CCL Win & Loss Math
looks like if we win against pumas next week, we are into the next round.
if we win, we go to 9 pts.
if tauro wins the next 2 games they will only have 8pts
a pumas loss to us next week plus a win the next match - they have 7 pts
and lets not worry about dallas - a win and we're in!
pumas has 3 matches left
pumas also play this saturday at 6pm and fly into toronto for the tuesday match.
Don't we play out west this saturday at 10:30 est against chives?? don't think there travel schedule is much of an advantage for us..Originally Posted by hodgkiss
Yes...but they are going to lose tonight....remember.
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scratch that. my bad - sorry. well that is even more pressure to win this next match! and to win in dallas!
Yes...but they are going to lose tonight....remember.
yes, that is true
can we close this thread until we know what happens tonight...as long as pumas don't win in dallas, then all tfc needs to do is beat them and we are in
TWO BIG IFS (as it stands right now)
Winter should definitely play the reserves against Chivas.
^should and will are unfortunately two different things, but i think both eckersley and ryan johnson hinted at wanting to rest and prepare for pumas in their interviews last night...keep frings, jdg, koef, johnson, ecks at home; keep them from travelling. Might depend on tonights result between Dallas/Pumas...if Pumas doesn't win then a TFC win next week qualifies us, then it won't matter what happens after that. I really, really hope Winter sees the light on this one
I really - really hope he doesn't "see the light," in running out the reserves. Some smart decisions to leave one and two players on the bench will suffice.
Probably the minority, but it's my preference that the team goes for both playoffs and CCL, until one is no longer possible.
Keepz hope alive, ppl.
We have no chance for playoffs. There is no hope. Play the kids ... keep everyone else at home and avoid the travel fatigue to load up for Pumas.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html
CL is the only thing left to play for. Plus it is good for the team for the reserves to get first team action. I hope that he plays the reserves and rests the first squad.
Yup, the most important game of the CCL is next week.
Time for some small "injuries" to De Guzman, Frings, Koevermans, and Eckersley to pop up.
Of course, this is all dependent on Dallas getting a win or draw tonight.
One hope is dead. It is no longer possible to make the playoffs.
We must keep the other alive.
We're not mathematically out yet, heck I don't think anyone is.
Third in the East makes the playoffs, and we are only 9 points out, with 4 games left. Heck, we're only 11 points out of first place with only 4 games left. Also the final wild-card spot is at 36 points.
It's certainly extremely unlikely though ... but we do seem to have momentum. Neither of our remaining away games is unwinnable.
I believe we are. Technically we can get enough points to surpass teams in front of us based on our current points deficit so we are not OFFICIALLY dead. But these teams have more games remaining and will be playing against each other. Points will be earned when they play each other and leaves us out of the picture.
You are right, while TFC is not mathematically out of the playoffs there is no sense in talking about momentum and how "close" we are to 1st place.
If they win all 4 of their remaining matches they will have a 7.5% chance of making the playoffs.
To add to that, currently TFC has a 0.01613% chance of making the MLS playoffs.
alot of ways to get in....but the best case senario..BEAT PUMAS ...BEAT DALLAS!!
Its in our hands...we hold our own destiny..and thats the way it should be!
TFC will not make the playoffs.
I looked at it for about 15 minutes. There are too many variables. Of the ten teams we are chasing we only have the tiebreak over Portland, Columbus and Colorado. As soon as six of those teams break 42 points, we're out.
Three of Columbus' remaining games are against teams we are chasing.
Four of Sporting KC's remaining games are against teams we are chasing.
Four of Philadelphia's remaining games are against teams we are chasing.
One of Houston's remaining games are against teams we are chasing.
Three of NY's remaining games are against teams we are chasing.
Three of Portland's remaining games are against teams we are chasing.
Six of DC United's remaining games are against teams we are chasing.
Two of Chivas' remaining games are against teams we are chasing.
Three of Chicago's remaining games are against teams we are chasing.
Too many matches. TFC should be mathematically out after the next two league games.
Last edited by ginkster88; 09-21-2011 at 12:19 PM.
If we go 4-0-0 to end the season we still only have a 7.5% chance at the playoffs. Anything less then 4 wins and we are out, and that still calls for alot of help from alot of other teams.
I say play the reserves in the leauge, and go for broke in the CCL
+1 on playing the kids this weekend.
alot of ways to get in....but the best case senario..BEAT PUMAS ...BEAT DALLAS!!
Its in our hands...we hold our own destiny..and thats the way it should be!
guess its a reality now!
yup... all these "well, if Dallas beats Pumas and we tie Pumas etc etc" calculations don't matter now. It's about forgetting what other teams are doing and just win, baby! We know if we win both games, we're in. That's it. Go for it!!!!!!No backing in!!!!
(well, some other results could happen to make it easier... Go Tauro!!!!!!!.LOL!)
Last edited by rocker; 09-22-2011 at 11:47 AM.
We have a 1 in 6,000 chance of making the playoffs (approximately)
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/TorontoFC.html
Clearly you don't quite know how to use that website. We have a 14.9% chance of making the playoffs with 4 wins in 4 games.
And we have a 1% chance of winning the remaining 4 games.
Probably have something like a 25% chance of winning the 2 Champions League games with rested and prepared key players. But if Winter insists on flying them across the continent for a meaningless game then the chance of advancing through the group stage is greatly reduced.
Alright, boys. How does "last in the league" sound, for the team advancing in "The Champion's League."
For me, if we can't win both, I would be embarrassed if we were to even come close to winning the CCL. I feel like we're trying to fly, before we can crawl.
It would be different if we've ever had proper success in the league, but we haven't and aren't having the best of seasons, either, as far as the numbers go.
i don't think teams that won the MLS Cup cared that they qualified through last place in the playoffs
“Years have gone by and I’ve finally learned to accept myself for who I am: a beggar for good football.
I go about the world, hand outstretched, and in the stadiums I plead: ‘A pretty move, for the love of God.’
And when good football happens, I give thanks for the miracle and I don’t give a damn which team or country performs it.”
-Eduardo Galeano
I understand how to use the website. Yes we have a 15% chance of making the playoffs with 4 wins in 4 games. And combining the odds of us winning all 4 games and all the other results falling our way becomes .034% (3,349 out of 10 Million times). We are toast in MLS. While technically possible .......... God seems to like to intervene in our CCL games.
CCL requires 2 wins in 2 games or possibly 1 draw and 1 win in two games ..... which would you bet on?
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