Okay, this is what I've got:
Toronto FC wins the NCC under any of the following three scenarios.
1) We win either of our remaining 2 matches, or
2) We draw both remaining matches, or
3) We draw one remaining match and Montreal takes points off Vancouver.
It is impossible for TFC to tie Vancouver on points in this tournament, therefor goal diff is of no further significance.
Make sense?
Martyn