Post Game: New England vs TFC

[bgnewf]

I understand where Roogsy et.al. are coming from and I understand the sentiment. It is hard to get up and enthused about almost anything about this club considering the overall results dating back now five seasons.

But with due respect is it not just a bit early to completely write off this season? In a couple of weeks TFC will have a chance to secure silverware versus Vancouver with an away goal in their back pocket. If they win then they have a real chance again of getting to the group stages of CONCACAF, which is not something to sneeze at.

And on a relatively micro not macro perspective the last two results overall are in my humble opinion good ones that will look even better if they can secure a result against Seattle on Saturday.

Believe me I get the angst, but it is just a bit too early to completely pack it in just yet.

[torontocelt]

I understand where Roogsy et.al. are coming from and I understand the sentiment. It is hard to get up and enthused about almost anything about this club considering the overall results dating back now five seasons.

But with due respect is it not just a bit early to completely write off this season? In a couple of weeks TFC will have a chance to secure silverware versus Vancouver with an away goal in their back pocket. If they win then they have a real chance again of getting to the group stages of CONCACAF, which is not something to sneeze at.

And on a relatively micro not macro perspective the last two results overall are in my humble opinion good ones that will look even better if they can secure a result against Seattle on Saturday.

Believe me I get the angst, but it is just a bit too early to completely pack it in just yet.

i get what you are saying but if success in our season is winning two games, one against Edmonton and one against Vancouver who have only just joined the MLS then Christ our expectations of the club are low. The Canadian Cup is with all due respect a joke. Only having three teams, now four, it really shouldn't be seen as any kind of major accomplishment to win it. The Champions league is a big bonus for the club to get for winning such a poor cup competition, we are extremely lucky that potentially winning two games can have such high rewards, not that many of the TFC fans care though as our previous attendances in the competition proved.

[mw83krk]

are we seriously talking about playoffs?

a team that has won 2 games out of 16 games played has no business making the playoffs.

with that said, I'll be driving in Saturday with the wife from Niagara Falls as usual to give our support. go team!

[MartinUtd]

torontocelt, don't think of the Cup as the prize yet (it'll start to have meaning when there's 5-6 teams) but think about getting those CONCACAF games. For me, I would call a successful season either MLS playoffs or the knockout stages in Champions League.

A win seemed very possible (hence the disappointment) but the problem is that we're terrible in the final third. Unless something changes like a new player or somebody in the midfield steps up then we won't be able to close out games. Our record can still look a lot better with back to back wins. Anything can happen in this league.

[Roogsy]

I find it amusing how NE gets knocked down on here as an opponent ("well, we should beat them at their home field") when it's convenient, and then praised as an example we have to follow in other threads ("NE is a good team, Nicol is a great coach, wish we had Shalrie Joseph!").

I have never seen New England praised as an "example" team. Praise to Nicol and Joseph? Sure. But New England's cheapness has been their achilles heel and I for one don't agree with how they run their club. So I am quite sure you are not referring to me, even though I have praised both Nicol and Joseph. In fact, one of the points I have made about Nicol is the desire to see how he does with more ambitious owners.

And I would be perfectly happy with a NE draw whether or not they are a good or bad team if TFC had not been dropping so many points at home. But now, they are under pressure on the road to get more points out of their own doing. Or are you aware of some other form of magical math that gets this team more points even though they have less home games than they do on the road?

FYI, our chances of making the playoffs dropped from 3.4% to 3.2% because of that "super fantastic" draw yesterday. That speaks volumes about how good that draw was more than all the optmisim you can muster.

[Redpunkfiddle]

]are we seriously talking about playoffs?[/SIZE]

a team that has won 2 games out of 16 games played has no business making the playoffs.

with that said, I'll be driving in Saturday with the wife from Niagara Falls as usual to give our support. go team!

