MLS Playoff Race Thread

[Roogsy]

Yohan normally puts up a "This week in MLS" thread but I haven't seen one in the past couple of weeks so I thought I would throw up a playoff thread to discuss the implications of these last few weeks for various teams.

Needless to say, we can eliminate Vancouver, New England and Toronto from the discussion, they are either almost or completely mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

San Jose is almost eliminated as well but they have a game in hand and an extra point, they can finish with a max of 41 points but that is almost certainly not enough unless NY, Portland and DC fail to pick up points in their last remaining games which is obviously almost impossible, especially since Portland and DC play against each other in a week or so.

Chivas is almost in the same position as San Jose as they are well out of it pointswise and even worse have only 2 remaining games left. But mathematically they can finish with 42 points which means they are technically still in it.

Chicago is the outside shot here. Having picked up 10 of 15 points in the last few weeks, they are on fire right now and have given themselves a shot to get in. It's still unlikely but they do still have something to play for. Mathetically they can still finish with 46 points which should be enough to get in. As I calculated a couple of months ago, 43 points is likely the cut-off.

DC and Portland are on the bubble right now. DC was playing well until dropping losses in their last 2 games. A very poor time to be losing form. Portland has continued their Jekyll and Hyde season, playing well one game and crapping out the next. With a game in hand, DC still has a slight edge on Portland in mathematical terms (potentially able to finish with 50 points vs Portland with 49) but in realistic terms, that extra point Portland has on DC is very valuable.

NY right now is the master of their own fate. While they can only finish with 49 points tops, they have a goal differential in their favour right now and are up on points on both DC and Portland. DC losing games these last two matches really cost them in their chances to make the playoffs. Now they're going to have to dominate these last few games. The advantage DC has is that 3 of their last 4 games are at home and they are facing teams with lesser records than NY has to face.

That last spot will be a race. Pretty exciting. I think this is NY's spot to take. If I were to put money on it, I think NY will make it in but DC will make it tight. It will come down to the last game of the season.

[Whoop]

Like I asked in the post-game thread, if NYRB misses the playoffs does Hans Backe get fired?

[Roogsy]

Yes, I think he does. You don't drop multi-millions on your roster and not make the playoffs. I would say the same applies to TFC next year.

I did fail to mention that while Houston is sitting comfortably in a playoff spot, if they have a run of bad form, they can find themselves on the outside looking in, but that is an unlikely scenario. They really have to shit the bed for that to happen.

[Canary10]

Yes, I think he does. You don't drop multi-millions on your roster and not make the playoffs. I would say the same applies to TFC next year.

I did fail to mention that while Houston is sitting comfortably in a playoff spot, if they have a run of bad form, they can find themselves on the outside looking in, but that is an unlikely scenario. They really have to shit the bed for that to happen.

Amazingly Houston is still in it given they only have one win on the road.

[Yohan]

Amazingly Houston is still in it given they only have one win on the road.

Houston has one reason why they are still in it. Brad davis. If it wasnt for dero's magic run as of late, id have picked brad davis for mvp. I still might, bc davis has been more consistent over the season. Somehow this guy gets underrated every year

[Roogsy]

I think Dwayne wins the MVP if DC makes the playoffs, and will fall short if they don't. The way I figure it, they need 2 wins of these last 4 games to make it in. No impossible but not an easy task either.

[Fort York Redcoat]

For those that are interested.

http://www.mlssoccer.com/playoffstandings

I'm not too excited about DeRo getting a League MVP for getting his third team into the playoffs. The achievement is watered down by his lack of time with the team. An individual achievement for sure but not as exciting if he had done it for a team he'd been with all season.

Past that I'm only interested in playoffs to see if LA gets any respect for winning the season in record breaking fashion or if it's over shadowed again by an early exit to a team with a lesser record and smaller support base to make another anticlimactic final when it's played in LA.

[Yohan]

My list for MVP as of today
Leaders
1. Brad Davis
2. Dwayne DeRosario
3. Brek Shea

Running way behind
4. The Hippy (Beckerman)
5. Mauro Rosales
6. Henry/Beckham/Donovan

[habstfc]

I think Dwayne wins the MVP if DC makes the playoffs, and will fall short if they don't. The way I figure it, they need 2 wins of these last 4 games to make it in. No impossible but not an easy task either.

I agree, if DC makes it in DERO has to win mvp, and I think they will with new york missing out. The most important game for DC is that game against portland, if they win they're in.

