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View Full Version : Jason de Vos blog: The protected 11 - who will they be?



johnmolinaro
10-24-2008, 10:58 AM
http://www.cbc.ca/sports/blogs/2008/10/the_protected_11_who_will_they.html

Parkdale
10-24-2008, 11:00 AM
wow.... that didn't take long. They haven't played the last game and we're into off-season news. Good insights in the article.

granted we were talking about it here last week, but hey... we're setting the pace.


*disagree stongly about his thoughts on Harmse though.

olegunnar
10-24-2008, 11:10 AM
I think the article is seriously flawed in that it doesn't take into account Seattle's needs and requirements and how that would impact who they selected and therefore who we should protect.

Why on earth would they select Sutton? A $157,000 International Keeper when they have Keller?

Why would Seattle select Ricketts over Johann Smith? A $200K+ international winger over a domestic player?

I think the real story is how one would put together the list when considering all the factors. It's not a best 11 exercise and that's how and why it's generated so much debate already on the boards.

olegunnar
10-24-2008, 11:16 AM
You know what would be interesting?

A story on how Mo gambled with leaving Pozniak unprotected last year and got burned, and if that experience has affected Mo's strategy this year.

Or even a general article on Mo's 2nd go around with expansion drafts and protection lists. Is he doing the same thing this time or has his experience made him tweak his strategy.

Parkdale
10-24-2008, 11:18 AM
Why would Seattle select Ricketts over Johann Smith? A $200K+ international winger over a domestic player?


very good point.

H Bomb
10-24-2008, 11:20 AM
^ Well Ricketts has played in leagues for the last few years and did score goals for us this year and at times was our best player. Johann Smith is fast, and set up one goal in about 2 hours of playing time.

Parkdale
10-24-2008, 11:22 AM
You know what would be interesting?



or a story on how planning for an expansion draft is becoming the norm in this league. This will be the 3rd season in a row with an expansion draft (I don't think they was one in 2005, because that was when Houston got a team from San Jose) and it looks like there's a few years of expansion coming. Until the league hits 18 teams in 2011, expansion drafts are part of the game.

olegunnar
10-24-2008, 11:24 AM
^ Well Ricketts has played in leagues for the last few years and did score goals for us this year and at times was our best player. Johann Smith is fast, and set up one goal in about 2 hours of playing time.

I think the point is, the MLS is a league with a salary cap and roster restrictions.

All things being equal at this point in time I don't think many people would take Smith over Ricketts, but clubs have to allocate their cap space and roster spots judiciously, or else they end up with unbalanced rosters like the LAG.

olegunnar
10-24-2008, 11:29 AM
or a story on how planning for an expansion draft is becoming the norm in this league. This will be the 3rd season in a row with an expansion draft (I don't think they was one in 2005, because that was when Houston got a team from San Jose) and it looks like there's a few years of expansion coming. Until the league hits 18 teams in 2011, expansion drafts are part of the game.


That's a really good point.

I guess it's too soon to tell, but it would be interesting to see how USL teams handle the transition to MLS when they're awarded expansion franchises. For example Seattle isn't keeping everyone and they have the benefit of an expansion draft.
Would potential expansion teams Miami, Montreal and Vancouver automatically go the same route? Or would they keep their teams intact. I wonder what the benefits/negatives/legalities (passing ownership of contracts from club to league) would be to each strategy.

arsenal
10-24-2008, 11:33 AM
http://www.cbc.ca/sports/blogs/2008/10/the_protected_11_who_will_they.html

Have they changed the rules for the expansion draft? There seems to be quite a few international players on his unprotected players list. And he seems to neglect the fact that Seattle has signed Keller and is not looking for a starting keeper.

Ossington Mental Youth
10-24-2008, 11:33 AM
I dunno, Harmse (who i hate, or hated) has been solid in the CB position.
Its a tough call. I guess i gotta see who leaves and who stays.
I hate this expansion shit.
Prevents any sort of depth.
Granted Seattle might not pick anything from us.