Must... resist... urge.... to...default to obvious Youtube link

[Dave67]

Roogsy you don't seem to add any value to the fact that TFC travelled coast to coast and pulled off a draw in NE. I know we've dropped too many points at home, the Chicago comeback tie at home may still bite us on the ass, but this team is not as far out of the playoffs as it seems. There's still time folks. We need a solid August & September. That could be all it takes. http://www.settingthetable.info/home/

Also I think the playoff odds calculator is off. I suspect it's meant to be 30%. No way the odds are 3%. I'll take the bet if that's the case. And before you ask, look at the graph, it's clearly around 30 or 32% not 3%. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/TorontoFC.html

[Roogsy]

I beg to differ about my adding value. I have repeatedly said that getting a point on the road is usually a satisfactory result. However, in this case, it simply is not enough, because TFC have put themselves in this dire situation. As for the coast-to-coast argument, every team in MLS has to deal with that and the standings could care less if you take points at home, in the city down the interstate or in a city 3000miles away.

As for the probabilities, if his TFC number is wrong then the whole graph is incorrect as the methodology is surely applied to all teams. It does seem somewhat of a preciptious drop between 20% and the lower 3 teams however they are underwhelmingly poor this season and TFC has played more games than almost anyone in MLS save for a couple of teams and yet still finds themselves near the bottom so it is possible the methodology is not wrong. It would be strange if TFC's chances would be better than teams ahead of them in the standings or with more games in hand though.

[ag futbol]

Hypothetically there are enough games left to salvage the season but realistically (based on past performance) our goose is cooked. Sure, we could catch fire based on some savvy transfers in the summer window but I'm not holding my breath. Every other team will be trying to do the same, keep in mind.

[123 elite]

i tend to agree with Roogsey and torontocelt on this. There is no-one to fear at any MLS stadium. Quite why any team has to have a different approach to a game because it is not your patch of grass is beyond me. Its not like they are playing the Nou with 90000 fans screaming at you. And even if that were the case they aren't going to influence anything. The game last night was pretty much the same old thing. poor passing, poor distribution and poor finishing from both teams. No change. I saw Gordon charge out of defence with the ball all serious and head down and was so easily dispossessed it was embarrassing.
unless you appraoch all games with the idea you can win then you aren't going to be successful in the long run. So why settle for 2 out of 6 as a fan. Philly and DC have given us the kind of spanking at home that we have never shown any sign of doing to anyone in 5 years. And thats just not good enough.

[Dave67]

The numbers are way off at 3%. It's 30%. Find me anywhere that will take my bet at 3% and I'll go wild.

[Roogsy]

The numbers are way off at 3%. It's 30%. Find me anywhere that will take my bet at 3% and I'll go wild.

I said that if his TFC number is wrong then so is the rest of the graph. Unless we know how he is calculating his probabilities, I can't speak to the accuracy of "3%". What isn't wrong is TFC's lower probabilities of making the playoffs than most other teams. Big picture.

And like 123 Elite said, why is it that teams can come into BMO Field and spank us but we don't go to their house and spank them? If there was a night to do it, last night was it. They had all of 3 people in the stands and were playing like a Beer League team and we couldn't score on them. And that is a positive?

[Shakes McQueen]

I agree with Roogsy and ag that playoffs are probably out of the question for this team, whatever the maths say right now.

Though as I've said a bunch of times, this season, for me, isn't necessarily about success in the final standings. It's about trying to judge the development and acquisition of this team's short term and long term future. I'm trying to be a Zen Master this year.

I won't expand further, lest we go down that rabbit hole of debate again, haha.

- Scott

[Dave67]

I give up on you. Give Winter & Co until a week after the transfer window closes. Then you can all be doom & gloom for the rest of the season. For me, I'm going with the everything is fine route. Baseless, pointless, factless, whatever. We have more good on this team than bad.

[brad]

Though as I've said a bunch of times, this season, for me, isn't necessarily about success in the final standings.

I'm still judging based on making the playoffs this year, only because Winter said at the start of the season that that was a goal for this season. If he fails to deliver on that goal, that shakes my faith in his ability to deliver on his other goals.

[Blizzard]

The numbers are way off at 3%. It's 30%. Find me anywhere that will take my bet at 3% and I'll go wild.

