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  1. #751
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    Quote Originally Posted by joeyjones View Post
    i don't want to come across as pro-Mariner or anti-Winter, all i'm saying is that you didn't just post the link to the blog, you took a snippet of the blog that provided stats from 2012 and left out one, imo, important stat, and that is points per game....obviously neither of them have a good ppg avg, but i think it is fair to point out that Mariner's results vs Winter's (3 gms v 10 gms) is almost 100% better...

    the reds may shit the bed in the next 7 games, but all they would need is 1 point out of the next 7 to equal AW's results...
    Actually, the link is there it just doesn't appear with an underline: http://www.sportsnet.ca/fanfuel/2012..._paul_mariner/

    2 of 9 points isn't 100% better

    You are right though, we will continue to look at the stats all through the year... including CCL.

    For me, there are 3 results/outcomes:

    1. RESULT: Mariner does as poorly or worse. OUTCOME: Anselmi steps aside on the TFC portion of his MLSE responsibilities. New President is hired and that person has the freedom to make a decision on Mariner

    2. RESULT: Mariner shows a slight improvement OUTCOME: 6 seasons, no playoffs. Not good enough. Anselmi steps aside on the TFC portion of his MLSE responsibilities. New President is hired and that person has the freedom to make a decision on Mariner.

    3. RESULT: Mariner makes the playoffs in a Miracle run OUTCOME: Anselmi got lucky. Anselmi steps aside on the TFC portion of his MLSE responsibilities. New President is hired and Mariner would likely keep his job, having won the trust and support of the fan base

  2. #752
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pookie View Post

    2 of 9 points isn't 100% better
    uh, yes it is, 2 points in 3 games = 6.7 points over 10 games....how is that not 100% better than 3 points over 10 games??

    i hate to keep pointing out mistakes, but if you lob balls up in the air, i'm gonna take a fat swing at them..
    Last edited by joeyjones; 06-26-2012 at 01:39 PM.

  3. #753
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    Oh, I see you are usign the mathematical theory of grasping at straws

    I was using a bit of a different equation:

    2 points in 3 games = 6.7 points over 10 games = 22.67 points over a 34 game season = no playoffs = not 100% better

    Again, neither coach has anything to be proud of. Fact is, in vitrually every measure, Mariner's team is performing worse. And that's saying a lot.

  4. #754
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pookie View Post
    Oh, I see you are usign the mathematical theory of grasping at straws

    I was using a bit of a different equation:

    2 points in 3 games = 6.7 points over 10 games = 22.67 points over a 34 game season = no playoffs = not 100% better

    Again, neither coach has anything to be proud of. Fact is, in vitrually every measure, Mariner's team is performing worse. And that's saying a lot.
    well, you are the one that is putting out the %'s and insisting that Mariner's team is performing worse than Winter's, in 2012...except that you omit the actual results, which may lead someone to believe we are performing better.

    again, as you point out, a .67 ppg avg is woeful at best and i am not saying either AW or PM are good coaches. but, and i quote "Fact is, in virtually every measure, Mariner's team is performing worse", except for the results, correct? which you leave out in your analysis above..

  5. #755
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    Quote Originally Posted by joeyjones View Post
    well, you are the one that is putting out the %'s and insisting that Mariner's team is performing worse than Winter's, in 2012...except that you omit the actual results, which may lead someone to believe we are performing better.

    again, as you point out, a .67 ppg avg is woeful at best and i am not saying either AW or PM are good coaches. but, and i quote "Fact is, in virtually every measure, Mariner's team is performing worse", except for the results, correct? which you leave out in your analysis above..
    If it helps you for me to say that Mariner's woeful results are slightly better than Winter's woeful results, that's fine we can do that.

    But if you want to get technical, note that the blog was only based on stats for 2012 MLS games... so Winter's 10 games vs Mariner's 3. I wanted this to be as "apples to apples" as we can get with the same players in the same league now playing a different system.

    It didn't include any of the non-MLS games under Winter (where he would shine with an 11-2-7 record). I didn't feel that would be fair to include those in the process. I can run those if you like and we can look at PPG again.

