these guys could be really good or really bad.
Being an investment company, I dont have alot of faith theyll be pouring money into TFC anytime soon
http://www.cp24.com/servlet/an/local.../?hub=CP24Home
MLSE potential buyer
these guys could be really good or really bad.
Being an investment company, I dont have alot of faith theyll be pouring money into TFC anytime soon
http://www.cp24.com/servlet/an/local.../?hub=CP24Home
These guys formed part of the consortium that took a run at BCE a few years ago (ultimately failed). Shrewd operators. And I wouldn't worry too much if this rumour is true, since our current owner is a financial owner as well, and not a strategic one. So at the least, I wouldn't expect things to get much worse - unless you're working in the front office and the new owners see that your gougy pricing policies are hurting the SSH numbers and merch/concession sales.
They seem to be heavily invested in media companies. Sooo...they might be positioning themselves to be part of the often rumored Rogers deal. Another possibility could be that they want to do something in terms of dedicated Leafs channel like a lot of other major teams are doing in North America.
Either way, TFC gets listed in the prospectus as "Miscellaneous Holdings."
There already is a dedicated Leafs channel.Originally Posted by Detroit_TFC
And a dedicated Raptors Channel.
Ok. The media angle still must be at the core of their interest, so it might be to leverage what MLSE has now.
And a soccer channel.
I think there is a belief that you could spin the three into one channel that could compete directly with TSN and Sportsnet, in Ontario at least.
I haven't bought one of these channels. And most likely never will.
Newer article in the G&M about this, saying purchase by this group seems unlikely:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle2238025/
Basically, the purchase price that Teachers want is (supposedly) too high on purely rational criteria, due to an "ego premium." Purchase by a financial company such as Providence is (supposdely) therefore not likely, as it would be hard to justify that purchase price to their clients/shareholders.
Unless, as explained in the original Star article (http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/...ple-leafs?bn=1) there's some significant unrealized value for a media company.
Also interesting that nobody is noticing local activity wrt. bids for MLSE, so maybe nothing is happening with Rogers these days...?
The ongoing NBA labour dispute, and upcoming issues for the NHL, must be affecting things.
They are simply asking for too much money. That's why its not selling.
I don't know for certain, but based on the way things are going for the Leafs, Raptors and TFC the revenues have levelled off. So its tough to sell it to someone that hopes they can increase revenues.
still think you could see a suprise bidder (Shaw Media)
outside of showing the pga on global from time to time, there reach into the sports market is pitiful; they would probably LOVE to get something in the sports market and MLSE would be a major coup
Reading Grant Wahl's interview with The Don reminded me where I had heard the name Providence Equity before. They are the group rumored to be purchasing 25% of Soccer United Marketing.
BTW Garber said they can't confirm or deny that they were talking to people about a piece of SUM but would have more to say about this in the near future.
If they get a piece of SUM and control of TFC, that would insert them in a big way into North American soccer.
I think the Raptors are a major problem. I know so many ex SSHs there. That is a serious dumpster fire, and it is probably having a real impact on valuation.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
Another new article in the G&M about Providence & their potential interest in MLSE:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle2242272/
So it seems this private equity firm already has various ties to Teachers, BCE, etc. They apparently took a look at the idea of bidding for MLSE, and that may have been one of the times Gretzky was approached -- i.e., to act as a Canadian figurehead for the purchase by a US company.
However, it seems the idea is dead, and Providence is not at all interested in putting in a bid. Again, ties in with what we've heard from the Gretzky camp -- that there was some interest/talk, but that that's all over & there's nothing happening in that direction.
What this tells you is that this company is waay overpriced, and not by just a little. Now, mind you, they could still find some sucker to pay the asking price, but that doesn't mean it's an accurate market price. This company has its head stuck up its own ass its truly pathetic.
^ Yeah, would have to agree. If the pension fund is really serious about divesting, they're going to have to reduce the price. But they aren't, and they won't.
Exactly. Then in all honesty the thing is realistically not for sale. never has been. I understand one has an asking price, but when the money is on the table you come down. The teachers apparently have no intention of doing so.
