our starting lineup.
Because if we're going to extrapolate our current situation, we are a few games from being simply bad as opposed to terrible. Saying we'd jump from non-contention to contention based on our current form is a huge stretch.
I don't disagree with the second part of what you wrote, although I'm not sure if you're advocating the DP CB or not.
Backe's NYRB sans Henry & Marquez have a winning record FYI.
Plus the form of Cooper is scaring me so far this season.
NYRB would have to lose half their first team players through injury to make them play as badly as TFC right now!
It's a point I made last year & it's one I continue to believe. The best use of a DP is not to take a shitty team and make them somewhat better than garbage. FIRST you build a competent, balanced team, THEN you add DPs as the missing piece to take them over the top. I didn't believe Winter did it last year and I still don't think he's done it. Unless someone can point to evidence that this team is capable of staying out of the bottom portion of the table without their DPs I think the evidence continues to build that management is not capable of managing MLS calibre players effectively and require the crutch of European DPs to make the team less of a joke. The problem of course is that you can't sign more than 3 DPs and expectations should be higher than "not crap" when you've maxed out these slots. But when you haven't built the rest of the team well...even 3 DPs can't cover over that and when your most effective player goes down, it provides insight into that fact. If you're paying attention that is.
Sortsclubstats is notoriously inaccurate at the start of the season. For example, 2 years ago after one month, they gave the Jays a 94% chance of making the post-season. We know how that ended.
That being said, there is a major uphill climb to make the post-season. The team will have to have a good run to make it.
LA is in the same boat. Missing one defender has put them in a terrible spot, so the difference between Champions and failure is pretty slim.
With the poor defense, none of us thought there was an MLS Cup in store this season. However, quite a few of us thought squeaking into the playoffs was likely. That's seeming less-and-less possible now, even in a weak Eastern conference.
55.2%.
I think that's also the probability of me bumping this thread in a month, two month, and three months time to see how positive it looked because of CCL. It'll be refreshing.
FORMER FULL TIME KOOL-AID DRINKER
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