Match Day 30 - This game is a socialist utopia Reds vs Union Sat Sept 24 5 pm

Games are independent events.

A team "on form" could be riding a 10 game winning streak only to lose the next one because of a poor match up or an adjustment made by the opponent.

A team suffering a 10 game losing streak can snap it... maybe against the 10 game winner... just as easy.

Playoff competitions are different. You don't have to beat the league, only the team you line up against.

What we do on September 24th has no bearing at all on what they do in October. Unless of course they suffer a significant injury to a key starter(s).

Weird fact: Columbus and Portland went 4-2 over their last 6 last year and ended up in the cup final. TFC also went 4-2 and lost to Montreal in the knock out.

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Originally Posted by Pookie

No point in rushing him back.

No point really in anyone getting hurt. This is basically pre post season training time.

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not really true statement, even with a home game in the first round by placing 3rd of 4th, based on my estimating of what the betting odds will be
we have about a 33% chance of losing that first game also you do not get the rest factor as you have to play really quickly again in the second round games and you would have to play a far better opponent possibly New York red bulls vs say philadelphia
getting first or second place is really important.

It would be a big disapointment and collapse if we don't finish top two. We ahould do everything to win the east and compete for the shield. Playoffs are a crap shoot - if get on a role to the finals then great.

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Originally Posted by Pookie

Games are independent events.

A team "on form" could be riding a 10 game winning streak only to lose the next one because of a poor match up or an adjustment made by the opponent.

A team suffering a 10 game losing streak can snap it... maybe against the 10 game winner... just as easy.

Playoff competitions are different. You don't have to beat the league, only the team you line up against.

What we do on September 24th has no bearing at all on what they do in October. Unless of course they suffer a significant injury to a key starter(s).

Weird fact: Columbus and Portland went 4-2 over their last 6 last year and ended up in the cup final. TFC also went 4-2 and lost to Montreal in the knock out.

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Not saying you're completely wrong but at the same time I really enjoyed how you skewed the stats to make it seem like the three teams were on same form going into the playoffs.

Last two games TFC lost both, scoring 1 goal, and conceding 4.
Last two games Portland won both, scoring 9 goals, and conceding 3.
Last two games the Crew won both, scoring 7 goals and conceding 0.

See what I just did there?

Also can you point out the benefit of easing up to play an extra game? No one is saying to rush players back, but if you don't finish top 2, you play an extra game. It will be one game far more competitive than the last four matches you could have used to avoid that match all together. Finish 5th or 6th and that extra game is away, and we know how stats favour the away teams in MLS, right?

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Originally Posted by PAOK17

Not saying you're completely wrong but at the same time I really enjoyed how you skewed the stats to make it seem like the three teams were on same form going into the playoffs.

Last two games TFC lost both, scoring 1 goal, and conceding 4.
Last two games Portland won both, scoring 9 goals, and conceding 3.
Last two games the Crew won both, scoring 7 goals and conceding 0.

See what I just did there?

Also can you point out the benefit of easing up to play an extra game? No one is saying to rush players back, but if you don't finish top 2, you play an extra game. It will be one game far more competitive than the last four matches you could have used to avoid that match all together. Finish 5th or 6th and that extra game is away, and we know how stats favour the away teams in MLS, right?

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Rookie's logic is the same Toronto Calculus that has the Leafs throwing games to get the last place overall and the first draft pick. Vanney needs to light a fire under Bradley and manage his play properly.

Theory: SG has a injury but it's playable/can wait until off season to address:

Check out this tweet at https://twitter.com/mitchelltierney/status/779825318823469057

Agree with a lot of the discussion around slow movement and play in the midfield. Our starting 4 midfielder did not have a lot of quickness. Other than OSO all have average to below average speed. As soon as we brought in Delgado we opened them up. I was surprised about the starting midfield, especially putting Cheyrou on the right. However, they have to play 3 games this week and Vanney has to spread the players out to not burn anybody out.

Seba Factor: A lot of teams are pressing us high which is creating a lot of problems for us moving the ball. Teams are not afraid to commit players forward to press since there is no Seba threat. Seba is such a threat one on one or even one on two that teams are reluctant to commit players forward to press or attack. I thing even more so on the attack as the opposition half backs are not afraid to push forward. The return of Seba and in form will be necessary for the team to go deep in the playoffs, his meet presence forces clubs to drop deep and opens there field up for our midfield.