Just remember that the site in question is totally mathematical and is based on past results. It is not a prediction site. If the team goes on a run and another couple of team that have done well thus far dip in form, the odds will change dramatically.

I'm sure it probably is 3% right now but I'm not giving up on my team and have some optimism regarding new players joining the club and some current players improving.

Does that mean that I believe that the club will definitely make the play-offs? No but I expect to see a side that will make a good run at a spot.

In other words, for me, the glass is half full.

[torontocelt]

I'm still judging based on making the playoffs this year, only because Winter said at the start of the season that that was a goal for this season. If he fails to deliver on that goal, that shakes my faith in his ability to deliver on his other goals.

Me too Brad, Winter obviously felt despite the changes that he could do it even if others were willing to write the season off before a ball had even been kicked. If Winter doesn't make it or even come close in a year where has been given even more of a chance to make the play offs with the extra places then that would be a terrible for me. He already got a second chance in the Canadian Cup, again if he fails to take us to the Champions league when he only needs to beat Edmonton (terrible team) and Vancouver (new to MLS, lost manager etc) then that would be a disaster.

[torontocelt]

We are not even averaging one point per game, that is shite by anyone's standards.

[Shakes McQueen]

I'm still judging based on making the playoffs this year, only because Winter said at the start of the season that that was a goal for this season. If he fails to deliver on that goal, that shakes my faith in his ability to deliver on his other goals.

Saying that making the playoffs was the "goal" is a far cry from a guarantee though. In fact, it's a pretty meek bar to set, if you really think about it. And everything Winter & Co. have said since then, has been about how the process is still ongoing.

That might just be a convenient shifting of the goalposts, but "playoffs is the goal" is pretty much the default mission statement of any team. It's not common for GM's to openly admit that the year is probably going to be a wash, because they still have financial considerations, like selling tickets.

- Scott

[Ossington Mental Youth]

I'm still judging based on making the playoffs this year, only because Winter said at the start of the season that that was a goal for this season. If he fails to deliver on that goal, that shakes my faith in his ability to deliver on his other goals.

I will be shocked if we make the playoffs this year. Im still feeling positive about the team

[Fishnicker]

Just remember that the site in question is totally mathematical and is based on past results. It is not a prediction site. If the team goes on a run and another couple of team that have done well thus far dip in form, the odds will change dramatically.

Yup. If you click on the 50/50 link (all remaining games in the sim get an even chance to win) the odds go to 19%. It all depends on past results, and this being MLS, things can change dramatically.

That being said, we're still in the shits.

[Oldtimer]

Last year, early in the season, that site said the Jays had a 95% chance of making the playoffs. We know how that turned out.

I wouldn't put much stock in his algorithms.

For MLS, it seems more accurate late in the season, like from September on.

That being said, it would take a run like RSL's at the end of 2009 to make the playoffs. Possible, but not too likely, and would probably depend on other results being highly favourable. I'm not budgeting for playoff tickets at all this year.

[mightydrm]

Maybe playoffs are unlikely, but the point for me is that the team is improving, after a horrible start, despite a very bad run of injuries and a very busy and tough schedule, especially for a team with injuries. In the past, we would have lost the NE game. Something is going right - the players seem to have more confidence and trust in each other. Now it's time to make BMO a fortress again. And we can start as fans by showing up on time!

[Beach_Red]

Saying that making the playoffs was the "goal" is a far cry from a guarantee though. In fact, it's a pretty meek bar to set, if you really think about it. And everything Winter & Co. have said since then, has been about how the process is still ongoing.

That might just be a convenient shifting of the goalposts, but "playoffs is the goal" is pretty much the default mission statement of any team. It's not common for GM's to openly admit that the year is probably going to be a wash, because they still have financial considerations, like selling tickets.

- Scott

Exactly. And it's much better for a GM to pay lip service to "making the playoffs" instead of making those panicky moves to scramble for a few more points and take the team completely off course. We've had enough of that with this team.