Ossington Mental Youth
10-24-2008, 11:34 AM
Have they changed the rules for the expansion draft? There seems to be quite a few international players on his unprotected players list. And he seems to neglect the fact that Seattle has signed Keller and is not looking for a starting keeper.

also signed their current goalie as back up.

TFC OZZ
10-24-2008, 11:42 AM
Agree strongly with regards to his thoughts on Harmse.

King Jeff
10-24-2008, 11:48 AM
I think the article is seriously flawed in that it doesn't take into account Seattle's needs and requirements and how that would impact who they selected and therefore who we should protect.

Why on earth would they select Sutton? A $157,000 International Keeper when they have Keller?

Why would Seattle select Ricketts over Johann Smith? A $200K+ international winger over a domestic player?

I think the real story is how one would put together the list when considering all the factors. It's not a best 11 exercise and that's how and why it's generated so much debate already on the boards.

I suppose his argument is that you just accumulate as many assets as you can during the expansion draft and deal with the roster requirements later. Even if Seattle doesn't need Sutton, which they don't, they would probably be able to flip him to another team in exchange for something they do need.

scooter
10-24-2008, 11:53 AM
harmse is a tough call--he still is a red card waiting to happen
maybe they will take ruiz
jury is really out on marco velez he has had his moments of glory
i really think we should protect johann smith he has great potential with his speed

other than that i agree with all the rest

this is a sickness one game still left and i cant wait till next year

Wooster_TFC
10-24-2008, 11:56 AM
I suppose his argument is that you just accumulate as many assets as you can during the expansion draft and deal with the roster requirements later. Even if Seattle doesn't need Sutton, which they don't, they would probably be able to flip him to another team in exchange for something they do need.

I think the real question is who would want Sutton? As much as he is a great shot-stopper, I don't think he warrants being a starter on any other team in MLS due to the fact that he would end up being an International. In that case, the real question becomes whether or not MoJo and JC are comfortable with either having Edwards as the starter, or picking up another starter.

Yes you accumulate assets, but you try and accumulate assets that are worth something. If Seattle were to pick up Sutton, I'm betting they would get stuck with him.

joel
10-24-2008, 12:01 PM
leave sutton unprotected and keep johann smith

Parkdale
10-24-2008, 12:03 PM
I think the real question is who would want Sutton? As much as he is a great shot-stopper, I don't think he warrants being a starter on any other team in MLS due to the fact that he would end up being an International. In that case, the real question becomes whether or not MoJo and JC are comfortable with either having Edwards as the starter, or picking up another starter.

Yes you accumulate assets, but you try and accumulate assets that are worth something. If Seattle were to pick up Sutton, I'm betting they would get stuck with him.


just wait for Montreal's expansion bid. The would take Sutton in a second.

olegunnar
10-24-2008, 12:11 PM
http://www.mlsplayers.org/files/9_7_08_salary_info_alpha.pdf

Busch makes $80
Cronin makes $75
Hartman makes $150
Hesmer $70
Reis $161
Rimando$92
Sala $130
Onstead $173
Cannon $213

Sutton $150.

Sutton with his International status and his salary will play for us...or in the USL. It's pointless protecting him.
He's the 4th highest paid keeper in the league. He's obviously got a good agent.

sully
10-24-2008, 12:20 PM
leave sutton unprotected and keep johann smith

I'd keep Johann Smith over Marshall..

ensco
10-24-2008, 12:39 PM
It just seems to me that US MLS teams will be less interested in Sutton or Nana because they are internationals.

Not sure I would leave Nana unprotected, though.

rocker
10-24-2008, 12:52 PM
if a team selects a DEV player he must be given a senior contract. with nana, they'd be offering a 19 year old international, who has never played on a senior roster, a senior contract and one of those few INT spots. that's probably too risky for Seattle.
remember, we see Nana and rate him highly, but Seattle have barely seen the kid and would have to dedicate a spot to him that's scarce. i think they'll have their eyes on young Americans instead. i'm sure there will be some young american defenders of a similar age who they might, if need be, take a chance on.

regarding the kids, thankfully Ibby is protected thanks to his GA spot... nobody can grab him.