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Originally Posted by SKB

Agree with a lot of the discussion around slow movement and play in the midfield. Our starting 4 midfielder did not have a lot of quickness. Other than OSO all have average to below average speed. As soon as we brought in Delgado we opened them up. I was surprised about the starting midfield, especially putting Cheyrou on the right. However, they have to play 3 games this week and Vanney has to spread the players out to not burn anybody out.

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Wheeler said post game that he thinks our best formation is a 3-5-2 with Cheyrou , Bradley in a double pivot in the middle. It is an interesting observation. There is something off right now for sure

Small thing, but on their goal the guy came back from a slightly offside position to be played on side by Hagglund. The other linesman had been calling that on TFC all the first half, at least twice on Hamilton and once on Altidore. For me it's not offside but the inconsistency is maddening

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Originally Posted by PAOK17

Not saying you're completely wrong but at the same time I really enjoyed how you skewed the stats to make it seem like the three teams were on same form going into the playoffs.

Last two games TFC lost both, scoring 1 goal, and conceding 4.
Last two games Portland won both, scoring 9 goals, and conceding 3.
Last two games the Crew won both, scoring 7 goals and conceding 0.

See what I just did there?

Also can you point out the benefit of easing up to play an extra game? No one is saying to rush players back, but if you don't finish top 2, you play an extra game. It will be one game far more competitive than the last four matches you could have used to avoid that match all together. Finish 5th or 6th and that extra game is away, and we know how stats favour the away teams in MLS, right?

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Point regarding TFC and Portland etc was simply to highlight that streaks mean nothing as the games are independent events.

As for finishing, I'm sure it's nice. Getting the bye to the 2nd round is good ... but not at all costs. Particularly since we are all tied up at the top and have a game in hand on both sides.

Vanney will be judged based on how far we go not whether we finish 2nd or 3rd. Shield isn't really realistic so it's no wonder we are seeing conservative decisions made with the playoffs in mind.

Osorio was mostly poor in this game, but he was brilliant on our goal. That's why it's so frustrating to watch him sometimes, he has the ability to be doing that every game, but it's like he's afraid to try to push the game until we really need to push it. Once he gets in the final third he needs to stop worrying about maintaining possession and try to make things happen, whether that's playing a riskier pass or beating his man.

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Originally Posted by stevep

not really true statement, even with a home game in the first round by placing 3rd of 4th, based on my estimating of what the betting odds will be
we have about a 33% chance of losing that first game also you do not get the rest factor as you have to play really quickly again in the second round games and you would have to play a far better opponent possibly New York red bulls vs say philadelphia
getting first or second place is really important.

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upon calculation i have estimated the probability of reaching the final series in the eastern conference is:
62% if tfc finishes first or second
33% if tfc finishes third

close to double your odds if you finish the season at first or second

so upon further thought finishing first or second is really important
i don't think there is any real benefit to finishing first vs second is there?

^ is the position of finish the most important variable there (without checking your math)?

Or is the fact that good teams generally finish atop the standings and as a result of being a good team, tend to win some playoff games?

Our situation is that the presumptive MLS MVP is injured. Finishing up a place or two won't change the nature of the squad but losing him would.

Both teams looked relatively slow and uneasy on the pitch yesterday; but forget about the missed PK opportunity - TFC didn't strike me as a team interested in winning the Supporters Shield. I was probably mostly unimpressed with Bradley, to be honest. Wish Gio was back, but we cant play like a team that won't pick up three points without him.

This Giovinco-less team has not looked convincing for the past 3 games with 1 win and 2 draws. That 1 win also came from a gifted blunder from a bottom table team.

Seba holds the key to a deep playoff run. Without hm, this team is sent packing early.

Also, a lot of people here giving Bradley some flak. Yeah sure, he had a bad game, but that doesn't sum up his entire season. All players have their days and this was one of Bradleys.

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Originally Posted by notthesun

Osorio was mostly poor in this game, but he was brilliant on our goal. That's why it's so frustrating to watch him sometimes, he has the ability to be doing that every game, but it's like he's afraid to try to push the game until we really need to push it. Once he gets in the final third he needs to stop worrying about maintaining possession and try to make things happen, whether that's playing a riskier pass or beating his man.