This sale process is beyond pathetic. Its been a year now since its on the block, and we've only heard, what, 2-4 organization inquiry about it. There is no talk of serious looks at the books or potential offers. First rule in business when selling is you have to leave something on the bone so the new owner can have at least a hope of making some money. Reality is the teachers share is not worth anything more then 1.2B, probably lot less, and not the 1.5B they want.
I wouldn't go that far. When you're truly interest in selling any item, you figure out what you think it's worth and a premium to it because it will be negotiated down. If you're only trying to get feelers, you put a huge premium on it and if someone bites, you see how much you can sucker out of them.
I'm not looking to get rid of my '98 turdbox of a car. If someone came up and asked me what it would cost to take it off my hands, I'd quote them double what I think its worth because i don't need to sell it. If they want to buy it for that price, yippee!! I'm coming out ahead either way.
If I was trying to sell it proactively, I'd price it closer to what the market value is to ensure I could sell it.
On another note, the OTPP has over $100B in net assets. The media is reporting that the asking price for MLSE is approximately $2B. There isn't a lot of money tied up in MLSE, and no need to liquidate it quickly, It's generating a good amount of cash in the meantime.
Are you advertising that your car is for sale? Nope.
The teachers are openly advertising and looking for a buyer.
Any business at any point in time is for sale, whether advertised or not. Microsoft is for sale even, or Apple, or whatever, it's just if the buyer is willing to pay that price. However these companies are not advertising they want out as the teachers pension is. And given its over a year that they are advertising to sell their interest in the company, i would hazard to say that what they are asking for is well over what it is worth. Even if it was in the ballpark, don't you think we would hear of ongoing negotiations of some sort. Every person or company that we hear was/is interested is dead talking to MLSE after the first round of talks. The supposed interested parties barely even kick the tires and they walk away seeing no value in it.
That's for the whole thing. The teachers are looking for $1.5B for their share.
Time to turn our attention to the Peddie replacement/Anselmi watch. Peddie leaves end of year.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
MLSE's valuation in the eyes of teachers is overly optimistic IMO. They want synergy value for all the properties together and the "Ego premium" involved in owning a major sports property like the leafs.
Well guess what guys? You're not going to get both from one buyer. There is NOBODY out there (short of the Thomson family, who seem uninterested) who is going to fit the criteria for both ends of that valuation methodology . Either you carve up the assets and lose the synergy value or you package them all together and lose the ego premium.
We're supposed to believe that there's a large institutional investor out there who's going to pay that asking price? Sounds like a good way for someone to get fired for overpaying for assets. This is all just song and dance so teachers can try and convince Shaw, Bell, and Rogers that there's another buyer out there who is going to scoop them.
Unless I'm mistaken, and it wouldn't be the first time - OTPP has never said they were outright selling it - only openly exploring the idea. If they don't find someone that meets their asking price, they have no interest in selling.
And yes, my car is always for sale, for the right price. Almost everything is that we own. I wouldn't sell it for market value, I'd need to see more than that - otherwise I might as well get into the car selling business of buying below MV and selling it at or above for the margin.
If they see no value in one of the marquee franchises in the NHL, an NBA franchise, an MLS franchise (And all three have near sellouts or at least better than league average attendances), plus the sports complexes and all their real estate, maybe they're the ones with their heads up their asses. These firms might be sniffing around for a deal and OTPP has no interest in letting it go for less than market value. They don't need to sell and it represents so little of their portfolio that it more background noise than anything.Every person or company that we hear was/is interested is dead talking to MLSE after the first round of talks. The supposed interested parties barely even kick the tires and they walk away seeing no value in it.
Well that's what's being argued, what IS fair market value? and to who?
Exactly. I doubt OTPP cares much about the catchet or pride of being the owners of MLSE, but I'm sure they recognize the value of it. Throw in the added benefit of higher than average ticket prices, attendance figures and a fanbase used to getting the shaft - that's a winning combo.
