Originally Posted by
Auzzy
I would suggest we likely can't maintain that goal-scoring pace, period. A few days ago, denime posted a very interesting article in the daily news thread, about how TFC is scoring goals at a rate way above what would be predicted based on "expected goals" (which is calculated based on actual game situations).
What that likely tells us:
- Jozy (and Pozuelo) have been very good. But Jozy will need breaks for injury, international duty, and recovery. Pozuelo will also need breaks; plus teams now have a couple of blueprint games to watch and emulate, on shutting down Pozuelo via crowding him, hacking, and leaving him much less space than any other TFC player.
- Even when Jozy and Poz are playing, they (and the whole team) will trend down closer towards the "expected goals" output with time, it's pretty well guaranteed. There's always lots of luck involved with scoring, and you can't ride it for a season.
- How to deal with the above issues? Your point is probably, TFC needs to focus on improving the defense, as they already have a good offensive output. I agree with that. However:
- Some of our defensive problems also come from problems at midfield and even at forward. E.g. bad passes & turnovers in dangerous areas; not enough defensive midfield cover; gradually pushing higher and higher when "possession w/o purpose" doesn't lead to goals for TFC.
- In addition to improving defense (by the whole team), they need to improve the "expected goals" output per game, with better players and smarter game plans, so that we don't depend on miracle plays by Jozy & Pozuelo (and can just enjoy them if/when they happen anyway).