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i saw him do that all game. Where he was poor was doing that ( taking risks and trying to beat his man ) was in our end. Vanney will speak to him about that I am sure.

i think they have some selection issues in midfield. Delgado was terrible last game, Johnson this one, and Cheyrou needs to play at the base of the diamond. That's why Wheelers idea about the three five two bears some thought. With a Bradley - Cheyro - Osorio triangle in the middle of the five.

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Originally Posted by MightyDM

Wheeler said post game that he thinks our best formation is a 3-5-2 with Cheyrou , Bradley in a double pivot in the middle. It is an interesting observation. There is something off right now for sure

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That's a 3-4-1-2 that morphs into a 5-2-1-2 as the two wide players are really WB's.

Wheeler has been talking about the 3-5-2 since March. Against a 4-2-3-1 with 2 holding DM's, all that does is spread their 3 more advance mids out. Our issue as others have said is little to no movement off the ball in the pocket in order to break the press. Couple that with nobody willing to pass to the pocket from deep and we don't get the out of the press pass.


Without Seba, I think we should be trying a 4-2-3-1 with Cheyrou/Johnson beside Bradley and Lovitz and Delgado on the outside of Osorio/Chapman.

Hamilton does pretty good for his lack of experience at this level and takes up space and all; but, he doesn't really have to be accounted for by DM's and defensively, that second forward position was not as important as another midfield. Our forwards both came back on wide positions a lot yesterday.

- I took into account the assumed betting odds converted to probabilities if gio is on the team come playoff time
- with the extra game you have to play you could lose that game, that brings the odds down and
yes you would play a worse team with 7 days rest vs either one of the two New Yorks on 3 days rest

i don't want to think about gio not being on the team come playoff time so i never calculated that one.
if we finish 3rd the two new yorks will be 1 and 2

Ya, you see, the idea that all playoff games and scenarios are the same is just...well...wrong.

If we finish 1st, we are pretty much guaranteed to get one of Philly, NER, Montreal or DCU in our first playoff encounter, the second round.

If we finish 2nd, we are likely to face a New York team in the second round (cause nobody is going to win a one off playoff game in Yankee Stadium or Red Bull arena)

Does anybody really want to finish 3rd and go up against Montreal in a one off midweek game? Does anybody think that's a good idea worth resting players for?


No, in any endeavour you want the best possible scenario. And in our case, that's finish first and avoid the tougher teams as long as possible.

Rest is for Christmas.

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Originally Posted by OgtheDim

That's a 3-4-1-2 that morphs into a 5-2-1-2 as the two wide players are really WB's.

Wheeler has been talking about the 3-5-2 since March. Against a 4-2-3-1 with 2 holding DM's, all that does is spread their 3 more advance mids out. Our issue as others have said is little to no movement off the ball in the pocket in order to break the press. Couple that with nobody willing to pass to the pocket from deep and we don't get the out of the press pass.


Without Seba, I think we should be trying a 4-2-3-1 with Cheyrou/Johnson beside Bradley and Lovitz and Delgado on the outside of Osorio/Chapman.

Hamilton does pretty good for his lack of experience at this level and takes up space and all; but, he doesn't really have to be accounted for by DM's and defensively, that second forward position was not as important as another midfield. Our forwards both came back on wide positions a lot yesterday.

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You have a point on this. But with Seba back the front has to be a 2.

i like the 4-2-3-1 with Cheyrou and Bradley. I'd put Lovitz and Johnson or Johnson and Endoh right now outside Oso. We need a bit more movement and pace up there. Stagnant at the moment.

with Seba back, will be quite interesting to see what Vanney does.

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Originally Posted by OgtheDim

Ya, you see, the idea that all playoff games and scenarios are the same is just...well...wrong.

If we finish 1st, we are pretty much guaranteed to get one of Philly, NER, Montreal or DCU in our first playoff encounter, the second round.

If we finish 2nd, we are likely to face a New York team in the second round (cause nobody is going to win a one off playoff game in Yankee Stadium or Red Bull arena)

Does anybody really want to finish 3rd and go up against Montreal in a one off midweek game? Does anybody think that's a good idea worth resting players for?

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Interesting in both your scenarios there is a chance we face Montreal or another low seed. Either as a knockout game or as a home and home.