    Or we can simply note that under Mariner's new system... so far... when compared with Winter's results in the same season with the same team, the team has scored slightly more (or Danny K has), is winning slightly more battles, conceding more shots, shooting less often, holding the ball much less and haven't been able to as accurate with their passing.

    I don't call that 100% improvement but it's why fans will debate with each other over a beer. Speaking of which... it's after 3pm...

  6. #756
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    Pookie, i know that the results were for 2012 MLS games only and i do applaud AW for his CCL run and ACC and NCC wins...it was surprising to say the least...but he could not adjust to MLS league play and get results..

    PM will have his shot at the CCL this summer and it may be a reversal of sorts, where he will be able to get better results in MLS than AW, but won't be able to adjust to CCL play, we'll see...

  7. #757
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    Quote Originally Posted by joeyjones View Post
    i don't want to come across as pro-Mariner or anti-Winter, all i'm saying is that you didn't just post the link to the blog, you took a snippet of the blog that provided stats from 2012 and left out one, imo, important stat, and that is points per game....obviously neither of them have a good ppg avg, but i think it is fair to point out that Mariner's results vs Winter's (3 gms v 10 gms) is almost 100% better...

    the reds may shit the bed in the next 7 games, but all they would need is 1 point out of the next 7 to equal AW's results...
    Seriously, you are comparing Mariner to a horror 1-10 start? he had better be 500% better, not 100%. If he's a marginal "improvement" over horrible (like just "very, very bad"), show him the door right away.
    MLS is a tough, physical league, that emphasizes speed, and features plastic fields, grueling travel, extreme weather, and incompetent refs. - NK Toronto

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    Seriously, you are comparing Mariner to a horror 1-10 start? he had better be 500% better, not 100%. If he's a marginal "improvement" over horrible (like just "very, very bad"), show him the door right away.
    i wasn't the one offering up the comparison OT, just completing the info...keep it straight bud

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    Quote Originally Posted by joeyjones View Post
    i wasn't the one offering up the comparison OT, just completing the info...keep it straight bud
    ummm.... you are the one who is bringing in points per game, just to keep it straight.
    MLS is a tough, physical league, that emphasizes speed, and features plastic fields, grueling travel, extreme weather, and incompetent refs. - NK Toronto

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    Joeyjones is right.

    I'm not a fan of Mariner and hope the next TFC management team search is already happening (although I don't expect it with the impending MLSE sale).

    But that statistical analysis by Pookie comparing Winter to Mariner is laughable.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    ummm.... you are the one who is bringing in points per game, just to keep it straight.
    yes, i brought up the ppg avg....which i think is an important factor in determining whether or not TFC is regressing under Mariner....if you can't provide all the stats to support your view, then i call BS on the post...

    i am pointing out flaws in the argument, you don't want to see it, that's fine....but don't give all these stats that indicate AW's TFC is better than PM's TFC and then when i point out the stat that indicates otherwise, i'm wrong to do so...
    Last edited by joeyjones; 06-26-2012 at 09:03 PM.

  12. #762
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    Quote Originally Posted by joeyjones View Post

    i am pointing out flaws in the argument, you don't want to see it, that's fine....but don't give all these stats that indicate AW's TFC is better than PM's TFC and then when i point out the stat that indicates otherwise, i'm wrong to do so...
    I wasn't putting up the stats, Pookie was. I only questioned your statement that Mariner is 100% better, and asked you why you were wanting to use points per game.

    I think it's a bit of a stretch to put up stats after 3 games myself, whether pro or against him. It's also equally ridiculous to exclude the CCL run and last year's results when comparing him with Aron Winter. That comes from someone who is not a Winter supporter.
    MLS is a tough, physical league, that emphasizes speed, and features plastic fields, grueling travel, extreme weather, and incompetent refs. - NK Toronto

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    I wasn't putting up the stats, Pookie was. I only questioned your statement that Mariner is 100% better, and asked you why you were wanting to use points per game.