Billy the kid
10-24-2008, 12:54 PM
What about Ibby Ibrahim. Is he protected because he is generation addidas. You've got to figure monetarily he is worth alot if he were to get sold. I know his old team gets a cut but still. Aside from that he's a good player.

rocker
10-24-2008, 01:01 PM
ya Ibby is protected as generation adidas.

again regarding Nana -- given the players that could be left open in the draft, I think he has no chance of leaving. If they leave Velez or Johann or Edwards, I'm sure one of those guys would get picked over Nana.... more experience, more mature... and they qualify as Americans.

Nuvinho
10-24-2008, 01:27 PM
mlsintoronto said that any developmental players can be selected, but if they are selected, Seattle has to offer them a senior contract........as rocker pointed out as well (sorry, only saw your post after I posted)

I don't think also that Nana will be selected, if he is, they will trade him back to us.

Wooster_TFC
10-24-2008, 02:31 PM
just wait for Montreal's expansion bid. The would take Sutton in a second.

Are we talking about Montreal right now? No, we are talking about what the options are if Seattle took him.

Realistically, Seattle wouldn't want him on their team since they have Keller and their backup already signed. Clearly Keller's going to be the starter and you don't want an International with an 150k cap hit as your backup keeper.

So, the next option is they pick Sutton up with the intention to trade him back for something. The real thing is, Sutton isn't worth much to any team but Toronto, since again, an International 150k cap hit for a keeper who's a great shot blocked but not really good at anything else is too much to take. So, the real question remains, is Toronto comfortable losing one of their two keepers?

Heck, looking at it from this standpoint, I'd almost want to protect Edwards before I protect Sutton since Edwards is actually worth something to other teams. If Seattle were to pick Sutton, they'd be dealing from a position of weakness, since they would have to get rid of him.

Wooster_TFC
10-24-2008, 02:35 PM
You know what would be interesting?

A story on how Mo gambled with leaving Pozniak unprotected last year and got burned, and if that experience has affected Mo's strategy this year.

Or even a general article on Mo's 2nd go around with expansion drafts and protection lists. Is he doing the same thing this time or has his experience made him tweak his strategy.

You really think "losing" Pozniak would modify his strategy? As much as people hated to see him go, we had the opportunity to get him back for next to nothing if the rumors are true, and we passed. Pozniak would not make our midfield, and I doubt would have played more than either Smith, Rosenlund, or Harmse. Heck he probably wouldn't have played at all. Mo was probably chortling when San Jose picked up Pozniak and then he was gone halfway through the season for almost no gain to San Jose. There's a reason Mo has stockpiled International spots, it's so we don't get stuck with another Braz or Reda simply because we need to get Canadians, OR even worse, get ripped a new one in a trade or expansion draft because someone has a player (canadian) that we NEED instead of want.

jloome
10-24-2008, 04:37 PM
Tough, tough calls...

I think current salaries have to play into this.

• With Robbo still negotiating and his money so high, we should leave him unprotected. Seattle might take him, but the smart money would be on them a) assuming a DM isn't worth that much of a salary hit and b) guessing he might split to Europe before they can cut a deal ( ala Clarence Goodson last season with San Jose).

• Danny D will be signed to a coaching contract before it becomes an issue.

• Harmse is versatile and Canadian, and showed well at centre half (minus one major blunder.) I actually don't think he was that bad, after his first three appearances, as a backup midfielder either.

• Nana has a major future. If we leave him unprotected they'll take him, nationality notwithstanding.

• Marshall will be taken if unprotected. He's a solid second centre half, as De Vos argues. I say we keep him, but leave Velez unprotected.

• Johann Smith has major promise for a kid, and we should keep him.