Would you rather face them with or without Giovinco?

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Rest is for Christmas.

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It's also good for quadriceps and abductor strains.

You're a funny dude, Pookie.

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Originally Posted by OgtheDim

Ya, you see, the idea that all playoff games and scenarios are the same is just...well...wrong.

If we finish 1st, we are pretty much guaranteed to get one of Philly, NER, Montreal or DCU in our first playoff encounter, the second round.

If we finish 2nd, we are likely to face a New York team in the second round (cause nobody is going to win a one off playoff game in Yankee Stadium or Red Bull arena)

Does anybody really want to finish 3rd and go up against Montreal in a one off midweek game? Does anybody think that's a good idea worth resting players for?


No, in any endeavour you want the best possible scenario. And in our case, that's finish first and avoid the tougher teams as long as possible.

Rest is for Christmas.

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never thought of that regarding 1st vs 2nd place, good one
plus i despise games at yankee stadium

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Originally Posted by Pookie

Interesting in both your scenarios there is a chance we face Montreal or another low seed. Either as a knockout game or as a home and home.

Would you rather face them with or without Giovinco?



It's also good for quadriceps and abductor strains.

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You were saying these games was basically pretraining for the playoffs. I'm just arguing it ain't like that.

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Originally Posted by Pookie

Interesting in both your scenarios there is a chance we face Montreal or another low seed. Either as a knockout game or as a home and home.

Would you rather face them with or without Giovinco?



It's also good for quadriceps and abductor strains.

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Pookie, no one here is saying that we rush and risk anyone. If Giovinco is fit to play, he plays. If not, he doesn't. I think you need to relax on the hypothetical extreme. Isn't there an international break in a few weeks? And another one during the playoffs? I'm more concerned losing Altidore and Bradley to injury while they play for the US because well it always seems to happen.

What we are saying is that the team is at a disadvantage to finish 3rd to 6th due to having to play an extra game (that could go into extra time) and then playing a tougher team in the following round with short rest. To finish in the top 2, they don't even need to go all out in all of their games. Had they won their last two games, it probably would have already been sealed.

Playing an extra game may not be a bad thing. Last night, fatigue seemed less of a factor than lack of concentration.
The jets going over was the highlight of the game. The 0:1 was a sweetly chipped ball that Bradley's repeatedly tried and failed at.
While the RBNY tie felt like a win, this game was a bit humbling.

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Originally Posted by ogthedim

ya, you see, the idea that all playoff games and scenarios are the same is just...well...wrong.

If we finish 1st, we are pretty much guaranteed to get one of philly, ner, montreal or dcu in our first playoff encounter, the second round.

If we finish 2nd, we are likely to face a new york team in the second round (cause nobody is going to win a one off playoff game in yankee stadium or red bull arena)

does anybody really want to finish 3rd and go up against montreal in a one off midweek game? Does anybody think that's a good idea worth resting players for?


No, in any endeavour you want the best possible scenario. And in our case, that's finish first and avoid the tougher teams as long as possible.

Rest is for christmas.

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this!!! 100%

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Originally Posted by PAOK17

Pookie, no one here is saying that we rush and risk anyone. If Giovinco is fit to play, he plays. If not, he doesn't. I think you need to relax on the hypothetical extreme. Isn't there an international break in a few weeks? And another one during the playoffs? I'm more concerned losing Altidore and Bradley to injury while they play for the US because well it always seems to happen.

What we are saying is that the team is at a disadvantage to finish 3rd to 6th due to having to play an extra game (that could go into extra time) and then playing a tougher team in the following round with short rest. To finish in the top 2, they don't even need to go all out in all of their games. Had they won their last two games, it probably would have already been sealed.

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Just to be clear, I am not suggesting they play games in a style that gives Declan Hill an idea for a new book.

I am saying they simply adopt caution. Rest players who may be on the cusp of over use and don't rush back other guys. Your Bradley and Altidore examples are prime reasons as to why they might want to reduce some minutes in the lead up to the intentional break.

Ironic to me that the fan base generally accepted the concept of resting players when we were chasing Canadian Championships midweek. Quite a few polls suggested people generally agreed with playing non starters and saving up for the playoff push. Yes, winning was nice but not the main goal.

Same story here. Already have the playoffs. Need to be cautious to give the best shot at the Cup.