What a great story that would make if DC gets in and NY doesn't, that trade for mc carty will be the reason why.

[trane]

Why is this in the TFC section? We are clearly not in the play of race.

[habstfc]

With NY winning last night, DC really has to win their remaining games.

[gtaguy]

I think Dwayne wins the MVP if DC makes the playoffs, and will fall short if they don't. The way I figure it, they need 2 wins of these last 4 games to make it in. No impossible but not an easy task either.

Your point of view is always spot on Roogs.
I don't know u personally but i see that u think in the same soccer mind i do. 2 wins for DC and Dero has a huge chance of being MVP.
No matter how it ends i would love for Dero to have a chance to play in Europe. Dero is a good player, a real good attacking midfielder,. Unethical but yet he's very productive .
He deserves a shot in a good club in Europe.
I know he's not getting any younger but I'm glad i had the chance to see him play at bmo.. Hes a great player and a true Canadian head to toe.

[Roogsy]

Chicago has made an impressive run late in the season. Looks like their pick-ups in the transfer window has made real improvements on their team as well. One more team to be concerned about next year.

If Portland also improve in the off-season, we could be looking at another dogfight for the final playoff spots next year for almost every team.

I think Vancouver and New England will continue to suck into next year and add Montrael to that list as well.

Right now, looks like NY has that final spot locked down. They'd really have to mess up and other teams would have to do crazy things in order for NY not to keep the 10th spot. Which is a crazy fact considering how talented that team is.

If they can get their act together, NY can make noise. If they continue breaking down mentally, NY will be knocked out in the first round.

I still can't believe how DC lost this last game. Up a goal into injury time? I can't remember the last time I saw a choke job that bad.

I think DeRo may win the Golden Boot. A consolation prize of sorts I guess.

[Yohan]

If NY does get the last spot and win their wild card playoff game, they'd face LA...

[Roogsy]

If NY does get the last spot and win their wild card playoff game, they'd face LA...

I mentioned that to one player and they said they'd look forward to such a match-up. It seems players want that challenge. I was taken aback. I guess as fans we have a different perspective.

[ginkster88]

^^ It's the kind of game you can get up for.

It's like when Dero wanted to play in the All-Star game vs. Man U and the boards were up in arms. These guys are professionals and want to test themselves against the best.

[Yohan]

He may have been a bit of douche in Toronto, but DeRo has 16 goals and 12 assists this year.

[ManUtd4ever]

DeRo has had a career season. I think those numbers justify a DP contract, but he will be facing the same dilemna once again in the off season, since DC has the option of picking up the final year of his existing contract for next season.

[mowe]

^ I believe he has about a 500k non-DP contract next year. It'll make a lot more sense to just make him a DP and save big on the cap hit.

[Yohan]

^ I believe he has about a 500k non-DP contract next year. It'll make a lot more sense to just make him a DP and save big on the cap hit.

not from MLS FO POV...

[habstfc]

not from MLS FO POV...

This is what I don't get, why does mls have any say who can be a DP or not. That should solely left up to the individual club.

[Alonso]

This is what I don't get, why does mls have any say who can be a DP or not. That should solely left up to the individual club.

Rightly or wrongly they don't want to see a decent into salary madness where every guy who hits 14 goals scored wants to be paid millions per year.

The league can't spend that money on players they already own. They want that money for players with big names like Henry, and Keane.

Donavan proved himself in the EPL and had offers to stay, so in that sense they had to budge on the hard line to keep him. But unless players get that kind of look from famous clubs I don't think the league is going to budge.

I really don't see Dero getting any more money then he's getting now unless its paid with allocation money. No way they make him a DP, or else, all the other Golden boot contenders will be wanting DP status to.

[Yohan]

This is what I don't get, why does mls have any say who can be a DP or not. That should solely left up to the individual club.

because the league controls all contracts (single entity) and the league doesn't want wage inflation with domestic players getting DP contracts

[Roogsy]

not from MLS FO POV...

This is what I don't get, why does mls have any say who can be a DP or not. That should solely left up to the individual club.

The whole "MLS didn't let us" angle is a deception. It's been accepted as fact around here but the reality is that it is nowhere near accurate. That is all I will say about that.

As for the playoffs, I don't know what to make of NY. I really don't. They could choke in the first round or win it all. They are the biggest unknown in the field of playoff teams.

What about LA? Will we see them in the final or will they choke again? Landycakes will be back, will Keane? Hard to dismiss a team with that kind of potency in their attack. Becks dropping balls on a dime on their feet should scare every team in their path.