    I think it's a bit of a stretch to put up stats after 3 games myself, whether pro or against him. It's also equally ridiculous to exclude the CCL run and last year's results when comparing him with Aron Winter. That comes from someone who is not a Winter supporter.
    i didn't mean you specifically, i should have said when "someone" instead of you...i know Pookie posted the stats...go back to the stats he posted, the stat missing there is ppg avg, that is all i am saying...i am not saying that, randomly, PM is 100% better, i am pointing out that you can spin the numbers any way you want to support a particular viewpoint...Pookie is saying that the numbers he posted infer that TFC is regressing under PM, and i am pointing out that if you look at ppg avg, you could argue that PM is more than 100% better than AW...

  14. #764
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    preview of tfc v l'impact.

    and know your enemy: looking at what's different since last we met, mainly how their midfield now lines up, with bernier and Martins working particularly well.

  15. #765
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    Quote Originally Posted by narduch View Post
    Joeyjones is right.

    I'm not a fan of Mariner and hope the next TFC management team search is already happening (although I don't expect it with the impending MLSE sale).

    But that statistical analysis by Pookie comparing Winter to Mariner is laughable.
    Honestly, no statistician would hang their hats on a 3 game sample. Particularly in pro sports where one weak outing very early can skew the data (i.e.. a pitcher who has an inflated ERA after giving up a few runs or a goalie with a poor save percentage who lets in 4 one night).

    But let me ask you this.

    If after 3 games Mariner's results showed just the opposite. That Possession was up. Passing Accuracy was better. We were outshooting our opponents by bigger margins. Would you conclude that the team is headed in the right direction? I imagine many would say that "while it is early, there are positive signs."

    I'm simply saying, while it is early (though I am also willing to debate that given Mariner's 19 month connection to the team), there are some very alarming signs that we are regressing.

    Further, the reason that I felt it important to bring them forward, and keep pressure on the FO, is that while they are just 3 games, there is no anomaly amongst the bunch. All 3 games have been consistently poorer with the exact same roster.

    Possession

    SKC Game - 39.7
    Houston Game - 36.7
    NE Game - 35.3

    Passing Accuracy

    SKC Game - 60
    Houston Game - 60
    NE Game - 64

    Shots For/ Against

    SKC Game 6/10 - Difference of -4
    Houston Game 13/16 - Difference of -3
    NE Game 11/14 - Difference of - 3

    Outshot in all 3 games by relatively the same margin

    There is very little you can point to, to suggest that any one game has skewed the stats that Mariner has posted with the exact same roster (for the most part) that AW had.

    In saying that, I hope tonight proves to be the anomaly so far. I hope we outshoot the Impact by 10. I hope possession is in the high 70s. I hope we nail 80% of our passes. And for Joey, I hope that we can grab 3 points and start demonstrating some of this 100% improvement he speaks about.
    Last edited by Pookie; 06-27-2012 at 10:33 AM.

  16. #766
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    Report on last night's 'absolute disgrace' which I think is now up there with 'worst team in the world' for my favourite quote of the season.

  17. #767
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    Mariner Logs His 1st TFC Victory in Montreal


    http://viewfromthesouthstands.com/20...y-in-montreal/


    In this post game video blog I take a look back at what was perhaps Toronto’s most complete ninety minute performance of the season as the Reds defeated Montreal 3-0 at the newly renovated Stade Saputo.


    In this V-Blog I heap particular praise on Toronto’s midfield of Avila, Frings de Guzman and Dunfield and how their play (particularly defensively) allowed the beleaguered Toronto back line a much easier time than they arguably have had all season. I talk about how Koevermans and Johnson are starting to really click offensively and I try and temper the immediate dose of optimism that a win like this can bring with the reality check of reminding us all that the Impact are still an expansion team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pookie View Post
    And for Joey, I hope that we can grab 3 points and start demonstrating some of this 100% improvement he speaks about.
    it is now over a 400% improvement

  19. #769
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    Quote Originally Posted by joeyjones View Post
    it is now over a 400% improvement
    Touche good sir

    Though I would still like to add that the stats within the stats deserve a raised eyebrow. You can't keep giving up the ball, making errant passes and getting outshot and expect to win the lion's share of the matches. Over time, those odds will work against you.

