MLS Match Day 25 - Nashville @ TFC Saturday Sept 18 7:38pm - Truth Is

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Originally Posted by Auzzy

Fish? LOL. That's the sign of a team with major problems at CB and at striker, bringing a real lack of stability. Plus lots of problems with motivation, tactics and fitness at certain times. Despite all the misery on the field for TFC this year, there's a ton of parity in the league. TFC is MUCH closer to NE in quality than is the case for Norwich / Man City; plus TFC actually has the higher salary budget. Any team can beat any other team in MLS on a given night; lots of players and coaches that came to MLS from Europe and elsewhere around the world have commented on that.

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You don’t know it but you have contradicted yourself
If there is such parity we should not be 38 points away from first place and 18 points away from the middle of the pack
Statistically not possible

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Originally Posted by OgtheDim

FWIW

xG time stamps

Check out this tweet at https://twitter.com/GameFlowxPG/status/1439702014078894088

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This looks extremely even overall!

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Originally Posted by stevep

You don’t know it but you have contradicted yourself
If there is such parity we should not be 38 points away from first place and 18 points away from the middle of the pack
Statistically not possible

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Are you seriously questioning whether there is more parity in MLS than in the Premier League? Many experts have commented that anyone can beat anyone on a given day in MLS. Surely there are lots of stats about that. Also about the stronger home-team effect in MLS. Plus TFC is extremely inconsistent these days, with Perez trying all kinds things and seeing what sticks. Last two games something worked. In addition the motivation, effort and focus of the TFC players has varied massively between games this season. TFC also beat first-place New England at Gillette Stadium in July. Finally Nashville is bad away from home this year: despite being 2nd in the conference, their away record is 2-3-5.

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Originally Posted by Auzzy

Are you seriously questioning whether there is more parity in MLS than in the Premier League? Many experts have commented that anyone can beat anyone on a given day in MLS. Surely there are lots of stats about that. Also about the stronger home-team effect in MLS. Plus TFC is extremely inconsistent these days, with Perez trying all kinds things and seeing what sticks. Last two games something worked. In addition the motivation, effort and focus of the TFC players has varied massively between games this season. TFC also beat first-place New England at Gillette Stadium in July. Finally Nashville is bad away from home this year: despite being 2nd in the conference, their away record is 2-3-5.

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Using a binomial probability applet calculator
Tfc has played 25 games in a parity league
So I used 50% chance to win or lose any given game in a parity league ( your words)
Tfc has 18 pts. 18 pts equals 6 wins (6x3)

N=25
X=6
P=0.5

What you get is this
I’m a parity league the probability of one team only having 6 wins is 5/1000

Still don’t think it’s fishy?


https://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/~mb...plets/bin.html

Quote:

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Originally Posted by stevep

Using a binomial probability applet calculator
Tfc has played 25 games in a parity league
So I used 50% chance to win or lose any given game in a parity league ( your words)
Tfc has 18 pts. 18 pts equals 6 wins (6x3)

N=25
X=6
P=0.5

What you get is this
I’m a parity league the probability of one team only having 6 wins is 5/1000

Still don’t think it’s fishy?


https://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/~mb...plets/bin.html

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chances of getting hit by lightning aren't great, but that still happens too. Just means we are one of those unlucky 5 this time around. It doesn't help if you decide to do silly things during those storms like go out and play golf therefore increasing your odds of getting hit (or in our case hire a manager that wants to try and press at the beginning of the season with a team that isn't suited for that). Or maybe increase the odds further by standing under the tallest tree outside (or again in our case playing half our season away from home in another country, in another team's stadium. and start the season with 9 games in 9 different stadiums).

I'm not saying your point isn't valid, for sure it's fishy that we have such decent players and we are this low in the table...but also saying that it's a possibility.

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Originally Posted by 613reppingTFC

chances of getting hit by lightning aren't great, but that still happens too. Just means we are one of those unlucky 5 this time around. It doesn't help if you decide to do silly things during those storms like go out and play golf therefore increasing your odds of getting hit (or in our case hire a manager that wants to try and press at the beginning of the season with a team that isn't suited for that). Or maybe increase the odds further by standing under the tallest tree outside (or again in our case playing half our season away from home in another country, in another team's stadium. and start the season with 9 games in 9 different stadiums).

I'm not saying your point isn't valid, for sure it's fishy that we have such decent players and we are this low in the table...but also saying that it's a possibility.

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A few other observations

Looking at the standings it is clear and obvious that this is a parity league
I’m 2020 we were in the third standard deviation on the right of the curve and in 2021 we are 3 standard deviations on the left of the curve with essentially the same players
New England is 3 standard deviations to the right on the curve and Nashville has just barely made it to 2 standard deviations on the right of the curve and somehow a team 3 standard deviations (tfc) to the left on the curve manages to beat those two teams

Also as a footnote the 2020 MLS MVP and arguably an Ironman in 2020 barely plays in 2021