Imagine you were one of the unlucky ones who had to buy into a franchise like the Thrashers. The only figure I could find was $110M so I could be wrong, but I'll blame Google. They had to establish a new fan base, try to retain as much of the FO and back office as possible, convince players to play in Winnipeg, work out a deal to get out of Atlanta, and work out a deal with the MTS centre. Realistically, and this is only my opinion and not factual in any way, that $110M was in essence an expansion fee and a little on top to get a mostly functional team. Otherwise the team had been worth close to nothing.
Now imagine you were someone who could basically walk in and buy 3 major league franchises, real estate, a farm team, TV stations and no one who isn't an owner has to change anything about what they do day-to-day. Only one (Raptors) has ever seen a drop in ticket prices and revenue, but most of the STHs are corporate anyways and locked in to seat licenses. MLSE is what most owners want, but they have to pay the premium to get it. Otherwise you have to build it all yourself.
I don't know how to value the above benefits (and I'm sure there are some I missed), but there has to be a substantial premium for it, outside of the numbers on a balance sheet and income statement.
You're repeating everything I am saying. And the OTPP share in MLSE is always up for sale. And they have stated they are looking to unload. They have stated as such. And of course if they don't get a fair price they won't sell. Just like you wouldn't sell something you are looking to if you didn't get at least a fair price for it.
All this shows is that the value of MLSE is well over market price. Not only because they haven't sold it over a year of actively looking to, but they haven't even received 1 single offer. That tells you the market value right there. It's one thing to say you sold it 1 sucker (which may or not be market value) but when NOBODY offers tells you have a problem of what you think its worth.
The coverage of this exasperates me. Why won't editors put decent business writers on this? Leaving sports guys, who don't understand, and are beholden to their precious sources, to write about this, is a waste of time.
Re valuation: The Habs sold a couple of years ago for $575 million. The Leafs are worth more, but how much more. 750 million? 900 million? Definitely a big number. But as for the rest of the empire...
The ACC, what is that really worth? It cost $265 million, but it's value is mostly the rent the owner would collect from the Leafs and Raptors, if it wasn't owned by the same party. The lesson of the market is that these stadiums are worth far less than they cost in an auction (Skydome is Exhibit A, cost of $600 million, sold for $25 million).
Then there's the NBA. I believe the Raptors are worth less than the $450 million Golden State went for last year, possibly far less. Toronto is a serious have-not NBA franchise. Northern California is a bigger, more valuable b-ball market, and there are lots of potential owners in Silicon Valley, who can drive franchise pricing in an auction by competing with each other, which happened in the case of the Warriors, but isn't,obviously, happening in this market.
You throw in $50 million for TFC, add it all up, it doesn't come close to $1.8 billion, or whatever the wet dream number is. It's a lot closer to the valuation of $1.1 billion that Tanenbaum paid for a small stake in 2009. If I was an advisor, I'd probably put a value of around $1.3 billion on the whole MLSE enchilada. For 100% of it.
Re process: they probably shouldn't get too cute. They already got cute with Rogers last year, and it looks to me like it was a mistake. The market is what it is, not what you want it to be. OTPP is the wrong owner for these assets and they know it. They cannot lead investment transactions, it's not what they do. They manage $100 billion, and $99 billion they manage passively. Every other one of their private equity investments, some huge firm like KKR is the lead. OTTP doesn't have the capability to manage the talent, their shambolic dealings re Peddie are all you need to see to know this.
I'd be scared if I was OTTP. It's a business they don't understand. All the MLSE teams are in decline. The OTTP basis in MLSE is around $600 million, so they'll get a return no matter what the price is.
Institutional investing in sports is a bull market fad. Pro sports teams are rich men's toys, not pension assets. OTTP should take the best deal, and move on. They will rue the day if they don't.
Last edited by ensco; 11-19-2011 at 07:14 PM.
“What the world needs is more geniuses with humility; there are so few of us left.”
Question: does Larry have first right of refusal or not?
Healey just stated that Tannebaum does but I have heard from others that he does not.
You know ensco, sometimes I get the feeling that you could run the ML$E empire much better than the Teachers. You really have the knack of seeing the big picture.
MLS is a tough, physical league, that emphasizes speed, and features plastic fields, grueling travel, extreme weather, and incompetent refs. - NK Toronto
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