    Possession

    SKC Game - 39.7
    Houston Game - 36.7
    NE Game - 35.3
    MTL Game - 36.6

    Passing Accuracy

    SKC Game - 60
    Houston Game - 60
    NE Game - 64
    MTL Game - 63

    Shots For/ Against

    SKC Game 6/10 - Difference of -4
    Houston Game 13/16 - Difference of -3
    NE Game 11/14 - Difference of - 3
    MTL Game 11/14 - Difference of -3

  20. #770
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    What the world needs. New strip now up a East Side Stand Up!

  21. #771
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    TFC vs Your Footy "First Love"

    http://viewfromthesouthstands.com/2012/06/firstlove/

    Thoughts on how the existence of Toronto FC makes it possible for us to see special players like Thierry Henry in the flesh... as long as he loses!

  22. #772
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    Not A Win, But Not Bad. TFC 1 – NYRB1

    http://viewfromthesouthstands.com/2012/07/tfc-1-nyrb1/

    The Red Bulls came to town, scored withing the first five minutes yet they did not leave Toronto with three points.

    It was not great, but it was not bad either. Toronto FC drew NYRB 1-1 in a competitive, if yet than than thrilling draw at BMO Field on Saturday.

    In this video blog I try and put the relative progress the club is seeing in recent results under Paul Mariner in some sort of context, I heap more praise on the revamped TFC midfield and Danny Koevermans an his recent goal a game scoring pace is put into some MLS wide perspective. I also try and shed some light on what is happening with Joao Plata and his impending transfer back to Ecuador.

  23. #773
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    couple of articles from last night.

    1, a feature on Eric Avila before his return to Dallas.

    2. improvements on the pitch, but the same old drama rears it's head in the plata and nesta sagas.

  24. #774
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    Glutton for punishment. New strip now up at RedNation Online!

  25. #775
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    Plata Gong Show Leaves TFC Fans Cold

    "....Toronto FC already has a reputation of treating its players poorly. That reputation is hardly enhanced by watching the ham-fisted way Earl Cochrane tried to engage in “damage control” Saturday night by denying the rumours Plata has left the club to the very media that watched him clean out his locker and say good-bye to his teammates just 45 minutes later. Research in Motion would do well to give Cochrane a pass when looking for successful case studies in turning around negative PR. Is there anything this man touches that doesn’t blow up in everyone’s face?..."

    The rest is at Typical TFC.

  26. #776
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    ^ good read.

    In my latest, I ask if Paul Mariner is the Savior TFC fans have been looking for. Some food for thought, records, stats and a theory that as the health of Danny Koevermans and Torsten Frings goes, so to do the fortunes of the team.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/fanfuel/2012...fc_mls_soccer/

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    TFC Getting Competitive On The Road

    http://viewfromthesouthstands.com/20...g-competitive/

    In this post game video blog I take a look back at the game in Dallas Wednesday evening that saw Toronto FC get a well deserved point away from home in a hard fought 1-1 draw.

    Also I put TFC's recent relative road success into a MLS wide perspective, I pose the question on if the trigger should have been pulled on the coaching change earlier than it was, I ask if there is fire in the Front Office from the smoke billowing from the Plata and Nesta situations, I make two pleas for help from TFC fans and I give the club some well deserved props on Champions League ticketing.

  29. #779
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    The Confusing, Complicated, Impossible-to-Decipher Toronto Football Club

    Plata loaned out; Nesta’s will-he, won’t-he dance; Zoboli’s unknown status; Frings’ possible retirement; Julian de Guzman’s contract/DP negotiations; South American scouting; new MLS regulars; Canadian National Team players; Returning players via allocation; Toronto FC Academy graduates – it all makes for a lot of complicated wheeling and dealing.

  30. #780
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    Yeah, but... New strip now up at East Side Stand Up!

 

 

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