• Ruiz is out of contract shortly and hasn't shown enough to stay.

• Freeman is leaving in January, so we leave him unprotected now if possible, knowing full well no one will take him because he's already got an agreement to sign in Norway.

• Gala is good enough now to become a backup, despite his age, and we should take the minor salary implication hit to do so by protecting him.

• James looks way out of his league and not smart enough a footballer for this level. He's also a young guy, so it's too early to write him off, and you want to rotect him, because at the least some american team will want him in trade. But Rosenlund seems far more ready for this level and a capable backup to Guevara. So we keep Tyler.

That would leave our protected list as :

• Barrett
• Ricketts
• Guevara
• Harmse
• Brennan
• Marshall
• Wynne
• Attakora
• Gala
• Rosenlund
• Jo. Smith

kshep
10-24-2008, 04:55 PM
We don't need Edwards, we need to sign Monsalve to a decent contract.

ccopela
10-24-2008, 05:46 PM
Should keep in mind that Marco Velez has a history in Seattle so they might be more willing to sign a familiar face. I have no idea how he left things in Seattle but if he impressed at all while he was there he could get picked up, which makes it less likely that other players will get picked.

jloome
10-24-2008, 06:08 PM
Tough, tough calls...

I think current salaries have to play into this.

• With Robbo still negotiating and his money so high, we should leave him unprotected. Seattle might take him, but the smart money would be on them a) assuming a DM isn't worth that much of a salary hit and b) guessing he might split to Europe before they can cut a deal ( ala Clarence Goodson last season with San Jose).

• Danny D will be signed to a coaching contract before it becomes an issue.

• Harmse is versatile and Canadian, and showed well at centre half (minus one major blunder.) I actually don't think he was that bad, after his first three appearances, as a backup midfielder either.

• Nana has a major future. If we leave him unprotected they'll take him, nationality notwithstanding.

• Marshall will be taken if unprotected. He's a solid second centre half, as De Vos argues. I say we keep him, but leave Velez unprotected.

• Johann Smith has major promise for a kid, and we should keep him.

• Ruiz is out of contract shortly and hasn't shown enough to stay.

• Freeman is leaving in January, so we leave him unprotected now if possible, knowing full well no one will take him because he's already got an agreement to sign in Norway.

• Gala is good enough now to become a backup, despite his age, and we should take the minor salary implication hit to do so by protecting him.

• James looks way out of his league and not smart enough a footballer for this level. He's also a young guy, so it's too early to write him off, and you want to rotect him, because at the least some american team will want him in trade. But Rosenlund seems far more ready for this level and a capable backup to Guevara. So we keep Tyler.

That would leave our protected list as :

• Barrett
• Ricketts
• Guevara
• Harmse
• Brennan
• Marshall
• Wynne
• Attakora
• Gala
• Rosenlund
• Jo. Smith


Oops. I missed Sutton. Bye by Gabe (list-wise), I guess.

GeorgeB
10-24-2008, 06:17 PM
maybe Robbo needs to leave for Guevara to run the show like he does for honduras ?

S_D
10-24-2008, 06:58 PM
Have they changed the rules for the expansion draft? There seems to be quite a few international players on his unprotected players list.

I haven't seen anything about it yet. I am just assuming that it will be the same as the last expansion drafts. Have to protect all your internationals but 1. If this ends up being the case, he is going tohave to rework his protected list.

Keegan
10-24-2008, 10:47 PM
Protect Dunivant and Marshall?

May I ask WHY? Dunivant is back up left back and American, Marshall is international and OLDER and not getting any better!

Nuvinho
10-24-2008, 11:04 PM
Protect Dunivant and Marshall?

May I ask WHY? Dunivant is back up left back and American, Marshall is international and OLDER and not getting any better!

Both will be able to get a decent return in trades. Dunny is probably extremely valuable, since he plays multiple positions, and if we leave him unprotected, i'm 100% sure that Seattle will select him.